UK Power supplies Winter 2022/2023. Are you prepared ?

[tobyjugg2]

I've put the effort in, surely the issue is important enough to expect some simple basic intelligence applied in response?

- Not required of course, which as i stated IMO reflects more on the lacks of the person posting unvetted links without even a brief summary  of the posters point in posting the link.

 

Happy to discuss the linked paper should unc actually make a point to discuss with reference to it ...

 

.. seems mainly very complex assumption based financial modelling which is based on figures already dramatically divergent from current reality - even ASIDE from it mainly using the large scale US models which has already been evidenced as divergent.

Point?

 

I have no issue with quite detailed but speculative financial modelling provided the referring POINT is made.

.. even when it deals only with projected cost of extraction based on US models and potential break even Kw costs, and a seems to avoid actual physical differences.

Point?

 

So @unclebulgaria67what is your point in posting a link to some out of date, incomplete and very speculative financial modelling on models of shale gas break even points from Manchester University

 

 

I'm still waiting some credible, perhaps even apparently intelligence applied response to the links and case I have posted to contradict uncs claim of as many pros as cons

.. the only real 'pro' which single point actually has a number of cons of there will be some unknown amount 'more' very limited, very dirty gas and oil that just adds to the problems of cost, capacity, and damage to our only home

 

 

 

and @theoldrouge

What pros would they be?

Details and credible support please, with any discounting of the detailed but readable links I have posted exampled and cross referred.

Quite simple and very basic.

 

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Just a point about holding a discussion and what to avoid.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Don't pretend to have the level of knowledge on fracking and other forms of energy supply.

 

Will leave that to experts who produce the various publications.  Hence posting links to the publications.

 

I don't have to go through all of the information to debate it on here and I certainly do not have to agree or disagree with the viewpoints of other posters to this site or those who publish articles on a subject.

 

Just because Government have made an annoucement that mentioned fracking does not mean that it is going to happen.  Personally I cannot see it happening, as there will be too much local opposition and companies will be reluctant to invest money, as the risk v reward position is very unclear.

[honeybee13]

UB, I also know very little about energy production, I try to seek out articles and research papers who do know what they're talking about.

 

But I can't see how fracking is going to solve the problem with such a long run-in time when things like windmills, solar, etc, could be effective and cleaner much earlier.

[unclebulgaria67]

Agree HB.  Very complex subject and I have not read any expert suggesting that fracking would deliver viable supplies within the time period required.  UK needs enviromentally friendly reliable sources of energy and many of these could be installed fairly quickly e.g. onshore/offshore wind and solar. 

 

Another possibilty could be Anaerobic Digestion to produce bio gas ?

 

Anaerobic digestion - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Don't pretend to have the level of knowledge on fracking and other forms of energy supply.

 

Will leave that to experts who produce the various publications.  Hence posting links to the publications.

 

I don't have to go through all of the information to debate it on here and I certainly do not have to agree or disagree with the viewpoints of other posters to this site or those who publish articles on a subject.

 

Ok

I'll go out of my way to explain or debate a point, but I'm NOT going to be kind or gentle when someone posts that sort of crap without backing it up, especially when they simply don't have anything to back it up, especially when they then double down on ... nothing

This issue is FAR too important to let it pass, or allow what effectively is (whether meant or not) meaningless sniping to cast shadows.

 

So in reality, you are aware of no defined pros?

- Apart from -  .. if we ignore every other consideration its pretty much certain there would be some fracked oil and gas and someone somewhere would likely make a profit from it, even if that profit was largely generated by tax breaks and taxpayer funding - with every other consideration aside - is accepted.

BUT Of course, the other considerations are critical

 

 

 

Happy to discuss and likely trounce any pros you would care to support @theoldrouge .. probably very unkindly if they have already been evidenced as crap and you dont provide some credible support for a change in perspective

Edited September 11, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

UB, I also know very little about energy production, I try to seek out articles and research papers who do know what they're talking about.

 

 

and repeatedly demonstrated you actually read them

 

(cheers and applause)

[tobyjugg2]

"Figures from Ember, a UK environmental think-tank, show that the European Union generated 12 per cent of its electricity from solar between May and August this year, up from 9 per cent during the same period in 2021.

