Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

Well, the last day of what should have been the first proper week of intense and practical negotiations given the great importance and tight timescales.

and after the UK turning up for an hour on the first day, presumably so they can

* Say they turned up

* Claim their expenses for the close to 100 person team

 

Barnier

“A clarification of the UK position is essential, if we are to have any progress"

“As soon as the UK is ready to clarify its position, we will be prepared to have these discussions"

 

 

Davies (with finger in ear)

“Overall, I am encouraged by the progress we have made,”

“We have conducted this round constructively and at pace, and I hope this is a model we can continue going forward”

 

 

 

 

The guardians blow by blow on the 7 key areas so far.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jul/20/where-are-we-up-to-in-these-brexit-talks

[unclebulgaria67]

The negotiations are very complex and even Liam Fox is now saying it might take longer than March 2019. Article 50 will be extended by agreement and UK will still be in the EU until the 2020's.

 

You can change a 40 year old complex relationship within 2 years. Red lines start looking silly.

[tobyjugg2]

The negotiations are very complex and even Liam Fox is now saying it might take longer than March 2019. Article 50 will be extended by agreement and UK will still be in the EU until the 2020's.

 

You can change a 40 year old complex relationship within 2 years. Red lines start looking silly.

 

Forget the red lines, our team wandering over to the start line would be a step forward.

 

Which do we think it is:

1. They really are that unprepared

2. Its all a [sounds like scram] and hard brexit by 'failed negotiations' is the only plan

3. They think its all going to be pointless as Brexit will be reversed

4. This is rather foolish brinksmanship

[tobyjugg2]

and holidaymakers who have not prepared see

"possibly the worst euro exchange rate ever seen at any UK airport"

 

"Manchester and Glasgow were offering almost exactly €1 to the pound." (1.45 in 2015)

 

"Cardiff airport on Friday cut its walk-up rate to the point that a pound would buy just 88 euro cents"

 

"analysis of airport rates today shows that consumers are routinely being offered as low as 0.96 euros to the pound, well below parity"

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/21/britons-travelling-to-europe-offered-just-88-euro-cents-to-the-pound

 

 

Take a look at my post so early in this Brexit debacle listing what would happen ...

 

(1.45 in 2015)

[unclebulgaria67]

If you enter twitter search on google and then search Twitter on Brexit, there are some great posts and links.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rowland72James/status/888654508359811073/photo/1

 

I have read nothing recently which would encourage Brexiteers that Brexit will happen. At some point there is going to be a major storm, when Government stops the process and holds another referendum.

[unclebulgaria67]

*** Brexit explained***

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/889003470128381954/video/1

[honeybee13]

, UB.

 

I slightly more serious summary of the negotiations from the Guardian.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/fail-to-prepare-prepare-for-glorious-success-in-brexit-negotiations-barnier-davis-brussels

[snowdragon]

Corbyn now in denial

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-corbyn-never-promised-abolish-student-debt-110000398.html

[tobyjugg2]

Corbyn now in denial

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-corbyn-never-promised-abolish-student-debt-110000398.html

 

 

Yep,

Lying to get votes just like the Torys

 

Lib Dems at least had no real choice but to renege on their promise not to increase student fees,

Torys lie through their teeth to the plebs as a matter of course

But Corbyn's excuse is a truly Toryesque 'I didn't actually say that'

 

 

Thank God (LOL) Vince is back, back again

Cables back, tell a friend

 

Few people could have mitigated the Torys planned excesses for a majority Tory party the way the libdems did.

 

 

 

Unmitigated Toryism/Mayism was a frightful future us Brits didnt and don't want.

 

We are learning that Corbynism is little different in its willingness to LIE to the public to get power to drive through their REAL agendas while readily discarding inconvenient 'pledges' to help those who voted for them.

