Article 50 Discussion

[London1971]

1 hour ago, brassnecked said:

Just consider that if the cretinous Johnson goes, we might get Gove or The Beadle. Beadle = Rees-Mogg wannabe Beadle of Workhouse UK

Rees Mogg is finished, he’s had his time in the sun. As for Gove, lol Coke head gove is going to stick. He’s done. Next PM we have never heard of yet in the same vain as Sunak, spring from nowhere. Come to think of it Sunak , we could do a lot worse than that.

 

We are all in denial at the moment, as to how bad the economy is going to be ravaged. Austerity is really not going to help Tories keep their Northern seats. The population is going to need massive government support for a long time.

 

Everything has changed, we just can’t see how yet. After the pandemic is over it’s all going to be about the economy. Any government that doesn’t invest will get booted out at the next election. And no it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Brexit transition

period is extended for at least a year.

[brassnecked]

Need to be a better soothsayer than the one warning  Julius Caesar about Ides of March with this lot going on.

[honeybee13]

The Independent are saying that Boris is dropping the promise of not allowing US chlorinated chicken, hormone-fed beef and so on.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chlorinated-chicken-us-trade-talks-boris-johnson-trump-a9549656.html#gsc.tab=0

[unclebulgaria67]

The Tories strategy has recently been to go for votes in the north of England, as they presume that the south of England outside of major cities is safe Tory territory. Many Labour voters apparently voted Tory in December  to get Brexit done and the Tories will be looking for any possible benefit from Brexit.

 

Offering cheaper imported food, which they may believe will be popular in lower income households, could be seen as a vote winner. The Tories may be presuming that the farming community even though they may be affected by cheaper alternative food, are never going to vote Labour. There may be a belief in Tory minds that they could gain more votes, than they lose.

 

If Brexit does not meet the aspirations of the millions who voted for it, the main party that advocated it, are going to be in trouble at the next election. A combination of a Covid-19 derived recession and Brexit related problems is not going to help the Tories campaigning to stay in Government.

[honeybee13]

Do you think the Tories will be able to blame all the economic problems on Covid or the nasty Europeans, UB?

[unclebulgaria67]

No way !

 

Will either the EU or UK compromise to get a deal done before the end of 2020 ?

 

I think this is going to be very difficult. Have a feeling that many senior Tories believe that a deal with the EU is impossible in the next few years and they will  have to gamble on a WTO exit.  

 

So I can see a very bumpy ride ahead with a very unpopular Government in a state of crisis, hoping that by the time of the next election, the economy will have recovered.

 

 

[honeybee13]

I think a lot of senior Tories don't understand what trading on WTO terms means. Haven't we said before that there isn't a country in the world that trades solely on WTO?

 

They still haven't grasped that you can't have total sovereignty as well as full access to EU markets, there are trade-offs. I think financial services could be a clincher, despite all the posturing and tough talking, it affects far more jobs than fishing.

 

There is a glimmer of hope in that Boris has already capitulated over the Irish border, to get something signed at the end of last year.

[brassnecked]

Simplistically many of the Brexit Fanatical Tory Rump, Rees-Mogg Davis, Redwood etc, advised by Shankar (Snake Oil) Singham, whose research is pants, are like 18th Century Fwee Twaders, and can't see the impact of International Regulation Frameworks, so the lower US food standards will suit their purpose better.  But they I'm an extreme cynic where Politicians of any Party are concerned.

[tobyjugg2]

On 05/06/2020 at 08:18, unclebulgaria67 said:

No way !

 

Will either the EU or UK compromise to get a deal done before the end of 2020 ?

 

 

 

 

Wrong way around   :-/

 

 

With the UK reneging on what they have already agreed, and refusing to be bound by any external 'agreements'  by requiring that they are only bound by UK law that they modify and interpret at will is all that will bind them ...

 

They won't even make their spads play by the rules and Johnson has always believed that laws don't apply to him let alone basic honesty.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

and even without trumps trashing of the wto setup

 

What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean-Long-Guide.pdf

 

 

[honeybee13]

I find this article by George Monbiot very disturbing.

 

The UK could end up with a trade deal with the US that makes us import food that is below our current standards and could involve allowing access to the whole of the NHS.

 

Trade deals won't need to be agreed to by Parliament or the devolved governments, they can be forced through with Henry VIII powers.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/boris-johnson-trade-deal-us-chlorinated-chicken

[tobyjugg2]

Yes HB, it has always been two of the main US negotiation objectives, and they aren't going to give up on any of their objectives

 

See attached

01.11.2019_Summary_of_U.S.-EU_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

[honeybee13]

Thank you for the document, TJ.

 

[tobyjugg2]

and the clone

 

Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives-2.pdf

[tobyjugg2]

Transcript of 01/29 Public Hearing on U.S.-UK Trade Agreement

 

Which mentions such problems as food and vehicle safety standard requirements which must come into line with US 'standards

 

 

'out of date standards' is one of the ways they describe our safety standards

 

among many other things Johnson says aren't

Edited June 9, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

oh, nearly forgot as they 'aren't important' to the tories

 

The yanks want rid of UK agriculture and fisheries subsidies too ...

Its all in there.

[honeybee13]

Government is doing a U-turn on full customs checks in January, according to the FT.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/37fad070-160f-4d3b-b043-940b843a0daf?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6

[tobyjugg2]

LOL the UK was never in a position to do it

Remember the lorry park motorways farce

 

The EU will almost certainly treat the UK as any other external country - especially given the expected US imports which breach EU requirements

 

What Gove is 'announcing' is simply that the lorry parks may well still be needed on the UK side, as long as the UK farming and fishing industries dont collapse with the US requirements and imports

... but not on the EU side sending the quality food in.

 

 

its probably simply that Gove expects the UK time constrained industries like farming and fishing to quickly die out and quality UK food become a smaller market just for the rich

-  as planned

 

 

 

Lets not forget that under WTO terms, the UK will have to do that for everyone unless some deal with the EU  is agreed

Edited June 12, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

That's seriously depressing, TJ.

[tobyjugg2]

some might say its poetic justice that the ones who apparently supported the populist right and brexit most will be some of those to be most quickly blighted by it

 

but yes, I find it depressing too

 

 

but what can you expect if you place your trust and future in the hands of a serial self aggrandising liar

Edited June 12, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

You could say that, but I think a lot of ordinary people are going to lose out and it's sad.

[tobyjugg2]

Don't worry HB

 

The tories have already started talking about 'incentivising' British workers to take the place of the European migrant pickers in the healthy, fresh air outdoor life of luxury strawberry picking for Wimbledon for example,

and HS2 will shorten the time from good British peasants picking in the fields to the capital, if no further.

No need for those foreigners at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Oh good.

 

From what I've read, Brits did volunteer to pick crops and even if they could cope with tough physical work, the living conditions were too much for them. I read one article where about 30 people started and not many weeks later, five were left.

[brassnecked]

Try training some of these people in multidrop deliveries, many don't get beyond their first day.  that's if they can handle the Sprinter without wrecking it, forgetting the length and width.

[honeybee13]

That's OK, it's 'unskilled labour', we don't need to import it apparently.