 

The record 99.4 TWh of electricity generated from solar energy helped save roughly €29 billion in fossil gas imports, according Ember’s research."

 

Now the UK is doing well despite the populists. Wonder how much renewable energy would reduce the fossil fuel bill (and risk)  if just £10 billion in windfall tax from the energy companies were invested in UK renewables?

(rather than 'hoping they would invest some rather than give it to foreign shareholders)

(FAR FAR less excess profit that the energy companies had made even a month ago)

 

Energy crisis sees solar power generation hit EU record

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

‘Every megawatt of energy generated by solar and renewables is fewer fossil fuels we need from Russia,’ says policy director

 

[labrat]

I wonder how much renewables would produce if homes were allowed to put wind turbines on in the same way as solar

 

At the moment it's a fight through planning permission, and despite the fact I would be happy to have a turbine on (and have brackets for a pole already on the house) I can't be bothered to fight through it

[unclebulgaria67]

How much energy would a typical home wind turbine produce ?

 

How much would a wind turbine cost to install including any storage batteries ?

[brassnecked]

Some info here  UB hidden costs and other issues

 

The Complete Guide to Small Wind Turbines For Your Home

WWW.THEECOEXPERTS.CO.UK

---

Did you know that you can get wind turbines for your home? Read our complete guide on small wind turbines for your home here.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Darn good link that @BN giving some real summary info.

 

 

Slightly larger  and related to two prior links

 

The energy changes that could save the world ‘at least’ $12 trillion

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Idea that going green is expensive is ‘just wrong’, Oxford research team says

 

[tobyjugg2]

6 hours ago, labrat said:

I wonder how much renewables would produce if homes were allowed to put wind turbines on in the same way as solar

 

At the moment it's a fight through planning permission, and despite the fact I would be happy to have a turbine on (and have brackets for a pole already on the house) I can't be bothered to fight through it

 

I know someone who did that on an isolated property

- moved it down the yard onto an outbuilding

vibration/thrumming which was very noticeable to start with - and quickly got worse

 

Relatives in Oz have had old water wind turbines generating electricity for over half a century, and the practice was old then.

[tobyjugg2]

EU to impose windfall tax on energy firms to curb soaring prices

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Ursula von der Leyen says it is wrong for companies top make huge profits due to Ukraine war

 

 

Ursula von der Leyen says it is wrong for companies top make huge profits due to Ukraine war

Edited September 14, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Just a point on those EU proposals

 

"Non-fossil fuels electricity generation would also be subject to an excess revenue cap. Under this element of the draft proposal, wind, solar, and nuclear plants would have a revenue cap of 180 euros ($180) per megawatt hour (MWh), with any excess skimmed off by national governments."

 

and too right. Shows you don't have to be a fossil fuel seller to capitalise on war and misery ... it just helps (sic)

 

The issues/sanctions (however ineffective) with Russian gas dont just NOT make it any more expensive for Shell and BP to extract oil and gas

- it also most certainly doesn't make sunshine or wind any more expensive.

 

Next, our 'partner' India needs to be hit with sanctions due to their undermining Russia sanctions to their own and Russias profit.

[tobyjugg2]

Just a little point, as yet there are still a large number of (true) Torys who support our climate pledges .. for now, despite the quite successful populist attempts to shut them up.

 

"In the Conservative Party, a major rift between MPs exists between those who support climate action and those who don’t.

These warring factions include the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), which has the support of 133 Tory MPs, accounting for half of backbench MPs, and supports government action to reduce emissions, invest in the green economy and reach the 2050 net zero target.

 

Opposing this group is a smaller, but highly influential group of MPs who are part of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, which has a number of links to the UK’s most prominent climate science denial organisation – the Global Warming Policy Foundation – founded by former Conservative chancellor Nigel Lawson."

 

 

Why Liz Truss’s big fracking plan will not cut energy bills

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

The Tories’ emotional bond with hydrocarbons and the wealth they once brought now defies reason, writes Harry Cockburn

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

UK gas-powered electricity is now costing the government an incredible nine times more to buy than electricity from renewables.

