The European Union.....In or Out?

[tobyjugg2]

I'm not sure who these 'many people' are.

 

I dont think Putin has to do much at all to destibilise Europe, with Britains lead, Europeans are doing that very well without (despite?) Putin.

 

I think the EU is moving more towards accommodations with Russia, which will speed up if Britain leaves the EU. It the natural next big step for the EU, far more than adding Turkey ( seen Erdogans recent statements on womans place breeding to increase the population !!)

 

Making them a partner sharing in growth and stability, and making their prosperity dependent on your own is far more effective management than making them an enemy.

 

 

worth expanding on Ford, particularly given :

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/11/politics/nato-missile-defense-romania-poland/

 

Make no mistake, despite being touted as nato sites, these are US sites in Poland and Romania manned exclusively by US:

"Eklund (a spokesman for the U.S. Navy.) told CNN that the facility will be manned by approximately 130 U.S. sailors. The inaugural ceremony for the new system will be attended by top U.S. and NATO military officials.

 

 

"Russia believes the missile defense system breaches a 1987 agreement it signed with the U.S."

 

"Russia has previously suggested that it could retaliate for the missile defense system by stationing S-300 surface-to-air missile systems in Crimea and Kaliningrad, its European enclave located between Poland and Lithuania."

 

 

 

When you consider that the prospect of Russian missiles being stationed in Cuba almost brought America to unleash nuclear Armageddon on the world (thank god for Kennedy), it seems a completely unreasonable escalation.

[Conniff]

Talk to who we want, trade with who we want, the country big, strong and prosperous again. Taxes reduced, wages increased, people free and happy once more.

 

And not forgetting the 5% reduction on domestic fuel.

[unclebulgaria67]

Serious question - What happens if the outcome of the referendum is a virtual draw ? If the polls are accurate, in terms of percentages, the result might be 50/50 or 51/49 either way.

 

If the result does not give a clear win to leave the EU, i very much doubt government or parliament will be able to proceed to start negotiation to leave the EU or pass any required legislation. This will leave Brexiters very unhappy and those Tories currently plotting against Cameron will either join UKIP or try to replace Cameron.

 

I am completely fed up with the EU debate, but few are talking about what happens after the referendum result. I very much doubt the referendum will resolve tensions over Europe and splits in the Tory party.

[fletch70]

Talk to who we want, trade with who we want, the country big, strong and prosperous again. Taxes reduced, wages increased, people free and happy once more.

 

And not forgetting the 5% reduction on domestic fuel.

 

Conniff, why do you keep harping on about 5% tax on fuel, where does your belief that it will be abolished come from?

 

Where is ANY evidence that the country will become stronger and more prosperous once again, we are already the 5th largest economy according to the World bank and the IMF those well known 'independent' International organisations.

 

I will concede that no one knows what will happen if we leave although most agree , on both sides, that there will be a sustained period of financial difficulties and further recession if we leave. Equally no one knows what will happen if we stay although if we want the EU to remain intact we need to be on the inside forcing reform.

 

In addition there is absolutely no evidence that tax will reduce and wages increase although in or out I predict the divide between rich and poor will continue to grow.

 

There is an awful lot that is wrong in this country but leaving the EU will not fix it.

 

Unclebulgaria

 

the odds of a tie are minimal and highly unlikely but the result is going to be binding unless our politicians continue doing what they normally do and lie

 

How can you tell if a politician is lieing?

His/her lips are moving

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

The referendum result is not binding on government or parliament. There is not a majority in parliament in favour of the UK leaving the EU. Both the House of Commons and Lords might not back any government legislation regarding implementing EU withdrawal.

 

A Brexit win would lead to a new Tory leader/PM, a vote of no confidence in parliament and an election in 2017. The fixed term parliament act does not prevent a government moving a vote of no confidence and going for an early election. Given that Corbyn is Labour leader, i think any new Tory PM would fancy a bigger majority government.

[fletch70]

Hi UB

Oops I was wrong, it just shows what happens when you take at face value the thoughts of people you trust.

 

I do agree with you that should the no vote win, we will have a new PM, not sure if there will be a vote of no confidence in the government calling a new election because the tories do have a majority. It would be interesting though when we consider the popular support for the labour party and the resurgence to some extent of the Lib Dems. It does seem that people are beginning to realise that the Lib Dems were able to temper the excesses of a rather right wing government

 

They are interesting times that we live in.

 

When push comes to shove the only way to maintain short and medium term stability is for a stay vote

 

I suspect that many tories are playing with their careers , vote no , remove the moron, promote themselves, think they will negotiate a better deal with europe and then stay. Boris the buffoon is certainly playing that game.

