Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

Let's hope so, EB.

[tobyjugg2]

Same with planes landing, the agreements are between airports and airlines for landing slots, not between countries.

 

That is Simply not true.

 

In simple terms from the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45019603

"the UK would no longer be part of the EU's single aviation market, which is the basis for flights in and out of the country at the moment, not just to the EU itself, but to other countries with which the EU has a deal - such as the United States and Canada"

 

"Of course, plenty of "third countries" have their own separate deals with the EU and given time, the UK could do the same. But we keep coming back to that ticking clock."

 

In equally simple but more detailed terms from airport business com

http://www.airport-business.com/2016/10/brexit/

 

"When the UK leaves the EU, without special arrangements the UK’s membership of the ECAA would lapse and these airlines would lose all their automatic rights to operate to, from and within the ECAA. Furthermore, their rights would also lapse on routes that are now governed by agreements between the third-party country and the EU (such as the EU-US “Open Skies” agreement).

However, it is important to note that these rights are reciprocal. US and other ECAA carriers would lose their automatic rights to fly to the UK."

[tobyjugg2]

Cant edit again so

Note

No flights from/to UK in OR out of EU, US or Canada among others without replacement agreements.

[honeybee13]

I think what you're saying could apply to trains as well, TJ I read something from the French transport minister a few weeks ago.

 

I'm not sure about ferries apart from both sides anticipating queues.

Edited October 18, 2018 by honeybee13
Typos

[tobyjugg2]

I think what you're saying could apply to trains as well, TJ I read something from the French transport minister a few weeks ago.

 

 

I'm not sure about ferries about from both sides ainticipating queues.

 

Too true HB

 

Now the agreements could be relatively straightforward, apart from the UK

* Potentially NOT living up to existing agreements ( catch me once ...)

* The UK NOT having the required organisations, let alone staff to implement and manage these areas which have long been largely managed as part of the EU BENEFITS package. (A cut in benefits perhaps considered poetic justice by some)

 

 

Imagine sending David Davies to negotiate them (as Fox hasn't)

We would be using anti-gravity drives or stargates by the time we got anywhere.

Johnson would perhaps say: Just send the planes over they will have to do something with them

Corbyn would perhaps say No planes is good

[honeybee13]

There's a march in London tomorrow in favour of a second referendum.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/19/brexit-britain-weaker-poorer-peoples-vote

[tobyjugg2]

The brexiters will shout: We will have to continue abiding by the ECJ

 

-Why aren't they asked: Why is that an issue?

What do you REALLY want to do that might/will a problem to the ECJ?

 

I think the following a part of why:

UK is endangering people's health by denying their right to clean air, says UN

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/19/uk-is-endangering-peoples-health-by-denying-their-right-to-clean-air-says-un

 

"The UK government has been widely criticised by clean air campaigners and environmental groups over what they say has been its failure to tackle the air pollution crisis. It has been defeated three times in court over its plans on the issue

and is now one of six countries taken to the European court of justice over their toxic air"

 

 

 

LOOK TO THE REAL REASONS HIGH END (sic) BREXITERS WANT BREXIT

[ericsbrother]

I dont want a EU court deciding anything, we have a totally differnet legal system and traditions. Europes legal system was inplemented by Napoleon and like all things that are useless but governmental they stay behind after the villain has left the stage.

 

 

For example, when I buy a secondhand item why should the seller have any rights over how I dispose of it later on? Uk law says they dont but EU law based on French law does.

 

 

Every country that has had a referendum on its terms for being in the EU or on whetehr to remain or not has voted to leave/limit powers but they have been told to redo the referendum until they arrive at the answer Brussels wanted. Ireland, Greece, France, Netherlands and Denmark have all said they want to go at some point and then a new cooked up decision has meant they stay.

 

 

 

Is it fear that makes people want to remain? The 700000 marchers were realy stating they dont belive in parliamentary democracy or honouring the decision of the majority. If they did then they would be marching to insist on the quality fo the deal having accepted the will of the Piers Morgany is to leave a corruopt political experiment and seek to influence the shape of the deal rather than demanding the country votes and votes agin until they get what they want.

 

Lets not stop there, how about conviction of criminals on a minority decision becasue we dont like the idea somene may escape justice. What about forcing people to eat their greens and if they dont imprison them and force feed them for their own good?

Edited October 22, 2018 by honeybee13
Paras

[tobyjugg2]

I ...

 

 

Examples, links, evidence?

