Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/david-miliband-brexit-eu-referendum-labour-theresa-may-david-davis-boris-johnson-liam-fox-philip-a7890571.html

 

Milliband is only one the latest to be shown of this mindset CB,

 

Conservative Anna Soubry (decent honest person IMO) is also raising her voice

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/hard-brexit-could-split-tory-party-says-anna-soubry

 

as are a number from the Tory camp, not just ex chiefs of staff.

 

The Torys are far better at this (speaking out) than most gutless Labour politicians who seem worried they might lose their MP salaries.

 

 

We can but hope that these seemingly honestly outspoken politicians from all parties (unlike May, Johnson, Gove and Corbyn who are outspoken with little concern for honesty IMO) will get together, not just to address Brexit issues, but to bring a breath of fresh air into the stale swamp that is British politics and put both Labour and the Tories far into the back seats where they belong.

 

 

 

 

Regarding a fresh Brexit referendum.

Without a more honest and more widespread discussion on the real issues, who knows what result a fresh referendum would bring? BUT there should be another - on the final exit terms at least - which we broadly know barring some major change in government.

Hard Brexit in short sharp hidden hops.

 

 

So lets have a look at a pole headlines as

Voters sense betrayal in Britain's Brexit heartlands

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-voters-insight-idUKKCN1AU15E

 

Well everybody feels betrayed dont they - does that mean they got it right LOL ???

Strange that the small towns who have lost their industries feel most betrayed (as alluded by the article) when they are the ones that will be most damaged by Brexit.

 

They perhaps think that the UK will re-vitalise the UK's industries as that is not only a logical, but a necessary choice if our nation is to survive let alone prosper post Brexit.

 

Yet I defy anyone to show that there is ANY evidence or plans for any 're-vitalisation' of British industry which should be well under way NOW,

or anything other than further sell-offs to foreign interests.

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly the article says that a YouGov poll this month showed of the Brexit voters:

 

No less than 61 percent of 'Leave' voters thought significant damage to the economy was a price worth paying to quit the EU."

 

Of course, that also means that 39% of Leave voters DONT think Brexit is worth significant damage to the UK economy.

 

Was there 39% of Leave voters who believed the completely unfounded lies (since demonstrated) of Johnson, Gove and Farage that business would be booming once the UK left the EU - and are now wiser?

Its a very valid interpretation of the poll

[tobyjugg2]

More grief for UK holidaying abroad exchanging money, and more to come

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/euroforecast

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/11/brexit-pain-for-holidaymakers-as-pound-set-to-fall-further-against-euro?subid=19389892&CMP=ema-3239

 

 

Pound now expected to drop BELOW parity with Euro

and export poor despite pounds effective 20+% drop (1.31 - 1.08) against the Euro

 

Bare in mind that these figures are money market exchange rates,

as already reported and linked here the pound is struggling to get more than a Euro for ordinary folk already.

 

Brexit rush for citizenship

 

Well yes, but look at who and where

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/brexit-uk-retirees-rushing-to-settle-in-europe-say-financial-advisers?subid=19389892&CMP=ema-3239

 

"British retirees are rushing to settle in European countries such as Spain, Portugal and France before the Brexit deadline, according to financial advisers"

 

 

 

 

 

Exports continue to struggle despite the massive fall in exchange rate making UK goods cheaper (until the higher imported materials prices really kicks in)

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/10/uk-exports-fell-june-despite-hopes-boost-sterlings-weakness/

 

and EU productivity and growth continues to leave the UK's far behind in the dust

EU growth 30% better than UK despite pounds 20%+ fall which even I expected to significantly boost exports temporarily)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/aug/01/markets-eurozone-growth-gdp-uk-manufacturing-bank-of-england-live

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-idUKKBN1AQ0WF

 

 

Well Brexiters - lets see some valid response...

 

* Housing market contracting despite poor availability

* UK GDP strained even before the banks and businesses move

* Inflation rising despite low oil prices

* Exports crap even with a collapsing pound making them cheap- so much for world trade

* Wages continually falling in real terms - except for the few

* Energy prices rising massively despite low energy costs

** USA has raised interest rates ...

 

 

and we haven't even left yet.

[tobyjugg2]

Once upon a time, in a fairytale land, Conmoron, the wicked Grande vizer of Wessex had a problem with a few of his courtiers and their powerful backers, so he came up with a cunning plan to shut them up.

He said to the people (hoping to spread fear in the hearts of his opponents) I will offer the people a simple in out choice of trading with our best partners, and abide by their choice.

They are bound to say yes, it would be stupid to say otherwise.

