Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

The last time I read anything about Patrick Minford, he was in a minority of one against other economists who didn't think Brexit was a good idea.

[brassnecked]

Quoted from the linked article:

 

"North East business and political leaders have hit out at a Brexit-supporting economist after he admitted leaving the EU would “mostly eliminate manufacturing”.

Professor Patrick Minford has been accused of “sacrificing jobs and livelihoods in the region” after saying an exit from Europe would leave Britain “mainly” with industries such as design and marketing.

During a visit to the region, Seema Malhotra, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said it would be a “huge risk” for the North East to vote to leave, while others have branded Professor Minford’s remarks “extraordinary”.

Professor Minford, of Cardiff Business School, has previously advocated “running down” the UK auto industry – which would include plants such as Sunderland’s Nissan.

 

Giving evidence to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in 2012, he said: “It is perfectly true that if you remove protection of the sort that has been given particularly to the car industry and other manufacturing industries inside the protective wall, you will have a change in the situation facing that industry, and you are going to have to run it down.

 

“It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries. These things happen as evolution takes place in your economy.”

"

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819

 

Perhaps he should be known as Minford The Mad?

[tobyjugg2]

too true HB +BN

and although yellowhammer is an understated unmanaged piece of crap imo

with channel4 news or almost any real news giving more detail on all those areas 18 months ago or more,

.. look at the bit about Gibraltar, little though it is, and then what it implies.

[Sali]

16 hours ago, fletch70 said:

I have only scanned it but from what I see, only an imbecile would think no deal is a good idea. Mind you, so many people are not aware of the facts and the likes of the Daily Mail and express will not help them make informed decisions. 

 

It it really is quite sickening

 

I have to say as well, those who seem to be wanting a no deal Brexit are the very people who will suffer the most. 

 

The stress of this is is having an adverse effect on many people’s lives. Boris Johnson also appears to be a criminal although we will have to wait for the Supreme Court . Of course if they uphold the Scottish ruling I guess they will be the next to go, followed by a fire in Westminster. Anyone got a brown shirt? 

 

Well, the report is a worse case scenario.  Wasn't Y2K a similar example.  Planes did not drop from the sky.  The world kept spinning.

 

Who are 'those people' who want a no deal Brexit who will suffer most? If you are not amongst them, why are you so overwrought?  

 

Does appearing to be a criminal make you guilty?  Is that the kind of system you would like in this country?  Hang someone just because he looks a wrong'un?  Bypass the law, the courts and the evidence? Very Germany 1939.   Neville Chamberlain apparently thought Hitler 'appeared' to be an honourable chap that would stick to the deal brokered.  We all know how that turned out.  

 

However you voted, it is right to respect the outcome of the referendum.  That is not fascism; that is democracy.

 

I hope you get your brown shirt; the colour should suit you.
 

 

 

[Jase1982]

20 minutes ago, Sali said:

 

Well, the report is a worse case scenario.  Wasn't Y2K a similar example.  Planes did not drop from the sky.  The world kept spinning.

 

However you voted, it is right to respect the outcome of the referendum.  That is not fascism; that is democracy.

 

 

 

To be fair, there was thirty years worth of work put into preventing any major issues with Y2K.  People always use Y2K as an example but are ignorant of the "things" carried out in the background for years.  People prepared, yet you wouldn't ever see a headline in a newspaper proclaiming the success of very dedicated individuals.  There has been zero preparation for Brexit.

 

Democracy should be inclusive though?  If you use the comparison to the Nazi's; they gained democratic power through creating crisis (although it's debatable whether they were directly responsible for the Reichstag, they still took the opportunity and blamed the communists) and then told the people that they were the saviour, so that more people would vote for them.  I'd argue that under these circumstances the crisis scenario is Brexit, and it's concerning how many people at the Euro elections blindly voted for the Brexit party.  Fascism is about obtaining power through one form or another; be that political or violent. 

