Article 50 Discussion

[unclebulgaria67]

I think May is waiting to see what happens. She will proceed with Brexit and at some point if it does not go well, she might walk away from negotiations, saying that she will opt for a hard Brexit.

 

Don't also rule out the possibility that May might resign as PM, if she wins the election and she cannot command her party to agree on a way forward.

[fletch70]

If she wins with a significant majority, isn't it likely she will stay

 

I think she is an astute politician but that does not mean I think she is talented or good at what she does - just aruthless manipulative survivor

 

Maybe a new House of Cards UK

[tobyjugg2]

and Amber Rudd saying on the BBC 'its gossip' while blinking as if someone was throwing salt in her eyes ....

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226837273_Blinking_During_and_After_Lying

 

Can see why the torys keep her away from the limelight even more than they keep May away

 

They must be getting desperate to reel her out.

[unclebulgaria67]

I think the media stories about May and UK government being considered dillusional by EU are probably correct. The EU will play hardball and will not negotiate one issue at a time. The exit negotiation will be about one package covering all of the different issues that the EU decide on and no trade talks will happen until the UK has left the EU.

[tobyjugg2]

I think the media stories about May and UK government being considered dillusional by EU are probably correct. The EU will play hardball and will not negotiate one issue at a time. The exit negotiation will be about one package covering all of the different issues that the EU decide on and no trade talks will happen until the UK has left the EU.

 

 

I think the EU has been quite consistent and rational in their statements from the very start, in that we would become a n outside nation - not even on a par with Turkey,

and that we most definitely could not 'have our cake and eat it.

I dont believe they are or will play hardball except in response to our representatives stupidity.

In fact they could be making it FAR FAR harder for us - and that far harder approach would make business sense (and be completely in keeping with what WE would do if the positions were reversed.

I think we are getting it very very very easy.

 

 

Mays dribbles have also been relatively consistent:

That we can have everything we want from the EU and free trade on OUR terms, everything that make the EU members special in the EU for the taking, while paying nothing, giving nothing, and being responsible for nothing,

and alongside this, everyone else in the world will be fighting to honor themselves by giving us anything, desperately begging us to 'please take whatever you want from us, we want nothing but to serve you''

We will again be the rulers of the world.

 

Fookin deluded really does not do it justice.

 

 

 

What have we got to offer in trade to pay our way?

 

We make some cars here - owned by foreign interests

We import 80% of our food (which might end up with 30% duty)

Our nuclear and energy is owned by foreign business

We cant even repair the holes in our roads or treat our ill.

 

WE do have possibly the highest concentration of corrupt bankers in the world (even yank corrupt banks prefer it here) which hold the world to ransom as no one dare throttle their abuses

- well that is changing - driven by the EU

- despite our resistance and Trumps promises

- and with it goes perhaps 30% of our GDP (perhaps much more)

 

We do have a massive services industry - dependent on the protectionism of the EU.

India and Malasia offer services far cheaper than we do once we are competing with them as a non EU country - another 30%+ of our GDP under threat

 

 

Even were it were (and it isnt) true that the we would regain 'past glories', review the realities of history. Remember that wealth and power was in the hands of the few more even than today, despite then as now being built for those few on the backs of abuse, poverty and degradation imposed of the May (oops typo 'on the Many').

So May-be we are bringing back the 'glorious' 18th - 19th centuries. I just hope that everyone realises that its MOST likely they will be a poor beholden serf, NOT a Lord of the Manor.

[tobyjugg2]

Mays Brexit means Brexit (as I defined it) appears to be the only truth she has said

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/may-juncker-will-find-me-bloody-difficult-woman-in-brexit-talks?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=224244&subid=19389892&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

 

A cabinet source told the Guardian

"EU scepticism about achieving an early deal over citizens’ rights, for British people on the continent and Europeans in the UK, was driven by a desire not to let the UK have the “moral upper hand” over the issue. “We were willing to start talking about this in December,” they said."

 

Hooowls with laughter - Everyone knows its the UK who wanted to use citizens rights as a bargaining tool

"In his first press conference since EU leaders agreed a predictably tough opening stance in Brexit talks on Saturday, Barnier will stress his first priority is securing the rights of EU citizens and getting the UK to pay its Brexit bill."

 

 

"Former deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has accused May of treating European leaders as if they were Home Office civil servants she can “bark instructions at” during negotiations."

 

"The commission president was said to have called the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, afterwards to say he believed May’s approach to the negotiations was from a “different galaxy”."

 

 

 

 

 

Hard Brexit it is then, end of March 2019 at the latest, with May looking to point the blame for everything and anything at the EU.

 

"But the draft adds new details, most notably setting out the exact time of Britain’s EU departure: “at the latest 30 March 2019 at 00.00 (Brussels time)”. The UK will need the unanimous agreement of all 27 member states if it wants to extend talks, a tall order as many EU officials insist Britain must be out before the 2019 European elections."

[honeybee13]

Why does she think that the UK has the whip hand in this? We're leaving, why would they want to be nice to us?

