Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

Corrections put together - delete other versions for tidyness please

 

 

So where are the Hard Brexit plans

 

Given:

 

No planes in or out without a department, staff + multiple international/worldwide agreements that dont exist outside the EU

 

Lorries parked in the south waiting for a deal to allow boats with cows, pigs, sheep to sail to ports

- with food for the animals helicoptered in (local flights) and sh*t helicoptered out

 

No GPS - except on the goodwill of the EU - until Britain puts its own satellites up - errr whenever that might be

 

Medicines agreements needed

 

WTO requires either a Ireland border or an agreement by the UK with the EU meaning its not needed

 

etc etc etc

 

 

 

 

Plans in place

Jaguar will fly in parts for LUXURY cars paying increased WTO tariffs (and passing on the cost - not that us mere mortals care) to avoid the sea port issues

(ooops - no they wont - see Planes AND WTO issues above)

 

 

Other plans

Move businesses to the EU as demonstrated by res-smugg

Yep - that works for him and some others.

 

 

Other Other Plans

Live in France and apply for French citizenship like Brexit Lord Lawson

 

or an alleged application for German citizenship - apparently denied by Farage

https://skwawkbox.org/2016/12/31/her...t-application/

Edited October 25, 2018 by Andyorch
edited

[honeybee13]

TJ, from what I've read, Lord Lawson has applied for a carte de sejour that lets him live in France. It isn't the same as having French nationality.

 

It's still an interesting thing to do given what he's said about Europe.

 

 

Edit: link added.

 

 

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/Lord-Lawson-applies-for-residency-card-in-France

Edited October 25, 2018 by honeybee13

[tobyjugg2]

TJ, from what I've read, Lord Lawson has applied for a carte de sejour that lets him live in France. It isn't the same as having French nationality.

 

It's still an interesting thing to do given what he's said about Europe.

 

 

Edit: link added.

 

 

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/Lord-Lawson-applies-for-residency-card-in-France

 

 

accepted HB

but as you say - still highly incongruous

[tobyjugg2]

I think some who support Brexit are looking at it as a way of making money. Either in businesses that assist with any work created by Brexit e.g. new customs arrangements, trade agreements or in making money in any economic downturn that occurs.

 

I have always thought that some manipulating Brexit, were doing so, for reasons other than sovereignty of the UK.

 

Some Brexiteers want to turn the UK into a form of tax haven, where the wealthy hide their money ( more than they do now). The EU has new legislation coming in February 2019, which would have led to more transparency being required, which might have reduced privacy of the very wealthy from hiding their money. The timing of Brexit of course is just coincidental .

 

I think along with the environmental issues (ECJ on UK air quality) thats another nail hit squarely on the head unclebulgaria.

 

These people driving Brexit dont give a toss about anything except their own narrow interests and profits - whatever it costs everyone else.

[tobyjugg2]

From the h'arses mouth (before its shipped off to an ex motorway lorry park):

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

[tobyjugg2]

Reuters Commentary: Britain’s deluded hopes for a painless free-trade deal

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-wal...-idUKKCN1BG232

"Watching the slow-motion crash of Britain’s exit negotiations with the European Union is a disconcerting experience. A state that once ran a global empire is looking second-rate as the government’s implausible expectations about what it may be able to achieve in the talks are dashed."

 

'The British lack of realism, especially about vital future trading arrangements with the EU (or elsewhere), reflects divisions within a government weakened after Prime Minister Theresa May lost her Conservative majority at the general election in June. But it also shows the government’s dismaying lack of historical and strategic understanding about how Britain lost its clout outside the European club more than half a century ago."

 

As May is just lining up for all but simple repealing and hard brexit (despite that being what will in effect happen)

- why doesn't she just stop weeing around and put that to parliament and the people, or even just parliament, or even just her own MP's ...........

 

See how long she would last - 24 hours? 12?

 

 

a couple of reminders from a year ago

Hope the quotes work. Had to build one manually as teh reply with quote - wouldn't.

[tobyjugg2]

and another reminder from a year ago

 

Please do watch it through - especially from just after 7 mins for the impatient ... but you do need to watch it all to get what is being told

 

 

After reading the prior post, then perhaps consider listening to the following. Its only a little over 10 mins long, although it does seem far longer

 

[king12345]

So from next March:

No planes in or out of UK.

No goods in or out of UK.

No wireless services (GPS etc.)

No people allowe in and all British abroad repatriated.

