Article 50 Discussion

[Jase1982]

All we should focus on is the simple fact that there is literally nothing anyone can say to demonstrate how our economy would improve at all.  The trouble is that people who voted out have been convinced that the EU don't give us anything, and are a drain on our resources.

 

They dont think of this in terms of having to negotiate your way out of something and that it is most definitely a reduction in what you have.  Therefore, the economy would suffer immediately, and GDP would automatically shrink.  I dont see any way around that.  You don't need to be a mathematician to surely understand that? You just need to understand what we currently have through the EU and what you lose by leaving.

[tobyjugg2]

quote isnt working with this connection

I understand long term entirely well king - go for your explanation

Hopefully better than tossus potus' 'start to see some benefits from 2050
- without actually defining any

Just like you haven't.


Go for it - we heard enough evasive crap.

[king12345]

I think on page 1 i predicted an initial transition period of slowing or even stalling economy after Brexit. 

Then, 5 years later the boom.

Let's just say that maybe in 5 years time someone will say: "I told you"

And I accept that maybe that someone will not be me.

BTW sorry if I sound rude, but I am a naturally rude person of European origins.

Apologies for that.

[tobyjugg2]

Now back it up with something other than your unsupported opinion. Just like we have.

 

Because, bluntly, your unsupported opinion means squat when stacked up against the CBI and BoE projections, which predict very different outcomes.

 

It means squat when put up against Tossus moving his base to dublin, and Redwood advising his clients to move their money out of Britain.

 

We know all about unsupported Brexiter fantasies

Lets see something meaningful supporting that fantasy.

 

 

Heres another new one if you dont like the ones you've already been challenged with - and all those challenges unmet.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/09/kpmg-predicts-no-deal-brexit-recession-in-2020

 

and not just the headline. See there also the clear message that consumer spending, which is now tightening at the fastest rate since the financial collapse, WAS supporting the economy

- not manufacturing and investment - which has been dropping like a stone

 

That consumer spending is now running out of borrowed money to spend.

 

"The warning follows forecasts by the Bank of England and the Treasury’s independent forecasting unit, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which have alerted the government to the negative economic consequences of losing access to the EU single market and customs union overnight.

The central bank and the OBR have predicted a recession in the wake of a no-deal Brexit.

"

 

 

adding to the other main financial bodies:

" Yael Selfin, KPMG UK’s chief economist, said she expected that in every quarter of next year the economy would contract, leading to the first recession since 2009 and the aftermath of the financial crisis."

 

Of course you brexiters just squeek - they are all lying

But the evidence again and again shows its the Brexiters that are lying - and badly.

Edited September 9, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[king12345]

Open your eyes tobyjugg2, they've been manipulating us for decades with their scaremongering. 

Here we are in 2019 being scared of Brexit, global warming (pardon me, climate change), foreigners, food, air and everything else.

In the mean time we are told that redemption can be obtained by following (and pumping money into) political organisations dressed as charities,  pharmaceutical industry,  oil companies now turned green, all sort of extravagant project in which we pump money, the trendy nobody getting the most views on youtube, etc.

This is all planned my friend and they don't like when things go wrong.

Vote leave was not meant to happen.

They thought they could rig the referendum but they didn't expect so many leave votes.

Now they're trying to repair the damage to their advantage.

I remember when I slugged off a big name in the pharmaceutical industry at a conference some time ago: all of a sudden the entire room was engaged in a "meaningful" conversation with me, everyone wanted to chip in, they all wanted to take me out for lunch, you guessed it, because they wanted to brainwash me and convince me that i was dreaming. 

200 people suddenly interested in me, a nobody who was there almost by mistake. 

Strange, pretty strange.

When you have money concentrated in a few hands, you lose your soul because they can buy you, your thoughts and everything inside and outside of you.

 

We'll see what happens in 5 years.

 

BTW, in the year 2000, at a party I signed a bet with a global warming believer.

He was convinced that by 2015 London would be no more than 10 miles from the coast.

He first blocked my number as I was asking the £1 we had bet, then a couple of years later he blanked me when I saw him on the street.

Hopefully you won't do the same.

[cjcregg]

6 hours ago, king12345 said:

 

 

 

They thought they could rig the referendum but they didn't expect so many leave votes.

Now they're trying to repair the damage to their advantage.

 

 

 

 

Your opinion had the potential to be a tad less ridiculous had you chosen to identify this mysterious collective you keep referring to as 'they'. 

[brassnecked]

Them, a cabal, a collecive, Bilderberg group, take your pick.  What is certain is there is a Technocratic leaning within all the Political parties that support the Grand project, a nation called Europe, with a centralised Soviet in Brussels.  Read up on Jean Monnet, and since 1975 when the Referendum on the Common marjket was held, and ever since, that direction of travel has been obfuscated and hidden from the People, who are an inconvenience to the rulers.