 

HB

[tobyjugg2]

1. Why does she think that the UK has the whip hand in this?

 

2. We're leaving,

 

3. why would they want to be nice to us?

 

HB

 

 

Three points there HB.

 

No1.

A VERY good question as we clearly dont and bever have had the upper hand despite all the Brexit rhetoric. Right from the day we begged to join to get ourselves out of collapse.

 

No3.

Nice isnt the issue, although in relative terms they unquestionably are being nice. They are, and will be reasonable, its the EU way...

which few others would be in these circumstances - we wouldn't be were the positions reversed.

It is May and the UK that are being anus's. Isn't that clear?

 

No2.

What do you mean by leaving?

 

Do you mean Hard Brexit, no deals, WTO terms if we are lucky?

- and that will be provided WE abide by the WTO terms, and May certainly wont want that - look them up.

EVERYONE should familiarise themselves with WTO rules like having to treat everyone equally. Its still a club - with rules.

 

or Do you mean Soft Brexit with all that implies as not being what ANYONE voted for?

Still answerable to EU courts, still having EU free movement etc.

 

or Do you mean the Brexit LIE ala Johnson

We allow immigration because we have chosen to allow it

Our courts sovereignly agree with the EU courts,

We pay 350M a week (* and really £350M) because we chose too

The EU allows free trade because they are frightened of us - nothing to do with the above as we are sovereign.

Johnson is already touting that Sheet now.

 

Like with Syria - I see absolutely no good ending for the UK with Brexit

 

 

Unc has long said it wont happen and I thought that was wishful thinking, but there is no good result in Brexit for ANYONE except the immorally rich.

Some business owner multi-millionaires might think they will do well, but I doubt the benefits will get down even that low, so I am beginning to think (hope) that Unc may have been right all along.

 

Depends on two things now

French Elections

then our election

 

If we kick out May and dont kick in Corbyn (who is even more a hard Brexiter whatever lies he spins to try to get in power),

the EU has clearly said all cards are still on the table.

[Guest]

it seems difficult to see it not happening.

K J May seems hell bent on a hard 'bloody difficult' one

Labour have, apparently, conceded that it will happen. but seem to want a softer exit.

 

In france, le Pen wants a ref. if it gets in on monday, and does a ref which goes the same way as uk. then what for the eu?

 

the eu does need reform to an extent. i suppose the best scenario wld be the eu making a formal mandate re reform, and then the uk staying in to be a part of such rather than just having to nod to whatever happens?

[tobyjugg2]

it seems difficult to see it not happening.

K J May seems hell bent on a hard 'bloody difficult' one

Labour have, apparently, conceded that it will happen. but seem to want a softer exit.

 

In france, le Pen wants a ref. if it gets in on monday, and does a ref which goes the same way as uk. then what for the eu?

 

the eu does need reform to an extent. i suppose the best scenario wld be the eu making a formal mandate re reform, and then the uk staying in to be a part of such rather than just having to nod to whatever happens?

 

May, the Brexit masters and Putin (and probably Trump) will all be desperately wanting la Le Penn to win. It would most probably end the EU project.

Probably best Brexiter option there is - drag everyone down some of the way with us.

 

 

Still not a good result

why?

Because so much of the UK is owned by foreign companies. How do you keep those under reasonable control when there is no joint jurisdiction and they do MOST of their business elsewhere?

The banks will still move most of their business abroad and we will still lose our services industries preferred and protected EU status - Indonesian and Indian services are far cheaper in a WTO market.

Even in this scenario, its likely the majority EU countries would probably maintain their agreements unlike what our Brexiters want.

OK Le Penn loses:

Generally better for the World and clearly better for the EU bit what about the UK?

 

Good question,

Probably better, but not hugely (yes better outside 'hard Brexit and ready for War scenarios)

 

Brexit - we will still be outsiders but a rational EU would want reasonable relations rather than a free for all where all would suffer in a race to the bottom.

 

The EU27 would more probably leave us the option of withdrawing from our Brexit should we come to our senses and choose to do so.

This is by no means certain as there will be many EU leaders who dont want the UK trouble maker back, and see Brexit as an opportunity to expamd their own interests and reduce the UK's power and influence.

We should all have learned by now that its easier for politicians to give a noisy minority what they want to quiet them - the more tolerant many will tend to accept it if it doesn't clearly bite them.

So why would France (for example) do the UK any favours and stir up its own nationalists?

[tobyjugg2]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-brexit-idUKKBN17Z1RR

May:

"The events of the last few days have shown that, whatever our wishes, and however reasonable the positions of Europe's other leaders - there are some in Brussels who do not want these talks to succeed. Who do not want Britain to prosper."

 

Is this May admitting that the UK's prosperity depends on good deals with the EU?

 

Thats rather a kick in the teeth for Rule Britannia and 'we dont need em' isnt it?

And a damning condemnation of hard Brexit

 

 

But yes there are powerful people in the EU and the UK who dont want a successful brexit negotiation.

May and David Davis being 2 of them it would seem.

