Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

12 minutes ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Why don't you ask Peston ? He is on Twitter and might reply.

 

 

I thought you would have at least sanity checked it before apparently promoting/reproducing it here

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, hightail said:

Allowing people to mix at all is building variant factories.  They're going to be with us for evermore.  We live with them for flu - that's not the same as saying Covid is the same as flu btw.  We tailor vaccines year on year which work for the majority and we have an accepted death rate.  I can't see how living with Covid can be any different.

 

Beggars the questions:

 

R0 is the rate in an un-vaccinated population - like our kids.

 

Things like Masks, Hands ars err space have proven to be effective - Far more effectively and cost effectively than sit in a call center and play games 

- so if you need to get rid of something - get rid of serco test and trace and give the money to local test and trace - NOT what works

Edited July 5, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

What death rate is acceptable, hightail?

I said accepted, not acceptable.  I don't know offhand what the flu death rate is but it's in the thousands most years isn't it? 

Edited July 5, 2021 by hightail

[unclebulgaria67]

@tobyjugg2  Link to an article on this.

 

Israel confirms vaccine less effective against Delta variant, eyes third dose

WWW.TIMESOFISRAEL.COM

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PM Bennett instructs Health Ministry to promote medical studies into long-term efficacy of Pfizer vaccine to provide decision-makers with 'vital...

 

 

[honeybee13]

From The Health Foundation.

 

This quote jumps out from data published in March this year.

 

In a bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250,000 life years. This is a sixth of the life years lost to COVID-19.

 

One year on: Three myths about COVID-19 that the data proved wrong

WWW.HEALTH.ORG.UK

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The Health Foundation is an independent charity committed to bringing about better health and health care for people in the UK. Find out more...

 

[tobyjugg2]

@hightail

Very rough estimates would put that death rate at from 3x the flu death rate upwards depending on mitigations (vaccinations, effective tracing and quelling new variants and the new variants themselves)

 

With schools as variant factories, and taking the other mitigations offline would be a disaster waiting to happen - with potentially all the heartbreak and self denial thats gone before wasted and God knows what the multiple will be.

 

 

and yes, was broadly aware of those Israeli stats @unclebulgaria67,  although I hadn't seen that 64% and still haven't seen the detail around that 64% claim. Seen the other higher figures stated.

 

the figures I gave are from the UK stats via the devolved governments reporting (hidden by Johnsons) where the Delta and other concerning variants seem to be more entrenched so should actually be worse than the Israeli figures - as they are apart from that odd 64%

 

In all cases I've seen, pfiser exceeds the O/AZ effectiveness by around a 25-33% margin - so good job the Israelis sold on their O/AZ rather than use them eh?

Note that Israel was one of those countries that looked to trade its O/AZ vaccine supplies rather than use them - they thought so badly of it.

 

 

 

What COVID vaccines are used in different countries, including the UK, US, China and Israel - ABC News

WWW.ABC.NET.AU

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The race to vaccinate is a marathon, not a sprint, with countries around the world looking to multiple suppliers to help get them over the finish line.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Just seen HBs post which puts the death toll way beyond the 3* flu roughly projected in a largely vaccinated society with effective mitigations in place, and thats before Johnson drops the mitigations we have .. understandable given the vaccine rollout timing

 

"In a bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia"

So an inoculated society with effective mitigations in place, we would be looking at around 90-100,000 extra deaths a year

.. admittedly mostly in older folk ... but not all by any means - and COV is proving it spreads and mutates where it can.

 

and what Johnson may be relying on - reduction in figures as those susceptible die ... depending on mutations changing their behaviour and no longer getting nastier

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

14 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

In a bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250,000 life years. This is a sixth of the life years lost to COVID-19.

It's a sixth of the life years lost to Covid when Covid was a new virus sweeping the planet with little effective treatment and no vaccine.  I completely accept that.  Going forward that is unlikely to continue to be the case.

 

1 minute ago, tobyjugg2 said:

So an inoculated society with effective mitigations in place, we would be looking at around 90-100,000 extra deaths a year

.. admittedly mostly in older folk

That figure is roughly what we had last year isn't it in a completely unvaccinated population? 

[tobyjugg2]

17 minutes ago, hightail said:

It's a sixth of the life years lost to Covid when Covid was a new virus sweeping the planet with little effective treatment and no vaccine.  I completely accept that.  Going forward that is unlikely to continue to be the case.

 

That figure is roughly what we had last year isn't it in a completely unvaccinated population? 

