Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

Well, looks like the low tax, low workers rights UK Mugg Mob are sweating

 

Why sweating?

 

They called for a no confidence vote in may when they KNEW they didn't have, and probably wouldn't ever get the numbers, despite having 80 members in the ERG (ugh) group - so press the point and hope to make others jump.

(Rumors say they are struggling to get high 20's.)

 

.. and ERG's Steve Baker trying to claim those who don't abandon May will not be leader - a bit rich from someone who cant even get 48 of 80 arch brexiters to submit letters of no confidence.

 

 

It might work and get enough letters sent but May is pretty much certain to win any no confidence vote.

[tobyjugg2]

he he he he he he

 

“As preening Tory saboteurs undermine the PM, their party, Brexit – and Britain’s future – the Mail asks simply …. Have they lost the plot?”

 

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2018/11/16/17/mail-headline-nov-16-2018-copy.jpg

 

[determindator]

If your passport expires six months before you travel to Europe do you need to renew? What has been agreed?

[honeybee13]

This is what the passport office say, determindator.

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/passport-rules-for-travel-to-europe-after-brexit

 

I'm not clear if there will be a rule for the EU27 or if it will be country by country. I did read that France said they won't demand visas for Brits if the UK doesn't have them for French people.

[tobyjugg2]

If your passport expires six months before you travel to Europe do you need to renew?

 

What has been agreed?

 

Nothing has been agreed.

 

HB's link is the best option

 

- be careful to avoid any premium telephone number links NOT from gov.uk which find their way high up google searches - bet they are raking it in at the moment despite knowing nowt.

 

 

Consider that if the ERG get their no rules Britain way (why the ERG dont want a Canada, Norway or any deal which will prevent them completely trashing workers and environmental rights) - look at what rules Somalia China or Russia need.

 

Thank God those self serving ******** are in a minority and the Tory party as a whole seem to be rejecting their ambitions.

[tobyjugg2]

and with labour firmly setting up their goods on the 'Just vote for us (in a general election) and we can have our cake and eat it' stall vacated by Johnson, Gove et al

 

Do they really think (are?) the British people that stupid to fall for it twice!!!

 

 

For Gods sake put something out on your empty stall Labour - we have already had a surfeit of empty lies from the 'major' parties

[tobyjugg2]

As May says

We will leave the EU next year, but May not Brexit at all

 

and

Corbyn says Labour can't stop Brexit and there cant be a peoples vote on the situation as it now stands (presumably because him and McCluski dont want it and wont allow it)

 

Yet a majority of Labour MP's (+ Labour conference + momentum), at least a large minority of Tory MPs, and pretty much all Scottish MPS (SNP + Tory) as well as apparently a significant majority (more than 52%) of the voting public think that the ONLY sane option is a peoples vote

 

Why and HOW are 40 or LESS of the 80ish ERG extreme right wing Tories + Corbyn and Mccluski driving this against the tide of so much opinion and desire?

 

 

Long past time real modern socialists/labour resigned from Unite and Joined a different union and left Unite to the trots.

[tobyjugg2]

Cant believe the Garbage that May is spinning about the 'deal' with mention of free trade stuff that has NOT been agreed in any way and is incompatible with other statements presented with them (fantasies)

 

 

The reality:

We will pay the £39B we owe - as we should and could have agreed 2+ years ago

 

+ some 'aspirations' with nothing to support them and much to contradict them

 

thats it.

Two and a half years to agree we will pay what we owe

and diddly squat else except pie in the sky to add to the continued cake and eat it mentality.

 

... Complete empty BS is the only way it can be described.

 

and she asks the people to support ... nothing but fantasies without an iota of real meaning .. as she AND Corbyn have throughout

[honeybee13]

From what I read this morning, she doesn't seem to have a lot of support so far. I thought Nicola Sturgeon's comments were very cogent.

[tobyjugg2]

From what I read this morning, she doesn't seem to have a lot of support so far. I thought Nicola Sturgeon's comments were very cogent.

 

Quite true - its a pack of complete codswallop that even goes back to the extra money for the NHS lie

Unbelievable !!!!

