Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

11 hours ago, brassnecked said:

That app is deffo a disaster

 

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/14/nhs_contact_tracing_app/

 

I see they define one of the possible ways to force the use of the app on people

 

I was loath to list some, but as its started - another is that you can't go on public transport or a plane or public buildings without it.

eg you are self isolated and locked down, without any support or help - or you install the tracking app and might be allowed out and might get some benefits while you are locked down.

 

It wont help anything as its all based on self diagnosis whether accurate, honest. malicious ... or not - No actual testing, no actual diagnosis - just an excuse to track you and who you come within somewhere between 1 and 40 feet of

- real actual big brother stuff.

 

 

Imagine someone in your shopping queue at asda sending in a self diagnosis

- and while shopping in the store you passed them at 6 feet a few more times.

- along with 200 other people

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

Problem is all the Parties are control freaks drunk on the possibilities of control by tech.  Gates's Vaccination UUID chip is another one.

[tobyjugg2]

So lets start doing the timeline

 

Virus starts, very concerning to everyone else, but Johnson/Rasputin aren't worried at all and come up with:

 

* Infect the herd - theres plenty of them spare. Just tell them it'll all be fine.

 

* Tell the herd we will look after any 'at risk' ones while returning the possibly infected and send them out into the masses and send any old who get infected back into the care homes to ensure a steady flow of infected through the NHS

 

* Don't prepare, its an opportunity to get a load of NHS infected too (*special note: ensure this policy is maintained)

 

* Ensure testing is limited (*special note: ensure this policy is maintained)

 

 

[cjcregg]

21 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

I find some of the foreign newspapers much more interesting to read than UK newspapers.  They tend to have more of a focus on the actual subject matter and do not get distracted as much by Politics.  

 

 

 

Unlike most of the posts on this thread.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

anyone aware of any way the government ensured people returning to the UK were isolated and checked or anything other than - off you go into the population and isolate yourself if you get s severe cough and a temperature

 

or ensured older folk infected (or found to be infected) in hospital werent just sent back into care homes (see policy report higher in thread)

 

??

 

One example of the reporting:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

Edited May 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

The Sunday Times had an article about care homes in the Covid crisis yesterday. I'm posting a link that shows the start of the article but sadly it has a paywall at the moment. The first couple of paragraphs don't read well though

 

@anandMenon1 tweeted a bit more of it.

 

'The government was asleep at the wheel. We were sent a public health document on March 13, which said that if any of our residents got significantly ill, they wouldn't be allowed into hospital and would have to die in their home. We've never read anything like it.

 

Elderly people weren't a priority. The government's thinking was: care homes won't be affected. But if anything, the war on Covid is happening in care homes, not just the NHS. The government is boasting about how well it did in protecting the NHS, but the reality is deaths in care homes.

 

Ministers added care home deaths to the figures only two weeks ago. Until then I was screaming at people, saying the figures were rubbish. And we still haven't got a robust testing system. It's ridiculous.'

 

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thanks-to-nhs-managers-ive-now-got-two-care-homes-infected-with-covid-19-xk2n8f6nx

[brassnecked]

The government knew damned well they were sending Covid into the care homes, they wanted the hospitals empty to cope instead of sorting isolation facilities they turned the hospitals into wells of infection.

[tobyjugg2]

5 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

 

@anandMenon1 tweeted a bit more of it.

 

'The government was asleep at the wheel. We were sent a public health document on March 13, which said that if any of our residents got significantly ill, they wouldn't be allowed into hospital and would have to die in their home. We've never read anything like it.

 

 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/24/perfect-storm-care-homes-residents-refused-hospital-treatment/

 

 

 

“Admission and Care of Residents during COVID-19 Incident in a Care Home”:

 

 

"Negative tests are not required prior to transfers / admissions into the care home."

