UK Power supplies Winter 2022/2023. Are you prepared ?

[honeybee13]

So sovrintee can be suspended if we want something?

[tobyjugg2]

Just a little point on my changing opinion on certain aspects

 

I WAS a big believer in Nuclear energy, repeatedly stated here, but seeing updated stats (sanity checked as much as possible given Guv selected 'independent(NOT)' assessments)

I'm not any more. Nuclear is off my list until a better version with lower costs is available.

 

Wind solar and hydro with green hydrogen 'gas' stations seems to be clearly the optimal way forward.

 

Lots of reasons and sources, but the following (with all it faults and omissions) summarises a number of the core issues and with them a number of my reasons. Its breaking down what was long withheld Gov reports. I wasnt sure before, but I'm pretty well sure now. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the energy fallout has pretty much cwashed away any of my 'maybes'

 

 

Wind and solar are 30-50% cheaper than thought, admits UK government

WWW.CARBONBRIEF.ORG

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The most striking result of the new 2020 report is that BEIS has once again slashed its estimates for the levelised cost of wind and solar power. This...

 

[tobyjugg2]

"A senior Russian oil executive has died after falling from the window of a Moscow hospital, months after his company criticised the Russian invasion of Ukraine."

 

"The incident occurred on the same day Vladimir Putin visited the hospital in order to pay his respects to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union."

 

"Half a dozen businesspeople with ties to the Russian energy industry have died in apparent suicides or in mysterious circumstances since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine."

 

Russian oil executive dies in fall from Moscow hospital window | Russia | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Ravil Maganov was chair of Russia’s biggest private oil company, Lukoil, which has criticised Ukraine invasion

 

[honeybee13]

Poor man.

[tobyjugg2]

A quite simple and clear observation from Opendemocracy

 

"Restrictions on Russian oil don’t make it more expensive for Shell, BP or the Saudis to pump theirs. It just means they can demand higher prices."

 

"Shell’s share price is up 35% since 1 January, BP’s, 30%. In May, Saudi Aramco replaced Apple as the biggest company in the world."

[unclebulgaria67]

I am hearing quite a lot of discontent being built up with people fearing the coming months. Some are struggling financially now and think it will get worse for their families. And with Government out of action while they wait for a new PM, they don't have any confidence there will be help coming that would reduce the financial impact that will be suffered.

 

For business owners it must be incredibly difficult to plan at the moment, as they don't know what support the Government will be offering. Do they reduce number of hours the business is open for to save on energy usage ?  Perhaps a 4 day working week for offices to save on energy costs ?  Would Supermarkets cut back on hours of opening to save money ?  What would this mean for part-time staff relying on the hours they could work in the evenings ?

 

Don't believe Government have considered all aspects to the energy/cost of living crisis

[tobyjugg2]

Of course they have - they have made it quite clear that they consider BP profits 'a British success story

and 'no more windfall taxes as its 'unconservative'

 

I'm just waiting for the temporary bribe with our own money just before a general election, in their hope that enough plebs will be utterly stupid enough to vote for them based on it.

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

decisions decisions, is it greener to keep a 20 year old Audi A2  TDI running remembering I live in a rural location, or go for broke with a basic EV where the grid is dodgy in winter?

 

Think I'll give the EV a miss for now we have abysmal charging infrastructure, and an insecure grid with regular blackouts already when the wind blows hard.

[tobyjugg2]

I'm in a similar position although mine is a euro5 1.6 diesel since retirement (cat and DPF)

45+ mpg on very short runs, 75mpg + on longer runs

 

Walks through its emissions test every MOT.

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

This winter might be the breaking of the EV paradigm, friends who are using EV vans on delivery for DPD have Range Anxiety , as have a 30 mile each way trip to depot to pick up parcels, do their round then 30 mile each way to depot and home, they are screwed if they can't get a top up on round, and no charger's at depot either.  How things will pan out on a cold winter with a potential 50% drop in range due to low temperature is anyone's guess.

[tobyjugg2]

13 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

This winter might be the breaking of the EV paradigm, friends who are using EV vans on delivery have Range Anxiety , as have a 30 mile each way trip to depot to pick up parcels, do their round then 30 mile each way to depot and home, they are screwed if they can't get a top up on round, and no charger's at depot either.

 

Which is a failure of infrastructure rollout to support the electric/hydrogen cell vehicles

Which rollout is now essential - as those transport businesses simply wont be able to compete with ever increasing fossil fuel cost

 

.. or do we wait until the saudis demand conversion to Islam to ensure future supplies?

- they are ALL (Russia, sauds, BP, Shell) already demanding tribute

- now aren't they?

 

And does the current situation not clearly, beyond any doubt, show that there is no fossil fuel security in the UK - even with 'british' energy companies and british fossil fuels ..

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

At least I know I can squeeze 80 ish mpg on a run and 60plus round town, EV usually around 2 - 3.5 miles per Kwh

[tobyjugg2]

Not if theres no diesel as its rationed and price trebles and quadruples

(next 10 years)

 

and theres no range anxiety with hydrogen fuel cells if the hydrogen infrastructure (which is needed anyway) is put in place. You just top up with hydrogen just like you do diesel

 

You cant fill up your tank with nuclear. let alone in 30 seconds  - even if you live next to sizewell - but you can hydrogen

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

You would be in same boat as me then at moment TJ, I see hydrogen as a valid alternative for future  it loses out to pure electric when it should be part of mainstream.