[London1971]

15 hours ago, king12345 said:

Difficult to explain basic economics, especially long term based on historical data. 

It would be like explaining square roots to someone who can't count to 5.

Really, can't you understand the long term benefits???

Pull me off some data and graphs, some non discredited links on the web from peer approved research.

 

I'd love to see some solid benefits

[king12345]

As a basic example, look at pound sterling historical data pre and post EU.

Anyone who was around before the German unification of Europe (aka EU), will remember how well off we were.

In fact, I (and many other Europeans) moved over here at the time, no regrets.

[king12345]

I had promised myself not to join this discussion again,  but then here I am.

I better keep to my promise and show up in 5 years time just to say: "I told you".

Until then, is there any point discussing something we are not part of and cannot influence???

[London1971]

52 minutes ago, king12345 said:

As a basic example, look at pound sterling historical data pre and post EU.

Anyone who was around before the German unification of Europe (aka EU), will remember how well off we were.

In fact, I (and many other Europeans) moved over here at the time, no regrets.

 

Oh dear.

[postmn]

Well in my place of work which ever way people voted we are all totally disgusted with the MP's but not all  of them. some of  them do do a very good job for their constituents . they are the ones that will suffer the backlash unlike the ones who who could only say what they didn't want not what they wanted , I can see if a election comes and some of them loosing their seats then magically someone in a safe seat gets elevated to the house of lords .

 

Also lets assume we decided to stay the atmosphere would be poisonous between us and the EU and not with standing you would of put a sticky plaster on something that would blow up one day

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

Even one of your heros, Tossus Potus has said:
He expects some benefits to start appearing somewhere around 2050 ,,,
and has voted with his feet and moved his financial business to Dublin

Says it all really.
Phhhuuuuuuttttt

 

 

and Johnsons potential deal plans start to come to light:
The backstop was all England at the UK's request.
The EU only wanted the backstop to apply to NI. The DUP was having none of that.

It looks like with an election pending, and the DUP of little further use, Johnson may be planning to go back to the prior agreement from before the UK tories asked the EU to make it all UK .... before voting against it ...

 

 

Trouble with that is his own ERG fanatics for whom no deal is the only deal, and the DUP for whom it is the antithesis of what they want.

He'll probably try to convince them he is lying and its just a plan to cheat everyone except them
LOL

Edited September 11, 2019 by BankFodder
Removal of some extremely offensive comments

[unclebulgaria67]

 

Brexit process is an embarrassing failure, whether you  voted Remain or Leave originally.

 

Perhaps we can try to remain civilised on CAG and avoid insults. Provide information or explain your point of view. You don't need to attack other posters points of view with an insult included, as that just weakens any point of view you are offering.

[fletch70]

Do  I assume you are unaware of the triumphant British economy of the 1970's and 80's. Oil shortages, riots on the streets , rampant unemployment. The exchange rate has only gone south this time since the referendum 

On 10/09/2019 at 12:19, king12345 said:

As a basic example, look at pound sterling historical data pre and post EU.

Anyone who was around before the German unification of Europe (aka EU), will remember how well off we were.

In fact, I (and many other Europeans) moved over here at the time, no regrets.

 

[honeybee13]

The government has published the Yellowhammer document.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

[tobyjugg2]

item 15 fully redacted ...

 

Interesting the the Government, especially Gove is squealing:

" This is an unprecedented, inappropriate, and disproportionate use of [the Humble Address] procedure. "

 

... after proroguing parliament for a month....

 

 

 

 

Rough and ready scan

 

 

 

Operation Yellowhammer

HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions As of 2 August 2019

•                    When the UK ceases to be a member of the EU in October 2019 all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.

■ The UK reverts fully to ‘third country’ status. The relationship between the UK and the EU as a whole is unsympathetic, with many MS (under pressure from the Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some MS may be more understanding.

•                    No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living jn the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.

•                    Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. Readiness will be further limited by increasing EU Exit fatigue, due to the second extension of Article 50, which will limit the effective impact of current preparedness communication. [To be reviewed]

•                    Business readiness will not be uniform - in general larger businesses across sectors are more likely to have better developed contingency plans than small and medium sized businesses. Business readiness will be compounded by seasonal effects, impacting on factors such as warehouse availability.

•                    Concurrent risks associated with autumn and winter such as severe weather, flooding and seasonal flu could exacerbate a number of impacts and stretch resources of partners and responders.

•                    Private sector companies’ behaviour will be governed by commercial considerations, unless influenced otherwise.

•                    HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.