 

But the evil courtiers Borat the Johnson, Evil Wallace and Jacob Really-Smug said to the people:

NAY, That is no choice, WE can Have our cake, their cake and everyone elses cake, and WE can eat it too. WE shall be so rich, and the peoples of the World will bow down before US, and our apothecaries will be filled beyond measure with all they need to give health to US and WE shall receive all the wealth of the world.

Just vote for us and WE shall have all the milk and honey and cake, and WE shall all be rich, powerful and cared for beyond our wildest dreams.

 

Now the Grande Vizier was a lazy slob who thought he didn’t have to do anything to justify his word, carried on with his banquets and high life and deigned not to speak to the mortal fools he believed he owned.

So the people became confused hearing only the words of the treacherous courtiers who shouted their snake oil wares from rooftops while the wicked Vizier stood proud in his own arrogance.

and so the people believed the weasel tongued evil ones, and many shouted – I’ll have some of that, cant be worse than this son of sin we've already got.

 

And they voted, and it came to pass that the snake tongued evil ones overcame the idle evil one,

and so the people shouted YAAAYYYY – give us our milk and honey and cake from all the places of the world, and the extra £350M a week for our apothecaries.

 

But the milk and honey remained in other lands, and the evil ones squabbled over which of them should rule in stead of the Grande Vizier who had fled.

and The apothecaries became impoverished with bare shelves

And the people cried, where is our milk and honey, where is our apothecaries

And the evil ones said, we said 'we' and we have our milk and honey and cake, and we have no problems with OUR apothecaries. Be silent its what you voted for.

 

And it came to pass that the people started to grumble so loudly that the evil courtiers now said, ‘we better make it look like we are delivering some milk and honey. I’m sure everyone else will fall for our silken tongued words just like our pl-eople did.

 

 

So they called to the other nations of the world and said

We want cake, we want everybody’s cake – all the cake there is. We want to eat it and have it until we are sick of cake.

… And the other lands said, ‘No problem. Lets discuss payment for all this cake

 

But the evil courtiers had no money that they were prepared to divert from their own funds, so said ‘Don’t be stupid, just give us the cake’

And the other lands said ‘go forth and multiply’ and take with you this bill for the cake you’ve already had.

No more cake until you’ve paid for what you’ve already scoffed.

 

 

And so the evil courtiers fell back on their emergency plan and started shouting

We want cake, Give us cake

We want cake, Give us cake

We want cake, Give us cake

At the top of their voices

 

After a very short time the evil courtiers got tired and hungry, so stopped shouting.

 

Borat the Johnson said to the others ‘I’m hungry, got any cake?

And the others said, No we ate all ours ask those others

But when Borat looked around, those others who had cake had already left

 

But Borat said, lets shout some more, they might come back. So again the evil courtiers fell back on their emergency plan and started shouting

We want cake, Give us cake

We want cake, Give us cake

We want cake, Give us cake

At the top of their voices

 

But as the others had gone – they were the only ones hearing it.

So soon, they quickly got up and sneaking past the cashier saying they were just going to the toilet, they were annoyed to find angry crowd had gathered outside,

But Borat the johnson said. 'told you those water cannon would come in useful, Now where did I put them.

[honeybee13]

Is that all your own work, TJ?

 

HB

[tobyjugg2]

Is that all your own work, TJ?

 

HB

 

With a little inspiration from Hans Christian Anderson (and The Arabian Nights)

and the fantasy that the Brexit dept is spinning of course

I think it summarises the situation quite accurately.

 

It only took about 10 mins while I was waiting for heavy rain shower to stop - sure it shows.

I would tidy a few things up looking at it now.

 

[honeybee13]

Very impressive.

[tobyjugg2]

Rather surprised at the way the Guardian presents this

 

Leaving EU without deal would not be a disaster, says thinktank

 

Institute for Economic Affairs says UK should resort to WTO rules and strike free trade agreements with trading partners

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/18/leaving-eu-without-deal-would-not-be-a-disaster-says-thinktank?subid=19389892&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

 

 

 

So A neoconservative Thatcherite 'think tank' who promote free market 'business friendly' reform (deregulation)

- think that Brexit will be great with loads of US etc free trade. A concept already resoundingly debunked.

 

 

"The Institute of Economic Affairs was set up in the mid-1950s by Antony Fisher, an Old Etonian chicken farmer who had made his fortune by pioneering US battery farming techniques in the UK"

 

"the IEA has consistently promoted the view that deregulated intensive farming and unfettered 'free trade' are of great benefit to the environment"

 

"IEA has also campaigned against the ban on smoking in pubs and tobacco displays in shops. It published a report in 2010 claiming the ban on tobacco risks 'significant economic damage and a deterioration in public health'."

