Article 50 Discussion

[citizenB]

Brexit is not a definite and people will have to wait and see what happens.

 

In Germany people are getting fed up with immigration and Germany having to support the EU with so much money, with the possibility that they will have to bankroll tne EU much more in future years.

 

In Hungary they have a current protest going on sponsored by their government not to accept the EU quota requirement on migrants.

 

The same is happening in many countries. A backlash against the EU and pressures caused by migration.

 

It is quite possible that the EU will have to accept major reforms and a new treaty. This might happen before any Brexit and then the government will be faced with a problem. It is law in the UK to hold a referendum on EU treaties and if the EU were to produce a new EU treaty, there would have to be a new referendum.

 

 

I suspect that TM is waiting on the elections due in some EU countries over the next few months - if the current leaders are forced out, then the new leaders might have a different perspective on Europe themselves.

[fletch70]

There have been some interesting articles in the Guardian recently about Brexit , I do think Cit B is probably correct, a lot will depend on Italy and France.

 

My new worry is we have had two national disasters ( Brexit and Bake off) , what will be the 3rd? Maybe Trump winning in November - god help us all

[citizenB]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but can be moved if necessary.

 

 

I see that TM is facing another rebellion in respect of Brexit and the consensus is that NO deal will be better than a BAD deal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/17/theresa-may-faces-rebellion-as-tory-mps-launch-new-hard-brexit-c/

 

 

The single market is “the world’s least successful economic zone”, which ties businesses up in regulations regardless of whether they trade with other European countries, the group warns.

 

The Leave Means Leave report also says that it is a “fallacy” that membership of the single market is required in order for Britain to trade with it. China and America are not members of the EU’s single market but they still enjoy “access” to it because their trading rules are acceptable to European countries, the report says.

 

Britain would be in the same position and would be likely to enjoy better terms, with no new tariffs being added to exports, it adds. “It is in the EU’s interest to agree a zero tariff deal with the UK simply because it sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU,” the report says.

 

“However, if they refuse to do so within a reasonable timeframe, the UK should leave the EU without a formal agreement

 

 

 

 

I googled the leader of the "rebellion", Richard Tice and found an article from April 2015 in respect of scaremongering dished out by the remain campaign.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/04/richard-tice.html

 

 

One of the links to a further Article "Scaremongering" is a very good read

http://www.globalbritain.co.uk/sites/default/files/GB%20Report%20The%20Scaremongers.pdf

[unclebulgaria67]

CB

 

It is a question of who you believe.

 

If you think about it, why are the US and Canada looking to do a new trade deal with the EU, if the current situation is so attractive to them ? They obviously feel that there are barriers to trade that make it difficult for some of their companies.

 

The EU is still a very important market of over 500 consumers and given that EU consumers have more money than those in Asia, South America, companies in other parts of the world want to trade on favourable terms. China makes it very difficult for some companies to trade there and they can make many products for their own market.

 

A hard Brexit would be bad for the UK, mainly because the City of London does a lot of trading on behalf of other EU countries. Quite a lot of this trading would shift to Paris, Frankfurt etc. Some Banks have already shifted some jobs. If you lose some of this income for UK Treasury, this means you have to make up for this loss in income. Also there are thousands of businesses based in the UK who trade across the EU and it would make it very difficult. For example, near where i live there are major employers who produce products which are transported to EU mainland. They are not 100% British owned and where they can move production to EU mainland, they will do, if it makes sense to do so.

[tobyjugg2]

CB

 

It is a question of who you believe.

 

If you think about it, why are the US and Canada looking to do a new trade deal with the EU, if the current situation is so attractive to them ? They obviously feel that there are barriers to trade that make it difficult for some of their companies.

 

The EU is still a very important market of over 500 consumers and given that EU consumers have more money than those in Asia, South America, companies in other parts of the world want to trade on favourable terms. China makes it very difficult for some companies to trade there and they can make many products for their own market.

