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A strain of influenza which hit Australia and affected 98,000 people, is set to come to Britain

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A strain of influenza which hit Australia and affected 98,000 people, is set to come to Britain and could case our worst epidemic for fifty years.

The outbreak of H2N2 has been the most severe on record and due to the global travel, it is set to come to the UK next.

Will it or wont it.I am taking no chances how about you.

The vulnerable groups include the over-65s, pregnant women, children from six to 24 months and those with long-term *illness such as *diabetes, heart disease and asthma.

 

Last year, less than half of those in the most at risk groups took up the free NHS flu jab.

https://www.unilad.co.uk/health/deadly-flu-outbreak-in-uk-expected-to-kill-thousands/

 

Well i have not much time this morning to hang around.

I am nipping off sharpish to the vets to have my Flu Injection.

Adios must fly.

Tawnyowl.

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Had mine at the begining of the month, I am not taking any risk with this!

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A strain of influenza which hit Australia and affected 98,000 people, is set to come to Britain and could case our worst epidemic for fifty years.

 

Will it or wont it.I am taking no chances how about you.

The vulnerable groups include the over-65s, pregnant women, children from six to 24 months and those with long-term *illness such as *diabetes, heart disease and asthma.

 

 

https://www.unilad.co.uk/health/deadly-flu-outbreak-in-uk-expected-to-kill-thousands/

 

Well i have not much time this morning to hang around.

I am nipping off sharpish to the vets to have my Flu Injection.

Adios must fly.

Tawnyowl.

 

The usual pattern is "Flu strain emerges in Southern Hemisphere in their winter, then travels to Northern Hemisphere in ours". The WHO watches for the emerging prevalent strains, and uses these to advise on the vaccine strains, given the 6-8 months it takes to develop the vaccine and produce it in sufficient amounts.

It is the same pattern almost every year (regarding recommendations, and southern hemisphere, then northern).

 

Major outbreaks / risk of pandemic happens when a strain that hasn't been given sufficient protection by recent vaccines emerges (either by 'shift', where a new HxNx strain occurs by recombination, or the vaccine coverage for a recent HxNx strain decreases as the antigens 'drift')

 

The WHO aren't reporting H2N2 as the major strain in Australia / Oceania, in their last update from 16th October

http://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/

and 98,000 (cases, not deaths!) out of 24+ million population isn't too bad!.

 

The Influenza A viruses this years UK vaccine are targeted against are a H1N1 and a H3N2 strain. They aren't targeted against a H2N2 strain. (They also cover one or two Influenza B strains depending on which vaccine is used).

GP's surgeries have been running vaccination campaigns for a while now, and those in an at risk group should already have received an invitation to attend for vaccination, if registered with a GP.

Even though the vaccine doesn't include a H2N2 strain : it is still worth having if you are a front-line (healthcare or social care worker), or in one of those 'at risk' groups.

 

Mind you, we've "been here before"

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-12691894

Calls to vaccinate against H2N2 : back in 2011!

 

So, in summary - if H2N2 becomes a problem, they'll have to mass produce the vaccine for it: the current stocks don't cover it.

That shouldn't stop people getting vaccinated if they are in a risk group, or relevant occupation: the current vaccine is correctly targeted against the currently circulating majority strains.

 

For the 'serious geeks'- techno-babble follows:

The strains recommended for the UK vaccine are the same HxNx strains as last year, but the H1N1 strain recommended has changed from one 'similar to a H1N1 strain originally isolated in California in 2009', to one 'similar to a H1N1 strain isolated in Michigan in 2015'.

(Source: http://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/virus/candidates_reagents/201703_qanda_recommendation.pdf?ua=1 )

 

In a similar fashion, the vaccine recommended for the southern hemisphere's 2018 winter (our summer!) vaccine has a change, but they are advised to keep 'our currently advised' H1N1 strain, and keep a H3N2 strain, but change the H3N2 from a 'Hong Kong 2014-like' strain to a 'Singapore 2016-like' strain.

http://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/virus/recommendations/2018_south/en/

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Let's hope it doesn't like our climate and stays away. I remember the bird flu scare, more scare than flu. Better to be vigilant though.

