Article 50 Discussion

[Guest]

I am not sure how popular Gove is around the country. A lot of parents and teachers don't like him. Therefore many Tories might think that he would be a liability at a future election. Also would he be any good in negotiating with the EU ?

 

It will be Theresa May v other and i think May would win it easily.

 

As i predicted the other day, i reckon by October we will have May as PM and Yvette Cooper as Labour leader.

was thinking that those that wanted Buff'n, wld now go to Gove (which they prob hoped for given B's and F's now lack of credibility, even though he was 'their' puppet during the campaign?).

but, yeah, that seems about right. at least the former anyway

[citizenB]

I wouldn't vote for Gove if someone paid me to do it. He is a nasty little man and I suspect his wife has a lot to do with his actions. Et tu Brute and all that !

[Guest]

I wouldn't vote for Gove if someone paid me to do it. !

me neither. he's just as responsible for the Leaves' con, and then some.

[Guest]

its even got into the footy;

commentator; 'southgate has ruled himself out of the england job....and boris has gone off on one of his bikes'

[tobyjugg2]

Well the cons should be really crapping themselves now

 

The pound is trading at 1.19e

and the trade deficit has been announced at £32.6Billion, a very significant increase in the already eye watering £27Billion that was expected.

Still spending ever more than we earn despite Tories saying what a great job they are doing, it was bad before Brexit, but the international community knew we werent alone then.

Now we are, and seem to be considered a bad debt.

 

Time to pawn some more UK assets - is there any left?

Wonder how much Spain will pay for Gibraltar. They want to stay in the EU anyway.

 

Carney drops interest rate further - market not impressed

 

 

'Fraid we are full steam ahead up sheet creek folks.

 

 

In simple terms

The credit cards are all maxed out, the bank accounts are empty, and the enforcement agents are at the door looking what they can stuff in the van (so no point looking for help here)

[determindator]

Good reads http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3667054/Still-sneering-Britain-boozy-bully-sums-s-rotten-EU.htmlhttps://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1364665/the-european-union-might-well-cease-to-exist-before-weve-even-had-a-chance-to-leave-it-that-would-be-ironic/

[determindator]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3667055/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Brexit-beacon-hope-Europe.html

[unclebulgaria67]

Good reads http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3667054/Still-sneering-Britain-boozy-bully-sums-s-rotten-EU.html

 

Good read and i have no particular views on EU politicians, as i think British politicians are just as bad. Most are two faced, saying one thing in public and doing something else in private.

 

Even if UK left the EU, in am not convinced UK government will stop movement of money via Luxembourg and other places to avoid tax. My guess is that if Brexit happens, that freedom of movement will continue as part of remaining part of the single market without tariffs. UK would have very similar arrangement to Norway and many who voted leave will not be happy asking what the point of voting was. Any EU rules that don't apply to the UK in the free market area, will mostly be to benefit government and business, with people losing some current rights.

 

I don't think Brexit will happen and within the next 12 months Farage will be going mad. Brexit will just prove too difficult and damaging.

[determindator]

I wasn't surprised Boris isn't running for Prime Minister. Michael Gove may or may not be elected leader but he has a consistent manner which feels genuine and believable.

[determindator]

http://www.consumeractiongroup.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?460072-The-European-Union.....In-or-Out&p=4913096#post4913096 post 1001

[unclebulgaria67]

I wasn't surprised Boris isn't running for Prime Minister. Michael Gove may or may not be elected leader but he has a consistent manner which feels genuine and believable.

 

Gove is hated by many Tories and this will only be made worse by what he did to Boris. Gove is a snake.

 

Gove is not consistent. Just go to Youtube where you will see Tom Watsons attack on Gove in parliament where he attacked Gove re school building programme. Gove caused a massive problem, by cancelling school building projects and now in some arears there is a shortage of places with kids having to be bused miles away. Gove transfered money to his free school movement, which was aimed at those parents who could not afford private but thought their kids too posh or intelligent to go a normal school.

[tobyjugg2]

I wasn't surprised Boris isn't running for Prime Minister. Michael Gove may or may not be elected leader but he has a consistent manner which feels genuine and believable.

 

WHAT?

There are liars and then there’s Boris Johnson and Michael Gove

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars

 

 

 

 

and regarding the eu, what but the most democratic and tolerant of bodies would ever let a person like Farage who does NOTHING but stand there and throw vitriol at it in its heartland ?

The UK parliament would have thrown Farage out and debarred him (if the UK voters hadn't already for the UK parliament) for saying far less than he has done there.