•                   

 

Key planning assumptions

1.     For the purpose of freight flow and traffic management as 31 October is a Thursday, day 1 of exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend which is not to our advantage. Exit day may coincide with end of October half term school holidays, which vary across the UK. (CCS/DExEU)

2.     In a small number of instances where the impacts of Brexit would be felt negatively in the EU as well as in the UK, Member States may act in way which could also benefit the UK (e.g. energy for Ireland). (CCS/DExEU)

3.     France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on Day 1 No Deal (D1ND) and have built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime. On D1ND, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs. The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold "unready” HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer. In the event of serious disruption, the French might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings. Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France. In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption. Analysis to date has suggested a low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside of Kent which have high volumes of EU traffic, but BDG will continue to work directly with stakeholders at those ports to support planning readiness (BDG/DfT)

4.     UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place. Dependent on the plans EU Member States put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports. This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey. (BDG/FCO/HO/DfT)

5.     Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In Nl there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts. Some participants could exit the market, thereby exacerbating the economic and political impacts. (BEIS)

6.     The BDG/DfT planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.

The reliance of medicines and medical products’ supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits. Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on time of transit, or mean product must be transported under temperature controlled conditions. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot due to short shelf lives - it will also not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months. DHSC is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks. (DHSC)

ii. Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks’ worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption. (DEFRA)

 

7.     Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical dependencies for the food supply chain (such as key input ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in shorter supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end and the Agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure at this time of year, due to preparations for Christmas, which is the busiest time of year for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption. (DEFRA)

ii. Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected due to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemical supply chain. The likelihood of this occurring is considered low and the impact is likely to be localised, affecting up to 100,000's of people. Water companies are well prepared for any disruption; they have significant stocks of all critical chemicals, extensive monitoring of their chemical supply chains (including transportation and all deliveries) and mutual agreements in place. In the event of a supply chain failure, or the need to respond rapidly to other water supply incidents, urgent action may need to be taken to make sure people continue to have access to clean water. (DEFRA)

 

8.     Some cross-border UK financial services will be disrupted. (HMT)

9.     The EU will not have made a data decision with regard to the UK before exit. This will disrupt the flow of personal data from the EU where an alternative legal basis for transfer is not in place. In no deal an adequacy assessment could take years.

(DCMS)

10.   Law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted. (HO/NSS)

11.   UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis to now. All MS have now published legislative proposals, but not all have passed legislation to secure all rights for UKNs. There is a mixed picture across MS in terms of the level of generosity and detail in the legislation. In some MS, UKNs need to take action now, whilst others they do not. Complex administrative procedures within MS, language barriers and uncertainty regarding the UK political situation are contributing to some UKNs being slow to take action. There will be gaps in both substance and understanding. Demand for help from HMG will increase significantly leading to an increase in consular enquiries and more complex and time- consuming consular assistance cases for vulnerable UKNs. Cross HMG support, including continued close engagement and clear communications messaging from UKG departments and the DAs will be needed to help manage the demand. (FCO)

ii.              An EU Member State would continue to pay a pension it currently pays to a UK national living in the EU. (DWP)

iii.              The Commission and individual Member States do not agree to extend the current healthcare arrangements for UK state pensioners and tourists beyond 31 October 2019 and refuse offers by the UK to fund treatments. Member States take no further action to guarantee healthcare for UK nationals and treat them in the same way as other 3rd country nationals.

UK pensioners, workers, travellers and students will need to access healthcare in different ways, depending on the country. Healthcare may require people to demonstrate residency, current or previous employment, enter a social insurance scheme, or purchase private insurance. Member States should treat people with urgent needs, but may require them to pay after the fact. There is a risk of disruption for patients and a minority could face substantial costs. (DHSC)

12.   Gibraltar, due to the imposition of border checks at its border with Spain (and the knock-on effect of delays from the UK to EU), will see disruption to supply of goods (including food), medicines, trans-frontier shipment of waste and delays of 4+ hours for at least a few months in the movement of frontier workers, residents and tourists across the border. Prolonged border delays over the longer term are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar’s economy. Like the UK mainland, cross-border services and data flow will also be disrupted. Despite the time extension to EU Exit, Gibraltar has still not taken decisions to invest in contingency infrastructure (port adjustments; waste management equipment) and there are still concerns that Gibraltar will not have passed all necessary legislation for No Deal, opening up potential legal gaps/risks mainly for the Government of Gibraltar. Gibraltar continues to plan for less significant border delays than our Yellowhammer scenario. Crown Dependencies may be affected by supply chain disruption. (FCO/MoJ)

13.   Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions. (HO)

14.   Regional traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution within the local area, particularly if traffic queues in Kent block the Dartford crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South-East. Customer behaviour could lead to local shortages in other parts of the country. (BEIS

15 Redacted

16.   A small minority of insurance payments from UK insurers into the EU may be delayed. (HMT)

17.   Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel. (HMT)

