Mutating Corona Virus

[hightail]

4 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

2, The immune response will likely rebuild anti-bodies if infected/contact, but how fast? Fast enough to prevent spread and severe illness? In some yes, in others (including olde - unlikely)

Response is so individual.  I'd like to think that a good antibody response is an indicator of worthwhile T cells but I don't think I've seen anything which guarantees that.  I can't think it wouldn't be in my case as it's most likely exercise which has kept my immune system fit.

[tobyjugg2]

On 09/12/2021 at 07:12, unclebulgaria67 said:

Economics before health ?  Hospitality sector on its knees financially, so Government does not want to see many businesses fail. 

 

Christmas is when money is made, so any proper lockdown will happen in January.

 

Hospitals may be on their knees shortly - Johnson is juggling hospitality vs hospitalisation

[honeybee13]

There's an awful story from France today.

 

A young mum arived at A&E with respiratory symptoms and when asked, said she'd been vaccinated twice. She had a health pass and a vaccination certificate.

 

When they checked her antibody levels, they found she didn't have any anti-covid ones so they asked her husband about it. He told them she never wanted to be vaxxed, so she'd bought a fake health pass for 200€ and a fake vaccine certificate as well.

 

Sadly, they were unable to save her.

[tobyjugg2]

I think many of such could end up very ill with omicron - and given that they would only be paying for passes if they intend to use them where they are declared as needed, they are putting others at risk too

All such should be prosecuted as if they were passing fake currency IMO

[unclebulgaria67]

I have heard of a few recent cases, where people have been admitted to hospital days after having positive covid tests results back.  Not sure whether these have been vaccinated previously.

 

The Daily Mail is reporting that 2 jabs of any vaccine offer very little protection against Omicron.

 

Glad I attended the walk in centre to have the booster jabs. 

 

Once Government have allowed hospitality to earn money Christmas and New Year, I can see a lockdown.  May be two weeks lockdown from 3rd January.

[tobyjugg2]

seems the reports that the Omicron variant needs only a brief contact before fast spread into the body is quite true and perhaps even understated

 

i recall one of the earlier infections  traced to an apparent brief meeting at an open door ,, now seems quite possible.

[hightail]

23 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

I think many of such could end up very ill with omicron - and given that they would only be paying for passes if they intend to use them where they are declared as needed, they are putting others at risk too

It isn't the ones who get very ill who are the main problem surely.  It will spread mainly from those who are symptom free.  That's actually a bigger problem if it turns out that it is less virulent.  I guess we'll know in the next couple of weeks.

Edited December 12, 2021 by hightail

[unclebulgaria67]

Interesting that Government departments appear to be preparing for Government buildings to stay open, even if there is a substantial increase in staff having positive tests.  Infected members of staff will obviously stay at home, but there will be no temporary closures for a few hours to enabling full cleaning to take place.

 

From Monday, it is carry on as normal, quick touch point clean will be done and a full clean will be done after office has closed for the day. 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

37 minutes ago, hightail said:

It isn't the ones who get very ill who are the main problem surely.  It will spread mainly from those who are symptom free.  That's actually a bigger problem if it turns out that it is less virulent.  I guess we'll know in the next couple of weeks.

 

Perhaps consider that the earlier variants apparently spread more when 'symptomatic' aka people sweating coughing and sneezing

- and that is why temperature checks and masks and isolation would have been key to reducing the spread in the early stages.

Effective vaccines came along and reduced the incidences of severe illness in the infected and spread generally

 

The Omicron variant seems to have developed the capacity to spread through very minimal interaction, 2-3x as infectious it seems

- masks and hand cleaning still the most effective prevention of spread, although vaccination is still the best prevention of severe illness

 

That change/increase of infectiousness is the key point there.

If a mutation occurs during all that extra transmission generating 2-3 times increase in damage on top of that ....

 

Thats the big issue - transmission = mutation = dangerous new game

 

 

Theres something else very contradictory to what we had thought we knew about the virus - but i cant recall what it was at the moment

 

 

13 minutes ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Interesting that Government departments appear to be preparing for Government buildings to stay open, even if there is a substantial increase in staff having positive tests.  Infected members of staff will obviously stay at home, but there will be no temporary closures for a few hours to enablingf full cleaning to take place.

 

From Monday, it is carry on as normal, quick touch point clean will be done and a full clean will done after office has closed for the day. 

 

 

 

I wouldn;t put it past Johnson to order a lockdown and a general election

bet hes thinking about it

With police ramped up at polling stations everywhere but Tory strongholds with attempting voters arrested and held until after polling ends on 'breaching lockdown' rules

- hes already pussy footing around those sort of trumpesque actions with ministers over-ruling the courts etc

Edited December 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Was out locally for first time in a long time and there were work parties with no masks being worn by anyone.  Can see the number of positive cases massively increasing over next few weeks.

[hightail]

I'd imagine cases ramping up exactly as expected - probably even more so.  I think omicron is already far more prevalent than reported figures suggest.  Everything I've read says the booster shot is to prevent symptoms, that's very different to preventing infections.