Junker wasn't sneering at Britain, in fact he said 'Cameron is still a friend,

 

and regarding the consequences for Britain, that was Junkers warning to alert the people, NOT a threat. AND it was true now WASN'T IT.

Edited July 2, 2016 by Andyorch
Personal remark removed.

[tobyjugg2]

So who will have the ir finger on the trigger of the no-clear option (article 50)

 

Gove?

The gaurdian thinks Jonson was backstabbed. I'm not certain.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/goves-thunderbolt-boris-johnson-tory-morning

 

Some excerpts as allowed

 

"The justice secretary had also repeatedly said he had no ambitions to be Tory leader, that he was unequipped for the demands of the job"

 

 

Catch me once, shame on you, catch me twice, shame on me, catch me thrice ....

Just a ouple of Goves credentials as a backstabbing liar:

 

"Months earlier, Gove took the decision to back leaving the EU, putting him at odds with his oldest political friends, David Cameron and George Osborne"

 

"Johnson, who had known Gove for almost 30 years since their days as contemporaries at the Oxford Union debating club.

Gove even backed Johnson’s bid to become president of the society in 1986, before going on to take the title himself two years later."

 

 

 

Now Heseltine said that it should be a Brexiter to lead otherwise they (Brexiters) would simply absolve themselves of all blame.

 

Now we are talking about the worst of the worst of the Tories here, so it is unlikely to be a Brexiter that wins the Con leadership,

 

It will be a remain or neutral who wins the Tory leadership, who is 'Just implementing the will of the people, lied to by rogues', absolving ALL of 'The Party' of blame.

 

 

and of course if euro leaver Carbuncle wins in the Labour civil war, he doesn't care as long as he secures his position as the first lifetime ruling Tsar of the Labour party.

[tobyjugg2]

Singapore’s United and Overseas Bank has suspended its loans program for all London properties

 

LOL

Wonder what the Russian mafia will think of Johnson and Gove for losing so much value off their portfolios?

 

Plutonium cocktail anyone?

[citizenB]

I wasn't surprised Boris isn't running for Prime Minister. Michael Gove may or may not be elected leader but he has a consistent manner which feels genuine and believable.

 

 

How can he be consistent and believable when he has said publicly on at least 2 occasions that a) he doesn't want to be prime minister and b) that he doesn't have the qualities to be prime minister ?

 

 

What makes him think in such a short space of time that he does now qualify ?

 

 

I guess his wife, Sarah Vine helped things along when she emailed Gove and also leaked it so it became public

 

 

From the Telegraph

On Tuesday a leaked email from Sarah Vine, Mr Gove’s wife, suggested the Justice Secretary did not trust Mr Johnson.

 

 

 

Here we go.. from his own mouth..

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-gove-rules-himself-out-of-leadership-contest-during-brexit-debate-a7064831.html

 

He said, I can tell you, I'm absolutely not." The one thing I can tell you is, there are a lot of talented people who could be prime minister after David Cameron but count me out"

 

[citizenB]

And further to my post above..

 

 

http://leftfootforward.org/2016/06/michael-gove-incapable-of-being-tory-leader-or-prime-minister-said-michael-gove/

 

 

According to one well-placed source, Gove was considered ‘incapable’ of leading his party, let alone the country, and ‘doesn’t have what it takes’ to do the top job.

 

That source was Michael Gove.

 

Here are eight times Gove said he wasn’t up to the task:

1.When asked about leadership ambitions during the EU campaign, Michael Gove replied:

 

‘I can tell you I’m absolutely not. The one thing I can tell you is there are lots of talented people who could be Prime Minister after David Cameron but count me out.’

 

 

– Michael Gove, Sky News, June 3, 2016

 

 

 

 

and

 

He was more explicit a few weeks earlier:

 

‘No, I’m not. There…I don’t want to do it and there are people who are far better equipped than me to do it. "

 

 

 

– Michael Gove, Telegraph, May 6, 2016

 

 

3.Just two weeks ago he was really hard on himself:

 

‘I don’t think I have got that exceptional level of ability required to do the job.’

 

 

– Michael Gove, Telegraph, June 18, 2016

 

 

 

 

So there you have it - he has no faith in himself, but expects the British Public to accept him as Tory Leader. !!

 

I think this man hopes to be a King maker in the hope of securing himself a top job when someone has more votes than him.

[Guest]

Shadow Chancer Mcdonnell says 'When Britain leaves the European Union, free movement of labour and people will then come to an end' (bbc). not quite right to assert that atm (another misleading statement, perhaps looking for voters?), all depends on what agreement is in place. note, that apparently it took Canada 7 years to negotiate an agreement. hopefully whatever is agreed wont take that long...