 

Are people really that gullible? or is May simply completely out of touch?

I hope its the latter.

 

At least it seems to have got people together with pretty much EVERYONE saying its Poo

[determindator]

I think the deal will be accepted in the knowledge the transition period and future years can or will be used to take forward what is really required by the UK. From what I see, it's a gradual break away which it was always going to be. We were never going to please everyone with the final agreement. To me it shows the disagreements we've had with the EU for a long time.

 

Business wants stability as much as can be possible and they will have much input over time to put themselves in a comfortable trading position.

 

It may be there's infighting within the Conservative party but my guess is they will compromise to stay in power.

[tobyjugg2]

It may be there's infighting within the Conservative party but my guess is they will compromise to stay in power.

 

Lets look at whats really happened before this last minute 'you must take it because theres no more time' 'deal'

The UK has deliberately misrepresented and willfully or incompetently inactioned these crucial issues until the last minute

 

* May has consistantly refused to give any meaningful reports on the lack of progress on the Brexit negotiations

 

* David Davies spent 2 years doing absolutely NOTHING. Didn't even go to meetings.

The UK said these are our red lines - which made any deal, even WTO let alone Norway impossible

 

* Then Rabb went and said no no those agreements including the border agreement which had been solidly agreed hadn't been agreed.

 

...... Which brought us to a week ago.

 

Now we have the 'deal' which agrees:

* We will pay what we actually already owe (although some are still saying no we wont)

* We need to sort out the Irish border issues

 

We can have a transition period and START negotiating any future deal and the border/trade issues if parliament passes this 'motion' (apt description)

 

THESE could and should have been agreed 2+ years ago. This 'deal' is what was effectively the situation 2.5 years ago.

 

 

So the UK government has squandered 2.5 YEARS leaving even these trivial and really pre-defined issues to the very last moment, intentionally to try to leave no-one with any options.

Its simply inconceivable to believe this is through simple incompetence.

It seems quite clear May and her cabinet always intended to do this.

 

 

So all that has been agreed is the UK will leave with a transition period to avoid a cliff edge where everything except what the EU allows would STOP

 

Given existing form - the cliff edge has simple been temporarily postponed - or the backstop means that the UK will permanently stay in a limbo half way house.

 

NOTHING HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN TWO AND A HALF YEARS - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING

 

and before the Corbynites shout up - ALL HE'S DONE IS BE A KEY AND CRUCIAL PART OF THE CURRENT UTTER FAILURE

May couldn't have got us here to this situation without Corbyn

 

and NO I dont think the conscientious MP's will allow this carefully planed attempt to thwart democracy to succeed any more than they did the attempts to invoke the Henry VIII dictatorship powers - despite Corbyn.

 

and yes, the Tories want to stick with May because just imagine how much worse this WOULD be under Davies, Rabb or Smug or Corbyn.

[honeybee13]

I notice that May has recently started to acknowledge that another referendum could be the third option, in the event the deal is voted down. This looks quite likely at the moment.

 

A new vote seems democratic to me, although avid Leavers aren't likely to accept the result if it goes against them. Last time the country voted on joining Europe, the terms had already been negotiated; I've never agreed with a blind Brexit, which is what this is.

 

TJ, I have also wondered why they let things drift for so long, you could be right about wanting to back everyone into a corner.

[tobyjugg2]

A new vote seems democratic to me, although avid Leavers aren't likely to accept the result if it goes against them.

 

"Julian Smith, the government chief whip – who looks like a dentist who positively enjoys giving his patients insufficient Novocaine – is now May’s most important cabinet colleague by far.

 

In the next fortnight he and his team must use every conceivable inducement and threat to reach the magic total of 320 votes: knighthoods, peerages, gongs and legislative time will be offered to waverers.

 

Those MPs who oppose the deal will be asked whether their families would really enjoy reading about their sexual indiscretions in the newspapers. Most of this nasty work will be carried out by intermediaries (even whips need plausible deniability). But any and every tactic available to the government will be used; this is life and death, and no time for political squeamishness."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/25/theresa-may-brexit-deal-meltdown

 

"Deplorably, senior government figures are actively hoping that the markets will respond with panic to the parliamentary failure of the deal, and, to adapt Dr Johnson, focus the minds of MPs sufficiently to deliver a majority second time round."

