Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

This article dates back to July but its author says that herd immunity is still being pursued.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/15/sagegate-government-still-chasing-long-term-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/

[cjcregg]

31 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Which point please?

 

I don't know how many different ways I can say it but a herd immunity policy (allow people to get infected) and a vaccination policy (prevent people from getting infected) are self-evidently opposing strategies. That they may achieve the same broad outcomes (not withstanding that many more people will die with herd immunity) is irrelevant to that consideration. 

 

Is that clear enough for you?

[hightail]

The only possible solution IS herd immunity however it’s achieved.  It is herd immunity which controls/prevents spread.  I’m struggling to see what other option exists other than us all cowering inside our homes for evermore.

[tobyjugg2]

Boris the Liar and cronies allege:

 

"Britain to fund expansion of rapid COVID-19 test trials"

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-testing/britain-to-fund-expansion-of-rapid-covid-19-test-trials-idUKKBN25T3FD

 

 

When asked when?

"Health minister Matt Hancock has said he hopes mass testing using faster COVID-19 tests can be rolled out towards the end of the year"

aka 'it might start to roll out some time in the future maybe'

 

Asked when it would be available for everyone:

"he said: “Over the coming weeks and months ahead"

aka 'some time in the future maybe'

 

Coming from Boris the Liar and crew, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Where are you intending to start?

"The funding will be used to expand existing trials of saliva tests and a rapid 20-minute test in southern England,

...while a new, community trial in Salford, northwest England, will assess the benefit of population-testing"

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

“The time was right to think about scaling up testing to the wider community and asymptomatic testing over the summer when we were relatively COVID-secure,”

- Alan McNally, Professor of Microbial Evolutionary Genomics at the University of Birmingham

[tobyjugg2]

A little note on Vacuous Vallances 60% herd immunity statement in that vid

 

That was based on a Covid R0 (its spread rate in a completely susceptible population) of 2-2.5

 

That was already out of date from compelling studies a month before eg:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

which had already indicated that Covids r0 was much higher - up to R0 - 6

 

Evidence for the far highr Covid R0 rate has grown quite conclusively

with even wiki more up to date than Vallence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

Do be careful of understanding the differences between Infection/transmission and symptomatic/asymptomatic transmission

 

remembering that asymptomatic is NOT immune - What does the difference between r0 of 2 and 6 mean?

(basically what percentage of the population needs to be immune/immunised to minimise spread) :

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

On 05/03/2020 at 12:36, tobyjugg2 said:

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson said measures such as closing schools and banning big events "don't work as well perhaps as people think".

He told ITV's This Morning programme another way of responding to the virus would be to "take it on the chin" and allow it to "move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures".

Mr Johnson said it would be "business as usual" for the "overwhelming majority" of people in the UK"

 

as:

"Downing Street has confirmed that Boris Johnson is in talks with the parliamentary authorities about a possible shutdown if the outbreak continues to get worse."

 

and:

""Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has been holding talks with medical experts and officials about the prospect of suspending Parliament until the worst of the virus blows over"

 

 

 

Little reminder from earlier in the thread where Johnson was planning the parliamentary shutdown while suggesting everyone else 'take it on the chin' and 'business as usual'

[tobyjugg2]

On 02/09/2020 at 14:11, tobyjugg2 said:

 

Schools returning is not just about educating the kids .. Tories don't give a crap about poor kids schooling - or even poor kids eating ...

... Its about getting their parents back into the office and town centers to save Tory voters businesses.

 

 

 

British Retail Consortium says empty office blocks mean city centres deprived of customers

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/04/government-must-do-more-to-get-public-back-into-shops-say-retailers

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

It's all a bit pointless. Getting Kirstie Allsop and random right wing Daily Mail hacks, to  shame people into risking their lives on the London underground so that they can fill a miserable empty office building really isn't going to work.