[obiter dictum]

The rule of law in the EU is Civil/Roman law under Constantine. Corpus Juris Civilis. England diverted to Common Law after the Norman conquests

Edited October 22, 2018 by obiter dictum

[tobyjugg2]

The rule of law in the EU is Civil/Roman law under Constantine. Corpus Juris Civilis. England diverted to Common Law after the Norman conquests

 

 

I believe you are referring to what is more commonly known as Common law vs civil law?

What about statute law?

 

So what?

They all have their issues and benefits - which commonly depend on how 'effective' your representation is and how effectively the laws are drafted.

Even some freeman stuff makes sense to your soul even if it aint worth used toilet paper in court.

 

What about the recent issues with May trying to use Henry VIII dictatorship 'laws' to bypass parliament and the country

 

Do any of you have a significant point?

If so: stop throwing soundbites, most of which are really meaningless gibberish at best, and clearly state it.

 

 

... and stop wasting the court of public opinions time

The judgement of you as largely literally 'pointless' is already made...

... You have no appeal!

[king12345]

If we have to have another referendum on Brexit, surely we should have another one for every other referendum we ever voted.

Oh, wait; this would not be democratic.

[tobyjugg2]

If we have to have another referendum on Brexit, surely we should have another one for every other referendum we ever voted.

Oh, wait; this would not be democratic.

 

Of course it would be democratic - the very definition of democratic - and all of them if there is significant reason.

 

People not only do change their minds they have a democratic RIGHT and DUTY to review and perhaps change therir mind when FACTS come to light warranting a review of a situation

 

- especially when those FACTS highlight 'misconceptions' or in extreme cases outright lies that they have been deceived with.

 

 

Farage tried and failed multiple times to get a seat in Westminster.

 

He repeatedly hoped that a change of peoples minds would result in him democratically getting a seat.

The peoples minds didn't change in that case though.

But of course, both he and the voters had the opportunity to change their minds - as democracy demands.

[honeybee13]

From David Davis. “If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy.”

[unclebulgaria67]

I very much doubt that Brexit will happen before end of 2019, because it seems unlikely that UK Parliament and all EU countries including EU itself will be able to pass the relevant legislation. Most MP's at Westminster would vote to stop a 'no deal WTO' Brexit and if necessary to instruct Government to request an extension to Article 50.

 

 

Northern Ireland and the customs union relationship is the major stumbling block. The EU withdrawal negotiation is currently stuck, because the choice is either keeping Northern Ireland in EU customs area or keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs area. Neither of these options is currently acceptable to the UK government, as it would split the Tory party.

 

 

If there is no UK agreement with the EU on the withdrawal by early December, there would not be enough time before March 29th 2019 for all of the Parliamentary processes across the UK/EU to be completed. Being that a 'no deal WTO' Brexit would not be acceptable and UK Government would be forced to act to stop it, then the options would be limited. An extension to Article 50 by 12 months would allow more time to resolve the politics.

 

 

The question is whether Brexit will ever happen, because the economic situation in the next few years is forecast to be very difficult.

[tobyjugg2]

I very much doubt that Brexit will happen before end of 2019, because it seems unlikely that UK Parliament and all EU countries including EU itself will be able to pass the relevant legislation. Most MP's at Westminster would vote to stop a 'no deal WTO' Brexit and if necessary to instruct Government to request an extension to Article 50.

 

 

Northern Ireland and the customs union relationship is the major stumbling block. The EU withdrawal negotiation is currently stuck, because the choice is either keeping Northern Ireland in EU customs area or keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs area. Neither of these options is currently acceptable to the UK government, as it would split the Tory party.

 

 

If there is no UK agreement with the EU on the withdrawal by early December, there would not be enough time before March 29th 2019 for all of the Parliamentary processes across the UK/EU to be completed. Being that a 'no deal WTO' Brexit would not be acceptable and UK Government would be forced to act to stop it, then the options would be limited. An extension to Article 50 by 12 months would allow more time to resolve the politics.

 

 

The question is whether Brexit will ever happen, because the economic situation in the next few years is forecast to be very difficult.

 

 

Only have one 'issue with that Unclebulgaria - but its a lulu

 

There is no 'No deal WTO Brexit' There is only a 'Deal with the Island of Ireland sorted or No deal Brexit'

 

Why is that?

Because of WTO regulations which do NOT allow ad hack preferential status:

 

Hence for a 'No deal WTO deal', the UK would have to PREVENT NI from trading with the RoI except under WTO rules.

The same applies to the EU and all their WTO trading.

 

I dont think either side of the current non border on the Island of Ireland will accept that.

[tobyjugg2]

oops

apologies to all - did a king12345 there and din't link the info.