 

I take your point on that, and dont have the actual figures to hand for last year and they are awkward to sort out from the spreadsheets when not on a good connection - but I think it was a fair bit higher than that - if youll look it up for me - excess deaths and include the lower flu etc figures which are of course relevent.

 

and last I looked, if i remember rightly (connected through a phone at moment) deaths were reported around 14% higher last year, but that included a drop in the deaths from some areas (which means the actual covid impact is higher) and had large scale mitigations - like lock downs, school closures, mask wearing ... and a less virulent strain.

 

Dont forget that delta plus is both more transmissible and more deadly -as indicated above with the vaccines getting less effective - so with mitigations reduced - hence spread increased, vaccines effectiveness reduced, and a useless numpty running things (as this defines) ...

We are barely off from the start not at the endgame

 

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

1 minute ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Dont forget that delta plus is both more transmissible and more deadly -as indicated above with the vaccines getting less effective

More deadly matters very much if that means vaccines are rendered useless.  More transmissable is not necessarily the same concern.  Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine against rate of infection only doesn't give a true picture if the vaccine is still giving adequate protection from severe disease - as appears to be the case so far in Israel from what I've read.  

 

I'm not trying to argue that we're out of the woods and all is fine.  I do though think it's time for the media to stop using soundbites from 'experts' to make headlines. 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Here's an article from the Guardian about Covid compared with flu.

 

 

Why living with Covid would not be the same as flu | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Analysis: coronavirus is more contagious and more lethal than influenza, and we lack the same global protection mechanism

 

[tobyjugg2]

50 minutes ago, hightail said:

More deadly matters very much if that means vaccines are rendered useless.  More transmissable is not necessarily the same concern. 

 

But it is when transmission = mutation as it clearly seems to be ...

and dont forget that the kids are NOT vaccinated and apparently face a reduction in risk reducing practices

 

50 minutes ago, hightail said:

 

Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine against rate of infection only doesn't give a true picture if the vaccine is still giving adequate protection from severe disease - as appears to be the case so far in Israel from what I've read.  

 

Agree both aspects need to be looked at in appropriate ways

resistance to severe infection helps keep the figures and hospital stats looking good, but might encourage 'risky behaviour' which will increase spread and mutation increasing long term risk

and if the transmissiblity isnt reduced THAT is a recipe for disaster

 

It would appear at the moment transmissibility is reduced by around 50-60% (perhaps as much due to symptom reduction?)  So for calculation purposes roughly halves the effective r no.

 

Severe infection seems to be reduced by around 60-80% (o/az-pfiser) for current new variants and higher for the older variants - ignoring for the moment the strange 64% pfiser claim reportedly from israel which will perhaps become clearer as time passes

 

I certainly hope that delta plus type variants aren't bypassing even the mRNA vaccines seeming high efficiency so far

 

As my understanding sits, I still want the pfiser booster.

 

50 minutes ago, hightail said:

 

 I do though think it's time for the media to stop using soundbites from 'experts' to make headlines.

 

+1 - and not just the right wing rags.

 

[tobyjugg2]

The full range of lockdown easing will generate different views, but let me ask a simple question:

 

How many people here would feel comfortable getting on public transport where just half of the passengers wear a mask?

[hightail]

I plan on doing so soon.  Comfortable?  I will obviously be more aware of risk than before.  Will I continue to wear a mask? Maybe.  Probably.  Might depend on length of journey.  Fifteen minutes on the tube, yes.  Ninety minutes on a longer train journey, probably not.

Knowing my antibody levels does affect my attitude.  If I did not have this information I would probably be more worried.

[tobyjugg2]

I will continue wearing a mask, as I did before it was 'required

 

I understand that mask wearing is more about protecting others than personal risk taking. As discussed higher in the thread.

I only consider taking risks with my health when it is only my health at risk.

[hightail]

It isn’t so much a digital will or won’t continue to wear one, at least not for me.  It’s a case of being able to remove a mask legally for periods on a longer journey or not having to put one on to take the few steps from table to door when leaving a near empty restaurant.  It doen’t have to be all or nothing.

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I think that is where the confusion will be. What is required by law and what is recommended as a sensible precaution.

 

If you suddenly end social distancing on 19th July, I can see there being many personal disagreements in shops and offices around the UK. I see people who are anxious about going to shops, wearing a mask, visor, gloves etc and obviously staying clear of others. Whereas other people see very little risk and will not observe personal space of others. Arguments and fights will break out with Police being kept very busy. 

 

It would be better if Government kept some requirements in shops, offices and public transport until September.  Then see whether these remaining legal requirements can be lifted.