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

There is a problem you allude to, which is that people on the vote 'leave' side want different things. Some including Boris want to use a leave vote to renegotiate membership and hold a further referendum. There are others who simply wish to leave the EU and are not bothered about the exit negotiations with the EU, believing that the EU will agree a deal that gives most current membership benefits, without any conditions, because of the value of EU exports to the UK.

 

Brexit is a gamble because no one can predict what will happen. If the value of the pound drops, it will be bad for the UK, because we import more than we export. Most economists think that the pound will drop in value and this is evidenced by a drop just because Brexit took a lead in polls.

 

If the UK votes to remain narrowly, it gives Cameron a chance to negotiate further EU reform, because he can say to other leaders that the UK public want reform given how narrow his win to remain was. Given the state of the EU economies and various issues being faced, it is pretty likely there will be demand for significant reforms in other countries.

[fletch70]

Indeed, I can see some changes about immigration into the EU being announced between now and the referendum.

 

What I find most annoying is that from people I talk to, and remember this is Birmingham and I live near Leicester; When people talk about immigration they do not mean EU immigration, they are referring to non EU immigration be that from the Middle East or former colonies -interpret that as you wish.

 

I was watching a TV program last night (not sure exactly when it was on) about food and they visited a large Leek producer. Guess what, the workers there were Eastern Europeans who will work for minimum wage on 0 hours contracts. If we were to leave , either these crops would not get picked (although I think that the DWP would put slave labour in there) or the wages would rise significantly so that the costs would go up leaving us with a dilemma, import cheaper food from another country or impose tariffs.

 

the EU is the worlds second biggest economy after the USA , can we really afford the risk of alienating them , especially with the chance of a fart oops I mean a Trump being president

[determindator]

I thought The PM was planning his own exit in 2017. In that case won't be a vote of no confidence and he won't be in power to block new implementations.

 

With regards to Ireland it would need border control.

[unclebulgaria67]

I thought The PM was planning his own exit in 2017. In that case won't be a vote of no confidence and he won't be in power to block new implementations.

 

With regards to Ireland it would need border control.

 

No, Cameron has not stated when he would go. An unknown number of Tory MP's want Cameron to resign after a Brexit vote. I suspect Cameron would resign and it would be a contest between Boris and Theresa May for new leader/PM. There is no majority in parliament to support necessary changes to implement Brexit. Therefore, i suspect either Boris or Theresa would think about triggering an early election before the boundary review due in 2018 and before Corbyn is dumped by Labour.

 

The situation in regard to borders within Ireland would not require changes.

[tobyjugg2]

and of course regarding this oh so valuable trade deals Borarse would negotiate after Brexit - even Tories are opposed to them (shows there are a few decent ones left)

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/queens-speech-tory-rebels-nhs-ttip-amendment_uk_573d7c47e4b058ab71e63f1c

 

Queen’s Speech 2016: Tory MPs To Join Labour On Amendment Exempting NHS From EU-US Trade Deal

 

Lilley, a former Trade and Industry Secretary, said: “I support free trade. But TTIP introduces special courts which are not necessary for free trade, will give American multinationals the right to sue our government (but not vice versa) and could put our NHS at risk. I cannot understand why the government has not tried to exclude the NHS.

 

 

Just shows when the main Tories will fight tooth and nail to protect the city financiers pay, bonuses and protection from prosecution with the EU (the pre brexit vote renegotiation as linked many times) but would throw the NHS to the dogs without a murmur.

That is what Brexit will bring us.

[Conniff]

People in Britain lose an average of £450 a year because prices are higher as a result of EU membership.

 

The EU ensures that imported goods only meet European quality standards which are lower than the UK standards.

 

Leaving the EU would see energy bills drop by £500m

 

Most of the UK's gas imports come from Norway – Britain is not dependent on Russia

 

The Common Fisheries Policy has devastated the British fishing industry

 

Britain pays more for the CAP than it gets back so leaving the EU would make more money available for UK farmers

 

Many British farmers would be wealthier without the burden of the CAP

 

The EU’s Common Fisheries Policy has devastated the British fishing industry.

 

Membership of Nato and the UN Security Council are more important to Britain’s defence than the EU

 

The EU interferes with defence procurement and wants to set up its own army

 

Britain would have more influence on the world stage as an independent country

 

Total net migration to the UK is running at over 300,000 a year despite the government’s target of cutting it to under 100,000

 

It is impossible to control immigration as a member of the EU

 

Public services are under strain because of the number of migrants

 

High immigration has driven down wages for British workers

 

Being in the EU makes it easier for terrorists to come to the UK

 

Supremacy of EU courts makes it harder to deport violent criminals

 

Terror attacks in Paris and Brussels have brought security to the centre of the debate showing that the open borders mean they can wander wherever they want.