 

A hard Brexit would be bad for the UK, mainly because the City of London does a lot of trading on behalf of other EU countries. Quite a lot of this trading would shift to Paris, Frankfurt etc. Some Banks have already shifted some jobs. If you lose some of this income for UK Treasury, this means you have to make up for this loss in income. Also there are thousands of businesses based in the UK who trade across the EU and it would make it very difficult. For example, near where i live there are major employers who produce products which are transported to EU mainland. They are not 100% British owned and where they can move production to EU mainland, they will do, if it makes sense to do so.

 

Hard Brexit is the only way for Brexit to mean Brexit - simple as that, and that would appear to be what May is doing.

Its the only way to implement Brexit which goes any way to meet the clear CORE expectations of the voters - not that I had or have any confidence that the voters wishes are a prime driver or anything other than means to ends.

 

 

The UK currency is now 15% down with $1.18 now projected as the pounds likely value once Brexit actually starts to kick in - which may be well after the articcle is triggered as nothing will significantly change for some time - something the proven liars of Brexit are spinning as 'theres been none of the fallout'

http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/category/usd-forecast/

 

 

So what - the pounds down - good for exports!

Only good for exports of goods entirely sourced in the UK as it makes them cheaper abroad

 

BAD for imported materials and goods, including any materials bought to MAKE those goods for export, making them cost the manufacturer more to make

 

BAD for holidays abroad, that £1000 holiday will now cost £1150

- and BAD for all the UK companies and jobs which rely on selling and supporting holidays abroad

 

BAD for the UK as our NATIONAL DEBT, which is priced in dollars, has de-facto risen by 15%.

 

 

A number of companies have already announced freezes in UK investment, and some very decidedly UK brands have already announced the beginnings of moves abroad

Hers some of the reality:

https://www.ft.com/content/86d771b6-3bb0-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-companies/

 

 

And a major issue for the government - UK finance passporting is seriously at risk meaning that Financial and services institutions ARE planning moves abroad - which could EASILY reduce the UK's 'money' by 10-25% at a swoop on its own.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/apr/24/uk-economy-seven-things-need-to-know-ons-g7

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37405430

 

 

and following the governments selling of the Uk's future power industry to China and France rather than developing the UK as a world leader in modular nuclear power stations (which it could and SHOULD have done) Whats FAR FAR worse is that we may end up with our Government signing a TTIP agreement with the USA just for some spin headlines, and that will throw our laws and rights into the hands of US corporations, making Brussels at its very worst seem like the good fairy who leaves money under the pillows of children.

 

Just wait until Brexit really does kick in.

[unclebulgaria67]

Brexit will be made up as they go along and i predict trouble ahead.

 

I am 60/40 that it won't happen, but of course the Tories have to look like they are proceeding to implement the referendum vote.

[citizenB]

I am finding it quite confusing. You have so many different opinions being fed back by the media.

 

 

People have to go back on their previous calculations on whether or not the UK is falling fast or improving. Even Christine Legard of the IMF has revised her opinion that the UK would "collapse"!

 

 

So, who do you believe now ? Exports are doing well - the FTSE appears to be picking up.

 

 

What bothers me is that we still have the pessimists who are sitting on their hands crying woe is me and not even considering changing working practice in order to survive. At the same time they are demanding that the Government protect their industries.

[unclebulgaria67]

I am finding it quite confusing. You have so many different opinions being fed back by the media.

 

 

People have to go back on their previous calculations on whether or not the UK is falling fast or improving. Even Christine Legard of the IMF has revised her opinion that the UK would "collapse"!

 

 

So, who do you believe now ? Exports are doing well - the FTSE appears to be picking up.

 

 

What bothers me is that we still have the pessimists who are sitting on their hands crying woe is me and not even considering changing working practice in order to survive. At the same time they are demanding that the Government protect their industries.

 

It is complicated, but i will try to explain. Most of it is to do with the drop in value of Pounds Sterling which has been very sudden since the vote.