No medicine in (This is my favourite considering that the market is dominated by gsk, a British company with 30 billion revenue. I guess they have their political say)

 

We are doomed.

But then, look at the bright side: we will go back to pre industrial way of living and the environment will benefit from it.

Maybe the UK microclimate will stop changing...

Tongue in cheek, in case someone wonders.

[king12345]

There won't be any cake after March.

We'll have to hunt our food and eat it raw.

Then when all animals have been eaten, we've go to eat each other.

[tobyjugg2]

There won't be any cake after March.

 

Quite correct - as the top Brexiters will have had it and ate it after taking it - aboard ...

(before the ships and planes are grounded)

 

Mind you - they are investing in parking fine companies ready for all those tickets on the M26 pay lorry park

- the UK's Brexit growth business of choice and sole 'actioned' Brexit plan

[king12345]

This thread is one of the most amusing on the internet atm.

[tobyjugg2]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-m20-m26-traffic-chris-grayling-bbc-video/

"

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling defended controversial plans to turn a major English motorway into a lorry park "

"Overnight works are already underway to convert much of the M26 near Sevenoaks in Kent into a lorry park to be used in the event of a no deal Brexit."

 

 

https://metro.co.uk/2018/10/12/plan-to-turn-m26-into-a-massive-lorry-park-after-brexit-8032065/

 

"An MP has said that his constituency was ‘kept in the dark’ about plans to turn the M26 into a lorry park to cope with a no-deal Brexit. Tom Tugendhat, who voted to remain in the EU but now supports Theresa May, told the House of Commons that work on the motorway Kent started on Wednesday night, even though he was assured there was no work planned."

Edited October 26, 2018 by Andyorch
Edited

[honeybee13]

Let's keep it civil, people. It's OK for people to have different opinions to our own.

 

 

HB

[tobyjugg2]

So enough negativity, lets look to the mail for some reports on the positives of Brexit. The mail has gotta be a good source of the positives of brexit ... DOESN'T IT?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/brexit/index.html

 

Brits could face a Netflix blackout during holidays to Europe following Brexit

 

Brexiteers slam the PM's Chequers proposal in stormy Commons session as David Davis warns Conservatives will LOSE the next election unless the plan is ditched

 

Nicola Sturgeon seizes on Brexit to try to force a fresh independence vote as her Westminster deputy vows to cause 'maximum disruption' to May's government

 

Property market set for feeble autumn as house prices sag and buyers stay on sidelines until Brexit

 

Theresa May swipes at Boris Johnson for attacking firms over Brexit and insists the Tories must BACK and not 'f***' business to win

 

They seem to be what brexiters might consider to be the most positive in that list to me ...

[tobyjugg2]

and Corbyn and Mcdonnell continue to support May as long as she is delivering the hard Brexit Corbyn wants, even when the Tories continue to give most of the benefits of tax cuts to the richest in the country

John McDonnell has 'defended' his decision to support Philip Hammond’s tax cuts for higher earners amid a growing revolt from members of his own party.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/budget-2018-john-mcdonnell-philip-hammond-tax-cuts-treasury-resolution-foundation-labour-a8609051.html

 

 

Analysis by the Resolution Foundation published on Tuesday found that the cuts, which will cost the Treasury almost £2.8bn, would overwhelmingly benefit wealthier households, with almost half the giveaway going to the top 10% of earners.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/30/philip-hammond-income-tax-cuts-are-right-and-moral-budget-chancellor

[tobyjugg2]

Arron Banks faces criminal inquiry over Brexit campaign

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...rexit-campaign

 

"The investigation centres on the suspicion Banks was not the “true source” of the £8m of loans made to BFTC, and that loans involved funds from a “non-qualifying or impermissible company” based in the Isle of Man.

 

The Electoral Commission statement said the investigation would look into whether Banks, Bilney and others involved in BFTC, Leave.EU and associated companies “concealed the true details of these financial transactions”."

[tobyjugg2]

Surprised the brexiters haven't started squealing in delight about this - I was hoping they would before I assess it

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-financial-services/uk-eu-strike-tentative-brexit-deal-on-financial-services-the-times-idUKKCN1N639Q

 

UK, EU agree tentative Brexit deal on financial services

 

 

 

 

The EU are continuing to throw May lifelines but what does it really mean?

 

"The services deal would give UK companies access to European markets as long as British financial regulation remained broadly aligned with the EU’s"

So as long as the UK stay in line, they can use this EU mechanism.

