Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

Good for them. It's starting to look as if local authorities that take over contact tracing and other parts of the system are doing better than the national system.

[brassnecked]

A sort of vindication for Dr North in the Graun

 

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/politics-traced-out/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/11/uk-government-serco-contact-tracing-contract-leaked-memo

[London1971]

Yes, it's been found that it's almost all related to the Honda Plant and Iceland distribution Depot outbreaks.

[honeybee13]

This is a bit too Brave New World for me. AI and machine learning for the NHS and other departments. Is this going to be a GIGO exercise - garbage in, garbage out?

 

Demonic thinks his job is safe I guess, but he could be trying to put people out of work.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/11/cabinet-office-launches-new-contract-system-for-ai-procurement-reducing-public-transparency/

[tobyjugg2]

Everything you need to know about Russia's coronavirus vaccine claims

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251722-everything-you-need-to-know-about-russias-coronavirus-vaccine-claims/

[honeybee13]

It seems a bit too early to judge, TJ.

 

So France, Monaco and other countries have been put on the naughty step and thousands of Brits aren't going to be able to get back in time to avoid quarantine.

 

I suppose it was their decision to travel and take the risk that things would change during their holidays, but I'm wondering if this is an over-reaction from HMG  after being so casual about things earlier.

 

Anybody who's prepared to take the risk of going to France when the FCO have said it's essential travel only is likely to find their insurance won't cover them for medical expenses and so on.

[tobyjugg2]

I think its politics and still presenting Brexits' 'nasty foreigners' ideologue as much as anything.

 

Surprised the world hasn't put the sick man of Europe on the naughty step.. especially with the constant figure fiddling and hiding.

Even with that and lack of testing we are up around a 1000+ a day new cases, 'despite compulsive serial liar Johnson claiming we are winning.

 

You only hide core statistics (actual sources for presented stats) when they are really bad.

Decent honest people don't even hide those.

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Agreed about it being politics and foreigner bashing.

 

There's a lot of 'adjusting' going on, isn't there? 10% taken off the deaths figure and very quietly, 10% or over 1.3m tests deducted from the 'available tests' figures.

[brassnecked]

Elephant is where are all the refugees getting off the rubber boats going to quarantine?

[tobyjugg2]

persistent

 

What about the many many more 'refugees' coming back from holiday/business trips etc?

 

We don't want them traipsing across the country , using public transport or taxis, and stopping off to get such non essentials as food on their way to eventual isolation (maybe)  now do we.

 

and the hotels local to airports do need the business .... or haven't they donated enough to the Tory party?

 

Nice big hotels with pop up testing in the spare space at airports before the folks are shipped there ...

They might even get to chat with people who have had a far more 'exciting' trip who are also awaiting test results eh? ...

 

What a wealth of information on the spread of the virus that would give .....

Well, provided it could be presented with a 'suitable' 'desirable' message that is.

.. Otherwise it could end up 'just' another liability to Johnson rhetoric couldn't it?

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Even with that and lack of testing we are up around a 1000+ a day new cases, 'despite compulsive serial liar Johnson claiming we are winning.

I suspect all Boris cares about is those cases which become serious enough to warrant hospital treatment and they do seem to be tailing off.  They're obviously worried about the normal winter rush coinciding with a further spike but beyond that it's the economy matters more.

[cjcregg]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Agreed about it being politics and foreigner bashing.

 

 

 

So you actually believe that the decision to put some countries on the quarentine list is because the UK Government wants to be seen to bash foreiners? 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

What worries me is children returning to school ready for the colds and flu season, and the ramifications if you just say - what then.

 

Younger children (pre adolescence) do seem to tend to present far fewer symptoms (specifically coughing and sneezing blowing the covid viral load about), quite probably due to immature immune systems, although older children (teens) seem to be more in line with adult symptoms and spread - the majority of which are also apparently 'asymptomatic (they dont cough/sneeze/spread much)

 

but what will a traditional cough, cold or flu do to covid in a young child or asymptomatic teen/adult?  and then to everyone around them?

and to covids mutation rate?

 

All those (large majority apparently) covid asymptomatic who might not spread the virus due to their immune systems dealing with covid in a less dramatic way

- suddenly might be spreading it like a super spreader due to something as innocuous as a simple cold.

 

This autumn/winter is quite possibly the real danger zone.

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

There are reams of info and studies, but here's an easy to read summery with little techno-blurb

Note the 3 meter (10 feet) distance which has long been accepted for 'close (sic) proximity interactions with flu

 

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20101213/flu-spreads-fast-among-high-school-students

 

" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Droplets from an infected person can reach a susceptible person in close proximity, typically a distance of less than 3 meters [about 10 feet], making CPIs highly relevant for disease spread.""

 

 

Hows that going to work in classrooms with 15, let alone 30 kids or more?

or cramped corridors even with staged 'class' movements in schools with 250, let alone 1000+ of our children?

How long will the teachers last?

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

3 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

So you actually believe that the decision to put some countries on the quarentine list is because the UK Government wants to be seen to bash foreiners? 

 

 

 

I'm afraid I wouldn't rule it out. Brexiters are looking for people to blame rather than themselves and foreigners are often fair game.

[cjcregg]

14 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

 

I'm afraid I wouldn't rule it out. Brexiters are looking for people to blame rather than themselves and foreigners are often fair game.

 

So you're telling me you wouldn't rule it out but agreeing with others it's true without qualification. Hardly objective.