 

Manufacturers or any industry buying in bulk from outside the UK in advance would have done so before the Brexit vote. This was when the Pound was strong and therefore their money went further. They have therefore been able to make or supply goods based on a cheaper cost basis, therefore making more profit. These same companies will now have to buy their goods from abroad, based on a lower Pound value and therefore in comparison to foreign competitors their goods will be less competitive from now on. This is not great for their profit margins and obviously jobs etc.

 

A lower Pound value means that foreign investors now see the UK as a better short term investment, which is why you are seeing stock market prices increase. It is not support for the UK, but simply that they can see a good return for investors. If the situation changed, they will start to sell off any shares they have bought.

 

Supermarket prices have started to increase, as most of what we purchase comes from abroad. E.g the flour in your bread etc etc. The UK does not produce enough food to satisfy demand. This should mean that as consumers cut back, that shops make less profit and they then pay less tax, employ fewer people. Also increasing prices will see inflation increase and extra spending for government e.g pensions, benefits, civil service pay rises, increased costs.

 

The service sector e.g financial services, Banking, will be affected because they are trying to compete within the EU and globally. If they are headquartered in London, the won't be very happy with talk of a hard Brexit, with worse access to the EU market and senior staff having Visa issues from working in different countries. Some investment Banks are already shifting jobs elsewhere. Yes Banks have had problems recently, but unfortunately UK plc still earns quite a lot of tax revenue from financial services and would find it difficult to make this up from other sectors.

 

The Brexit vote and subsequent uncertainty will cause problems to the UK economy and business, mostly because of currency instability and long term investment decisions being put off or cut back.

 

My instinct is that it will be a rollercoaster ride for years and negative for the UK economy. The EU will not make it easy and many businesses in the UK will start to put huge pressure on a Tory government. At some point, i think Theresa May will give into business interests and if Brexit happens, it will be of the soft variety with full market access and only minor changes to rights of free movement.

[citizenB]

[citizenB]

Supermarket prices have started to increase, as most of what we purchase comes from abroad. E.g the flour in your bread etc etc. The UK does not produce enough food to satisfy demand.

 

 

We always used to be self sufficient and I find it quite worrying that we do import so much foodstuff from abroad - locally I see farm land littered with cauliflowers, cabbages and other vegetables that are considered "unsuitable" to sell in the supermarkets - perhaps if we stopped wasting so much then we wouldn't need to import so much ? Costs could be kept down by not having the transport costs for foodstuffs produced locally... and if one more person tells me that we use EU workers for farm work because locals don't want to work on the land I will scream. 1000's of hard working local young men and women were laid off as farm workers when gang masters started to "sell farm workers" from the EU and bus them in from Manchester and Birmingham every day. That was until farmers started to provide caravans and landlords were squashing 4 and 5 people into a bedroom !

[unclebulgaria67]

Pound Sterling is freefall overnight to lowest level in 31 years !

 

http://news.sky.com/story/flash-crash-for-pound-to-118-is-surrounded-in-mystery-10608056

 

Those who voted for Brexit will come to regret it, because the UK has to import so much and having a weaker currency will mean that costs will increase. Also UK companies will be a target for takeover, as they are now cheaper to buy.

 

This is bad for consumers, bad for pensioners and bad for the future of the UK economy.

 

Hopefully the Bank of England will take action to support the Pound and we will see the value rise.

[Tawnyowl]

Thanks unclebulgaria67and citizenB for some interesting clear posts.

I wondered why some prices had kept rising in China for my watches for some time.I thought it was demand.

From your link to the pound hitting the lowest for 31 years.

 

First of all the possible reasons given.

Several theories abound as to why but the most likely explanation was a rogue algorithm in an

automated trading system

which triggered a wider sell-off.

 

It happened shortly after the publication of a report by the Financial Times that French president Francois Hollande had demanded a tough stance on Brexit negotiations.

 

IG Markets' analyst Angus Nicholson said it

"looks like it was an algorithm-driven flash crash"

,

can you believe such a thing existed- adding that "given low volumes in the Asian session, it would have forced other algorithms to join in and magnify the fall."