18.   On D1 ND HMG will operationalise the "no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced 13 March, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side. The model is likely to prove unsustainable due to significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks and no effective unilateral mitigations to address this will be available. With the UK becoming a third country, the automatic application of the EU tariff and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is some businesses will stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff which will make them uncompetitive or to avoid the risk of trading illegally, while others will continue to trade, but experience higher costs which may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be the hardest hit, given its reliance on highly integrated cross border supply chains and high tariff and non­tariff barriers to trade. Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockages. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where both criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater threat and impunity. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be significant pressure to agree new arrangements which supersede the day one model within days or weeks. (NIO/NICS)

19.   Up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters (Up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 vessels in Scottish waters, 40 vessels in Welsh waters, 13 vessels in Northern Irish waters) on day one. This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector, which could lead to both clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet. Competing demands on UK Government and DA maritime agencies and their assets could put enforcement and response capabilities at risk, especially in the event of concurrent or cumulative incidents, which are likely to include; illegal fishing, borders violations (smuggling and illegal migration), and any disorder or criminality arising as a result, e.g. violent disputes or blockading of ports. (Defra, HO, and the DAs in respect of fisheries protection).

20.    There is an assumption that there will be no major change in adult social care on the day after EU Exit. The adult social care market is already fragile due to declining financial viability of providers. An increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social cqre providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit. There are also possible concurrent localised risks: transport or staff disruption, severe winter weather or flu that could exacerbate the existing market fragility, and that cumulatively could stretch resources of providers and LAs. Intelligence will continue to be gathered to forewarn of/prepare for any impacts on the sector including closure of services and handing back of contracts which are not part of normal market function. In addition, we will look at the status of preparations in four local authorities, which are identified as priority concerns, by mid-August. (DHSC)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fletch70]

I have only scanned it but from what I see, only an imbecile would think no deal is a good idea. Mind you, so many people are not aware of the facts and the likes of the Daily Mail and express will not help them make informed decisions. 

 

It it really is quite sickening

 

I have to say as well, those who seem to be wanting a no deal Brexit are the very people who will suffer the most. 

 

The stress of this is is having an adverse effect on many people’s lives. Boris Johnson also appears to be a criminal although we will have to wait for the Supreme Court . Of course if they uphold the Scottish ruling I guess they will be the next to go, followed by a fire in Westminster. Anyone got a brown shirt? 

[tobyjugg2]

I've speed read it and it looks like something that someone knocked up in a hour or two.

 

I make that statement as someone who has been involved in business and supply chain disaster/contingency  planning projects.

 

It really is a toytown quality document.

 

I'd be ashamed to present that as an outline 'possible area of risk which may require further investigation' document ....

Edited September 11, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I couldn't believe how short it is. Maybe it's a summary?

[brassnecked]

Shows they haven't thought things through properly.

[tobyjugg2]

Here are some brief basic outlines of requirements

 

https://www.invensislearning.com/resources/prince2/an-introduction-to-the-7-principles-of-prince2

 

https://www.invensislearning.com/blog/mapping-itil-processes-in-your-disaster-recovery-plan/

 

That Yellowhammer doc will look like a joke to any professional.

[tobyjugg2]

Imagine you are at the table and someone quotes for example

" On D1ND, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs. "

" The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold "unready” HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. "

 

anyone with any knowledge whatsoever of supply chain bottlenecks or lean processes would instantly say

Hold on a sec. That doesn't sound right

 

What level of vehicles per day are we talking about and what is the holding capacity at the ports

... none of which supporting/challenging info is there

 

Let me expand on that.

Imagine most vehicles (6,000-10,000 a day) go through Calais with 10 minutes of admin delays currently, and that goes up to just 20 minutes for the 50-85% without the proper documentation ....

 

That basic sanity check seems to show yellowhammer has issues with even outline assessment and scoping.

It doesn't even seem to cater for the bottleneck becoming jammed, at which stage the French authorities (who are reportedly ready) would possible just re-route all GB lorries to a holding park.

 

The UK seems to be relying on France being super efficient for the UK ..... despite the UK doing next to nowt - apparently

LOL

 

 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

the above is of course why the motor industry (for example) is deserting the UK in real terms, which naturally drags investment after it

 

Correction

The yellowhammer level of supply chain blockage would bankrupt most businesses (3 months of short delay type disruption)

let alone what appears to be the real much higher levels of disruption

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

Well Prof Patrick Minford told a Select Committee in 2012, to let the Car industry go, he is one of the advisors to the ERG, and along with  'Ol Snake Oil Shankar Singham is responsible for the garbage spewing forth from the Alternative Arrangements Commission.  liars, and charlatans the lot of 'em.  Plenty of the ERG lot  have money in hedge funds that will  make a killing when firms go to the wall after No Deal.