[tobyjugg2]

43 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

You would be in same boat as me then at moment TJ, I see hydrogen as a valid alternative for future  it loses out to pure electric when it should be part of mainstream.

 

Hydrogen fuel cells would perhaps be a better compromise for many, perhaps all who travel fairish distances on a regular basis,

perhaps even a better solution overall full stop, although my jury is still out but leaning that way

- unless battery tech takes a massive leap forward from currently being materially  poisonous beasties

 

 

How do hydrogen fuel cells work?

WWW.VIESSMANN.CO.UK

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Hydrogen fuel cells are an up and coming technology, but what is a fuel cell and how does the technology work? Viessmann have the answers. 

 

 

Hydrogen fuel cells, explained

WWW.AIRBUS.COM

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Hydrogen fuel cells are emerging as a high-potential technology that offers significant energy efficiency and decarbonisation benefits to a range of...

 

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

On the more conspiratorial side (but i do believe it) regarding battery and hydrogen tech,

I dont think we will see much progress until the beast that is fossil fuel is beheaded

- its simply NOT in their interests

Edited September 2, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Various options on this sort of proposal, including an low but none linear escalating price on more energy used in domestic environments

 

 

A crisis is coming for UK energy prices and this is what has to be done | Alfie Stirling | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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We need to target our response by replacing price caps with a new system of ‘free basic energy’

 

[honeybee13]

Here's an editorial from the Guardian on fracking and North Sea oil compared with putting in more green resources.

 

Surely more renewables has to be the long-term answer? Especially as oil licence to extraction takes so long.

 

The Guardian view on Truss’s energy price cap: right policy for the wrong reasons | Editorial | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Editorial: Instead of plans to bring on greener sources of power generation, the prime minister wants to drill for oil and frack...

 

[tobyjugg2]

Ah but wheres the taxpayer funded and supported development of high profits on drilled/fracked oil, sold on the open market for the highest prices, with the profits going into tax havens which could be in Britain (but dont worry, you wont be allowed to know) in ten years time with that green renewable stuff?

[unclebulgaria67]

Issue with fracking in the UK is that companies looking to do this would be taking a huge risk in spending money on exploration and then not knowing how much supply they will find.  And if there are many incidents of earth tremors and environmental damage, then the costs of compensation may exceed revenues. UK is totally different to US due to size of country and proximity between drilling sites and residential areas.

 

Is fracking really a viable option in the UK ?

[honeybee13]

I suspect it's less efficient than the green alternatives and it's short term once any gas that's down there runs out. After all, they're only resorting to cracking rocks because the easily available gas is at an end.

 

What isn't mentioned by the fans of fracking is that it involves huge amounts of water that we don't necessarily have [I don't know if the water is fit for use afterwards] and harmful chemicals are used in the process.

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Issue with fracking in the UK is that companies looking to do this would be taking a huge risk in spending money on exploration and then not knowing how much supply they will find.  And if there are many incidents of earth tremors and environmental damage, then the costs of compensation may exceed revenues.

 

Really?

So @unclebulgaria67 tell us roughly how much did the frackers pay for the damage caused by the earthquakes which stopped fracking not so long ago?

 

and how much has been spent at taxpayer expense in the USA cleaning up abandoned fracking wells that no longer, or NEVER did  pay profits?

 

3 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

 

UK is totally different to US due to size of country and proximity between drilling sites and residential areas.

 

Is fracking really a viable option in the UK ?

 

No, it isn't.

There is absolutely ZERO actually honestly defined benefits. Zero, nil, nada. Sweet F*** all

- except to a few investors benefiting from government subsidies via large salaries.

- Just look at the financial state of fracking businesses across the world - they make UK water companies look like environmentally green scions of efficiency.

 

https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pandemic-Accelerates-Dismal-Financial-Performance-of-US-Fracking-Companies_September-2020.pdf

 

All the claimed benefits are purely 'blown up' speculation on the high end possible total content, NOT on the amounts that realistically could be extracted,  which are commonly far less than a tenth projected amount at BEST, and at 2-3 times (minimum) the 'projected' costs

- even without any cleanup costs and just abandoning the wells - as evidenced by ALL prior fracking activities across the world.

 

 

Given the earthquakes from single wells, let alone any environmental and climate damage, does the UK taxpayer really want to fund 10's of thousands of fracking wells with associated earthquakes and poisoning?

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and take a look what happens to smaller frackers - just a few multiples of the total size of even the boosted potential claimed total UK fracking

 

The fracking boom is over. Where did all the jobs go?

WWW.TECHNOLOGYREVIEW.COM

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Fracking created startlingly few jobs in Appalachia, and most of them no longer exist.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Personally, I favour other forms of energy prodiuction.   Fracking would take took long and is too much of a risk for a small Island nation.

 

Surely tidal energy must be the way forward as an island in the north Atlantic and also more wind turbines.