 

Other possible reasons include a so-called 'fat finger' trade - human error.

A fat finger would you believe it.

Now as i have seen in the past couple of weeks the suits,the bankers losing thousands of jobs to automation across Europe, even on Wall Street it seems Automation is beginning to take over the asylum.

I am hoping that soon an automated error will fill up my bank account and i will immediately retire to a tropical island.

 

Just to farms for a minute.

Remembering back in the 70s when times were tough in Geordie land and watching the farms who needed potato pickers pick people up from streets and certain areas then setting off into the country.

Up and down the lanes they went.

Sometimes in hot pursuit were the DWP.i do not know why but they were soon put off when mysteriously trees appeared blocking the lane or a tractor appeared going 2 mph.

Now the thoughts on vegetables rising in price, thank you for the warning.Now heading to spacious grassed area with tiller,given up on spadework.If it has not got an engine,do not use it. Going to plant a crop.

Prepare plan and survive.

Sorry for interrupting your posts but i am finding the thread very interesting.And know i cannot write as well or as clearly as some on these possible problems arising.

Onwards.

[unclebulgaria67]

If you think about it, the Brexit vote was like painting one massive target across the UK inviting speculators to make money. I think George Soros warned about this happening. The same thing happened under the Tories in the early 1990's with the ERM mess, which i think was labelled ' black Wednesday'.

 

If the owners of The Sun, Daily Express and Daily Mail lose loads of money due to them backing Brexit, i will be laughing my socks off. But of course the owners of these are mostly foreign with their money held outside the UK, so they will be insulated against most risks caused by Brexit.

 

Brexit is going to cost the UK tens of billions and mess up the economy for at least a decade. The people who voted for it including a majority of pensioners are going to regret their decision, as it will make their lifes poorer.

[Tawnyowl]

Interesting thoughts,but i personally feel many will be saying i could not be any worse off.

Clearly many voted for Brexit as they had had enough and thought things could not get any worse.

It is said that many council estates who usually do not vote on such issues rose up and said as one,we have had enough of this government and their policies.

Perhaps as much of a protest vote as an exit vote,but i can not be sure.Just what a few have said.

And may now be saying let us get on with it.Why delay the people have spoken in a democracy.

Excuse me for interrupting again.

I will and believe we the Great British public can trade with anyone on our terms.

It is a big wide world with many opportunities,let us go and grab them.

Forget about the lizard people the Bilderburgs that try to control us.

I hope my spelling is correct.

[unclebulgaria67]

I was talking to someone recently who deals with new EU arrivals and they said that since the Brexit vote they have seen an increase in people coming to the UK. Up to the point of any Brexit where immigration of EU nationals is controlled, you could millions more come, which will put massive pressure on services.

 

A relative of mine teaches English in Spain and there is huge demand for courses. I have noticed locally that there are quite a few Spanish arrivals in recent years.

 

The Brexit vote will accelerate migration for a few years and not put people off.

 

I warned about this before the vote, as did many people.

[Laura Thyme]

An article appeared in the Daily Mail yesterday, where it was reported that all 3.5 million EU citizens currently living in the UK will be allowed to stay because they cannot be legally deported.

 

• There are more than 3.5million EU nationals living in the UK
  
• More than 80 per cent of them will have permanent residency rights by the time Britain leaves the EU in early 2019
  
• Theresa May has previously refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK
  
• A source told The Telegraph: 'The remaining people will, of course, be allowed to stay in the UK'
  

There is nothing earth shattering or even newsworthy about that. Anyone who knows the first thing about immigration law will know that five years lawful residence in the UK confers the right to permanent residence, and this is not limited to EU citizens. The difference between EU and non EU citizens is in the way in which they could lawfully live in the UK. Non EU citizens have to obtain some sort of visa, be it for work or family reasons, while under the EU freedom of movement, any EU citizen can just come and live here.

