Article 50 Discussion

[citizenB]

Is it really likely that Gove would become our next PM - heaven help us if so ?

[Old Cogger]

is he still alive ??? oh dear re Gove two faced twit who loves himself, well he has to as he is bally useless self centered bigot!

[citizenB]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/italys-political-and-economic-crisis-threatens-europes-stability-2016-7

 

Italy is on the cusp of tearing Europe apart but the economic and political crisis brewing in the nation is largely going unnoticed.

All eyes have turned to Britain's vote to leave the European Union as having the most drastic political and economic impact onto the 28-nation state but if you look at the country's economic data, bank issues, and the impending constitutional referendum coming up, Italy is like a bomb waiting to explode.

 

The Italian financial system, which to put it gently, is in a major state of flux right now. While Britain's EU referendum in June was seismic in terms of having economic and political repercussions across the bloc, there is another referendum of equal importance, coming up in Italy in October, and the result could fundamentally alter the state of the already delicate Italian economy.

 

 

That has led to Italy going to Brussels for assistance, something that has so far been rejected, as it would be in contravention of EU rules.

"We have established specific rules as far as recapitalisation of the banks is concerned," German chancellor Angela Merkel said over the weekend.

"We can’t come up with new rules every two years. The Commission is ready to help, but so far it has not been convinced by what has been proposed by Italy."

Despite that rejection, Renzi — who is now known in some circles as the "Demolition Man" for his efforts to shake up the Italian political system — is reportedly ready to bypass the EU and act unilaterally to protect the financial system.

"We are willing to do whatever is necessary [to defend the banks], and do not rule out acting unilaterally, although that would only be as a last resort," a source "familiar with the government’s thinking" told the FT. Renzi himself has said he will not be "lectured by the schoolteacher."

 

And I thought they were the best of friends !

[citizenB]

And then there is Portugal

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-analysis-portuguese-economy-and-banking-sector-2016-5

 

Earlier this week, Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that Portugal's largest bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), an institution that holds nearly one-third of all deposits in the country, is on the brink of destruction following a horrendous first quarter of the year.

 

The bank is thought to need a cash injection of as much as €4 billion (£3.04 billion, $4.45 billion) to rescue it from serious difficulties. That number amounts to roughly 2.5% of Portugal's GDP.

 

Both Portugal and Spain dodged fines for breaking EU-mandated targets for deficit reduction after Jean-Claude Juncker intervened to delay any fines, at least until after the elections in Spain in June are over.

 

However, after that, Portugal could get slapped with a hefty fine for running a 4.4% budget deficit in 2015. The EU target set for the country was just 2.7%. Any fine would be another huge blow to the delicate state of Portugal's finances.

 

Clearly, Portugal isn't the only European nation in financial difficulty — Greece is barely scraping through continued talks with its creditors, Italy has huge problems in its banking sector and massive political issues, and France's striking workers highlight systemic problems with its labour market — but Portugal appears the closest to a new economic crisis.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

http://news.sky.com/story/1722612/pound-hits-new-low-as-property-funds-pull-out

 

Some countries in mainland EU might have issues which have been ongoing for years, but the UK has inflicted pain on itself with a leave vote upsetting markets.

[AndyOrch]

Off topic posts removed to here.....

 

http://www.consumeractiongroup.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?466749-Moderation-editing-Of-posts.

 

Please do not post anything further in this thread with regards to moderation/editing of posts.

 

Andyorch

[unclebulgaria67]

Brexit vote to cause a recession.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/uk-will-be-in-recession-by-first-quarter-of-next-year-says-northern-trust-20160707-gq0qul.html

 

Investment reducing and money going elsewhere as a consequence of Brexit vote. Pound still not recovering, with some predicting that is might hit parity with US Dollar at some point. Bank of England having to pump money into tne system again.

 

Hopefully these are just temporary issues and confidence in the UK economy will be restored, but if the economy now struggles for years with the national debt increasing, there will be tax increases and more cuts. As it was older people who voted for Brexit, it would seem fair to me that they take the biggest hit with a reduction in state pension and cut to the various perks they receive such as winter fuel allowance. I don't see why younger people should suffer more, when they mostly voted to remain in the EU.