 

'surprised the EU allowed that and would trust the UK' I hear the knowledgeable mutter.

 

They haven't

Read the detail

 

Its available only as long as the UK stays in line with EU regs,

any changes must be agreed by both parties or its 30 days notice and it ends.

30 days notice and it ends anyway.

 

So why do I say its the EU throwing a lifeline?

That 30 Days clause - It can also be invoked by any party at any time ...

so The EU will still have to act as if the EU Services are gone to be ready whether the UK would renege or not (but they will as the negotiations have continuously shown).

 

Its nothing but a lifeline for May, and time for the Companies to move.

[tobyjugg2]

and even this little bit of not a lot is now being 'denied'

 

"In a rare public comment on a press report, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, tweeted: “Misleading press articles today on #Brexit & financial services. Reminder: EU may grant and withdraw equivalence in some financial services autonomously"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/01/brexit-deal-on-financial-services-agreed-report

Edited November 1, 2018 by Andyorch
Own quote removed

[tobyjugg2]

and more Brexit shenanigans coming into the light of day

 

May urged to clarify whether she blocked Arron Banks investigation

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-02/may-blocked-2016-probe-in-brexit-backer-arron-banks-mail-says

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6344611/Theresa-stepped-stop-security-services-probing-Arron-Banks-run-Brexit-referendum.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490

 

 

 

"The Mail understands that in early 2016 the then home secretary Theresa May declined a request by one of the security services to investigate Banks- as the topic was simply too explosive in the run up to the referendum."

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/02/theresa-may-arron-banks-leave-eu-campaign-investigation

 

 

"The Daily Mail reported on Thursday that May declined a request by one of the security services to investigate Banks in 2016, repeating a claim made by Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, at his party conference in September."

 

 

 

 

"At the time Watson asked: “Did [May] ask the security services to investigate? Or did she stop them doing so? There is a suggestion that in the run-up to the referendum the prime minister – in her capacity at the time as home secretary – declined at least one application from the security services to mount a full investigation into Mr Banks and others suspected of Russian influence."

 

 

Revealed: Isle of Man firm at centre of claims against Arron Banks

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/01/isle-man-company-allegations-arron-banks-leave-eu-brexit

 

"On Thursday the Electoral Commission confirmed it had asked the National Crime Agency to investigate whether Rock Holdings Limited, a company controlled by the businessman Arron Banks and registered on the ground floor of that Isle of Man office building, was the illegal source of up to £8m in funding provided to Banks’ Leave.EU campaign group and five other pro-Brexit campaign groups during 2016."

 

"Under British electoral law donors to EU referendum campaigns had to be individuals or companies registered in the UK or Gibraltar."

TJ comment:

Banks claim seems to be that he is a UK citizen even if the companies of his that supplied the money aren't.

 

 

 

The self-styled ‘bad boy’ who bankrolled the Leave campaign appears to have exaggerated his wealth. So how did he pay for his Brexit spree?

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/how-did-arron-banks-afford-brexit

 

"In September 2013, the man who bought Brexit – Arron Banks – was in trouble.

 

 

For the past two years, financial regulators in Gibraltar had been scrutinising his insurance under-writer, Southern Rock. They had discovered it was keeping reserves far below what was needed.

 

 

This was a serious problem. Banks claimed he had already provided £40 million to plug the hole. He also told the regulator he would step down as a director, but has since been required to find an eye-watering £60 million in extra funding.

 

 

 

A year later, these financial worries seem to have completely evaporated. Banks had begun buying diamond mines, investing millions into chemical companies and wealth management firms, setting up loss-making political consultancies, and most famous of all – funding the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). "

 

 

 

"One question remains though. If Banks was in such a tight spot in September 2013, how did he manage to be so generous the following year?"

