Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

It may have been fixed, Fingers crossed.

[tobyjugg2]

Supplement to: Krause PR, Fleming TR, Peto R, et al. Considerations in boosting 
COVID-19 vaccine immune responses. Lancet 2021; published online Sept 13. 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02046-8.

 

 

S0140673621020468_Appendix.pdf

[tobyjugg2]

More than 4m stopped wearing masks this summer in Britain, ONS data shows | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Report comes as government scientific adviser describes Tuesday’s maskless cabinet meeting as ‘toxic’ for public adherence

 

“Messaging is not only what you say, it’s what you do and what your policies convey,”

- Prof Stephen Reicher, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science and a psychologist at the University of St Andrews,

Edited September 16, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Locally I appear to be part of minority still wearing a mask when I enter shops or any public/work space where I am close to other people.

[tobyjugg2]

+1 and me too

 

Still a majority wearing masks at our local tesco including most of the staff at Tesco

.. and just about half at Aldi, with most of our local Aldi staff largely not wearing masks now while they barge past filling customer online orders, so that will no doubt spread to customers - as it seemingly is.

 

About a quarter of customers at morrisons - following Morrisons staff examples where only a minority wear masks

[brassnecked]

Mask wearing still mandated in shops in Wales, most comply and mainly those with exemption lanyards don't  obviously  Looks like Gordon Freeman's HEV suit  from Half Life and a closed system environment helmet with filtration next.

[tobyjugg2]

4 hours ago, brassnecked said:

Mask wearing still mandated in shops in Wales, most comply and mainly those with exemption lanyards don't

 

 Sounds like your Govs got a much better grasp of the realities than the numpties in England eh?

 

Hazmats needed here if you are intending to paddle among the sewage being poured into Englands waterways and harbors  - although they aren't mandated by the sh** pouring poopulists - as they only give a sh** about water company profits for pals

Edited September 16, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting that all these store still have occasional speaker messages asking customers to wear masks 'where possible'

but just like the incompetent morally vacuous inept Johnson, the constant in your face messaging overwhelms the occasional mumbling very other message in all but Tesco

Edited September 16, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

56 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Hazmats needed here if you are intending to paddle among the sewage being poured into Englands waterways and harbors

 

and maybe if you just want some milk from Morrisons,

... because simple masks protect others, and everyone wearing masks protects each other

-  it takes hazmats to protect you from those others not reciprocating ...

[tobyjugg2]

thought for the weekend

 

 

or a £50,000 (yep Fifty Thousand pounds) bonus to every nurse in the NHS

and STILL have 3 or 4 £billion left over for a vanity project tunnel or boat or some such

 

.. or perhaps better yet, the Irish app, a £5K bonus to every nurse, PLUS £30 billion in taxpayer money not wasted on Tory chum profits

Edited September 17, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Full Fact have said recently that the £37bn is an overestimate at the moment.

 

Misleading claims about Serco’s role in Test and Trace resurface - Full Fact

FULLFACT.ORG

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Most of the money spent on Test and Trace goes on testing. Serco plays a big part in tracing, but does not receive a majority of the funding.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Likely quite true HB, but my post immediately above makes no mention of how much of the £37B will be wasted on serco staff playing games in call centers and each of their 'employees' reaching maybe contact or 2 a week (and often after the isolation period should have ended) and how much wasted in other ways, like dido hardings expenses

 

Doesnt the local efficient and praised test and trace actually come from another budget?

 

My post is rather about :

 

 

“Unimaginable” cost of Test & Trace failed to deliver central promise of averting another lockdown - Committees - UK Parliament

COMMITTEES.PARLIAMENT.UK

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<p>In May last year NHS Test and Trace (NHST&T) was set up with a budget of £22 billion. Since then it has been allocated £15 billion more:...

 

Edited September 18, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Oh - full cost of irish test and trace for a more effective system is around £700 million with maybe a little more than half that again to go per year (aprox)

 

Compared to 13 Billion plus for the UKs plus the local costs - which local costs (which seemingly did most of the real work) alone probably amount to similar ball park to the Irish cost

 

No critique of local efforts intended - they worked wonders given the poopulist framework they toiled in.

Edited September 18, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Local authorities are doing an incredible job in the circumstances. As we've said all along, the money should have gone to them but HMG wanted to reinvent the wheel and give money to their cronies. 

 

I see Lord Bethell got sacked. It'll give him more time to devote to the Good Law Project law suit.

[tobyjugg2]

1. Using the test and trace app as a citizen data collection and sale exercise trashed it from day one for many - and nothings changed there or with more direct attempts to rip off peoples private and personal medical data to private sector pals to do what they like with - aka compile insurance databases

 

2. NOT use and fund the existing expertise, rather give middlemen pals with no products and no expertise loadsamoney

 

3. Not use and create UK businesses (as apposed to middlemen using foreign supplies) for PPE and tests - If they had, we could be supplying chunks of the world with UK tests and be a true global Britain rather than fund middlemen and china at premium prices and be a global chump

 

4. Put a useless Piers Morgan like dodo 'in charge' who thinks 'in charge' means expensive lunches and fire off some blatantly false soundbites while knowing sod all about whats going on.