 

"Expect the campaign for a fresh referendum to gather in strength after the parliamentary vote. (also) Those who have always felt that a no-deal Brexit was the cleanest and most honest option – the oxymoronic “managed” no-deal of Dominic Raab’s fantasies – will shift up a gear."

[determindator]

I can only presume the 2.5 years haggling away was because the EU were in denial and could be seen as a deliberate attempt to thwart Brexit, we're bigger than you bully tactics I suppose. There certainly wasn't going to be an agreement on fishing rights and that's just one issue. Maybe they hoped the longer the uncertainty went on there was more chance of getting the UK to have a second referendum presuming the people would change their mind.

 

Then there's the theory you say it was our attempt to stretch it out, or both colluding!

[tobyjugg2]

I can only presume the 2.5 years haggling away was because the EU were in denial and could be seen as a deliberate attempt to thwart Brexit, we're bigger than you bully tactics I suppose. There certainly wasn't going to be an agreement on fishing rights and that's just one issue. Maybe they hoped the longer the uncertainty went on there was more chance of getting the UK to have a second referendum presuming the people would change their mind.

 

Then there's the theory you say it was our attempt to stretch it out, or both colluding!

 

Just The EU's documented and consistent stance

vs

May's UK citizen mushroom management and claiming different things to different people (as is still ridiculously happening) and 2 years of Davies doing NOTHING

 

... seems to clearly support my observations that for May it was the unrealistic cake and eat it or the UK to the cliff edge with as few options as possible. There is no equivalent cliff edge for the EU.

 

Why else would anyone (mis) manage negotiations in the way they have been?

 

 

 

The only other answer is rank incompetence

'we didn't know, how could we know, we did our best, they out Fox'd and out Davis'd us'

 

... which I'm sure they would use were they taken to court for treason.

(.. hoping for the charges to be reduced to criminal negligence)

[tobyjugg2]

and for those who still deludedly think US deals will save our industry after Brexit,

heres and example of what might replace a small PART of our current access through the EU:

 

"Going forward, the agreement will require airlines that change hands (or new) to meet the (USA) ownership requirements or get U.S. approval.

 

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday the deal would be inferior to the UK’s rights under the existing EU agreement, including “tighter restrictions on ownership, tougher terms for new entrants and no special access”

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-usa-airlines/u-s-near-aviation-agreement-with-post-brexit-uk-sources-idUKKCN1NW24J

 

 

 

 

May continues piling on the (mushroom management)

 

Fresh row looms as No 10 refuses to publish full Brexit legal advice

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/fresh-row-looms-as-no-10-refuses-to-publish-full-brexit-legal-advice

 

 

 

"Refusal – despite unanimous resolution by Commons – is unacceptable"

 

"Downing Street has refused to commit to publishing the full legal advice given on the Brexit deal despite a unanimous resolution by the House of Commons, in a move likely to spark a major new process row"

 

"demand to see the legal advice was backed by Tory Brexiteers, and ministers conceded defeat by ordering Conservative MPs to abstain in a Commons vote, after it became clear they would lose any attempt to stop the disclosure when the DUP said it would support the move."

 

 

 

 

As both Tories and Corbyn try to continue to prevent 3 MILLION ex-pats (remain votes?) from voting

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-expats-rights-being-denied-the-right-to-vote-in-the-general-election-a7710466.html

 

"three million British citizens across Europe could not vote in the EU referendum because of a ban on voting for Brits who have lived overseas"

 

 

PLUS even those that 'were' allowed to vote:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-voters-abroad-denied-postal-votes-a7098271.html

 

"British expats have voiced their outrage after being denied a say in the EU referendum because their postal votes failed to arrive.

Voters living abroad in three continents told The Independent they were forced to miss the historic poll because of “totally unacceptable” administrative errors and delays."

 

 

 

What price Global Britain that denies even its own citizens abroad?

 

add three million to the remain vote ....