 

Most UK laws are made in Brussels

 

Other member states can force through decisions against the UK’s wishes

 

The British government has repeatedly been defeated in cases brought to the ECJ

 

Leaving the EU is the only way to regain our sovereignty

 

The UK has to apply EU directives. EU regulations are binding

 

UK companies would be freed from the burden of EU regulation

 

Trade with EU countries would continue because we import more from them than we export to them

 

Britain would be able to negotiate its own trade deals with other countries

 

Trade negotiations with other parts of the world are conducted by the EU, not individual member states

 

Unemployment is over 10% in the EU, almost double the rate in the UK which is why we are being invaded

[fletch70]

Conniff

You have made many claims but provided no evidence

 

Now I know that evidence is hard to come by but maybe you should do more than read the DM before quoting

 

Is it not a good thing that there is a court that can over rule both EU regulations and actions of individual countries, the biggest problem is it is so slow

 

We have not lost our sovereignty, it still remains in westminster. If we had lost it there would be no way of leaving the EU

 

personally I am thankful for many many EU laws, employment rights . civil rights , equality .

[fletch70]

I find it odd how people hold up the likes of Norway as a great example but if I were to suggest our tax and welfare system were to be like theirs , some would be screaming about injustice.

[Conniff]

No one has provided any evidence, so why should I be different.

 

If DM is referring to the Daily Mirror, that has to be the biggest insult one person can say to another. I would never ever read this massively left wing paper, even more left wing than the Morning Star and Vladimir Putin.

 

It's not good that foreign courts can overrule British courts. This is a democracy and in a democracy the people elect a government to make laws and regulations, we have elected not one single person in Europe that makes the laws we 'must' obey.

 

We have lost our sovereignty, we can't decide what we want, Europe can override us. In or Out has nothing to do with sovereignty.

 

Any laws or / and rights would have happened anyway without the EU poking their self interested noses in.

[fletch70]

Of course you know that the actual insult was you reading the Daily Mail, as for the Mirror, well that has about the same quality of journalism as the Daily Wail

 

Are you really so gullible to think that the right wing that is the Tory party actually care about workers or workers rights, well they do so long as it increases profits for the bourgeoisie

 

I am still waiting for some evidence for the claims that you make

 

In one breath you say that our standards and rights would be the same or better without the EU , then you say that businesses are constrained by EU regulation, you simply can not have it both ways

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

Agree. Most right wingers pro Brexit are nationalists who seek more power for their own purposes.

 

If there is a significant win for Brexit it means Cameron will be gone and a new PM by the Autumn. Then the problems will really begin, as there is no consensus on the leave side as to what they want to achieve in terms of agreements with the EU, staying part of European Court of Human Rights etc. It will be a complete mess and i suspect some current Tory MP's will become independents with the government losing their majority. Then there will be an early election. If Labour gets rid of Corbyn, then they have a chance of forming the next government before 2020.

[obiter dictum]

People are getting fed up by these myths being peddled from either camp. Everyone has access to Google and it is quite easy to get the true facts. The majority of the UK population are simply not gullible enough to actually believe what comes from our Tabloids and internet forums.

[fletch70]

People are getting fed up by these myths being peddled from either camp. Everyone has access to Google and it is quite easy to get the true facts. The majority of the UK population are simply not gullible enough to actually believe what comes from our Tabloids and internet forums.

 

I agree that lies and half truths are being peddled by either side however , google may or may not be impartial in that it will bring up reports, articles and comments from people who have an agenda and we do not know exactly how it is configured. You also say that the UK population are not gullible , however it is widely reported the Sun, of all papers, had a decisive part to play in the Conservative victories of 79,83,87,92 but also in the Blair victory of 97.

 

By the way, not everyone has access to google, there is a sizeable minority in this country who have no internet access at all.

 

UB as you say, people are also not sure what a brevet means,we were a founder of the ECHR (under a Conservative I believe) but that has nothing to do with the EU so when people say they want to leave the EU because of HR , firstly they are ignorant of the facts and secondly I believe that they people I would rather not know.

 

As for Corbyn, well I believe he has integrity and is also a sign of the polarisation of british and european politics but I sadly concede that he may not be the right person for an electable labour party although a new labour of Blair is not much better than the right wing we have now.