 

The law that confers permanent residence after five years lawful residence is UK law, not EU rules, and applies equally to non EU citizens, only they have to apply for permanent residence while, from 2006, EU citizens acquire it automatically. This is the law as it stands and not the subject of any negotiations with the EU as it's so often thought.

The main concerns are not to do with what the article says but with the comments made about it. The commentators show not only a very high level of xenophobia but also complete and utter ignorance of the UK legal system and the law making process. They all seem to think:

1. That the law can be changed retroactively to deprive people of their rights.
   
2. That the right of EU citizens to remain is to do with rules imposed by the EU which should no longer apply after Brexit.
   
3. That the right to permanent residence after five years is subject to negotiation with the EU and/or other members.
   
4. That it's up to the Prime Minister and/or the government to decide whether people who have the right to permanent residence could be removed from the country.
   
5. That not deciding to remove people who live here lawfully is a sign of "weakness".
   
6. That it is possible to legislate so EU citizens who have the right to permanent residence are excluded from benefits, council housing, etc.
   

What's most worrying of all is seeing that those were the basis for the Brexit vote, it has been said numerous times that Brexiters didn't know what they were voting for because nobody knows what Brexit actually meant, even now its not clear what it means, so how could anyone have known before voting?

 

The comments posted on there show a great deal of Leavers were grossly mistaken as to what Brexit would actually mean. They voted for something that could never happen. If they had no clue about basic UK legal issues, they had even less of a clue about the economic and financial implications. The vote that threatens to divide the country was cast based on false premises.

 

That's why referendums are not always a good idea. Democracy is all well and good when people are aware of what they are voting for, however, there is a reason why we have a parliamentary system with elected representatives, to leave the decisions in the hands of those who are better informed than the majority of the population.

Edited October 9, 2016 by Laura Thyme
Trying to get rid of the red and huge fonts :(

[postmn]

sry to dissapoint you , i knew exactly what i was voting for when i voted leave so did all the others in my work place to vote leave . would there be such a up roar if the leral elite won somehow i dont think so .

[Laura Thyme]

Some of the comments include:

We voted to take back control, so won't parliament be making the laws that determine who can stay? Evidently the existing laws need some amendment.

Yes, but not retroactively.

With this 3.5 million people settling in this country within years those remainians can surely win the second referendum to thwart all of our efforts and send the country back to the hell again if there is one.

Who said anything about a second referendum? It would be wise to hold one now everyone is beginning to understand what Brexit could actually mean, not what they voted for.

It's simple, stop all benefits for non British citizens, the workers will stay, the shirkers will go.

Really? How about stopping them for all Muslims? Or blacks? Is that shocking? So PC falls by the wayside where Europeans are concerned.

I would wait to see whats on the table before being so generous. Especially after what Herr Merkle and Madame Hollonde have been muttering.

It's not a matter of generosity, it's THE LAW!

And, once out of the EU, we can make our own laws. So our government can make a law which enables us to get rid.

So what was the point of brexit?

So these ignorant Brexiters think permanent residence is conferred by EU law.

This will all be down to Theresa Mays negligence. She needs to stop messing about and exit the EU by Christmas

No, it's not up to her.

It should depend entirely on how the remaining EU countries treat our expats. There are no grounds for giving the one fifth the same tights as the others. Anyone settling here after June 23rd 2016 should be told they have no right or expectation of permanant residency unless they revoke their EU citizenship and become British citizens only.

No law was passed on June 23rd 2016, it was an advisory vote. I could start a poll on here asking how many people would like to change their mind now and have a second referendum. It wouldn't be legally binding.

[Laura Thyme]

sry to dissapoint you ,

You're not disappointing ME, it's not personal.

 

i knew exactly what i was voting for when i voted leave so did all the others in my work place to vote leave .

Did you? And how EXACTLY did you know what you were voting for, when, even now, Ms May herself doesn't know the answer? And CaMoron didn't have a clue at the time?

 

would there be such a up roar if the leral elite won somehow i dont think so .