 

"The IEA enjoyed its highest influence during the right-wing Tory administration of Margaret Thatcher. Milton Friedman believes the IEA's intellectual influence was so strong that "the U-turn in British policy executed by Margaret Thatcher owes more to him (i.e., Fisher) than any other individual. [2]"

 

http://powerbase.info/index.php/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs

 

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs

 

 

 

 

Almost every other 'think tank' disagrees as already linked here.

[tobyjugg2]

and as May sets out the 'position' papers, No1 remains, as it was at the start

 

The British Pleblic MUST NOT be informed

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/21/uk-calls-on-eu-to-prevent-leaks-of-sensitive-information-after-brexit

 

"Demand for continued protection on departure highlights"

 

 

 

Other highlights

We want our cake and it eat on services and goods

Just accept our courts

Borders are your problem

What bill

 

No, then how about just pretending its extended for a while so we can say we've got our cake and eat it to the public. I promise not to ask for more extensions if I dont get back in power.

Yours Truly

T. May

[Guest]

a bit of recent info, either way

'Removing all trade tariffs and barriers would help generate an annual £135bn uplift to the UK economy, according to a group of pro-Brexit economists. A "hard" Brexit is "economically much superior to soft", argues Prof Patrick Minford, lead author of a report from Economists for Free Trade.....Other economists say cutting barriers sets off a "race to the bottom".'

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

 

'The UK government has set out proposals to ensure trade in goods and services can continue on the day the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.....'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40997985

[tobyjugg2]

a bit of recent info, either way

'Removing all trade tariffs and barriers would help generate an annual £135bn uplift to the UK economy, according to a group of pro-Brexit economists. A "hard" Brexit is "economically much superior to soft", argues Prof Patrick Minford, lead author of a report from Economists for Free Trade.....Other economists say cutting barriers sets off a "race to the bottom".'

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40997985][/url]

 

Fantasy that Simply aint going to happen. Like May saying 'ambitious' aka 'pipe dream' 'wants' that the EU have already said are not on the table.

 

We want open borders and no tariffs

we promise not to ship Chinese steel and goods and bleached American chicken etc through them into the EU, honest

... but if we do we don't answer to the ECJ anyway so shut up about it

... Oh and we dont want to pay like your members do despite no tariffs as we aren't a member

So we want to do what we like with no cost and you EU prats just say thank you

 

Complete codswallop from a few very biased ultra right wing 'think tanks' as already demonstrated and as shown on Reuters every day.

 

 

'The UK government has set out proposals to ensure trade in goods and services can continue on the day the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.....'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40997985

 

Of course trade will continue unless OUR government makes it effectively impossible (in international trade terms) BUT on what terms is the issue.

 

BUT BUT Finance and services passporting is looking more and more a very very distant pipe dream and why the heck would the EU let deregulated, unanswerable foreign companies loose in an area where they are INCREASING their own regulation now the UK can't block it?

 

Looking more and more like WTO rules for most remaining UK companies all with major border issues,

the car industries either relocated to EU or MAYBE with a reciprocal trade deal like Japan,

Finance and services companies relocated to the EU. and any remaining UK finance and services treated just like India.

 

Finance and services is often shown as a full third of our nations business, and consider what a couple of percent fall causes ...

 

 

 

Dyson I hear some murmer: Oh dear:

https://qz.com/948041/dyson-sakti3-tesla-battery-patents/

 

UK government promise to inject £250m into battery development (promise LOL peanuts)

https://www.ft.com/content/861473fe-46f5-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

 

 

Cameron and May are overseeing the final fall of the UK from being a world power.

[tobyjugg2]

A REMINDER FROM HISTORY

 

http://www.economist.com/node/7218678

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/mar/14/past.education1

[tobyjugg2]

and now 'border' reality starting to bite even before the borders and tariffs are in place

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/21/how-does-the-irish-border-affect-the-brexit-talks

 

"A drop in the value of the pound since the EU referendum has made Irish exports to Britain less competitive, and some smaller businesses have already gone bust. (They would need to increase the price to make the same (or any) profit. Standard EU tariffs will balance this making UK products less competitive protecting their member and leaving the UK producers without any local external market)

 

 

 

If tariffs are imposed (tit for tat) after Brexit, then Irish goods, in the same way as other European goods, will become (even) less competitive (in the UK). There is talk of some businesses having to move to Northern Ireland or to places such as Wales in order to survive." (or trade elsewhere)

(so as you can see - Brexit is devastating to Irish-UK trade)

 

(comments in brackets are mine)

[tobyjugg2]

Reuters Commentary: Britain’s deluded hopes for a painless free-trade deal

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-wallace-brexit-commentary/commentary-britains-deluded-hopes-for-a-painless-free-trade-deal-idUKKCN1BG232

"Watching the slow-motion crash of Britain’s exit negotiations with the European Union is a disconcerting experience. A state that once ran a global empire is looking second-rate as the government’s implausible expectations about what it may be able to achieve in the talks are dashed."