 

One happy note is that Gove is out of the running, leaving Leadsom and May to fight it out to be PM.

[Guest]

Gove is out of the running, leaving Leadsom and May to fight it out to be PM

seems it will be May, given the numbers. unless there is a change of tact.

 

also, France now taken over the UEW as the fifth largest economy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britain-uk-world-s-fifth-largest-economy-brexit-eu-referendum-a7123761.html

[citizenB]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-netherlands-shows-its-not-just-brits-who-despise-the-eu/2016/07/07/8e0ef4e8-421f-11e6-a76d-3550dba926ac_story.html

 

The Netherlands shows it’s not just Brits who despise the E.U.

 

Euroskeptics in the Netherlands are seizing on the United Kingdom’s shock decision last month to leave the European Union, looking to inject new momentum into their own cause.

 

The outward-looking country was one of the founding members of the bloc, but even here, the E.U. elicits discontent, disillusionment and sometimes derision.

 

“People feel alienated from the European project. They think that too much sovereignty has been handed over to Brussels,” said Harry van Bommel, a member of the Dutch parliament who represents the left-wing Socialist Party, which is highly critical of the E.U.

 

 

 

Perhaps a few more countries feeling the same way - might just make Brussels sit up and take notice - then maybe Britain could stay but with a better deal for everyone.

[honeybee13]

There are people in France saying similar things about Europe, CB. Too much sovereignty with Brussels, the project has gone too far and people feel out of touch. The Front National were talking about a referendum before our vote and are keener now they know the result.

 

If enough countries say the same, maybe Brussels will have to change.

[citizenB]

There are people in France saying similar things about Europe, CB. Too much sovereignty with Brussels, the project has gone too far and people feel out of touch. The Front National were talking about a referendum before our vote and are keener now they know the result.

 

If enough countries say the same, maybe Brussels will have to change.

 

 

I suspect there are still some countries in the EU that will want us to honour the decision to leave - for some reason - they seem to blame the UK for causing unrest in their own countries

[buckthorn]

Just thought I would give you Guardian supporters,

lefties and whingers something more to whinge,

about and have a go at the leavers for.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/jun/27/brexit-family-rifts-parents-referendum-conflict-betrayal

 

This lot says it all most probably could not get out

of bed, or were up to their knees in mud at Glastonbury

while being legless on booze.

 

They think everybody owes them something, and older

people should not have a say in anything about the future,

of this country.

Scroll down Guardian video.

[unclebulgaria67]

There have been reports of race hate crimes since the Brexit vote, but some residents in Norwich have restored some faith in humanity.

 

 

Even before the Brexit vote, i heard some people say they want to see Polish and Romanians go home. In my local Lidl, an old lady asked the Polish cashier when she was going home. This Polish lady has been in the UK for over 10 years and herDaughter was born in England. They had become British citizens. I apologised to her for this old lady being so intolerant and she said that this was not the first time she had been asked about returning to Poland.

[silverfox1961]

I saw this on the BBC website earlier

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36702235

 

So who will pick our strawberries? With the best will in the world, we have many people in this country are unemployed. Pickers are bussed to the fields so I can't see why this should be an issue. I know there are people out there who think that picking fruit is below them and are quite happy to stay on benefits. I suggest it is them that should be targetted.

 

After Brexit, I suspect there will be restrictions on migration to work and as such farmers may struggle. As for the people of Norwich. Well done to them. Just shows that friendship can overcome racism

[honeybee13]

Interesting article, SF.

 

Another aspect raised is that the farmer was getting EU subsidies. Are they going to be replaced by the UK government?

 

HB

[unclebulgaria67]

Silverfox.

 

Brexit either won't happen or if it does right of free movement will continue as part of the trade deal. If you go on the Parliament TV site, there is archived House of Lords debates from Tuesday and Wednesday about these issues. Government are trying to present the impression of dealing with Brexit as simple, but senior ex ministers and cabinet secretaries are warning that there are huge hurdles to be crossed. It is likely that there will be another referendum on the UK/EU deal and not in/out again. If people reject the deal done, saying they preferred the previous EU membership, then Brexit would be cancelled.

[unclebulgaria67]

Interesting article, SF.

 

Another aspect raised is that the farmer was getting EU subsidies. Are they going to be replaced by the UK government?