 

There is no evidence it's true and not even Labour are suggesting it. Like I say, opinions are fine but they are worthless unlesss they have at least some factual basis.

 

Germany put Spain on their quarentine list yesterday, are you blaming that on Brexiteers too?

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

 Like I say, opinions are fine but they are worthless unlesss they have at least some factual basis.

 

 

 

ROFL Says the person who almost exclusively just posts his unsupported 'opinion', ... which actually seem to come straight from Boris the Liars Puerile book of Populist Jingles (2nd edition)

- but that is the populist way isn't it whether Russian troll bot or actual populist on a forum - point the finger of their own failings at others.

 

 

Back to reality:

People just have to google 'Johnson foreigner lies'

to get swamped with examples,

 

- or just 'Johnson lies' to get his divisive hate and division peddling on everything  racist/foreigner bashing/ misogynistic/the list goes on .. peddling to name but a few.

 

Heres just a couple of examples from literally thousands across the world:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/37-lies-gaffes-scandals-make-18558695

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-record-sexist-homophobic-and-racist-comments-bumboys-piccaninnies-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-brexit-middle-east-priti-patel-israel-balfour-robert-fisk-a9030356.html

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

 

Now your turn to catch up supporting your many 'opinion' posts Mr unsupported populist opinionist. ..

.. A little help: Try googling 'boris Johnson competent'

oops that  wont help you.

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

Looks like as good a precis of how they messed up , and why putting   data Loss Dido in charge of PHE's replacemnt is extreme Muppetry.

Dido shouldn't be anywhere near a position of authority, stacking shelves properly in a supermarket is beyond her ability.

 

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/corona/coronavirus-the-blame-game-2/

[tobyjugg2]

couple of points:

 

1. that seems to assume that the 'flu' pandemic will effectively spring up out of nowhere for some strange reason

 

2. Doesn't actually detail the political input and control to the processes

Lets not forget that Johnson et al are calling the privately run farce 'NHS test and trace'

[brassnecked]

Should be called Handoncock Serco T & T, TJ.

[unclebulgaria67]

Lots of local lock downs become a more widespread lock down ?

 

Is this likely to happen in the Autumn ?

 

Hopefully this won't happen, but this virus has not gone anywhere, as shown in New Zealand with no new cases for 100 days and then suddenly an outbreak.

 

Based on the cases reported worldwide increasing, I think it is pretty likely that  by mid-September with the Schools/colleges re-open, that there will be a large increase in cases. And this will lead to actions by Government which will put the country back to where we were a few months ago. 

 

As for people going back to work in offices, if they have been working from home, that is a bad idea, particularly, if people have Children living with them. 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Seems to me they are desperately hoping for some effective as yet unavailable/unproven mechanism to quell any issues London.

 

If there isn't one, they will undoubtedly just put something out claiming 'the science told us at the time' like with all the farces so far, like 'masks are a danger' 'travelling across the country while infected and visiting beauty spots is being a hero' 'we didn't know that people returning from hotspots abroad would be travelling across the country home and who would have thought that would spread infection'

 

 

Some interesting possible options appearing based on the 'decoy' technique. 

(Hijacking/blocking the 'spike' the virus uses to attach to cells - think of a barrier spray - or virus condom)

 

Heres an animal antibody based one

https://scienceblog.com/517955/aeronabs-promise-powerful-inhalable-protection-against-covid-19/

 

Heres a more 'traditional' sourced approach

(Just watch the iodine levels)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6780838/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-cell-seaweed-outperforms-remdesivir-blocking.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fucoidan

http://www.seaweed.ie/algae/phaeophyta.php

 

 

Background on COVID testing methods and Issues

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/standard-coronavirus-test-if-available-works-well-can-new-diagnostics-help-pandemic

 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

India can seem to manage 900,000 tests in a day

 

"India has carried out nearly 900,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, a record for the country, as it fights a surge of Covid-19 cases."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/global-report-india-hits-900000-daily-tests-amid-surge-in-coronavirus-cases

 

Even if India have done similar to Handcock in reaching a fuddled max tests figure, certainly makes the Tory (lack of) testing 'efforts' look really feeble doesn't it?

 

 

Of course populists would (mis)interpret and (mis)represent that as:

 'see loads of tests and they still have a surge - told you testing was worthless waste of money that could be given to serco and G4S'

 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

The Testing was an afterthought when it finally dawned on them you can't handle a SARS like  with a flu plan, so the let it rip spread and gain Herd Immunity was completely wrong idea.  they have been on the back foot ever since.

[honeybee13]

I agree with what you're both saying. One of the things that annoys me is that every time the government is given a breathing space, like when they knew what was coming from Italy warning us or during lockdown, they seem to have turned their attention to something else rather than trying to be prepared for the next phase.

 

I just pray that they've stocked up with enough PPE for NHS and care home staff while things have been quieter.

 

It's quite depressing that they're using Covid as an excuse to scrap Public Health England. Even people who didn't think the Andrew Lansley reforms were a good idea think it works well enough not to need to be merged into Data loss Dido's agency. I think we mentioned before that her Conservative MP husband wants to privatise the NHS.

 

On a more positive note, a group of public health experts have written to the government saying there needs to be more local involvement and pointing out the disparity between the £10bn allocated to private testing and the £300m given to local authority public health people, who are being called upon to do more and more work to compensate for shortcomings in the 'Pillar Two' system. I hope someone listens to them.