[honeybee13]

Anthony Costello from the independent Sage group and previously of the WHO, says the minutes of Sage's meetings should be made public.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/18/sage-advice-britain-coronavirus-science-government-policy

[tobyjugg2]

On 18/05/2020 at 08:12, tobyjugg2 said:

So lets start doing the timeline

 

Virus starts, very concerning to everyone else, but Johnson/Rasputin aren't worried at all and come up with:

 

* Infect the herd - theres plenty of them spare. Just tell them it'll all be fine.

 

* Tell the herd we will look after any 'at risk' ones while returning the possibly infected and send them out into the masses and send any old who get infected back into the care homes to ensure a steady flow of infected through the NHS

 

* Don't prepare, its an opportunity to get a load of NHS infected too (*special note: ensure this policy is maintained)

 

* Ensure testing is limited (*special note: ensure this policy is maintained)

 

 

 

 

So before we add more to the case, lets take a little time to look at protecting the nation as a whole rather than any specific areas ... apart from one I'll start this bit with

 

On 3 March:

 

the government released its coronavirus action plan - the document did not mention restricting visits to care homes.

 

Chief Medical Officer for England Prof Chris Whitty said on care homes: "One of the things we're keen to avoid is doing things too early, because if you do them early you get no benefit from the epidemic, but what you do get is a social cost."

 

and  Prof Whitty told a committee of MPs that as there were cases that could not be traced back to people who had come from abroad, it was "highly likely therefore that there is some level of community transmission in this virus in the UK now".

 

 

 

 

and through this period and beyond:

 

* Apparently in the order of 18,000,000 (Eighteen million) people came into the UK from abroad with just 273 out of the 18.1 million people who entered the UK in the three months prior to the coronavirus lockdown were formally quarantined

There appear to be no  reports of anyone even having their temperatures checked.

 

and

*At least 1,800 private aircraft landed in the UK during lockdown, official figures have shown, with no requirement for arriving passengers to provide contact details for purposes of tracking the spread of coronavirus, and seemingly no evidence of any actual health tests or checks carried out

 

Apparently all were just sent out in to the country via taxi, public transport or whatever arrangements they made for themselves.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/more-than-1800-private-planes-landed-in-uk-during-covid-19-lockdown

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52674073

Edited May 19, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

The ONS have reported 55,000 excess deaths up to early May. The FT's figure is at around 62,000.

 

 

[London1971]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

So before we add more to the case, lets take a little time to look at protecting the nation as a whole rather than any specific areas ... apart from one I'll start this bit with

 

On 3 March:

 

the government released its coronavirus action plan - the document did not mention restricting visits to care homes.

 

Chief Medical Officer for England Prof Chris Whitty said on care homes: "One of the things we're keen to avoid is doing things too early, because if you do them early you get no benefit from the epidemic, but what you do get is a social cost."

 

and  Prof Whitty told a committee of MPs that as there were cases that could not be traced back to people who had come from abroad, it was "highly likely therefore that there is some level of community transmission in this virus in the UK now".

 

 

 

 

and through this period and beyond:

 

* Apparently in the order of 18,000,000 (Eighteen million) people came into the UK from abroad with just 273 out of the 18.1 million people who entered the UK in the three months prior to the coronavirus lockdown were formally quarantined

There appear to be no  reports of anyone even having their temperatures checked.

 

and

*At least 1,800 private aircraft landed in the UK during lockdown, official figures have shown, with no requirement for arriving passengers to provide contact details for purposes of tracking the spread of coronavirus, and seemingly no evidence of any actual health tests or checks carried out

 

Apparently all were just sent out in to the country via taxi, public transport or whatever arrangements they made for themselves.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/more-than-1800-private-planes-landed-in-uk-during-covid-19-lockdown

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52674073

 

 

 

London is the worlds biggest Air transport hub with 100 million PAX plus per year going through 5 airports. I think there is a general (or wilful) lack of understanding what the implications would have been had a quarantine been announced back in January for some barely reported unknown disease far away in China.(as it was seen back then).  The same armchair epidemiologists offering their 'expertise' now , would have been up in arms as their holidays and business travel plans were destroyed. Plus temperature checks are about as useful as indicators on a submarine!