[tobyjugg2]

May continues piling on the (mushroom management)

 

Fresh row looms as No 10 refuses to publish full Brexit legal advice

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/fresh-row-looms-as-no-10-refuses-to-publish-full-brexit-legal-advice

 

 

"Refusal – despite unanimous resolution by Commons – is unacceptable"

 

"Downing Street has refused to commit to publishing the full legal advice given on the Brexit deal despite a unanimous resolution by the House of Commons, in a move likely to spark a major new process row"

 

"demand to see the legal advice was backed by Tory Brexiteers, and ministers conceded defeat by ordering Conservative MPs to abstain in a Commons vote, after it became clear they would lose any attempt to stop the disclosure when the DUP said it would support the move."

 

 

Confirmed by Hammond.

 

and here wee come to the core issues with the UK Government - all parties

 

Hammond: "There’s a very important principle here, that the government must be able to commission impartial legal advice which absolutely tells it like it is to enable it to shape its decisions, while always complying with its legal obligation in the negotiations."

"So the client has the ability to ask the difficult questions, to receive full and frank legal advice, and then to make a decision based on that full and frank advice."

 

YES - ABSOLUTELY - and in a government doing such, they are acting on behalf of the Nation - Parliament and people - and should have no issue with being held to account.

 

 

Hammond: "It would be impossible for government to function if we create a precedent that the legal advice that the government receives has to be made public."

 

NO - Why? - because they would find it harder to deceive the public if it was made public?

 

 

Hammond: "We must have, as every other citizen has, the right to take privileged legal advice which remains private between the lawyer and the client."

 

ABSOLUTELY NOT - this is not for a private citizen - this is for a government who are acting on behalf of the population who voted them into power, on issues which affect every British National, with both the Ministers and the Legal advice paid for by the population.

The population as well as all parliament have an absolute RIGHT to it.

 

Another:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/department-transport-criticise-meg-hillier-secretive-no-deal-brexit-preparations

 

 

 

Labour is no Better.

Corbyn wants to do whatever he wants with no oversight or explanation - probably worse than May.

 

Example

While Corbyn offers NOTHING in the way of plans or explanations, and refuses democracy to the people..

... McDonnell says the opposite of Corbyn

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/labour-seize-second-brexit-vote-option-john-mcdonnell

 

"John McDonnell has said a second Brexit referendum “might be an option we seize upon”, admitting for the first time that remain should be on the ballot paper and insisting that “no deal” should not."

 

Now I am a remainer, but leaving one of the three valid possible options off a referendum (just like Mays MY deal or No deal Brexit or Corbyns no Brexitexit) is * The definition of anti-democratic

 

So what do we see:

 

* May saying : My deal or No deal Brexit

 

* McDonnell saying : NOT Mays deal, Labours fantasy undefined deal or maybe something else

 

* Corbyn saying : We cant do owt about Brexit except what I want and I'm not telling you what that is

 

ALL these Fascist dictator choices - which is what pretty much all the UK's government wannabees seem to have become

 

 

 

This TRUE referendum should have all three options, clearly and honestly with no Unicorn wishful fantasies, with the third place votes given to those voters second choices so no splitting the voters wishes

and open to ALL British Citizens including British Ex Pats

.. The ONLY option to give any chance of any sort of real result.

 

It may remain divided (or close either way which is the same)

In which case, the ONLY meaningful way to address that is to ask the real questions of the people, and address those UK issues - because they are UK issues - not others.

 

... THEN if needed address any external issues as a United Kingdom - which probably were never real anyway.

 

The one thing I am sure of is that we are all mostly sick of self serving politicians insisting their twisted self serving interpretations are what we meant.

 

 

 

and it is three choices as the eu have made clear there is no better option without changing the red lines, and have no will to go through more years of non-negotiation shenanigans

[honeybee13]

I agree with you, TJ. I don't see why Parliament shouldn't see the full legal advice before they vote, presumably on our behalf. I don't see why it shouldn't be made public either, as it's our future.

 

As someone in the Guardian said earlier, Boris's option hasn't been negotiated [and nor has anything that Corbyn might dream up]. I would say the fair questions might be Treeza's deal, staying where we are or no deal.