 

HB

 

I think some on the leave side said that government would ensure farmers did not lose out. But if the UK were silly enough to allow the UK to be subject to WTO rules, as EU would not allow 2 years divorce settlement period to be extended, then UK farming exports to EU would be hit by a 23% tariff, making it very difficult. Of course the UK would retaliate, making produce in shops more expensive. The UK imports such a lot of produce through the EU. Irish farmers would be devastated.

[silverfox1961]

It beggars belief that even after the Referendum, no thought seems to have been given to the legal aftermath of a leave vote. The more I read about it, the less likely I feel that the referendum actually meant anything.

I saw both sides of the campaigns (then ignored them and sought as much 'truth' as I could) but I never found anything about a new bill being needed nor about any legal challenge. I suspect the 'divorce' either will not happen or will take far longer than thought to actually 'press the button'

[citizenB]

It beggars belief that even after the Referendum, no thought seems to have been given to the legal aftermath of a leave vote. The more I read about it, the less likely I feel that the referendum actually meant anything.

I saw both sides of the campaigns (then ignored them and sought as much 'truth' as I could) but I never found anything about a new bill being needed nor about any legal challenge. I suspect the 'divorce' either will not happen or will take far longer than thought to actually 'press the button'

 

 

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/boris-johnson-voters-were-not-told-basic-truths-about-brexit-11364071577672

 

Boris Johnson has said "it was wrong of the Government" to not explain to the electorate how Brexit would work.

 

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, in his first column since pulling out of the Tory leadership race, the blond Brexiteer said that "among a section of the population" there has been "a kind of hysteria, a contagious mourning" since the vote to leave.

 

He said the recent protests and crowds of young people is "not about the EU project per se", but about them and "their own fears and anxieties that are now being projected on to Brexit".

 

 

 

I think perhaps the Brexit campaigners should have perhaps had a hand in advising how things would work in the event of a leave vote. However, I am still of the opinion that no one, not even those campaigning to leave had any faith in the vote going that way.

 

"But the crowds of young people are experiencing the last psychological tremors of Project Fear - perhaps the most thoroughgoing government attempt to manipulate public opinion since the run-up to the Iraq War."

 

He said it was time for the nonsense claims that the older generation had stolen the future of youngsters, to end.

 

He added: "It was wrong of the Government to offer the public a binary choice on the EU without being willing - in the event that people voted Leave - to explain how this can be made to work in the interests of the UK and Europe.

 

 

 

"We cannot wait until mid-September and a new PM. We need a clear statement, now of some basic truths."

 

Mr Johnson, in setting out his truths, said there was "no risk" to EU nationals currently residing in the UK and said immigration will continue in a "controlled" way - "neutralising the extremists".

 

He also said it was "overwhelmingly in the economic interests" of other countries to work out a free-trade deal with the UK - with many economies from around the world already applying to do free-trade deals with Britain.

 

 

[honeybee13]

I think perhaps the Brexit campaigners should have perhaps had a hand in advising how things would work in the event of a leave vote.

 

I'm sure I read somewhere that the Leave campaign didn't have a plan and assumed that if they did win, they'd use no 10's plan.

[fishfingered]

We need to leave as soon as possible. The EU is going to blow up and we need to be out. There are 20 million possible EU migrants lined up to come here until we part ways with freedom of movement.

[obiter dictum]

Why can people not just keep to the topic of conversation instead of continuing with this rabid dog politics?? That is the Lisbon Treaty and Article 50.

 

People have had enough from both sides

[Consumer dude]

There is no legal obligation to activate article 50 so I can see the government just hanging it out and if people end up fighting each other, they (the government) will just point the finger and blame the side that suits them (the government). Divide and rule as usual..

[buckthorn]

I don’t think May should be made PM, they keep

having a go at Andrea Leadsom, about her CV etc.;

but there really is a conflict of interests where May

is concerned.

 

LINKS:-

 

[edited at buckthorn's request]

Edited July 9, 2016 by honeybee13
Post below says it's the wrong link

[buckthorn]

Wrong link given .

Correct link:- https://www.change.org/p/david-came...home-secretary-due-to-a-conflict-of-interests

Edited July 9, 2016 by buckthorn