Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

With the EU MEP elections still being analysed and resulting in the UK ending up with MORE pro EU MEP's, after Farage only got 5 of the 15 'eurosceptic seats the torys lost

 

We look to the claimed  Brexit stronghold of Peterborough election a week tomorrow for our next 'indicator'

 

The brexit party is touted as the favourite to win with at least some vocal  locals still  being reported as claiming that.

 

 

I suppose that depends on whether the other parties get their backsides in gear and run a Farage-esque campaign with Twitter and Facebook ads and simple messages even if those messages say little ... as long as they sound good.

In the Brexit heartlands, at least - they need to fight fire with fire.

 

 

[London1971]

These elections have changed nothing, everyone is just spinning it their way.

 

All contenders for PM are acting like somehow, they will be able to avoid the fate of Maggie Thatcher, John Major, David Cameron and Theresa May. All destroyed by their party over Europe.

Edited May 29, 2019 by London1971

[fletch70]

It might be interesting that Boris has been summoned to appear in court 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/29/boris-johnson-appear-court-eu-referendum-misconduct-claims

 

This might damage his chances of the leadership - who knows how it will change.

 

I think we are looking more and more likely to have a second referendum of some sort 

[hightail]

I wish I could believe another referendum would make some worthwhile difference.  I can't find a leave voter who admits they voted that way because of the lies (even though they were very vocal about an extra £350m going straight to the NHS at the time in my local) so they're unlikely to change their minds and vote remain a second time around.  I even know remain voters who are so sick of the whole thing now they say they'd vote leave in a second referendum just to be done with it all.

[honeybee13]

It's a conundrum, isn't it, hightail?

 

Off topic, I know, but Rees Smug's new book, which has had terrible reviews, has sold 734 copies. Amazing.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2019/may/29/jacob-rees-mogg-victorians-has-sold-734-copies-will-publishers-take-note

[tobyjugg2]

So here;s corbyns stance:

 

He told reporters in Dublin that Labour would negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU that would be put to the public, the Irish Times newspaper reported.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/corbyn-any-new-brexit-vote-will-not-be-leave-or-remain-re-run-idUKKCN1SZ2RI

 

" “The referendum would be on a negotiated deal or alternatives to that. It’s not a re-run of 2016,” Corbyn said."

 

So its Corbyns non-existent fantasy deal or no deal

 

Sound familiar?

 

 

 

Don't forget he';s already said any Labour deal that could get a majority in Parliament wouldn't be put to the people.

 

 

So much for a move away from demagogues and listening to the party and the people

- quite the opposite.

 

[honeybee13]

It does seem a hypocritical stance, doesn't it?  I do wonder if parties are avoiding a second referendum because they don't think they'll like the result.

 

There's an interesting article by Gordon Brown who seems to be turning into some sort of elder statesman. He thinks they've been discussing the wrong question and so do I. It isn't often I agree with GB. lol

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/30/new-battle-britain-resistance-nigel-farage

[London1971]

Yup, remain still haven't got their act together, I think a second referendum could go either way by the smallest of margins again.  I just don't think many minds have been changed in the last 3 years. 

[tobyjugg2]

Strange thing is a number of the core issues he raises were stated - then quickly dumped

 

* We will negotiate the terms of a new deal before any legal leave process is started

* No one is talking about threatening our place in the single market

* Only fools would start a leave process before defining the terms ...

* A second referendum after the terms are agreed

* New trade deals across the world bigger than the EU ready to go a nanosecond after we trigger the leave process

* There is NO downside

* Easiest deal in history - we will get a great deal

 

Its what won the referendum at least as much as the 350m a week lie.

 

 

 

all that aside from Enoch Farages hate mongering.

[London1971]

Speaking of Lying Boris, I actually think Boris is our best hope to actually stay in the EU.  All this hard Brexit stuff at the moment is just BS to please elderly Tory party members.

 

He's totally self absorbed, vain and has no moral compass, no way is he going to cause general election triggering national chaos by throwing us into a no deal.  The history books forever saying, Boris destroyed the economy, and only served as Pm for 6 months.

[tobyjugg2]

@London1971

 

You simply cant rely on a liar. Not even from one minute to the next.

 

 

@HB

 

When you think about it, every MP who voted to trigger article 50 before it was all sorted and presented back to the people - as presented

- betrayed all the voters in the referendum and the whole democratic process.

 

.. but of course, the alternative was to tell the truth

[hightail]

Those who believed the lies need to continue to do so.  It's no different to those individually targeted cons where the gullible continue to send ever increasing amounts of money to con artists. 

[London1971]

The truth is fake news to them,

 

Not sure if any of you have been watching Chernobyl, sadly we've really not moved on much from then in some ways, misinformation wise.

[tobyjugg2]

worth a watch for those who haven't seen it.

 

Brexit: Endgame - The Hidden Money, with Stephen Fry

[honeybee13]

It looks as if you do indeed need to be careful what you wish for. Unless there's a miracle, Boris is set to be PM by July.

 

The Guardian yesterday had excerpts from the European press and they're horrified given Boris's history with Brussels. One said he'll be a mini Trump over the Channel trying to wreck the EU.