 

Democracy shouldn't in my opinion be about going down one road regardless of the views or opinions of a large number of people who are still involved in the democratic process (at least we hope, if your versions of democracy is to be followed).  If a successful argument had been made for Brexit, and a clear strategy put in place MP's would have voted it through by now.  We're where we are because MP's know there's no better deal than being in the EU, and the government has been taken over.

 

Edited September 12, 2019 by Jase1982

[fletch70]

29 minutes ago, Sali said:

 

Well, the report is a worse case scenario.  Wasn't Y2K a similar example.  Planes did not drop from the sky.  The world kept spinning.

 

Who are 'those people' who want a no deal Brexit who will suffer most? If you are not amongst them, why are you so overwrought?  

 

Does appearing to be a criminal make you guilty?  Is that the kind of system you would like in this country?  Hang someone just because he looks a wrong'un?  Bypass the law, the courts and the evidence? Very Germany 1939.   Neville Chamberlain apparently thought Hitler 'appeared' to be an honourable chap that would stick to the deal brokered.  We all know how that turned out.  

 

However you voted, it is right to respect the outcome of the referendum.  That is not fascism; that is democracy.

 

I hope you get your brown shirt; the colour should suit you.
 

 

 

If you read the site of the report it is not a worst case scenario at all 

 

It would appear from media reports the people who most want a no deal Brexit are either those who will be able to make money from it i.e the very wealthy or will play the markets, and at the other end of the scale, the poorest who follow the likes of Stephen Yaxley Lennon although Tommy Robinson does sound so much less elite now doesn't it.The report says the poorest will suffer the most from rising food and oil prices. 

 

As for Boris appearing to be a criminal, I said appeared and we would have to wait for the supreme court to rule on that. If they do rule he acted unlawfully then the weight of the law should be brought down upon him -BUT I do believe in the rule of law which was why I said we would have to wait. So you see I was not saying we should do anything until the rule of law has been allowed to play out so maybe you could actually read what I said before jumping in. By the way, it was a long while before 1939 that Hitler did away with democracy and the rule of law in Germany.

 

As for what you claim is democracy- during the campaign almost no one said leaving without a deal would even be an option or if they did they were in the minority. Comments like remaining in the single market, keeping the customs union, the easiest deal in history all spring to mind. As such people who voted leave had many different versions of leave in their mind. Equally people who voted remain also had different visions. 

 

If you want democracy - this is where we need the second referendum with the stark choices laid on the table . Leave with the deal negotiated, the most up to date would be May's deal , or remain. If a different deal comes up then that should be included. Alternatively you could have a single transferable vote of deal, no deal or remain . My suspicion s that deal would win being the second most popular although I may be surprised.

 

So you see- you completely misunderstood what I wrote, maybe you should have taken time to read it.

 

For he record, I believe that leaving in any form is a national disaster, in fact hiding the referendum as it was was a very poor decision. 

 

We live in a representative FPTP democracy which again in my opinion is a poor version of democracy ; the systems used for MSP's or indeed the 'German' system provides a combination of representation and stability 

Edited September 12, 2019 by fletch70
Addition

[London1971]

Lol what happened to sunlit uplands and the Worlds Easiest trade deal, the best of both worlds etc.  Now it's hopefully we won't have medicine and food shortages.  Anyone who supports Brexit still , IMO is utterly delusional.

[fletch70]

Just thought I should add, maybe I am not amongst the poorest in society (maybe I am) but either way I care about those who will suffer.  I care about the people for which food will become unaffordable, I care about people who need life saving medicines. It is the role of the state to look after the most vulnerable. 

[London1971]

@fletch70  Same here, in total agreement.  Brexit is utterly insane!, built on lies, the FT said it best.

 

' No deal Brexit would make Britain the first country in the world to economically sanction itself'

 

Any one doubting the sheer insanity should write that out 10 times.