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Let's hope it doesn't like our climate and stays away. I remember the bird flu scare, more scare than flu. Better to be vigilant though.

 

Influenza has a worldwide distribution, from the tropics, to the Arctic .

There has been interest in why the 1918 pandemic (H1N1) strain was so virulent : the strain was recovered from bodies buried from 1918, which had been preserved by burial in the Alaskan Arctic permafrost

https://www.intmedpress.com/serveFile.cfm?sUID=c14c6180-e571-4f23-ac97-b34c4843e328

 

I wouldn't pin your hopes on it not liking our climate ...... Flu quite likes temperate climes, and the winter of those climes making people congregate more.

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Probably correct on no boundaries including climate, I was being tongue in cheek:madgrin:

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=BazzaS;5071925]Influenza has a worldwide distribution, from the tropics, to the Arctic .

There has been interest in why the 1918 pandemic (H1N1) strain was so virulent : the strain was recovered from bodies buried from 1918, which had been preserved by burial in the Alaskan Arctic permafrost

https://www.intmedpress.com/serveFile.cfm?sUID=c14c6180-e571-4f23-ac97-b34c4843e328

 

Hi BazzaS

Some interesting articles and thoughts on your two posts.Are you in the medical profession.

The one on Permafrost caught my eye.

I have just been looking at a tidal wave in Greenland some say due to Permafrost melting and causing a landslide.Something like that,lost the link now.Happened a while ago.And seems like not many people know about it.Happens quite a lot nowadays.

As the Permafrost is melting here there and everywhere it seems i wonder what other delights are to appear as years go by.

 

But i do get carried away,imagination travels too far sometimes,at least a year or so:madgrin:

Now this Flu injection maybe best to pop down to the Docs or Chemist and get this done.

 

Now these injections are you like me when at the Docs.

When the nurse takes aim with the needle do you close one eye look the other way then pass out,waking up when the deed is done.I often wonder how people deal with this.

Then insist on rest and recuperation at home with 24 hour watch for at least two days.TV,Laptop,Mobile all within reach.

Just wondering how people cope when the needle is in sight.

Talking about this has made me go quite faint,bed for another day while i think about this.

Bye for now.

Tawnyowl.

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Health warning after 'Aussie flu' blamed for deaths in Ireland

Elderly people, pregnant women and children with chronic illness in the UK are being urged to get vaccinated.

Health officials have urged people to get vaccinated following a number of deaths in Ireland which have been linked to "Australian flu".

 

The Irish Health Service Executive (HSE) said a "small number" of people had died in the last fortnight after contracting the H3N2 strain, which was blamed for one of Australia's worst ever flu outbreaks last year.

Public Health England and the Irish HSE have now urged people at higher risk of flu - including the elderly, pregnant women and children with chronic illness - to get vaccinated.

https://news.sky.com/story/health-warning-after-aussie-flu-blamed-for-deaths-in-ireland-11193127

 

'Aussie flu' continues its rampage as the NHS struggles to cope: Official data shows cases of the killer virus have surged by 48% in a week

Government statistics reveal 1,649 people were struck down with flu last week

The sharp rise in cases has been triggered by a surge in 2 aggressive subtypes

Usually, just one subtype, either A or B, is responsible for the majority of case

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5229191/Cases-Aussie-flu-surge-48-week-figures-show.html

 

Australian flu symptoms and what to look out for as H3N2 strain affects people in UK

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/australian-flu-symptoms-what-look-14101923

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There's at least one report of someone having it down here in Plymouth.

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There's at least one report of someone having it down here in Plymouth.

 

And?.

 

There are 3 current circulating strains, 2 of which are specific Flu A's, and a specific Flu B. There (if previous years are anything to go by) will be many other Flu A's about.