[Guest]

ie eg (albeit prior to the ref)

http://www.cityam.com/235957/canada-shows-why-aspiring-to-a-free-trade-deal-with-the-eu-post-brexit-would-be-a-huge-gamble

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-could-the-eu-canada-free-trade-deal-tell-us-about-brexit/

[unclebulgaria67]

Shadow Chancer Mcdonnell says 'When Britain leaves the European Union, free movement of labour and people will then come to an end' (bbc). not quite right to assert that atm (another misleading statement, perhaps looking for voters?), all depends on what agreement is in place. note, that apparently it took Canada 7 years to negotiate an agreement. hopefully whatever is agreed wont take that long...

 

Quite a few on the Labour left do not like the EU. I suspect Corbyn voted to leave. They see it as a club that ensures corporate interests are protected, while interests of ordinary citizens are ignored. They don't like the EU facilitating company profits being exported to avoid tax and they were concerned TTIP would look after corporate interests making it even worse.

 

BUT i think they forget that it could be even worse with Tory majority government guaranteed with hard left led Labour permanently in opposition, while the UK after Brexit still allows most of the current pro business rules to continue. The UK may well go further in encouraging business by reducing coproration taxes and facilitating even more tax avoidance.

 

If you want to reform the EU now is probably the best time, as there is a chance that the EU decides it must reform to stop it collapsing altogether. According to reports Banks in Germany and Italy have failed stress tests. If there is another Banking crash while Brexit is being negotiated, it will be worse than the 07/08 crash.

 

Nb. I have no problem with low competitive corporation tax rates, but this often means more personal taxes direct abd indirect affecting people.

[Guest]

...but expects the British Public to accept him as Tory Leader. !!

not me, even despite his (another false) promise of 100m/week extra for the nhs

[tobyjugg2]

EU trade commisioner

NO TRADE TALKS UNTIL FULL BREXIT

WTO rules will apply

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/cecilia-malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto

 

 

Osbourne abandons 2020 surplus plans

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/01/george-osborne-scraps-2020-budget-surplus-plan

 

 

Easyjet starts negotiations for eu air license and is expected to move to the location if any issues with UK access to EU (see above)

https://next.ft.com/content/e4956832-3f87-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a

[Guest]

yep, around 2 years for exit, then the negotiations.

 

as said in the link, re one of the Leavers' favs' Norway; 'as one Norwegian politician told the Confederation of British Industry, “if you want to run Europe, you must be in Europe. If you want to be run by Europe, feel free to join Norway in the European Economic Area.”'

[unclebulgaria67]

If you think about this, no politician in any position of power who is in favour of remaining in the EU would be willing to say this publicly, effectively saying they will ignore the referendum vote. They would face massive criticism from the media and put the safety of, family, staff and themselves at risk.

 

My gut reaction is that many politicians at Westminster in favour of remaining in the EU are just waiting until the temperature cools down and if they see problems they can exploit, they will try to engineer a way of delaying triggering article 50 for as long as possible and seek a second referendum before the two years expire.

[unclebulgaria67]

It is possible that economics mights decide whether Brexit happens and not the referendum. If it looks like the UK will be in budget deficit for at least another 5 years, that could mean increased taxes and more cuts. If going for Brexit looks like making the situation worse, i could see the government stopping Brexit, by cancelling any EU exit process by any means. As the link suggests, the Tories economic plans have been scraped by the Brexit vote.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1720322/after-the-brexit-vote-what-next-for-austerity

[tobyjugg2]

Shows how clueless liam fox is (or how big a bullshiner)

 

"it was ridiculous to think that French and German politicians would have to go into their national elections next year telling their electorates they do not know how much French wine or German cars they are going to be able to export.

 

What a deceitful statement

They can still export to whoever they like (except countries with sanctions) including the UK, and the UK can impose WTO tariffs on any they import if they like, or even block imports if they like,

just like the EU can to any UK products exported to them.

 

Its just that they would be done under WTO rules once any EU agreements are void.

 

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

 

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/european_communities_e.htm

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=the+eu+and+wto+rules&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=ymh3V5GvIMK80gS0wpjYDg

 

 

 

 

AND Dont forget that despite being WTO members China and the USA blatantly flaunt (IMO) WTO rules which China and the USA seem to call 'mistaken methods' when caught.

 

I believe one of the main reasons for the USA pressing TTIP type agreements which are overall actually far WORSE than WTO agreements (except for the very few would would make money at everyone elses expense) is to shaft their 'trading partners' and avoid WTO sanctions for their abuses.

Nothing whatsoever to do with good trade relations.

 

... our new partners? God help us the devil really is in the detail,