 

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/how-did-arron-banks-afford-brexit

[tobyjugg2]

again - cant update to tidy up the mess this sites wysiwyg editor makes of so many posts

[tobyjugg2]

and now we see the on/off statements about possible deals

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland/britains-raab-asked-to-scrap-irish-backstop-after-three-months-telegraph-idUKKCN1N90PI

 

Raab only wants the backstop border agreement to hold for three months, so that after three months he can go back to 'cake and eat it'

Of course, the EU wants a real backstop to ensure those sort of shenanigans don't get foisted on them

Edited November 5, 2018 by Andyorch
edited

[honeybee13]

The government seem to be planning quite hard for the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

 

 

A possible lottery for haulier permits, as low as 5% of what's required according to one estimate.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/05/hauliers-face-lottery-for-permits-in-no-deal-brexit

 

 

Scotland Yard is setting up a new unit because of worries over losing intelligence from Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/05/brexit-metropolitan-police-rush-set-up-no-deal-safety-net-unit

 

 

And Defra has taken staff from the Environment Agency to prepare for a hard Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/05/environment-department-accused-of-brexit-panic-after-urgent-staff-demand

[tobyjugg2]

The government seem to be planning quite hard for the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

 

I think that would be more accurately

The government is applying the minimum effort needed to ensure a no deal Brexit while doing even less to cater for it.

 

 

A possible lottery for haulier permits, as low as 5% of what's required according to one estimate.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/05/hauliers-face-lottery-for-permits-in-no-deal-brexit

 

 

Scotland Yard is setting up a new unit because of worries over losing intelligence from Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/05/brexit-metropolitan-police-rush-set-up-no-deal-safety-net-unit

 

 

And Defra has taken staff from the Environment Agency to prepare for a hard Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/05/environment-department-accused-of-brexit-panic-after-urgent-staff-demand

 

None of these will address either the Irish border or the British border issues in any real way, let alone any of the business issues where these businesses are simply told 'prepare for a no deal Brexit' while telling them nothing about what environment and regulations that would entail.

 

Biggest 'effort' seems to be in converting Dover area motorways into lorry parks - via adding some central barrier gates ..

and saying we'll have some good business with wealthy Africans in 20 or 30 years if the African countries economies develop some in that time

 

It beggars belief really.

[honeybee13]

Depressing, isn't it? We're looking really bad on the world stage.

 

 

I think that would be more accurately

The government is applying the minimum effort needed to ensure a no deal Brexit while doing even less to cater for it.

 

I read an article yesterday that advanced the theory that HMG are talking up how bad a no deal Brexit would be, so that they can bulldoze through the bad deal they've got and MPse will accept it.

[tobyjugg2]

I read an article yesterday that advanced the theory that HMG are talking up how bad a no deal Brexit would be, so that they can bulldoze through the bad deal they've got and MPse will accept it.

 

I cant even understand that as the case, as they have no deal as far as I can see.

 

What use is a motorway turned into a lorry park to anyone?

Lorries filled with livestock, perishables?

 

 

This 95% sorted is BS.

 

Thats the 97% of areas where there was no issue,

minus the 2% that they have screwed up in the negotiations

 

with the 3% of areas, the big areas that needed resolution - border, rights and trade regulations - still unresolved

 

So that 95% - 2% less than it was when negotiations started.

 

 

 

I can only see it as the UK effectively really saying

- we are going to cut our own throats if you dont cave in and give us our cake and eat it seeding the destruction of the EU in the process,

... or do you really want a bankrupt nuclear state on your border with the likes of Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox, Smugg, Murdock and Banks running it?

 

Madness. With no apologies for the strong terms.

 

 

 

Lets look at the players

 

EU - Eire has veto - end of.

EU - will not give UK cake and eat it - end of

 

DUP = will not allow any border in the sea with the UK,

and may be averse to a border on the Island of Island - but that seems secondary

 

Corbyn - wants out of the EU and a general election with the country is a desperate state - I think he likely thinks that a Britain in chaos is great for him as he can blame everything on the Tories (despite him supporting them in the collapse) and anything at all he does after that is 'necessary'. Henry VIII.

 

Tories - May at war with her cabinet let alone party, let alone population and all parties at war with each other.

 

All to protect the union - BS - its destroying it

NI will either fall back into chaos - or secede (as will Scotland) - and god knows whether even that will result in a unified or a divided Ireland

With Ireland and Scotland gone - look at a map and see what that does to English territorial waters ...

 

 

May appears to be working on the basis that voting down her 'no deal deal' means a default 'no deal' with no other options to the UK parliament or people - How dictatorial.

 

There are real MP's from all parties working to ensure that parliament at least has a say - and hopefully that the British people will have their say on whats done now that cards are falling on the table.

 

With The cabinet, Parliament and the UK's nations and people all at odds with each other (well done Cameron you ****ing Arse) the only option is to lay it all out on the table in clear terms and give all the people their say.

 

 

This must be heaven to the UK's enemies.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Andyorch
edited language