 

Do we know what Boris actually believes in? One reason for his success seems to be telling Brexiteers and Remainers what they want to hear, but if he gets into power, he can't keep everyone happy.

[London1971]

Come Oct 31st Boris will be grovelling to the EU for an extension, just like his predecessor  I'm sure the PM was party to some pretty apcalyptic assessments of a no deal Brexit, and that was the reason she didn't simply let the deadline pass.

 

That's why changing PM is about as useful as changing captain on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

[honeybee13]

I like the Titanic reference.

 

The thought of a no deal exit is scary, as is the thought of a PM proroguing Parliament or just not presenting it with any legislation to debate, which some of the leadership hopefuls want to do.

 

And to get an extension, the EU have to agree, as you say. You just have to hope that if they're dealing with Boris, who they hate, they will be so worried about the effect of no deal  on their own economies that they'll agree to an extension.

[London1971]

If 'project fear' becomes reality after a no deal there are so many questions.. but there is a massive risk of a general election if things go wrong, and it won't end well for the Tories.  I would think that Boris wouldn't want to go down in the history books as the shortest serving Prime Minister ever.

 

Or for that matter the PM directly responsible for paralysing the UK economy.

 

Also the other question, canceling parliament? to stop them making a decision, good luck with that, your going to need parliament on your side Mr PM. Remember your majority is as thin as a razor blade.

 

Edit, you have no majority

 

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by London1971

[honeybee13]

I'm reading that Boris's leadership rivals have all signed up for the debate on Channel 4 on Sunday. He'll be represented by an empty chair if he doesn't turn up.

 

Boris's campaign seems to be on a news blackout, I assume because they're terrified the real Boris will show through. So far he's refused interviews and has taken six questions from journos. I didn't think he answered any of them yesterday.

[London1971]

Yup, 

 

Which is part of the reason I don't think he will win, and he's peaked far too early IMO. 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by London1971

[cjcregg]

I think honeybee13 has given you the reason why he WILL win.

 

It's inconceivable that he won't be one of the last 2 candidates, the final vote being made by the 160,000 odd conservative party members and his tax cut proposal to raise the higher rate threshold to £80k was precisely aimed to appeal to those 160,000 people.

 

Politically, at least, he knows exactly what he's doing.

 

 

[London1971]

Maybe so, but he's hugely popular now, plenty of time to ruin things, and when you think about it he was an awful Foreign Secretary which on reflection doesn't bode well for the office of Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt quietly in the running.

[Jase1982]

6 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

And to get an extension, the EU have to agree, as you say. You just have to hope that if they're dealing with Boris, who they hate, they will be so worried about the effect of no deal  on their own economies that they'll agree to an extension.

 

Personally I think the effect of Brexit on the EU (from their perspective) has been made out to be more convoluted than it is in reality.  People keep saying that they'll still buy and sell from us regardless.  And whilst I disagree with the blaise way in which people dismiss any negativity, the statement is true.  The EU will continue to trade with us, but the terms under which they trade will suffer - So as I see it, international firms will have a choice.  To keep investing in the UK and to keep paying more for products we export, or to go elsewhere.  To my mind it's a simple business choice.  If in fact we do make things more expensive to buy in, and harder to obtain through lack of any trade agreement or customs agreement then businesses would be stupid to purchase from us.  I think a lot of people are blind to the fact that whilst we have a manufacturing sector, we don't manufacture complete products here, and we don't have a lot of the raw materials within the UK.  Having no trade deals would just make it more expensive to import the goods we need to maintain our supply chain, whilst making it more expensive to export.

 

Quote

If 'project fear' becomes reality after a no deal there are so many questions.. but there is a massive risk of a general election if things go wrong, and it won't end well for the Tories.  I would think that Boris wouldn't want to go down in the history books as the shortest serving Prime Minister ever.

 

A general election won't happen.  The numbers don't exist within parliament to make it happen.  We would need the new PM To call one, and that would be suicide.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Jase1982

[London1971]

1 minute ago, Jase1982 said:

 

 

 

 

A general election won't happen.  The numbers don't exist within parliament to make it happen.  We would need to new PM To call one, and that would be suicide.

 

C

 

So what exactly is a parliamentary no confidence vote? A motion of no confidence, or censure motion, is a motion moved in the House of Commons with the wording: “That this House has no confidence in HM Government”. It signifies that the government has lost the support of the Commons (the legislature), without which it is impossible to operate effectively. Retaining the confidence of the Commons is a core principle of the UK constitution.

The current rules are outlined in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. If a motion stating “That this House has no confidence in HM Government” is lost by the government and a new government with the support of a majority of MPs cannot be formed within 14 days, parliament is dissolved and an early general election is triggered.

[Jase1982]

Yeah, and there aren't enough MP's within parliament to carry through a motion of no confidence.  We've seen it before.  Maybe if the Tories see a load more defectors to the independent party or whatever they want to call themselves.

 

It's uncharted territory, maybe if the new PM goes for a no deal scenario, but it would take a hell of a lot for any Tory to betray their party.