:-/

 

 

Interesting that pledge discarding, Brexit shambling, Rich peoples Tax cutting, corrupt bank protecting, NHS destroying, environment destroying, Student debt creating, debt collector empowering, zero hours contract creating Torys are (rightly) accusing Corbyn of being a junior version of the pledge discarding, lying, shambolic politicians that the Torys have pretty much always been....

At least the Torys carried out their pledged tax cuts - to the already rich at the expense of those already poor ...

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Strip away all of the issues identified and what is the fundamental issue.

 

The economic system finally died in 2008 when the worlds Banks crashed. A resuscitation attempt made by pumping the system with cash, but the heart and brain are not really functioning properly.

 

Student finance is just one of the issues that is more complex than you would think. With globalisation most of the mass employment industries moved to cheaper labour economies and Western economies decided its young citizens needed to attend University, rather than be unemployed. Government decided to make the students pay towards their studies by providing repayable loans, so there was money to finance the places on courses required. What was not realised at the time, was that a high proportion of these students would never earn enough to repay the loans in full over the period allowed. It is estimated that over 50% of student loans will never be repaid and Government is quietly writing them off. Tens of billions will be written over a long period.

 

I have discussed the student loan issue very briefly with someone who works at a high level in the field and as they are covered by confidentiality, they would only say that student finance is a major headache for Government at the moment. Goverment sold off some of the very old loans, but was now having difficulty selling off any more. Problems have been identified which are making it very difficult. The Student Loan Company have over the years tried many different ways to collect repayments but there is a very sizeable volume of loans that are not being repaid. Debt buyers don't want large volumes of non performing loans, where they have to get involved in deferment issues etc. Young people tend to move address, change jobs and don't bother to advise SLC of changes.

 

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, plus all the other parties should be looking at the current state of student finance and deciding whether it is actually working. With Government issuing debt to finance Universities and then quietly writing half of it off over decades, it has to be questioned whether this is really the best system.

 

Going back to the Banking system crash and dead economics, i mentioned it, as we are living in a zombie world where much of it is fake. Issuing loans, driving up debts and knowing that a high percentage will never be repaid. Consumer debts around the world are back to the level they were at the time of the 2008 crash. If the credit bubble decides to burst again, it will be worse than 2008. At that point student loan debt would be very insignificant, compared to the mamouth Bank bailout that would be required. Most Banks would become state owned.

[tobyjugg2]

Goverment sold off some of the very old loans, but was now having difficulty selling off any more. Problems have been identified which are making it very difficult. The Student Loan Company have over the years tried many different ways to collect repayments but there is a very sizeable volume of loans that are not being repaid. Debt buyers don't want large volumes of non performing loans, where they have to get involved in deferment issues etc. Young people tend to move address, change jobs and don't bother to advise SLC of changes.

 

Sounds exactly like selling packaged 'sub prime' bad debt to me.

- The 'backbone' of the financial collapse.

 

What were these other companies 'given' to take on this bad debt?

[tobyjugg2]

Immigration minister Brandon Lewis tells bbc radio:

"Free movement of labour ends when we leave the European Union in spring 2019"

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-workers-end-idUKKBN1AC0W5

 

 

Follows

 

Brexit: Liam Fox sets election deadline for EU transition

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40697322

 

 

Within the next few months it is then ...

[king12345]

I heard a great one today.

An old couple lives next street from us and I occasionally do some little jobs for them.

Their son convinced them to sell the house they've owned since 1957 because after brexit it will only be worth a max of £200k.

It's now on the market for £430k.

Is the son going after a premature inheritance?

I have seen recession where the housing market stalls and landlords find their house worth a few grand less than before, but slicing the price in half???

[tobyjugg2]

I heard a great one today.

An old couple lives next street from us and I occasionally do some little jobs for them.

Their son convinced them to sell the house they've owned since 1957 because after brexit it will only be worth a max of £200k.

It's now on the market for £430k.

Is the son going after a premature inheritance?

I have seen recession where the housing market stalls and landlords find their house worth a few grand less than before, but slicing the price in half???