Meanwhile, there is no debate that UK fracking and new gas can reduce sky-high bills for consumers. As Ms Truss’s new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng previously noted while business and energy secretary: "Even if we lifted the fracking moratorium tomorrow, it would take up to a decade to extract sufficient volumes – and it would come at a high cost for communities and our precious countryside.

 

and for the Truss 'patron saint of doodoo spouting' worshipers, Dont just take my word. Dramatically undersold but :

 

 

KWASI KWARTENG: Switch to our own power supplies is a win-win for everyone - except Putin  | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

KWASI KWARTENG: Mail on Sunday readers will have been horrified by the images emerging from Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is using every weapon at...

 

"we also need to look at hydrogen – the new super fuel – to combat Russian gas."

"With the global low-carbon hydrogen economy set to be worth £530 billion by 2050, this booming market is ours for the taking.

Importantly, these clean technologies will also give our industrial heartlands new leases of life, with millions of new, skilled jobs for British workers, while also cutting energy bills."

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Sounds promising!

 

‘Game-changing’ new battery charges in 3 minutes and lasts 20 years

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Harvard professor describes technology as ‘a new battery paradigm’ for electric vehicles

 

[tobyjugg2]

probably a loooongs ways off yet - discovered/developed on QM principals - like GPS systems. The recent stuff seems a noticeable step though - not as much a step as qubit quantum processing has so far made unless theres a lot more than reported.

 

As an aside I made concerted efforts on a couple of occasions to 'get' QM, failed miserably, although I do 'get' a number of the principals.

Interesting that despite my utterly believing that it is simply missing something  (apparently common in those who do as well as those who dont get it - but I am unable to put it aside ) along with a few side experiments the associated science also leads to stronger support for 'spooky action at a distance' aka quantum entanglement - something which my entire belief and experience says is rubbish - even at a quantum level, let alone in the 'macroverse' of matter.

 

Back to the entanglement of politics

Worth keeping an eye on this as most of the western sanctions breakers (India, Turkey etc) and Iran with be active there. What has Russia lost of its influence?

 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and expectations: Dawn contributor

WWW.STRAITSTIMES.COM

---

The writer says the SCO conference is taking place at a critical time in an atmosphere of fast-changing geopolitics. Read more at straitstimes.com.

 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Exclusive: leaked report for government says reducing and predicting risk ‘remains a scientific challenge’

 

Liz Truss to lift fracking ban ‘despite little progress on earthquake risk’ | Fracking | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Exclusive: leaked report for government says reducing and predicting risk ‘remains a scientific challenge’

 

[tobyjugg2]

aka they haven't and can't

and probably were just looking for something half way credible that claimed they could - and failed

 

There are NO benefits and it wont reduce price or make any difference to the UK's energy problem for at least years to come and even then slower and more expensive than investing in renewables

- per kwazi even if you don't want to accept the science

 

[theoldrouge]

IMO Truss first mistake was to give Kwasi a job 

The key fact from that report 

“Given other industries are allowed to create earthquakes of higher magnitudes than fracking”

so that particular negative can be safely ignored 

[honeybee13]

What about the huge quantities of water and toxic chemicals that are also involved in fracking, though? And the time that it will take to see any gas come out of the ground?

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, theoldrouge said:

IMO Truss first mistake was to give Kwasi a job 

The key fact from that report 

“Given other industries are allowed to create earthquakes of higher magnitudes than fracking”

so that particular negative can be safely ignored 

 

Support that with detail, amount, cost/risk vs benefits etc ... if it aint just more of your childish gaslighting

 

- Start with coal mines if you like ...

Perhaps follow with dam building -  scale for an issue cost/risk vs benefits etc

then tidal barrages ..

 

or just skulk away from the gaslight back wherever ..

.. because then we'll get to solar and wind and what earthquakes they DON't generate.

Edited September 16, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

So, expecting nothing from the gaslighter(s), heres a report

 

Fracking is not once, but twice up there with nuclear explosions, deep mining and building mega-dams on fault lines

 

5 Human Activities That Can Cause Earthquakes - WorldAtlas

WWW.WORLDATLAS.COM

---

As we extract the Earth’s contents, control the natural flow of water on the Earth’s crust, and cause dangerous explosions, we are disturbing the...