[hightail]

2 hours ago, Sali said:

Who are 'those people' who want a no deal Brexit who will suffer most?

In the main 'they' are among the poorest and most disadvantaged.  The report even acknowledges that price rises will affect them disproprotionately.  They have been the most easily persuaded that there will be a magical surplus of quality social housing because it's the immigrants who have it all now.  They are those who are convinced all jobs will become well paid in comfortable conditions.  They are those who believe we only pay in to the EU and get nothing back.  They are those who thought they had nothing to lose by voting leave and will be hardest hit.

[London1971]

IF Brexit had any advantages the government would be publishing a report on it and shouting it from the rooftops rather than trying to cover up how bad it's going to be.

[Sali]

6 hours ago, Jase1982 said:

 

To be fair, there was thirty years worth of work put into preventing any major issues with Y2K.  People always use Y2K as an example but are ignorant of the "things" carried out in the background for years.  People prepared, yet you wouldn't ever see a headline in a newspaper proclaiming the success of very dedicated individuals.  There has been zero preparation for Brexit.

 

Democracy should be inclusive though?  If you use the comparison to the Nazi's; they gained democratic power through creating crisis (although it's debatable whether they were directly responsible for the Reichstag, they still took the opportunity and blamed the communists) and then told the people that they were the saviour, so that more people would vote for them.  I'd argue that under these circumstances the crisis scenario is Brexit, and it's concerning how many people at the Euro elections blindly voted for the Brexit party.  Fascism is about obtaining power through one form or another; be that political or violent. 

 

Democracy shouldn't in my opinion be about going down one road regardless of the views or opinions of a large number of people who are still involved in the democratic process (at least we hope, if your versions of democracy is to be followed).  If a successful argument had been made for Brexit, and a clear strategy put in place MP's would have voted it through by now.  We're where we are because MP's know there's no better deal than being in the EU, and the government has been taken over.

 

Y2K.  Thirty years worth of work?  Where do you get this information from?  The first time I can see it even mentioned is 1985.  I had relatives working in the IT industry back in the day and they say there was no plan for Y2K until maybe 1995.  

 

In a binary choice, there will be a winner and a loser.  Everyone knew that beforehand and yet no objections seem to have been raised by those who were in a position to do so...because they were so sure (wrongly) of the outcome.  The crisis is caused by one side not accepting the result.  It's arrogant to accuse people of 'blindly' voting for a party, just because you disagree with that choice.  

 

In your interpretation of fascism, (about obtaining power through one form or another), we could accuse Corbyn and co of doing just that.

Maybe we should go back to the days when only the rich landowners and nobility were able to be MPs, appointed by the queen. Take away the vote from the working man and god help us that we should allow womens' suffrage!  Then we wouldn't have to bother about the opinions of large numbers of people in the democratic process.  How happy we would be.

You say there has been zero planning for Brexit.  How do you know this?  Do you have a spy in the Cabinet and in every business and house in the country?  Is Amazon Echo leaking reports that I am stocking up on tinned tomatoes and toilet rolls?

 

Neither side is listening to the other.  A contingent in this parliament has hobbled any negoiating power with the EU from day one.  They do not want to leave the EU at any cost.  The ERG do not want to stay in the EU at any cost.  So we remain in this fugue state and it's not good for anyone. 

 

You may have faith in our current MPs.  I do not. 

[Sali]

6 hours ago, fletch70 said:

If you read the site of the report it is not a worst case scenario at all 

 

It would appear from media reports the people who most want a no deal Brexit are either those who will be able to make money from it i.e the very wealthy or will play the markets, and at the other end of the scale, the poorest who follow the likes of Stephen Yaxley Lennon although Tommy Robinson does sound so much less elite now doesn't it.The report says the poorest will suffer the most from rising food and oil prices. 