 

All the scares of "Aussie flu" miss the key point. It doesn't matter if it is a bad winter for Aussie Flu, or a winter for Flu A in general (of whichever HxNx types), or a bad winter for Flu A and Flu B : what matters is if it is a bad winter or not.

 

If a friend or relative ends up on ITU from 'flu, or dies from it : does it matter if it is Aussie flu or another Flu A, or even a Flu B ?!

 

Likely the key take home message is "get vaccinated if you are in a risk group" ; (no need to focus on "Aussie flu", you want to be protected against the other major circulating strains, too).

 

The experts are still discussing if they need to change from the current "2 different vaccines" approach to "3 different vaccines".

The inactivated vaccine (still used for adults in the UK) has been found not to give a good immune response in children, so they are given an attenuated vaccine instead (if it can be safely used ; if immunocompromised they would get the inactivated vaccine instead).

 

The upcoming possible change is because the inactivated vaccine has been found to give a poor response for the current strains in the over-65, the discussion being if they move to a (still inactivated) vaccine that also contains an adjuvant to boost immune response, for the over 65's.

 

Looking at the facts (and not media assumptions that often conflate all flu with Flu A, with Flu A (H3), with 'Aussie flu' (a specific H3N2 strain), or describe 'Aussie flu" as a H2N2 strain (when it isn;t ; it is H3N2):

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671692/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_01_2018.pdf

 

ITU admissions: 114 new admissions to ICU/HDU with confirmed influenza (5 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 17 influenza A(H3N2), 46 influenza A(unknown subtype) and 46 influenza B), so, yes, H3N2 is the largest of the fully identified strains, but still only 17 out of 114 (15%)

Hospital admissions: 421 hospitalised confirmed influenza cases, with 49 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 112 influenza A(H3N2), 81 influenza A(unknown subtype) and 179 influenza . Again, yes H3N2 is the largest of the fully identified strains, but still only 112 out of 421 (27%).

 

On the most superficial analysis 27% of flu admissions are from H3N2 but only 15% of critical care admissions. Does this mean one can argue that Aussie flu is in fact less severe than the others (if i is 27% of admissions but only 15% of critical care admissions)....... "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics" ..........

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problem is that there is more than one type of H2N3 virus going round, likewise H1N1 and 2 significant strains of the B virus. so jabs dont really prevent you from catching flu virus unless you are particularly lucky, just make your immune system more primed to fight it when it arrives. the so called Aussie flu has identifiable substrains so are we worried about the Brisbane flu or the Melbourne flu?

Mrs EB had her jab courtesy of work on fri, felt like garbage all weekend bit better today. People keep saying that the jab doesnt cause the symptoms but funny how many people get struck down like this immediately after having it. On the plus side she is much better today so gone off to meet all of the patients who come in complaining of feeling better than she does and demanding antibiotics.

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The vaccine is designed to be “best fit, for most” of the expected circulating strains.

 

It doesn’t provide 100% effective cover for those strains.

It doesn’t provide cover for all strains (those not included in the vaccine strains)

 

Yet, it is way better than not getting vaccinated. Even without 100% cover for the vaccine strains, it might not stop you catching flu (but it might!), but even if it doesn’t stop it, you’ll be less ill and less likely to spread it as effectively as full blown flu.

 

She felt rotten after the jab?

Unless she was given the children’s vaccine (a live attenuated strain), she can’t have caught flu from the vaccine, only had a different bug by coincidence, or had an immune response to the vaccine (not ‘flu, as the adult vaccine doesn’t contain live virus).

 

Either she would have developed whatever it was anyway (if it was another coincidental bug), or what she experienced was an immune response to the vaccine. If it was an immune response, then although she may have felt poorly, she can be reassured that she's had a good response to vaccination......

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I've had the flu jab every year since 2014 and never had an issue, apart from a sore arm.

 

There is, apparently, according to the local paper, now a French flu.

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There is, apparently, according to the local paper, now a French flu.

 

So what is “French flu” then?

