Ukraine...

[labrat]

Your opinions?

 

Whats likely next?

 

personally i think russia will definatly try to annex at least the crimea section, although theres a good chance they might move in on the entire country

 

crimea definatly as their main black sea base is in crimea, its alot of expense to have built it, (doesnt the crimean base have the underground sub bays?), and i doubt the new goverment will extend the lease

 

rest of the country? they would have a major civil war + rights issues, but that doesnt really bother russia does it

 

they may want the rest of the country as it contains the main gas line to europe, yes it might damage europe if it gets turn off but if you look at the flip side is russias economy strong enough to go without getting paid for gas for a long time if ukrane shuts it down

[45002]

Well

 

If the West did try to stop and Putin and Co....

 

We may be all vaporized !

 

But

 

I doubt very much the West will do anything, a few stern words at the UN

 

Or it could be

 

MAD !

[labrat]

to be fair missiles are hard to maintain

 

some of russias are over 50 years old, still likely to work well?

[antone]

to be fair missiles are hard to maintain

 

some of russias are over 50 years old, still likely to work well?

 

Yes, probably. I mean, I don't think I'd hear a warning siren and think "Ach well, it's just an old Russian nuke, way past its use-by date."

 

But, Russia will not use nukes. No need. After all, Ukraine is an NPT signatory, so the rest of us would be obliged by treaty to help them if they did get blasted. Putin is great at brinkmanship, but he doesn't actually want a nuclear war. After all, who would he sell all that gas to if he blew up the EU?

[Consumer dude]

The idea of blowing up the EU might bring a smile to Nigel Farage though..

[fletch70]

Ukraine does have a decent trained army so it can not be like Georgia. I think the end result may be a totally autonomous Crimea. Remember that western Ukraine does not like Russia although it's economy is a basket case. It will be a shame if such a beautiful country becomes out of easy reach

[antone]

The idea of blowing up the EU might bring a smile to Nigel Farage though..

 

Definitely, yes.

[Guest]

the beeb site seems to have a good sum of things re the discourse, hypocrisy, politics, etc that are/would be involved.

crimea is pretty much automonous, hence their request for russian support. and russias support, including protecting russias economic interests.

put simply, just like georgia, despite the rouble drop, there will prob be no real long term adverse consequences for russia. the wider politics are too much of an issue. and putin knows it. can/will the 'west' do anything?

[renegadeimp]

Let them sort out their own troubles, but make sure we look after the refugees. The last thing we need is to be forced into to a war, which is exactly what william hague and cameron is trying to do. It doesnt help when cameron is sucking up to the U.S either and all they want is an excuse to attack russia. I mean come on, they still hold a grudge stemming from the 60's.

[labrat]

bets on russia taking the right most third of ukraine as well tho thats where most of the gas fields are

[Guest]

thats whats funny, cynically. everyone was quick to help oust gadaffi for eg. he was a political enemy with no consequences and no friends. but, when it comes to the likes of egypt, saudi, burma, sudan, iran, syria, and now ukraine, etc the stakes are too high for the west partic, to do anything material. the politics

there'll be no war as such, just the usual political discourse.

mind you, as they say, war is a continuation of politics by other means

[renegadeimp]

Gadaffii couldnt fight back. The muppets in the US and Uk government KNOW that should they attack russia, then russia and china will nuke the crap out of both countries then go straight to lunch. The sad thing is, hague and cameron are so completely inept, they think russia wont do anything at all so they keep issuing threats.

 

The absolute last person in the world you really want to **** off is putin.

[fletch70]

Personally I would love to **** putin off. You talk about nuclear war remember we can still all blow the world to hell. Both sides. So if russia or china launched they would go under as well

[Guest]

Personally I would love to **** putin off. ..

 

ditto, it would be about time (so long as we (europe) could cheap'ish gas from elsewhere though! and they let the west act in syria, iran etc )

[renegadeimp]

You might want to **** putin off to breaking point. But would you want to deal with the fallout.... literally.

 

You talk about US and UK blowing up others, i think youd find out that russia and china are more capable than you think. Plenty of analysts and even intelligence suggests they would simply blanket bomb everywhere. SUre, the odd missile would get through to the US

 

I'd prefer no bomb to be fired, especially as its joe public that would be injured while all the people that caused it are safely tucked away in said bunkers.

[fletch70]

It is all posturing. Remember Putin doesnt want nuclear war anymore than we do. He just has to make up for lack of something else

[labrat]

nah to be fair i really doubt the entire nuclear war scenario

 

personally i dont think a nuclear war would do as much damage a people fear, yes it would wipe out aroud 70% of the worlds population but then that still leaves several mil

[fletch70]

Only 70% killed by the bomb leaving 1 billion to die in the aftermath of a nuclear winter disease etc. Oh nothing tp worry about. The industrialised world would have a much higher casualty rate. Are you bonkers

[determindator]

President Putin needs to make a statement. I suspect he hasn't yet because he hasn't decided how he wants to deal with the complexity of some people who want Russian rule and others who don't. The Russians wouldn't be there if the Ukranian Government hadn't broken down and then civil unrest starts. At the moment all i'm hearing is war mongering from us and USA. I believe Mr Putin will sit down with leaders to try and find a solution. I can only presume the majority of the Ukranian people want their independence. Maybe a national vote would solve it one way or another.

[Consumer dude]

President Putin needs to make a statement. I suspect he hasn't yet because he hasn't decided how he wants to deal with the complexity of some people who want Russian rule and others who don't. The Russians wouldn't be there if the Ukranian Government hadn't broken down and then civil unrest starts. At the moment all i'm hearing is war mongering from us and USA. I believe Mr Putin will sit down with leaders to try and find a solution. I can only presume the majority of the Ukranian people want their independence. Maybe a national vote would solve it one way or another.

 

I know, lets call an urgent cag meeting. lol..

[fletch70]

Excuse me but who is warmongering

I think surrounding a national barracks with foreign soldiers and taking over border crossings is not exactly peace loving.

Putin thinks he is still the party chairman and can not abide the thought of anyone favouring anyone but Russia

[Guest]

... Maybe a national vote would solve it one way or another.

 

that was the plan apparently following the 'coup'?, but apparently the ousted president asked for russian help, and they were only too happy to oblige (to protect their interests, one eg the crimean black sea ports?)

[rebel11]

Apparently something ridiculous like $42 billion missing from their central bank, ex-president and cohorts.

[Guest]

Apparently something ridiculous like $42 billion missing from their central bank, ex-president and cohorts.

 

the usual clear the accounts in favour prior to being deposed? nice retirement and no doubt they'll get asylum in the uk to enjoy their retirement?

[rebel11]

Man/woman-kind are evolving, not looking good.

 

the usual clear the accounts in favour prior to being deposed? nice retirement