 

5. demand people lock down at a ping with no confirmation of how and when you were supposed to have been put at risk, let alone a test

Edited September 18, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

 

[brassnecked]

Come on UB as far as PCR  Test at 40 cycles is concerned a cold IS covid.

[unclebulgaria67]

@brassnecked So does that mean when we have loads of people with common colds, that there will be a big increase in positive covid tests ?

 

 

[BazzaS]

37 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

Come on UB as far as PCR  Test at 40 cycles is concerned a cold IS covid.

And the UB asked if there were more common colds, would there be more “positive” covid tests.

 

It depends.

It depends on what you mean by “positive test”!

 

People want perfect tests: no false positive, no false negatives, so 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity, with resulting 100% “predictive values” (both pos and neg predictive values).

 

but those tests only exist in theory, not in practice.

 

As the number of tests change, the sensitivity and specificity don’t: they are a function of the test, not of the number of tests.

 

However, the positive and negative predictive values change with the prevalence of the condition.

more tests for whatever reason:  more false positives : in direct relation to the number of tests, as the sensitivity and specificity hasn’t changed.

 

But, with a falling prevalence of covid : the same number of “more tests” (due to more colds that aren’t covid), the same number of false positives still, but the number of true positives falls, so the positive predictive value of the test falls ……..

 

(and PPV and NPV are what matter to the individual : “what does my test result mean to me”, whereas sensitivity and specificity matter more to the scientists and statisticians…..)

 

 

As for “cycle time” : the lower the cycle time the more of the “target sequence” was present.

 

A high cycle time can mean a false positive (the “target sequence” was never really present, but got created during the process as an incidental effect of doing the PCR, and then gets “amplified” to the level of detection, so “signals positive” late in the process)

 

For targets where the organism can colonise, a late CT can reflect colonisation.

As an example : Almost all of us have our “respiratory tree” colonised with Pneumocystis jiroveci (what used to be called Pneumocystis carinii, the bug that causes Pneumocystis pneumonia in the immunocompromised). It isn’t causing an infection, it is just residing there minding its own business.

 

So, if I said “hey, do a bronchoscopy on me for fun, and send lots of PCP PCR’s!” : I’d expect them eventually to get a result that was positive, with a high cycle time.

”Positive test” but doesn’t indicate disease.

 

So, all tests should be interpreted in the light of their PPV / NPV, the “cycle time” (where relevant), if the organism can colonise, and the “pre-test probability” of the test.

[unclebulgaria67]

@BazzaS  I understand what you are saying.

 

The current position we  find ourselves in ( UK & other countries) is very confusing.

 

The opening up of international airtravel for people with vaccine certificates and negative tests, is just going to mean that as more people travel, the more chance of new Covid variants spreading. 

 

And then add in people having seasonal colds and flu etc. 

 

Businesses and workers are going to find this is all very difficult.    Having staff not turn up for work, as they have colds, but are being cautious, as it could be Covid, wiill be very disruptive. 

[honeybee13]

I agree, UB. OH's workplace has said that anyone who has cold-like symptoms should stay at home for 10 days, even if they have a negative Covid test.

 

But at the same time, they've organised a conference in London for people from all over the world to meet in person. OH didn't want to go when he was told about it and fortunately, he has a meeting that clashes with the dates.

[unclebulgaria67]

The problem will be employers taking HR action on sickness.

 

If someone has several cold related absences  over the Autumn/Winter period and the employers only ignore absences due to Covid, I  can see them facing action on their sickness.

 

I can see line managers and HR staff being very busy. 

 

Does make total sense for businesses to tell staff with any of the Covid symptons to stay away from work  for a few days and only return to work when feeling better, after receiving a negative test.

 

Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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As more people mix again, the common cold is back - and leaving people floored.

 

[brassnecked]

That UB is going to be an issue, distinguishing Covid from other stuff.

[BazzaS]

I agree with UB that there is a rationale to business telling staff with respiratory diseases to stay home even with a negative Covid test.

 

1) unlikely it’s a false negative covid test (there are much better targets than the initial “ref.,lab. only, PCR), but there still can be false negatives

2) even if it isn’t Covid, you don’t want people with symptoms in spreading it to others, who will then need to get Covid tested and isolate, as when they get symptoms the “could this be Covid” cycle restarts anew for someone else.

Edited September 24, 2021 by BazzaS

[hightail]

OMG I can't stop laughing - in a hopeless sort of way.  Tomorrow I'm going somewhere which requires a negative LFT - done within the previous 48 hours and with the appropriate official notification.  First time I've had to do this.

So -

'I' do the test

'I' scan in the QR code

'I' tick a box which declares a negative result

I get the NHS notification to my phone saying I've tested negative.

 

Somebody please explain the point of the exercise to me.  Did I even need to bother sticking something up my nose?  I could probably have just scanned in a QR code without testing.

Edited September 26, 2021 by hightail