 

We've had a period of continuing high infection rates but low incidence of severe disease.  That's exactly what we expected the vaccine to give us and it has done so.  To me it's been a spectacular success and the booster programme should ensure that continues even with omicron.

[tobyjugg2]

This (and some others reporting similar) is whats behind the changes in stance

 

Modelling the potential impact of Omicron in England | LSHTM

WWW.LSHTM.AC.UK

---

New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave...

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Anyone read analysis of Covid in Winter versus Summer ?

 

South Africa had Omicron detected during Summer when arguably the impact is less ?

 

During Winter, particularly in a cold damp climate like the UK, where respiratory health problems/challenges are greater, might have a different experience with Omicron ?

 

UK Government may have to implement lockdown for a few weeks early in 2022, if the signs are that hospitalizations are increasing. 

[tobyjugg2]

err -  have you looked at the prior waves?

 

Only thing I've seen is that they are vastly MORE infectious than other respiratory infections outside the 'more normal' cold/damp seasons for such things

.. just like they are getting more and more infectious in the 'more normal' damp season spread ...

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Lets look at a populist perspective, now they are going more 'off Johnson script'

 

Omicron Cases Are Now Being Treated In Hospital, Cabinet Minister Confirms

WWW.HUFFINGTONPOST.CO.UK

---

Former vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said there was now a race between the booster programme and the rapid spread of the new strain.

 

 

"Early data has suggested that while omicron may be more transmissible than previous variants, it could result in less severe illness.

However, Zahawi warned that even if that were the case, the high transmissibility rate of omicron could mean that tens of thousands of people will still end up in hospital."

 

"Zahawi said omicron — which has a doubling time of two to three days — was “so infectious that it will dominate and exponentially grow”.

“Let’s do a mathematic exercise for a second,” he said.

“You get to a million infections by say the end of December – 1% is 10,000 severe infections that could be in hospital.

“Three days later it is two million, three days later it is four million. Three days beyond that it is eight million."

 

“That is the risk, that even if it is milder, say 50% milder than Delta, then the numbers are huge – it is a small percentage of a very large population.”

Edited December 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

If Covid is seasonal being far worse in Winter and this continues to be the case,  should UK Government consider having  main Summer national holiday break in say June ?   Enabling hospitality businesses to make a good percentage of income, holding events using outdoor space available.

 

There will then be less pressure on Christmas being a critical revenue period and people also not seeing this as a main point in the year, when they get together with family/friends.

[honeybee13]

Do you think people are going to be prepared to abandon Christmas, UB? IMO part of the appeal is that it's something to look forward to when the days are getting shorter and the weather is cold.

[unclebulgaria67]

Christmas Day and Boxing day would still be national holidays.  But less pressure, due to extra holiday period in June.

 

I am advocating a longer national holiday break in June.  In 2022, We already have a bank holiday weekend in early June due to the Queens jubilee.  They have moved a BH to Thursday 2nd June and we have 3rd June off as well.  If they added Monday 6th June.

 

And if Covid continues to be a problem in 2023 etc, then keep a longer national holiday in June each year.

 

Call it the Queen Elizabeth holiday period.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

I think we are all making the mistake of trying to be logical, when the decisions will be far more politically driven

 

Johnson-ism is coming apart at the seams

 

* The real Tories are getting bolder,

 

the hard Brexiters are seeing Johnson

* cave in on NI (the Irish have no problems with best of both worlds),

* fishing (more licences have been issued to french fishermen)

* and johnson/Frosts BS demands over ECJ issues being dropped

.. mainly hidden behind the corruption and partygate  headline

 

* The ERG is seeing Johnson 'cave in' to not wanting the deaths of 10's thousands more laid at his door and enraged at seeing their businesses profits suffer - while they are safely far away from the front line - only the tax haven and rules and regs bonfire hopes keeping them in check - all of which are incompatible with close EU deals

 

A number of his whitewashers are bottling it and covering their own asses

 

 

The pandemic decisions will continue be politically driven.

Economic and medical facts/science simply selected to suite the political decision - and all loosing out on the altar of Johnsons incompetence.

[tobyjugg2]

2 Pfizer doses can’t fight Omicron, but booster helps

WWW.ISRAEL21C.ORG

---

Study from Israel’s Sheba Medical Center suggests booster helps prevent Covid-19 caused by Omicron variant but not as well as against Delta...

 

 

Pfizer COVID-19 booster protects against Omicron, study

WWW.THE-STAR.CO.KE

---

Israeli team said they worked with the actual virus

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

New rules are due next week according to report.

 

Covid: Vaccinated contacts in England told to take daily rapid tests

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The change will mean those in close contact with the Omicron variant no longer need to self-isolate.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

*** NEWS ALERT**  Prime Minister is to address the nation at 8pm this evening on Covid.

 

 

[honeybee13]

Oh dear. Fingers crossed.

[honeybee13]

Opinion of some on Twitter is that this is a party political broadcast in disguise.

[honeybee13]

So has Johnson overpromised again? Boosters for all by the end of the year - a million people a day and I'm not sure if that includes Christmas Day. It's not clear if the health system has ever managed that many in a day and I doubt if it's done that consistently.

 

Several doctors who have commented only found out what they're meant to be doing by watching the broadcast last night.