 

Maybe, if their house is a very, very small flat in certain parts of London where loads of international financier's currently have flats.

[king12345]

Maybe, if their house is a very, very small flat in certain parts of London where loads of international financier's currently have flats.

 

It's a large 3 bedroom in west London.

Prices kept climbing around here even during recession.

[citizenB]

Maybe, if their house is a very, very small flat in certain parts of London where loads of international financier's currently have flats.

 

It's a large 3 bedroom in west London.

Prices kept climbing around here even during recession.

 

 

I think TJ is probably right, prices in that part of London are going to be hit by any immigration issues.

 

 

However, if what the Chancellor is saying is true - then immigration will likely continue as it is for the foreseeable future. Hardly seems worth wasting money continuing this farce !

[unclebulgaria67]

I heard a great one today.

An old couple lives next street from us and I occasionally do some little jobs for them.

Their son convinced them to sell the house they've owned since 1957 because after brexit it will only be worth a max of £200k.

It's now on the market for £430k.

Is the son going after a premature inheritance?

I have seen recession where the housing market stalls and landlords find their house worth a few grand less than before, but slicing the price in half???

 

So where are the old couple going to live after the sale ? Is the Son going to provide lodging and care ?

 

Give shortage of housing, there is no risk of house prices falling by that much. In much of the south of England house prices are still increasing, but by a smaller amount.

 

I still think Brexit will not happen because the economics will look so dire that people will change their minds. A second referendum will show a large majority favour staying in the EU. 2018 will be the year of political chaos, with Parliament proving very difficult for the Tories and the Brexorcist media trying to demonise every politician or person who tries to stop Brexit.

[honeybee13]

Not wanting to take the thread off topic, but King's people should be wary of being seen to make themselves deliberately homeless because the council won't help them. Equally, there are deprivation of capital rules if they want the local authority to pay for their care.

 

King, if you want to discuss this, a separate thread would be a good idea.

[king12345]

Not wanting to take the thread off topic, but King's people should be wary of being seen to make themselves deliberately homeless because the council won't help them. Equally, there are deprivation of capital rules if they want the local authority to pay for their care.

 

King, if you want to discuss this, a separate thread would be a good idea.

 

It's a reaction linked to the brexit discussion, so I thought it would be relevant to this thread.

Pardon me if I am mistaken

[unclebulgaria67]

It's a reaction linked to the brexit discussion, so I thought it would be relevant to this thread.

Pardon me if I am mistaken

 

HB is just saying the people you know should seek advice before they do something that causes them problems years down the line.

 

But in general i don"t think the people you know are unique. I can see many people selling up, particularly those thinking of moving to France or Spain. They might move while freedom of movement is still allowed, subject to the relevant countries rules.

[tobyjugg2]

I heard a great one today.

An old couple lives next street from us and I occasionally do some little jobs for them.

Their son convinced them to sell the house they've owned since 1957 because after brexit it will only be worth a max of £200k.

It's now on the market for £430k.

Is the son going after a premature inheritance?

I have seen recession where the housing market stalls and landlords find their house worth a few grand less than before, but slicing the price in half???

 

 

I think its more a matter of what next.

If they are buying a house in an area with better facilities for older folk, generally cheaper, maybe nearer to relatives, and releasing a couple hundred £K to give themselves some cash to spend or boost their pension or even clear a mortgage and still have a nicer home with more space - then who could argue?

 

You can get quite a VERY nice house in many parts of the UK for under 200k

 

I may be mistaken, but a 400k house in west London isnt going to be that much to shout about is it?

Thought the average price in West London for any house was well over a million

 

If I lived in London and didnt NEED to be in London, I would be selling up and moving.

In my opinion, house prices are most likely to take a hit in London with Brexit, and climb elsewhere as people move.

If we don't Brexit and prices climb, so what, its all just a scrap of paper until its sold, and a nice home is a nice home.