My prediction is it is still Flu A (possibly with the circulating Flu B added in) and likely the circulating H1N1, H3N2 and other minority strains too.

 

French flu is almost certainly just “higher levels of the same being seen in France”, (just like some areas of the U.K. are seeing higher levels of influenza-like-illness (ILI)) unless and until it is shown this is (antigenically) a new strain.

 

I note that many local papers are saying “Aussie flu here” (or “headed here”), and then highlighting the FLUSURVEY map.

FLUSURVEY relies on the public self reporting ILI (so not even confirmed flu, let alone confirmed Flu A, let alone confirmed “Aussie flu”)

 

Yet again, “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics”.

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You can get statistics to Say anything you want to.

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that is how the virus keeps going, it mutates otherwise it would have died out years ago (or at least caused no-one any effects) Spanish flu was so named because they were the ony country to admit that their people were going down like flies from it, Uk and French didnt want anyone to know how many it killed in case the Germans took advantage and started hostilities again. This then mutated into blaming the Spanish

The current one probably isnt even an epidemic and is certainly not a pandemic if you use the normal statistical methods for calculating such things. Funny the things you have to learn to do the Institute of Waste Management "sewage farms can be fun" diploma.

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More snowflakes causing panic over yet another non-event.

 

‘Twas ever thus...

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What ever strain it is the flu doesn't care who it picks on best advice get protected I didn't and paid the price 2 weeks off work 2 courses of steroids and antibiotics which could of been avoided by having the jab especially anyone with long term health conditions!!


 

 

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.please remember that any advice i give is purely my own experience or opinion thankyou

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Would my brother’s death from flu at the age of 20 be snowflakey enough for you? Our waiting room is packed with people suffering from something horrible and I personally wouldn’t wish it on my worst enemy. Interestingly that same sort of rhetoric fuels the anti-vaccination lobby too, oh and kills children who die prematurely from preventable diseases.


My views are my own and are not representative of any organisation. if you've found my post helpful please click on the star below.

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Whilst I have empathy for your brothers death, most people that say they have got flu and are Sat in a doctors waiting room cannot have flu. They have a bad cold and/or bad cough.

 

If they had flu they wouldn't be able to lift their head from the pillow.

 

That's the advice given to me by my GP some years ago when I genuinely had flu.

I couldn't get out of bed.

 

I've had the flu jab because of the work I do. I'm in a protected profession so get diphtheria,Tb,typhoid hep b and flu jabs every year.

Its better to have some protection than non at all

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In fairness what we’re seeing, and this is backed up by the weekly public health updates which we receive, is that an increasing number of patients are presenting with genuine influenza which is especially worrying. I too, along with my colleagues and family are vaccinated against the nasty communicable diseases but lots of people are not. And, the suggestion that the medical profession are being snowflakes by warning people who are most vulnerable to the effects of this disease to exercise caution is just comical.

 

I agree that you ‘know’ when you have flu, but unfortunately we’re seeing lots of people who are finding out for themselves. Just before Christmas public health actually started issuing recommendations that we issue anti-viral medication to those suffering, unfortunately what we’re now seeing is that stocks of certain preferred anti-virals are quickly running out, the Welsh NHS has just relaxed contract requirements so that GP surgeries can concentrate on seeing patients rather than chasing quality and outcomes framework points by ticking boxes and we can expect to see more of the same to try to reduce the strain on the system.


My views are my own and are not representative of any organisation. if you've found my post helpful please click on the star below.

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My views are my own and are not representative of any organisation. if you've found my post helpful please click on the star below.

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I don't think it's "snokeflakey" to warn people about things like flu.

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even the birds are getting their flu "This is the first time avian flu has been identified in the UK this winter ...', well h5ns whatever that means :)

https://www.farminguk.com/news/Seventeen-wild-birds-confirmed-with-bird-flu-in-Dorset_48346.html

at least '...The strain, however, is the European strain, as opposed to the Asian strain, which is not associated with humans...' :)


IMO

:-):rant:

 

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