 

 

[hightail]

The removal of legal requirement to wear face coverings is a good example of the way anything to do with Covid is viewed and reported in extremes.  You’d think we were about to go from 100% to zero overnight.  We’re not.  Many never did because they don’t have to.  Many will carry on wearing one sometimes and plenty will continue on as we’ve been.  Some will continue wearing face coverings over and above what’s been required.  

 

The headlines of course are shouting that scrapping masks will mean we’re all doomed and I don’t think they’re necessary or helpful.  

[tobyjugg2]

Masks

* Cost little (BUT should be free)

* are small and easy to carry

* Cause little inconvenience if used properly - even to glasses wearers although there is some small inconvenience

* Do give effective protection to others and some protection (plus the indirect benefits of lower transmission) to yourself

 

The only 'extreme' is the cost/benefit balance of wearing them

 

** and removing the requirement, especially when high profile politicians will be seen NOT wearing a mask WILL mean that people will follow their example

 

 

This is quite clearly just another prime example of Johnson saying one thing that suites his political agenda, against the advise of real science, while he hopes enough people will have the common sense  to ignore him.

Edited July 6, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

@unclebulgaria67

 

I've found some detail on that 64% effectiveness for pfiser

Its apparently the real world results back from part of one study:

64% effectiveness in long term care patients with a median age of 84

and was found to be 90% effective for health care workers

 

 

Which is useful info particularly given some countries choosing to use O/AZ for older recipients

Also brings us back to a point earlier in the thread about who should be priority in getting the vaccines .. and who should have had and should get other protective methods as a priority

Although I havent seen any confirmations that o/az is any better but clear and concise reporting is sadly lacking as hightail stated.

Edited July 6, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and heres the article  and a relevant other - including the 64% apparently reported by Preston above, seemingly completely without the very necessary context

 

Six months of COVID vaccines: what 1.7 billion doses have taught scientists

WWW.NATURE.COM

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At a pivotal moment in the pandemic, Nature explores key questions about the vaccines that countries are racing to deliver while viral variants spread...

 

 

Scientists identify long-sought marker for COVID vaccine success

WWW.NATURE.COM

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Knowing which signatures in the blood predict protection against COVID-19 could speed the development of new vaccines. Knowing which signatures...

 

 

"The results² showed (pfiser-biontec vaccine) was 64% effective in long-term-care residents with a median age of 84,

and 90% effective in health-care workers

— which struck Moustsen-Helms as good news, given that immune responses in older people can be muted."

 

"A nationwide vaccination campaign in Israel found the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine, co-developed by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, to be 95% effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection seven days or more after the second dose³."

 

"These studies suggest that virus-blocking ‘neutralizing’ antibodies are a good predictor of a vaccine’s success. Those that trigger high levels of these antibodies, such as the Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna jabs, are more effective than the Oxford–AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, which generated relatively low levels of neutralizing antibodies."

 

and really worthy of note:

"last month, London-based Public Health England reported⁴ that the Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines are both 85–90% effective in preventing symptomatic disease after two doses. It cautioned, however, that it had low statistical confidence in the result for the Oxford–AstraZeneca jab

(O/AZ claimed result is quite clearly contradicted in other studies)

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

I have been working at home since January this year, as I can do my work remotely and it makes room in the office for colleagues who need to be office based.

 

Following the Governments announcement just weeks before Children start their Summer holidays, I can see many employers just thinking this is an absolute nightmare.  Trying to make any necessary changes to handle increased volumes of work following end of lockdown, during the peak annual leave period, will be very difficult.

 

Brilliant timing by Government.  Making any significant change at this time of the year, which will have a dramatic impact on businesses, is less than ideal.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

All my immediate and close family have continued working through the pandemic, with stints of working from home for some where possible.

One was briefly furloughed for a grand total of 2 weeks.

Most have continued at their workplaces, especially a number who are NHS staff who have worked and still continue to work considerably harder over the period

and a couple who work across the country altough their home working % has increased where possible.

 

A couple of self employed friends have been quite extensively furloughed - a driving instructor as one example

- and without his other half's income, they would have lost everything.

 

All have maintained safe practices throughout - not just the NHS staff.

Edited July 6, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

rather see "bodies pile high in their thousands" than order a third lockdown

Boris Johnson

 

.. err make that 'than maintain sensible precautions'

[unclebulgaria67]

Data predicts 2m UK summer Covid cases with 10m isolating | Coronavirus | The Guardian

 

Two million people could contract Covid this summer, potentially meaning up to 10 million must isolate in just six weeks, Guardian analysis shows, prompting warnings over risks to health and disruption to the economy.