 

'The British lack of realism, especially about vital future trading arrangements with the EU (or elsewhere), reflects divisions within a government weakened after Prime Minister Theresa May lost her Conservative majority at the general election in June. But it also shows the government’s dismaying lack of historical and strategic understanding about how Britain lost its clout outside the European club more than half a century ago."

[tobyjugg2]

I'll copy it here.

Clause 6 of the great repelling quite clearly states no ECJ (EUCJ) from exit date in 2019.

 

This quite clearly means no real transition deal as the EU will require any exit deal with the EU to be monitored under the EUCJ, otherwise, they would quite rightly consider the UK an external country with no EU deals, and not an exiting country given time to manage the exit process. The latter thay have shown every willingness to allow, the former certainly not.

 

More of the UK cake and eat it which simply wont happen. The EU's primary focus is the protection of the EU so they simply wont commit economic suicide by giving some awkward brits benefits better than their members - just like any club.

 

Its seems a rather stupid UK ploy to not pay, no rules - but all the benefits

... just for a while, a while longer, just a bit longer. forget all the breaches we are doing - just a year a two more .....

 

FFS. is this what british politics and negotiation skills have degenerated too?

Wait until these twosirs (Davis and Fox) line up against China, Japan, India, The USA - who have no interest whatsoever in doing us any favours or cutting us any slack - unlike the EU.

 

 

 

As May is just lining up for all but simple repealing and hard brexit (despite that being what will in effect happen)

- why doesn't she just stop weeing around and put that to parliament and the people, or even just parliament, or even just her own MP's ...........

 

See how long she would last - 24 hours? 12?

[Consumer dude]

The EU is broken and the party is over.

[honeybee13]

Which party, CD? IMO at this stage, it's rather the UK that's broken.

 

HB

[tobyjugg2]

Which party, CD? IMO at this stage, it's rather the UK that's broken.

 

HB

 

Absolutely

 

EU growth is 30% higher than the UK's (which is only as strong as it is as we are still linked to the EU)

 

The euro is so strong they are now looking at raising interests rates to both slow its strength and put more priority to saving rather than cheap loan stimulus and the risk of boom/bust - which the UK is carrying on with . (see other thread for debt crisis building in UK)

 

The EU holds all the cards in the negotiations, and is gaining more cards everyday (trade deal with Japan that our politicians are still saying Japan will be begging us for)

 

The EU holds all the Irish border cards

They will allow something like trader/partner status for local Irish businesses to trade with other local Irish businesses across the border if necessary, and leave the rest to the UK. The EU will just manage what comes into the EU.

Let May explain that to UK Irish businesses that want to just sell across the border why they have to pay WTO tariffs at every border cross their products make.

 

 

The UK has Theresa May, Daffy Davies, Liam Fox (what has he done?) and some Henry VIII bypass parliament option that parliament will hopefully trounce before they are trounced by it.

 

Wish I had the option to get an Irish passport - I would.

[Consumer dude]

I assume the normal person accepts the democratic vote ?.

[honeybee13]

What if the result of the vote was based on untruths, CD?

[Consumer dude]

What if the result of the vote was based on untruths, CD?

 

What untruths would they be ?.

[honeybee13]

Well, there was the extra £350m for the NHS and saying we wouldn't come under the European Court to quote only two.

[Consumer dude]

I just get fed up of hearing that the losing side isn't happy but yet we had the vote and we decided as a majority to come out so why don't we just get on with it.

[cjcregg]

I just get fed up of hearing that the losing side isn't happy but yet we had the vote and we decided as a majority to come out so why don't we just get on with it.

 

 

It is a fundamental principle of democracy that provides you the right to express unhappiness with any decision.

[honeybee13]

The TUC thinks that workers' rights are best protected by staying in the single market.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/11/brexit-workers-rights-best-secured-by-staying-in-single-market-says-tuc-chief?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=243115&subid=7192694&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[unclebulgaria67]

I assume the normal person accepts the democratic vote ?.

 

Yes until there is another democratic vote which changes the position. Which is why i favour a second referendum, where i think a majority would vote to stay in the EU.

 

The EU referendum held in 2016 was based on a lot of misinformation.