Yes, there would be, and it would be coming from your side.

[Laura Thyme]

This sums up the ignorance so prevalent amongst fanatical Brexiters:

And how will you find them, they've entered UK illegally. There's no record of them and you can't check people in the street by asking for proof of their ID because no one in the UK carries an ID card.

My understanding of illegal is that it is against the law. How come if you enter the country illegally you can still stay. Try entering North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran illegally and see how you get on. The Roo North of the Tyne

 

Nope! not entered the UK illegally. Where have they been for the past 40+ years?

 

...and this one can't even read:

But 5 out of 6 have come in illegally.

Nope! That's not at all what the article says.

[Laura Thyme]

Funny how everyone says that Brexit should take place for the sake of democracy, whatever the consequences. Then we have Brexiters who clearly believe that dictatorship is a better option:

 

If governments can stop smoking around the world. This government can get rid of unwanted immigrants if it wanted to. We have a bigger government than America has. There are no politicians just career makes.

Who says so, come on Theresa YOU ARE THE BOSS. GET RID.

The 'Remainers' will do everything in their power to keep us in the EU, whether it be done subtly or otherwise. The fight is far from over. Mrs May is a mouthpiece for the Establishment, nothing more.

Actually, it wasn't Mrs May who said they would stay, it was the Home Office, but then those able to read and UNDERSTAND what they read wouldn't have been under such misconceptions.

 

I always suspected that May would turn out to be a complete letdown. This is the woman, remember,, who ran down the border security and failed hopelessly to control any part of immigration during her tenure as Home Secretary. Now she is giving millions rights to stay in the UK and doing nothing to return the thousands of illegals. Thatcher had more steel in her high heel shoes than May has in her backbone.

Nope! SHE is not giving anyone anything, THE LAW is.

 

This one borders on neo-Nazi:

RIP UP THE HUMAN RIGHTS BILL TO START WITH.Every last Migrant needs to return to their homeland and build their countries again because I am darn sure if the boot was on the other foot we would be on a exclusion order.The British people have had enough and already signs show the discontentment of it's own citizens who are born and bred here and have no jobs-no homes-and can't make a decent living let alone provide for the rest of the world.Theresa May WILL round them all up eventually and give back what is ours

Round them up? And tie them with piano wire perhaps? Where is this going? Very worrying trends emerging!

 

If this had been posted about Muslims, Jews, blacks, Asians, etc. the post would have been removed by the mods over there but, as it refers to Europeans, it's perfectly fine:

Who would have guessed that we would be lumbered with this infestation! F,ck them off

Edited October 9, 2016 by Laura Thyme

[unclebulgaria67]

What the government is not telling anyone, is that EU migration has increased since the Brexit vote and any EU migrant who arrives in the UK up to any Brexit date, is likely to be able to stay in the UK. Until the UK exits the EU, it is legal for any EU national to move to the UK to reside and work. This is underpinned by UK law.

 

The UK fails to deport non EU citizens who have outstayed any visa they might have had. In other countries like Australia and New Zealand they have border control officers who run an effective system, quickly finding people to remove from the country. It is more difficult in the UK, because we have a bigger population, fewer border officers for the size of population and more employers willing to overlook visa issues.

 

Brexit will accelerate population increase until such time as any controls are put into place. I am not sure the UK will opt out of the single market with rights of free movement. Business is likely to decide what the government does.

[Old Cogger]

any of people arrived after the brexit vote should leave on brexit = common sence

[unclebulgaria67]

any of people arrived after the brexit vote should leave on brexit = common sence

 

It won't happen. I spoke to someone who deals with new EU arrivals and the numbers are up considerably on same time last year. Coach loads are arriving in London everyday, with more coaches being put on to cope with the demand. These people then move onto other parts of the country to join friends/relatives.

 

If you go pass any major construction site or any roadworks etc, you will hear a good number of European languages being spoken.

[Consumer dude]

Any attempt to send anyone back will be met with the old chestnut, sorry guv, no papers..