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, London1971 said:

 Plus temperature checks are about as useful as indicators on a submarine!

 

 

Really?

So you don't think that people entering the country with high temperatures, whether from coronavirus, ebola, influenza or whatever should be checked - and the risk of spreading 'whatever' into the population minimised?

 

 

 

[London1971]

I defer to the experts on this Profs, Virologists, Epidemiologists, CMO's etc. Plenty of them with blue ticks on Twitter, all who say Temp testing is a waste of time. Sure it's great to give a bit of re assurance, which is why most public think it's a good idea.

 

The reasoning behind it being a heap of steaming cr@p, there are tonne of reasons , my wife is on Meds that can elevate temp, Hayfever can elevate temp (hence the name) I'll guarantee you there is more hay fever in the general population than C19 at the moment. This means you tie up a tonne of time and resources with perfectly harmless people. Remember doctors don't grow on trees, and were talking about thousands of people per day.

 

Meanwhile Joe blogs, his family and wife all walk pass with no symptoms or temp, but incubating a nasty case of Coronavirus, only to fall ill and spread it to 50 people in Manchester next week.

 

That's why its pointless 50 times over.

[tobyjugg2]

so how many people going through the average boarding gate do you think are going to be running a 37.8+ temperature?

 

and apart from legitimate reasons some of which you state which could easily be pre-declared, why do you think they should be allowed on a plane without appropriate explanation?

 

... Particularly given the evidence from cruise ships and care homes.

 

 

Was it cjcregg who thought that only stopping 54% of people with symptoms with the temp technology available 17 years ago was some sort of waste of time failure?

Surely you don't agree with that ?

Edited May 19, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

The actuaries have published their weekly assessment of mortality rates. Their overall figure is very similar to the FT's

 

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/cmi-cautions-fall-excess-weekly-deaths-exaggerated-timing-ve-day

[cjcregg]

3 hours ago, London1971 said:

I defer to the experts on this Profs, Virologists, Epidemiologists, CMO's etc. Plenty of them with blue ticks on Twitter, all who say Temp testing is a waste of time. Sure it's great to give a bit of re assurance, which is why most public think it's a good idea.

 

 

That's why Heathrow are going to trial it, it's just a PR exercise that they believe will reassure enough dumb passengers to make it worth their while.

 

Heathrow will be using  the latest thermal scanner tech which by all accounts ''don't really work'' https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/11/thermal-scanners-are-latest-technology-being-deployed-detect-coronavirus-they-dont-really-work/

[tobyjugg2]

Nobody is disputing that there is nothing short of examining blood in detail that is close to 100% effective

 

that it won't catch covid carriers who are asymptomatic - nothing but a detailed blood examination will

 

and may flag people with other diseases or issues that cause high temperatures - a large proportion of whom may also be infectious ...

 

 

 

So, as all the lockdown process is to limit spread,

and self diagnosing and self isolation is to limit spread

A quite straightforward way to catch what is quite possibly a large portion of those infected with something that is likely to be contagious - is temperature scanners

 

 

 

If you bother to read your own links you will see they list the possible issues, which I acknowledge  - and which detracts little if any from the actual usefulness

Its an easy to implement PART of addressing the issue rather than 'herd immunity and to the devil with anyone who isn't' mentality.

 

 

Vaccine?

read this

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-trials-concerns-transmission-astrazeneca-latest-a9521241.html

 

Seems to be at least as much a problem as a solution

- Masks/reduces symptoms making asymptomatic transmission more likely - unless EVERYONE gets the inoculations

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

The actuaries have published their weekly assessment of mortality rates. Their overall figure is very similar to the FT's

 

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/cmi-cautions-fall-excess-weekly-deaths-exaggerated-timing-ve-day

 

 

the much higher figures are looking more and more 'the reality' rather than any gov released figures

 

[London1971]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

so how many people going through the average boarding gate do you think are going to be running a 37.8+ temperature?

 

and apart from legitimate reasons some of which you state which could easily be pre-declared, why do you think they should be allowed on a plane without appropriate explanation?