 

As for Boris appearing to be a criminal, I said appeared and we would have to wait for the supreme court to rule on that. If they do rule he acted unlawfully then the weight of the law should be brought down upon him -BUT I do believe in the rule of law which was why I said we would have to wait. So you see I was not saying we should do anything until the rule of law has been allowed to play out so maybe you could actually read what I said before jumping in. By the way, it was a long while before 1939 that Hitler did away with democracy and the rule of law in Germany.

 

As for what you claim is democracy- during the campaign almost no one said leaving without a deal would even be an option or if they did they were in the minority. Comments like remaining in the single market, keeping the customs union, the easiest deal in history all spring to mind. As such people who voted leave had many different versions of leave in their mind. Equally people who voted remain also had different visions. 

 

If you want democracy - this is where we need the second referendum with the stark choices laid on the table . Leave with the deal negotiated, the most up to date would be May's deal , or remain. If a different deal comes up then that should be included. Alternatively you could have a single transferable vote of deal, no deal or remain . My suspicion s that deal would win being the second most popular although I may be surprised.

 

So you see- you completely misunderstood what I wrote, maybe you should have taken time to read it.

 

For he record, I believe that leaving in any form is a national disaster, in fact hiding the referendum as it was was a very poor decision. 

 

We live in a representative FPTP democracy which again in my opinion is a poor version of democracy ; the systems used for MSP's or indeed the 'German' system provides a combination of representation and stability 

My, haven't I poked the hornets nest.

 

As no country has ever left the EU, with or without a deal, this is just speculation.  We do not know what will happen.  It may be what you choose to believe and there are others who obviously choose to believe otherwise.   Currently this messy divorce from the EU is political.  It seems to me like trying to separate from an abusive partner who wants to ensure it's as difficult at possible to stop other 'partners' thinking they can do the same.  If we ever leave the EU it will become all about the economics. 

 

You said in your earlier post 

Quote

I have to say as well, those who seem to be wanting a no deal Brexit are the very people who will suffer the most.

 

Again, you are speculating, but if that's their view, accept and respect it. Or would you prefer them to be sent to re-education camps so that they can all think the right way....like you?

 

I repeat what I said in a previous post that the question on the ballot paper was leave or remain and whether it should be thus went unchallenged by those that could. 

 

I believe the leaflet that Cameron sent round to every house suggested that it could take 10 years to get a deal with the EU, so a no deal must have been out there.  The government at the time were very pro-remain and armageddon was preached at every opportunity.  I think you are under-estimating the electorate not to have considered the possibilities.  You clearly think (you called the no-dealers imbeciles in an earlier post) that everyone who has a different opinion to you is stupid.  I bet you are fun guy to be around.

 

How about we all accept the outcome of the 2016 referendum and move on (please).  In ten years time, maybe we can have another one to see whether people want to rejoin.

 

[Sali]

4 hours ago, hightail said:

In the main 'they' are among the poorest and most disadvantaged.  The report even acknowledges that price rises will affect them disproprotionately.  They have been the most easily persuaded that there will be a magical surplus of quality social housing because it's the immigrants who have it all now.  They are those who are convinced all jobs will become well paid in comfortable conditions.  They are those who believe we only pay in to the EU and get nothing back.  They are those who thought they had nothing to lose by voting leave and will be hardest hit.

 

Well, 'they' freely made their choice.  Why can't you respect that?

[honeybee13]

Looking at the leaflet from 2016, it's so simplified that I can't see how you'd understand the complexities.

 

I'd be interested to see the section of the pdf that says no deal was an option if you have that please, Sali.

[fletch70]

There is so much twisting and misinformation in your posts it is hardly worth the effort. Maybe Cameron did say it could take 10 years to get e deal BUT that is not what the likes of Farage, Gove and Johnson were saying which is what I suspect many people were listening to. There seems to be a consensus that a great deal of the vote was an anti establishment vote which is rather ironic when you look at Farage et al. 