[tobyjugg2]

Wasnt sure whther to put this here or in the May calls general election thread

 

BUT in either case, nice to see some proper calling to account being done given Corbyns apparent fear of upsetting his Brexit pals May and Johnson.

 

Vince Cable on rumours of Boris Johnson being about to resign and discord on Brexit within the Tory Parts'ies

 

" If the foreign secretary is working so closely with the chancellor, can he confirm that he supports the chancellor’s call for a three-year transitional deal with continued free movement of labour? So far he has been uncharacteristically silent on the subject.

“It is a simple question: does he support the position of Philip Hammond or Liam Fox? Because he can’t support both.

 

 

 

This is all following different reports from senior ministers stating

 

* Free movement will go on for some time beyond Brexit vs Free movement ends in 2019

 

* We will be a tax Haven vs We wont drop significantly below EU taxation rates

 

* Brexit negotiations are going great vs The EU is ready for when the UK decide to start

 

* We will tax the white van man vs no we wont vs yes we will

 

 

 

Even craven Hunt the Hated, plague and blight of British Health and well-being is sticking his neck up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/boris-johnson-vince-cable-trade-barbs-resignation-rumours

[tobyjugg2]

Wasnt sure whther to put this here or in the May calls general election thread

 

BUT in either case, nice to see some proper calling to account being done given Corbyns apparent fear of upsetting his Brexit pals May and Johnson.

 

 

Even craven Hunt the Hated, plague and blight of British Health and well-being is sticking his neck up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/boris-johnson-vince-cable-trade-barbs-resignation-rumours

 

Wonder if Vinces ploy was to leave it difficult for Johnson to resign,

 

Johnson is of course a fabulous political asset to every UK party except the one he's a member of.

[tobyjugg2]

We've focused a lot on the immediate damage that Brexit would do us, which is becoming clearer by the day - and I can unhappily say my estimates are clearly showing themselves as very conservative.

 

and we looked at the fanciful ideas of some great return to the days of empire, albeit through rose tinted glasses on the part of some who conveniently forget that all the wealth was concentrated in the hands of a few, and the majority lived in rented rooms at best and owned barely what they stood up in.

 

Lets spread the net a little wider

 

Australia , India, New Zealand etc has little interest in returning to the old days of Empire, or anything much other than selling us stuff to the detriment of our home grown industries

What point is there in buying cheap battery bred, chlorinated chicken when you've got no jobs and no industries to generate any income to buy it? (even if you wanted too)

 

 

Already linked here is India and Chinas interests in our nation - and it isnt for our citizens benefit.

 

 

Ok what about Trumps US really big really good deal really really soon.

Well apart from most thinking impeachment is a hammer just waiting to fall ...

TTIP is nothing we want, and would put us at direct odds with the EU as it would require us to breach a lot of the EU's trade requirements and standards further debilitating any trade options with our biggest possible market, and the terms of

 

 

What about the USA generally?

 

Trumps USA walking all over their long fought for Americas and Pacific trade deals,

Heading for a trade war with China,

while China is building allies and trade partners in the Americas - almost 30% of Chile's exports go to China, and Europe does almost as much trade with Chile as the US does,

and China building trade relations with the EU with Germany being a major trade partner.

 

 

If Imran Khan keeps gaining power, the US will be kicked out of Pakistan, hence lose influence and access in Afghanistan and Iraq where the US are already doing badly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/01/pakistan-must-reject-us-aid-and-exit-the-war-on-terror-says-imran-khan

 

God knows whats happening with the US and Russia

BUT the latest US sanctions which have apparently gone in despite Trump put the US at loggerheads with the EU who has effectively put the US -EU trade deal on ice.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-russia-germany-idUKKBN1AG0SD

"Germany urges EU countermeasures against U.S."

 

 

 

All of which bodes really really badly for the UK stepping out into the world, let alone with that arrogant Imperial attitude shown by the Brexit crew.

[tobyjugg2]

and

the bids for London's EU agencies are unveiled

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/01/slick-risible-bids-london-eu-agencies-european-council