 

... Particularly given the evidence from cruise ships and care homes.

 

 

Was it cjcregg who thought that only stopping 54% of people with symptoms with the temp technology available 17 years ago was some sort of waste of time failure?

Surely you don't agree with that ?

 

Not a failure 17 years ago, that's how SARS 1 spread, that's why they got it under control. Symptomatic = infectious.

 

Covid 19 you would have been catching a few snowflakes in a Blizzard of seemingly healthy, pre symptomatic or asymptomatic but infectious people, who would stroll right past temperature screening without so much of a hair out of place. 

 

Factor in 120 million passengers per year coming from the widest choice of direct international destinations on the planet and you have the ingredients for one of the worlds worst outbreak.  I also might add that the timing of half term holidays and many thousands holidaying in Italy over that period, didn't help.  Nobody had a clue until it was too late, and Italy would have been the last place on the planet anyone would have introduced passenger checks for anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A 

[honeybee13]

This is damning from George Monbiot. 'We were second in the world for preparedness. Then Boris Johnson et al deliberately de-prepared us.'

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/uk-government-pandemic

 

[tobyjugg2]

9 minutes ago, London1971 said:

 

Factor in 120 million passengers per year coming from the widest choice of direct international destinations on the planet and you have the ingredients for one of the worlds worst outbreak. 

 

and still is and almost certainly will be again as autumn comes and passes

 

 

 

Quote

I also might add that the timing of half term holidays and many thousands holidaying in Italy over that period, didn't help.  Nobody had a clue until it was too late, and Italy would have been the last place on the planet anyone would have introduced passenger checks for anyway.

 

 

from that approach we we be 'too late' again next winter

 

 

 

 

So what is your and cjcreggs' suggestions to best manage this ongoing outbreak, which it seems will almost certainly resurge again in the coming winter?

 

... and any future outbreaks covid related or other?

 

 

 

I understand the limitations of temperature scans, but firmly believe it a good step forward. So whats your beliefs on a way to manage the situation better?

Edited May 19, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/london-care-homes-report-possible-fresh-covid-19-outbreaks

 

London care homes report possible fresh Covid-19 outbreaks

Residents also testing positive more than 30 days after showing first symptoms

[London1971]

1 minute ago, tobyjugg2 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/london-care-homes-report-possible-fresh-covid-19-outbreaks

 

London care homes report possible fresh Covid-19 outbreaks

Residents also testing positive more than 30 days after showing first symptoms

Yup it's like Noro Virus, can still shed Virus after 3 weeks, despite having recovered from symptoms. Nasty

 

On the other subject, commercial air travel is done, stick a fork in it.  The day that anybody feels comfortable cramming into a metal box for 3 hours with 150 other people is the day they have been given a dose of a proven Vaccine. Companies won't spend money on flying people to conferences, meetings etc either, when they can do the whole thing cheaper and safer on Zoom.

 

This means that Quarantines form abroad are way easier to manage. I believe Heathrow passenger numbers are down 97%.  Lets ignore the fact that the UK aviation sector employs 341,000 people, and the carnage that is going to be caused. Which brings me to the next subject, way too many are still in denial about the coming recession, it's going to be brutal.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

2 minutes ago, London1971 said:

 

Companies won't spend money on flying people to conferences, meetings etc either, when they can do the whole thing cheaper and safer on Zoom.

 

Its been that way for years. They still fly/travel to meetings.

I tried to start to change that many years ago where I was - failed.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Which brings me to the next subject, way too many are still in denial about the coming recession, it's going to be brutal.

 

 

Do agree with that.

 

 

but all that aside, there will still be people who fly (float, train or drive) in and out of countries - like those 182,000 private flights I mentioned

and one of the ONLY fast, automatic tests we can implement, not just at airports, but all major transport hubs and quite possibly more - is temperature checks.

(please someone come up with something else)

 

We need them in before the end of Autumn not just for Covid - but for the next one - which if its a pneumonic type or Covid mutated that way would have been 100's millions of deaths by now with how this has been mishandled.