[Conniff]

Of course you know that the actual insult was you reading the Daily Mail, as for the Mirror, well that has about the same quality of journalism as the Daily Wail

 

Are you really so gullible to think that the right wing that is the Tory party actually care about workers or workers rights, well they do so long as it increases profits for the bourgeoisie

 

I am still waiting for some evidence for the claims that you make

 

In one breath you say that our standards and rights would be the same or better without the EU , then you say that businesses are constrained by EU regulation, you simply can not have it both ways

 

Wrong again, I don't read any newspapers, so now how do you feel ?

 

By the way, not everyone has access to google, there is a sizeable minority in this country who have no internet access at all.

 

Not my problem.

[tobyjugg2]

Conniff

You have made many claims but provided no evidence

 

Now I know that evidence is hard to come by but maybe you should do more than read the DM before quoting

 

LOL

 

Don't you mean the worst bits from Borarses 'through the looking glass' manifesto?

Not even up to Farages standards. Farage at least has some good solid points.

 

 

I'll just disprove a couple of Conniffs ramblings (cant be bothered to keep disproving his rubbish time and again):

 

Norway still has to abide by the EU 4 fundamental rights including free movement, and also has to implement EU law, and negotiates its deals via the European Free Trade Area (EFTA)

as stated by Vidar Elgesen (Norwegian EU minister) and Nikolai Astrup (Norwegian Conservative Party spokesman EU affairs)

 

 

Norwegian Green Energy at 2B cost, hopefully by 2021 - maybe? if it doesnt over-run in time and cost (fat chance)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSN_Link

 

 

Gas?

Gas we get from EU is 21% Norwegian and 33% Russian

From the horses mouth:

http://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/our-world-of-energy/energys-grand-journey/where-does-uk-gas-come-from

[cjcregg]

Any laws or / and rights would have happened anyway without the EU poking their self interested noses in.

 

 

All the best pro consumer legislation in the UK over the last 20 years has been as a direct result of EU Directives. Saying that they would have been enacted anyway simply isn't credible.

[fletch70]

Conniff

 

I feel fine, thanks for asking. Bit stressed with revision and stuff but otherwise ok

 

The comments you made were typical of the Daily Wail as is your comment 'not my problem' about people with no access to the internet. Nice of you to comment although it wasn't a response to any of your points.

 

On the gas point, if we were to totally sever ties with the EU we won;d have to renegotiate deals on 44% of our gas supplies. As the volume would be lower, in a free market economy , which the likes of Conniff are so in favour of , the price would probably rise for us - economies of scale, big purchasers get better deals etc , then of course we become more open to the threat of the supply being cut off, maybe if as a member of the P5 we went against Russia in the security council.

 

It is claimed that we could trade with the U.S., but remember it was the U.S. that wanted an EU in the first place and also a single currency, so maybe , as Obama said, we would drop down the list of priorities

 

We know this is done by Russia as they have cut supplies to Ukraine in the past

 

Frankly , I would rather be a member of Europe because it provides, peace and security and like it of not we have not been a great power since 1945. Yes there was a time that Britain shouted Jump and the rest of the world asked how high but that is not currently the case, maybe in a hundred years it will be but not now.

[Conniff]

In 2005, the five largest EU economies accounted for 27% of global banking assets. In 2050, that share will have decreased to 12.5%. Meanwhile, the BRIC countries’ share of these assets will have increased from 7.9% in 2005 to 32.9% in 2050. Hence, the benefits to London of acting as the gateway to Europe are becoming less convincing, and the need to keep the door open to emerging markets elsewhere across the globe far more important.

[tobyjugg2]

In 2005, the five largest EU economies accounted for 27% of global banking assets. In 2050, that share will have decreased to 12.5%. Meanwhile, the BRIC countries’ share of these assets will have increased from 7.9% in 2005 to 32.9% in 2050. Hence, the benefits to London of acting as the gateway to Europe are becoming less convincing, and the need to keep the door open to emerging markets elsewhere across the globe far more important.

 

Howls with laughter

 

You mean the EU is REGULATING BANKS AND TAX HAVENS to try to prevent further collapses despite Conmoron negotiating protection for 'The City of LOONdon' from these necessarily and sensible limitations on their abuses.

 

Brexit - that protection is out of the window and the 'City' will need to find new marks to play.

 

Bremain - There will be hard negotiating, but EU brakes will steadily be applied to the corrupt City of London Financiers.

 

BUT In or out - the UK taxpayer will pay for the City of Loondons financial misdeeds as it always has until we get a government that will bite the bullet, accept the reduction in our Nations false GDP and bring these bar-stewards into line..

 

(or the rest of the world bans them anyway and the 'City' ends up in Nigeria - where it belongs)

ooops they cant go to Nigeria can they, they have stolen Billions from them and would be shot on entry.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/nigeria-not-seeking-cameron-apology-wants-assets-back