[tobyjugg2]

I don't see why Parliament shouldn't see the full legal advice before they vote, presumably on our behalf. I don't see why it shouldn't be made public either, as it's our future.

 

Same with Mp's making secret votes - NO NO NO

Happy for them to have the same rights as private citizens when they are acting as private citizens

... but when they are acting as Rulers - ooops servants of the state - then everything they do and spend MUST be open to public scrutiny.

They aren't rulers - they are servants - and its long past time that was enforced.

 

 

As someone in the Guardian said earlier, Boris's option hasn't been negotiated [and nor has anything that Corbyn might dream up]. I would say the fair questions might be Treeza's deal, staying where we are or no deal.

 

Boris' ramblings will never be on the table.

 

The three that are:

* Remain (now only a 'probably' from the EU side - and Spains Gibraltar tactics have proven how fraught that is)

* Hard Brexit No deal

* Mays Brexit with no deal defined but hope for something better than she's managed in the last 2.5 years

 

These are the only three that are even near the table, let alone on it

 

and for those that missed it, two of those still do NOT address the Irish border issue (for starters),

and actually both of those two as they stand are still actually Hard Brexit with no deal (one just postpones it) ....

 

.. and neither case is the remain option.

[honeybee13]

So the government's own figures, plus the Bank of England, Treasury and NIESR all say the UK will be worse off by varying degrees depending on which type of Brexit you look at.

 

The best deal economically seems to be staying in the EU.

[tobyjugg2]

So the government's own figures, plus the Bank of England, Treasury and NIESR all say the UK will be worse off by varying degrees depending on which type of Brexit you look at.

 

The best deal economically seems to be staying in the EU.

 

Yes with hard Brexit - the only one we have unless the negotiators do a better job in the next two years than they have in the last two and a half years

- being more severe than the financial crisis - which was used to justify 'austerity'

 

Auserity - where everyone needed to tighten their belts

- well except politicians and those on boards of directors of course, who took the opportunity to claim it justified large pay and bonus awards for them. - however well or NOT their charges/companies were doing

 

 

 

and some REAL facts on 'migration showing non EU migration has always been higher than EU migration, and the Brexit crews claims of LEAVE RIGHT NOW TODAY or there will be a rush to come here is actually a rush to leave here despite the UK still not using the work or leave option.

Too busy throwing out windrush brits who have worked here all their life I suppose

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/29/eu-net-migration-uk-falls-lowest-level-almost-six-years

 

Net migration from non-EU countries rose to 248,000 in the year to June, while EU net migration fell further to 74,000

[Jase1982]

Out of interest I could swear that the EU said that once article 50 was invoked, we couldn't go back on it. Wouldn't surprise me that remain win following a people's vote (Only option I can see as May's deal won't get through parliament) and the EU allow us back on reduced terms. We must be the laughing stock of the world... no wonder we're trying to ally ourselves with Donald Trump.

[honeybee13]

They may have said that, Jase, I can't remember that far back. I think people like the man who wrote article 50 [a Brit from memory] said it could be revoked though and there have been a few articles about that.

 

I think you're probably right that if we ask to go back, the terms won't be as good. And we do seem to be a laughing stock for a national act of self-harm. How much has it all cost so far?

 

I'm not sure allying with Trump is a good idea, he changes like the wind and I don't trust him myself. The UK alone trying to negotiate trade deals is going to have a tough time against the mammoths out there, I don't think our guys have done very well against Europe, they've run rings around us IMO.

[tobyjugg2]

Out of interest I could swear that the EU said that once article 50 was invoked, we couldn't go back on it. Wouldn't surprise me that remain win following a people's vote (Only option I can see as May's deal won't get through parliament) and the EU allow us back on reduced terms. We must be the laughing stock of the world... no wonder we're trying to ally ourselves with Donald Trump.

 

You mean like:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/29/un-yemen-ceasefire-resolution-blocked-saudi-uae-blackmail

 

Where we are just hung out to dry by Trump and the Saudis?

History largely repeating itself.

 

The USA is NOT our friend.