 

You also seem to be sadly misinformed about the system of democracy we have in this country, it is a representative one; that means we (the people) have passed our vote to the representatives we elect. As it seems most MPs are not in favour of a no deal or even May's deal. 

 

If you are so in favour of democracy- would you consider it democratic to have another referendum- now that more information is available and maybe other possibilities.  I think you underestimate the rage at Cameron and his government and just how much of that went in a stick it to the man leave vote. I may be wrong of course but that does seem to be the educated consensus amongst political observers. 

 

As I said, I care deeply about this country and the union, a non deal brexit will increase the odds of the union dissolving and then we shall be little England, forever ruled by a Tory party who care not one jot for anyone outside of the South East and London. 

[cjcregg]

9 hours ago, Sali said:

 

I believe the leaflet that Cameron sent round to every house suggested that it could take 10 years to get a deal with the EU, so a no deal must have been out there.  The government at the time were very pro-remain and armageddon was preached at every opportunity.  I think you are under-estimating the electorate not to have considered the possibilities.  

 

 

You cannot truly believe that the likes of Mrs Miggins at number 94 had the foresight and perception to consider what effect Brexit would have on the Irish border or how the UK could adjust if it was suddenly plunged into a situation where it didn't have a single negotiated trading relationship with any nation on earth.

 

You harp on about the referendum being 'democratic' but Mrs Miiggins was neither voted for or elected but somehow got to make the most complex and important decision in generations. She had no qualification or mandate. How is that democratic?

[fletch70]

Maybe we should also mention the lies told by the likes of Tim Martin in Wetherspoons who had thousands of beer mats and other material printed saying out was best. His current lie is that leaving the EU will end unfair tariffs on non EU products. He forgets to mention in fact the tariffs may increase and of course EU products may increase in price with no deal.

 

Sadly many of the electorate are not sufficiently engaged with politics to understand the complexities. 

 

Before iur our resident Troll pops up, I am not saying not clever enough just not engaged enough in the same way I am not engaged enough with say engineering. 

 

Political engagement has has been in steady decline since the war and most people now firm their views based on information provided by the media which is controlled in the main by the right. 

[hightail]

1 hour ago, fletch70 said:

Maybe we should also mention the lies told by the likes of Tim Martin in Wetherspoons who had thousands of beer mats and other material printed saying out was best. His current lie is that leaving the EU will end unfair tariffs on non EU products.

He meant he hopes to buy in non EU beer cheaper and therefore make greater profits.  He didn't even try to hide it in one interview he gave.

[Jase1982]

18 hours ago, Sali said:

Quote

Y2K.  Thirty years worth of work?  Where do you get this information from?  The first time I can see it even mentioned is 1985.  I had relatives working in the IT industry back in the day and they say there was no plan for Y2K until maybe 1995.

 

 

I can't remember where I read it, but there was definitely something I read that highlighted the work going into prevention of a potential catastrophe.  That was my point.

 

 

18 hours ago, Sali said:

 

Quote

In a binary choice, there will be a winner and a loser.  Everyone knew that beforehand and yet no objections seem to have been raised by those who were in a position to do so...because they were so sure (wrongly) of the outcome.  The crisis is caused by one side not accepting the result.  It's arrogant to accuse people of 'blindly' voting for a party, just because you disagree with that choice.  

 

The crisis here is Brexit though, which people that voted leave are still failing to grasp.  It's a fact that costs would increase, and the poorest in society would take a hit.  All you have to do is look at the potential loss of access to the single market, and all the trade deals we enjoy.  Yes you can argue that things "might" be so much better at a point in the future to yet be seen, but I don't see how anyone can not see that there will definitely be a hit to the economy.

 

18 hours ago, Sali said:

In your interpretation of fascism, (about obtaining power through one form or another), we could accuse Corbyn and co of doing just that.