 

Employers everywhere have now discovered that they can save 10's of thousands per month, and not lose any productivity, by dumping the office. Employees have discovered that they have Thousands of pounds more to spend a year, and many hours given back to them per week.  No government campaign has the power to put that genie back in the bottle, which is a good thing.

 

 

[cjcregg]

18 hours ago, London1971 said:

 

Employers everywhere have now discovered that they can save 10's of thousands per month, and not lose any productivity, by dumping the office. 

 

 

That may be true of some employers but not for a significant amount that are dependant on footfall in towns & cities. 

 

I live near a commuter town 40 minutes from London and even now the railway station car park which has 450 spaces and is normally full by 7am, has just 20 cars parked on any given weekday. I took a train a couple of weeks ago in 'rush hour' on a Monday morning and was literally the only passenger in the carriage. 

 

London is a ghost town and it's shocking to witness. 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

“Operation Moon Shot” is the informal name by which the government has very deliberately allowed it to become known."

"This is to involve a Covid-19 testing regime of several million tests per week, or even per day, with results that come back in 20 minutes using technology that does not currently exist, and thus allowing life to return almost to normal."

 

It will never happen, of course

 

"It is unfortunate that Johnson allowed himself to get stuck in a kind of feedback loop of overpromising and underdelivering.

See, for example, sending the coronavirus packing in 12 weeks. The “world-beating” test and trace app, due end of (last) May."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/matt-hancock-tony-abbott-interview-operation-moon-shot-boris-johnson-a9705726.html

Edited September 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

BN, they can't even organise the testing that they have properly, can they? I read earlier that testing capacity and/or kits are being diverted from the North East, say, to other areas that have fewer cases. I don't get it.

[honeybee13]

This is the article. The quote is from the CMO for Gateshead, I think.

'

Gannon said test results were taking days to process because they were being sent to a laboratory in Milton Keynes, despite local expertise and capacity being available.

 

Gannon said a child was tested recently under both the local pillar 1 system at hospital, and the national system: the local result came back within four hours but they were still waiting for the national one more than a week later.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/04/covid-tests-running-out-in-north-east-england-gateshead-as-cases-surge

[tobyjugg2]

must be doing close to the '300,000 tests a day capacity' HB

 

... as if

 

Figures I've seen which apparently include all the 'ghost ones is barely half that,

with actual people tested closer to half that again

[tobyjugg2]

 

Do note that these UK figures are total tests apparently including things like testing kits sent out and never returned, tests counted twice and/or done twice counted as 2/3/4 etc

- so perhaps better describable as actual real 'capacity'

- especially as on a number of days (as I experienced) people are unable to get tests anywhere let alone locally.

 

The French figure is actual people tested.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=2020-04-01..2020-08-27&country=GBR~FRA

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

First one explains why steroids are good for some with severe Cov

Second far more technical, but describes the likely mechanisms Cov uses

 

https://theconversation.com/steroids-cut-covid-19-death-rates-but-not-for-everyone-heres-who-benefits-and-who-doesnt-145605

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/05/a-supercomputer-analysed-data-on-covid-19-and-helped-come-up-with-this-new-hypothesis

 

[tobyjugg2]

Boris Johnson pinning hopes on £100bn 'moonsh*t' to avoid second lockdown

Creating 'moonsh*t' reportedly relies on elements rarer than rocking horse muck

 

ie

* testing over 100,000 people a day (actually testing over a million people a day)

* Available local testing

* Regular testing of all front line workers and school kids on site

* Results from testing back within hours, not weeks/not at all

* Investment in local test and trace

* an effective vaccine(s)

* politicians and spads leading by example

* Competent and effective leadership

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/boris-johnson-pinning-hopes-on-covid-testing-moonshot-leaked-papers-show

 

 

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

conspiracy theorists believe Covid-19 is purely Government finding ways to control people and the vaccines will help with this in some way.  They seem to believe that globalists are behind it, as they realised the world could not continue as it was, due to population numbers, environment, natural resources supply not meeting demand, technology reducing jobs etc.