[tobyjugg2]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/david-davis-photo-jeremy-corbyn-debt-taxes_uk_5909eb14e4b05c397684fa92?utm_hp_ref=uk

David Davies describes Brexit under a Tory government

 

 

[obiter dictum]

As Tim Farron stated

 

May has shown how weak she really is. You simply cannot bark demands at 27 presidents and prime ministers like your own civil servants and expect them to do as you command.

[tobyjugg2]

The gaurdian catches up on what is probably Mays MAIN reason for calling an election

 

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/may/03/brexit-parliament-oversight-mps-peers-laws-legislation-lord-judge?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=The+Snap&utm_term=224416&subid=19389892&CMP=snap_election_briefing

 

"The “legislative tsunami” unleashed by Brexit will deliver the “greatest challenge” in history to the integrity of parliament’s procedures, a former lord chief justice has said"

 

"The crossbench peer drew attention to the increasing reliance on secondary legislation and “Henry VIII powers” – laws allowing ministers to change primary legislation (government bills) using secondary legislation (orders that go through parliament with little or no scrutiny)."

 

"Turning to Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, Judge said: “The legislative journey through Brexit may reinforce the pernicious habits of political lifetimes … My main concern is that by the time the Brexit process has finished its parliamentary journey, we shall have irremediably cemented lawmaking by unscrutinised legislation into our constitutional arrangements”.

 

 

 

In plain words the PM becomes the Law - just like Erdogan has done, effectively ending the seperation of government and legal system - they just issue an edict which becomes law - just like May already tried with triggering article 50 without parliamentary agreement.

 

 

 

“Now here we are, with a parliament based on universal suffrage, conceding to the executive the power to overrule primary legislation, and we do so habitually,” he said. “All this is constitutional … Yet what Henry VIII could not get from his normally subservient parliament, we now grant.”

[fletch70]

Just wondering what peoples take is on the election results today

 

I have to say i am shedding no tears over the annihilationof UKIP - particularly in the area where my doppleganger is standing ( I was told by my soon to be deceased BIL that before he had a beard I looked like the Nut)

 

I am wondering if people think this is a true reflection of how it will go in June, or are labour supporters punishing Labour now but will return to their 'home' in June or are we in for a massive Tory majority and a one party state (well at least for the next 5 years)

[Guest]

fletch, best posted up in the snap KJ May thread

[fletch70]

Ta- Not seen that one- been kinda busy

[Guest]

 

In france, le Pen wants a ref. if it gets in on monday, ....

 

well le Pun wont be in, quite well defeated by reports.

a young boy in to president france, and wants reform of the eu...

[obiter dictum]

As an unelectable rightwing nut job, has Le Pen been offered a permanent seat on BBC Question Time yet?

I think I'll go and crack open a bottle of Schadenfreude!

[fletch70]

Won't it be ironic if the EU reforms in a way that would have been good for us.

 

No actually it will be the bloody disaster that Brexit was and is. On the outside looking in and missing all the opportunities.

 

Many people say the reason for our relative e onomic decline in the post war era was precisely because we did not join at the start, then when we asked to, good old DeGaulle said Non. We had to wait for him to croak before we got in

[Guest]

Won't it be ironic if the EU reforms ...

 

that seems to be what might be on the eu agenda. if what they are saying is to proceed.

unfortunately it seems our exit was the thing to prompt it, but as you say the uk wont have any direct influence re. and, if only the uk cld be a part of a good reform (maybe they still can?)

[citizenB]

Won't it be ironic if the EU reforms in a way that would have been good for us.

 

No actually it will be the bloody disaster that Brexit was and is. On the outside looking in and missing all the opportunities.

 

Many people say the reason for our relative e onomic decline in the post war era was precisely because we did not join at the start, then when we asked to, good old DeGaulle said Non. We had to wait for him to croak before we got in

 

 

To a certain degree I do agree with your first statement - however, France and Germany despite being the main players who set the rules, only abide by those that suit them.. The British, who play by the rules are the ones that were always being told you MUST do this and you MUST do that.. !!

 

 

There is too much corruption in Brussels and Europe overall - farm subsidies and other export payments for example.

[citizenB]

Also, if as has been touted - that the referendum was not binding.. why did Cameron not stay and deal with it? Why did he jump ship ? He could have used the Brexit vote to secure better deals perhaps ?

[tobyjugg2]

France and Germany despite being the main players who set the rules, only abide by those that suit them.. The British, who play by the rules are the ones that were always being told you MUST do this and you MUST do that.. !!

 

What complete twaddle!

 

The British government vetoed and manipulated all the way through.

 

Just look at Conman Camerons 'renegotiation' if you dont want to look into it properly.

Looked after his city pals quite successfully DESPITE the EU wanting to rein in the international money launderers and put protections in against further abuses.

 

Did NOTHING about the things important to the UK voters.

 

Point the finger of blame where it belongs - at OUR government.

[determindator]

I was hoping we stayed in to get on with the regulation of the banking system but looks like the bankers won, once again.

 

It is asked was it a cunning plan from the beginning.