 

That's BS in this scenario.  I remember when JC first became leader of the Labour party.  He included many opponents in his front bench, but they proceeded to undermine him  and even initiated a coup against his leadership.  What's he supposed to do.  Personally I've found him to be pretty inclusive a leader but his actions often draw outrage in trying to include everyone in society.

 

18 hours ago, Sali said:

Maybe we should go back to the days when only the rich landowners and nobility were able to be MPs, appointed by the queen. Take away the vote from the working man and god help us that we should allow womens' suffrage!  Then we wouldn't have to bother about the opinions of large numbers of people in the democratic process.  How happy we would be.

You say there has been zero planning for Brexit.  How do you know this?  Do you have a spy in the Cabinet and in every business and house in the country?  Is Amazon Echo leaking reports that I am stocking up on tinned tomatoes and toilet rolls?

 

Oh come on!  Are you that naive?  The government have managed to roll over 6 trade agreements that are of zero consequence.  The yellowhammer report could have been written by any of us.  If there was a clear strategy for a clean Brexit it would have been carried out by now.  Ironically it's democracy that we have to thank for the fact this whole process wasn't allowed to be imposed under a Tory dictatorship.

 

18 hours ago, Sali said:

 

Neither side is listening to the other.  A contingent in this parliament has hobbled any negoiating power with the EU from day one.  They do not want to leave the EU at any cost.  The ERG do not want to stay in the EU at any cost.  So we remain in this fugue state and it's not good for anyone. 

 

You may have faith in our current MPs.  I do not. 

 

This is not and has never been a negotiation.  This is merely the withdrawal agreement under which we would operate until a trade agreement has been ratified, because they know it could take years and years for a trade agreement with the EU.  The terms of the withdrawal agreement are largely based on what the legal requirements are.  The EU have been following a legal process, whilst we have to listen to dodgy UK politicians crowing about deals and how the EU are playing hard ball.  People that voted Brexit have been sold down the river, and you're still being fed lies as they try to keep the pretence up.  On top of that they can just blame the opposition for holding Brexit up.

 

People that voted out need to look into what democracy actually means and how work out whether they want it, or whether they want one party implementing whatever they want with no scrutiny.   If anyone had made a convincing argument for Brexit I'd be all for it, as I suspect many remainers would too; that's what being a democrat is all about.  But there has been no convincing argument, at least one based on facts anyway.

[unclebulgaria67]

Adam Boulton from Sky News thinks a second referendum is likely.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-second-brexit-vote-would-pull-boris-johnson-out-of-the-quagmire-11809091

 

Would a second referendum cause any more division in the country ? Or has  the country already reached maximum level of division anyway ?

 

Is a second referendum the only way forward ?  A binding refetendum, with a choice between any deal negotiated and remaining in the EU.

[brassnecked]

Lib Dems would revoke without any further consultations if elected with any power.

[fletch70]

If there was a specific deal on offer and a second referendum was in place I think many of the remain side would accept the result whatever it was. I think the same could be said for some on the leave side but my worry would be the Brexit party supporters egged on by Farage who would only accept a leave. I for one would be out in the street lobbying for revoke although I would unwillingly accept a leave vote.  I have been on three remain/peoples vote demonstrations now and the only potential violence I have witnessed was by what can only be described as drunken thugs in Birmingham. The police however soon closed them down. 

 

 

I do do fear for the future civil order of society whatever happens 

[honeybee13]

I'm with your, fletch, I also worry about civil order the way things are going.

 

Changing the subject a little, legal opinion sought by Jolyon Maugham of the Good Law project [Ediinburgh anti-prorogation court case] says that the Conservatives' advertising campaign could be collecting voter information illegally.

 

Dominic Cummings already has form for doing something similar with Cambridge Analytica, I find this worrying. Sadly the ICO seems to be fairly toothless, I wonder if they can act in time to stop this before it's too late.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/tory-brexit-online-data-information-voters-privacy

[brassnecked]

There will be chaos if the LibDems push trough a Revoke without asking the voters first.