 

Ok, the WTO legalise is mindbendingly numbing but here it is in more palatable form.

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/

 

"Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) market access, to all other WTO members."

 

"This means that exports to the EU would be subject to the same customs checks, tariffs and regulatory barriers that the UK and EU currently charge on trade with countries such as the US. The UK’s exports to the EU and other WTO members would also be subject to the importing countries’ most favoured nation tariffs."

 

"The only exceptions to this principle are that countries can choose to enter into free trade agreements and they can give preferential market access to developing countries."

 

 

 

So

deal regarding the border,

the Island of Ireland accepts a border and tariffs between NI and RoI,

or no WTO.

[tobyjugg2]

and another brexiter in power totally fails to be prepared for Brexit ..

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-michael-gove-house-of-lords-livestock-waste-a8600001.html

 

"

They expressed concerns about obtaining a post-Brexit status that will allow livestock to be transported to Europe.

 

“You acknowledged that this process could take six months, during which time no animal exports could take place,” Lord Teverson wrote. “This would be catastrophic for the UK’s agri-food sector”."

[tobyjugg2]

Isnt it amazing that the people who want a hard brexit the most, and are pressing for it in so many ways, and working to ensure that no deal is possible, are completely failing to prepare for it,

.. and in fact seem to be completely relying on a good deal from the EU rather than prepare for their so actively sought after hard Brexit

 

One might think they actually want the UK economy to collapse.

Surely that's not the case and its simple negligence and incompetence?

[unclebulgaria67]

Isnt it amazing that the people who want a hard brexit the most, and are pressing for it in so many ways, and working to ensure that no deal is possible, are completely failing to prepare for it,

.. and in fact seem to be completely relying on a good deal from the EU rather than prepare for their so actively sought after hard Brexit

 

One might think they actually want the UK economy to collapse.

Surely that's not the case and its simple negligence and incompetence?

 

I think some who support Brexit are looking at it as a way of making money. Either in businesses that assist with any work created by Brexit e.g. new customs arrangements, trade agreements or in making money in any economic downturn that occurs.

 

I have always thought that some manipulating Brexit, were doing so, for reasons other than sovereignty of the UK.

 

Some Brexiteers want to turn the UK into a form of tax haven, where the wealthy hide their money ( more than they do now). The EU has new legislation coming in February 2019, which would have led to more transparency being required, which might have reduced privacy of the very wealthy from hiding their money. The timing of Brexit of course is just coincidental .

[king12345]

My prediction pre-Brexit referendum was that once we go out, there will be an inevitable transition period of 5 years max in which the economy will slow down or regress.

After that we will be buying 2 euros with a pound a start being wealthy again.

I'll report in 5 years and few months if I'm still around...

[tobyjugg2]

My prediction pre-Brexit referendum was that once we go out, there will be an inevitable transition period of 5 years max in which the economy will slow down or regress.

After that we will be buying 2 euros with a pound a start being wealthy again.

I'll report in 5 years and few months if I'm still around...

Smug disagrees - 50 years according to him,

2060 (once Africa develops a bit) from Liam Fox ....

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2018/jul/24/two-50-or-100-years-when-do-leavers-think-brexit-will-pay-off

[tobyjugg2]

So where are the Hard Brexit plans

 

Given:

 

No planes in or out without a department, with staff + an agreement

 

Lorries parked in the south waiting for a deal to allow boats with cows, pigs, sheep to sail to ports

 

No GPS - except on the goodwill of the EU - until Britain puts its own satellites up - errr whenever

 

Medicines agreements needed

 

WTO requires either a Ireland border or an agreement by the UK with the EU meaning its not needed

 

 

 

 

Plans in place

Jaguar will fly in parts for LUXURY cars to avoid the sea port issues (ooops - no they wont - see above)

 

Other plans

Move businesses to the EU as demonstrated by res-smugg

Yep - that works for him.

[tobyjugg2]

Correction and addition

 

Plans in place

Jaguar will fly in parts for LUXURY cars paying increased WTO tariffs (and passing on the cost - not that us mere mortals care) to avoid the sea port issues (ooops - no they wont - see Planes AND WTO issues above)

 

 

Other plans

Move businesses to the EU as demonstrated by res-smugg

Yep - that works for him.

 

 

Other Other Plans

Live in France and apply for French citizenship like Brexit Lord haw haw Lawson

 

or an alleged application for German citizenship - denied by Farage

https://skwawkbox.org/2016/12/31/heres-the-address-farage-used-for-his-german-passport-application/

[tobyjugg2]

should read 'apparently denied by Farage'