 

I can see why they might come to this view, but it would be a pretty extreme way for Governments to tackle world problems.  Complete rubbish in my opinion peddled by some people who make money from websites, books etc they sell to people who tend to like conspiracy theories.

[tobyjugg2]

I agree, but given Johnson the Liar and crews utter incompetence/negligence some might think 'no senior person in government could be that incompetent/negligent and retain the support of their party, let alone get elected, so it must be deliberate.

 

I can understand where they come from

 

With handcock being pulled up by the speaker for talking to news outlets about changes in lockdown 'before (still hasn't has he) notifying parliament - despite having just been there ... despite he and his brexit pals claiming it was all about bringing power back to Parliament?

 

Let alone handcock claiming that the shortfall in tests is not due to any lack of tests or him lying about capacity, but caused by all those people who tested negative wasting the tests ... clearly they should only be tested if the result will be positive .....

 

So criminal negligence/incompetence ..  or deliberate plan?

Neither seems anything a major developed western nation should realistically be suffering, let alone for so long.

 

 

Johnson will of course just spout more 'Moonsh*t'

Edited September 10, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

How could anybody have watched question time yesterday and not wished that the leader of the opposition was Prime Minister.

[tobyjugg2]

anyway, back to handcock saying people must have symptoms before they are tested.

 

Has nobody told him that 75-80% of infected people are asymptomatic?

 

About time somebody did before we get a really uncontrolled outbreak

- or is that what he  prefers rather than owning up to his own BS claims re testing and testing capacity?

 

Does he really prefer people die rather than he ( handcock) is simply a tiny little more clearly shown to be just another self-serving liar

[tobyjugg2]

As infections continue to spike 

Handcock +sercos don't test and don't trace figures still dont hold water

 

"The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said on Thursday that 1.2m tests were being carried out per week, adding that there was capacity for 300,000 per day."

 

"The government no longer publishes daily testing figures, but the latest available figures say 175,687 tests were reported on 2 September, while the estimated total capacity reported by laboratories for that day was 369,937."

 

"Leaked documents revealed the 185,000 backlog and the fact that tests are being sent to German and Italian laboratories for processing, according to the Sunday Times."

(- LOL eat that with your toast Brexiters)

 

 

So as we are seeing

* Claims that people are being sent 100's of miles (waste of time if labs have no capacity left and if labs have capacity then tests could easily be sent there from anywhere in batches)

* Day after day with no tests or the odd one appearing here and there around the country ... whattt!!!

* Largest single day tests reported being 175,687 0f a claimed 300,000 per day capacity

 

So my calculations of 175,000 absolute peak capacity and around 75,000 per day actual sustained capacity would seem to be spot on,

and Handcockian + Johnsonite liars are ... lying massively about capacity and capability

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/covid-tests-sent-to-italy-and-germany-as-uk-labs-are-overwhelmed

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

Tests are a mess.  Teacher in bangor North Wales only test available, 800 mile round trip to Inverness, rail fare if travelling today £400, £60 by car.

[tobyjugg2]

It would seem that ACTUAL capacity hasn't increased any since I did that estimate a month or so ago (its here somewhere for any who might claim its hindsight)

- perhaps I over-estimated it the actual max capacity then by a few 10's of thousands - but the figures all seem to be around the same still.

 

Seems quite clear to me that the summer 'lull' has been utterly wasted and capacity has simply NOT been increased in any significant way

- it SHOULD have been. Anyone with a few brain cells working could see that.

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I agree, TJ. Just like the last time, they knew a second wave would come, with a lot more notice than last time, but seem to have done precious little to prepare. And now they've lost control of the virus, don't even know where the outbreaks are and are trying to play catch up.

 

They've learned nothing over the last six months.

 

Meanwhile there's Operation Moonspaff spending £100bn on tests and systems that haven't been invented yet. I don't see the point.