Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

Well, the 50,000 figure is in line with the excess mortality figures from @ChrisGiles_ and the team at the FT have calculated, plus the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

[cjcregg]

15 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Well, the 50,000 figure is in line with the excess mortality figures from @ChrisGiles_ and the team at the FT have calculated, plus the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

 

Excess mortality is not a reliable measure of Covid deaths. Even if you think it is then why doesn't the piece use Vietnam's to compare it with?

[brassnecked]

Interesting entry today from Richard North, analysing the hows and whys of the virus and also the misconceptions even Doctors have about it and its control.  http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87598#disqus_thread

[honeybee13]

7 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

Excess mortality is not a reliable measure of Covid deaths. Even if you think it is then why doesn't the piece use Vietnam's to compare it with?

 

You're entitled to your opinion, of course. And I'm entitled to mine, so I'll put my trust in the FT and the IFoA until they're proved wrong.

[honeybee13]

In this article, the FT explain how they calculate their figures. I posted something from the IFoA the other day on this thread.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

[cjcregg]

27 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

 

You're entitled to your opinion, of course. And I'm entitled to mine, so I'll put my trust in the FT and the IFoA until they're proved wrong.

 

Opinion's fine (when it has at least some factual basis). Misinformation isn't.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

The point is .. everyone knows that Johnson and his shysters are lying (hasn't he always)

.. despite the Johnson cheerleaders

 

 

I mean - sending nurses who volunteered to go to the frontline despite being aware of the dangers and shortages of protective equipment

... sent back to communities WITHOUT being tested about defines the depths of Johnson and Hancocks shabbiness I think.

 

 

 

But don't worry ... they are looking after their mates no matter how many times those mates have shafted and cheated the British taxpayer

 

(Doctors, campaign groups, academics and MPs)

"said the health secretary, Matt Hancock, had “accelerated” the dismantling of state healthcare and that the duty to keep the public safe was being “outsourced” to the private sector.

In recent weeks, ministers have used special powers to bypass normal tendering and award a string of contracts to private companies and management consultants without open competition."

 

 

So back to who we REALLY need to protect our NHS from eh?

 

 

Even the Express knows ...

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1270303/Matt-Hancock-coronavirus-UK-news-testing-failure-lockdown-latest-update

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

so, temperature scanners

 

Lets take Tesco as an example.

 

They have apparently given the Coronavirus business rates to shareholders in dividends .. as they didn't need it given a 30% boost in sales

 

an example of it being reported:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/tesco-sales-surge-nearly-third-covid-19-panic-buying/

 

Now I wonder how many temperature scanners could have been installed in major stores for that?

 

I would argue that the stores that were allowed to stay open had their benefit in spades ...

and only those forced to close should get the business rates holiday.

 

If that rebate had been given to stores allowed to stay open with a requirement to install temperature scanners ....

 

 

I mean, how hard can it be to add temp scanners to the theft and facial recognition cameras/scanners at every door?

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Even small stores could have been given a hand held ...

 

or even a 'face in front of' portable scanner that could be quickly made in bulk by furloughed engineering companies

... and need a clear beep before allowed to enter

 

[tobyjugg2]

New figures from Office of National Statistics for England and Wales, alongside Scotland and Northern Ireland, shows death toll of 32,313

 

"Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed 29,648 deaths linked to coronavirus had taken place in England and Wales as of 24 April.

 

Including deaths for Scotland and Northern Ireland, the toll on this measure now amounts to 32,313.

 

According to the ONS report, of the deaths registered up to 24 April, 71.8 per cent (19,643 deaths) occurred in hospital. 5,890 deaths took place in care homes, 1,306 in private homes and 301 in hospices. This represents a fall of 12.6 per cent in hospital deaths, but an increase of 2,500 deaths in care home deaths compared to the week before."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-highest-europe-cases-covid-19-italy-spain-a9499181.html

 

 

 

IMO its worth looking at the contrast between the effectiveness of  NI's DUP driven UK type response and the RoI's, especially the border areas.

That also doesn't seem to cast the UK's 'response' in a good light.

 

The highest death toll in Europe - as sadly predicted.

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Ireland seem to be doing well, don't they? I've seen a couple of comparisons of the difference between the Republic and NI.

[tobyjugg2]

Well, it looks like Farage thinks the loc-down and restrictions - even on travel shouldn't apply to him, despite him "previously accused those flouting lockdown rules of “middle-class hypocrisy”."

 

Farage went further

 

“Yet when I went out at the weekend on Saturday I passed a local historical attraction, you couldn’t get in the carpark."

... Perhaps Should have got up a bit earlier to get a space Nigel

 

 

“I’ve never seen so many cyclists on the road in all my life."

“These aren’t short distance cyclists"

He'd clearly seen them over many miles while he was out and about ..

 

 

Never mind Nigel, you've been warned twice and broken the lockdown rules MANY times by your own admission

- more than most would get

 

I think an example should be made .. let alone the law upheld against repeat/consistant offenders

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

Opinion's fine (when it has at least some factual basis). Misinformation isn't.

 

 

 

and HB has given many very valid and relevant references

You are just offering JUST your opinion, which clearly you think is fine

- and it is as far as it goes

- but your flying in the face of evidenced opinion is of minuscule value against supported opinion and in your face evidence .. in my opinion.

 

 

 

So How should we be testing, or not and if not why not?

 

and How do you excuse the UK having the highest death rate in Europe, despite having more warning and thereby more time to prepare and more detail on what happened elsewhere?

 

The 'Sick man of Europe' award should show who was right and who is wrong ...

 

 

and why isn't Farage being fined?

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[snowdragon]

I take it TJ  you do not like  Boris?   who  else   do you think  should be in Government?

 

I follow no party  as at the end of the day they are all full of promises that no one  ever keeps,   I like   thousands  of others  have not seen my  family/grandchildren , for a long time,   I do not blame  the Government   for that but all the  selfish people   who insist on going out all the time,  the families   being caught  going to the seaside etc!

 

Yes   the Government  should have acted  sooner  but tbh I do not think anyone  could know  how  quick this  virus  was  going hit everyone,  my   granddaughter   who is 6 is totally  bewlidered   by the  fact  she has suddenly  be not allowed to go to school, see her friend, go out ( they do not even have a garden to play in )  yet if and when they go back to schhool  she will   more then likely  be in a new  class and new  year not knowing anyone 

 

I  just  hope   something is done and soon,  dread  to think what long term  effects  this is going have on the children  or anyone

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

4 minutes ago, snowdragon said:

I take it TJ  you do not like  Boris?   who  else   do you think  should be in Government?

 

 

Not a proven pathological self serving liar who has repeatedly demonstrated he cannot competently manage even quite small projects..

 

 

 

Some might argue they all lie .. but whether that is true or not, it beggars the question:

 

Who would you trust with your family if the choice was down to :

 

a) Someone who had told a white lie once or twice over a number of years when it was arguably necessary

 

b) Someone who repeatedly demonstrates they would lie through their teeth whenever they even thought it might be in their slightest interests

 

??

 

 

 

 

[cjcregg]

58 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

and HB has given many very valid and relevant references

You are just offering JUST your opinion, which clearly you think is fine

- and it is as far as it goes

- but your flying in the face of evidenced opinion is of minuscule value against supported opinion and in your face evidence .. in my opinion.

 

 

If I thought you were capable of honest and objective debate I'd answer you.

[tobyjugg2]

4 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

If I thought you were capable of honest and objective debate I'd answer you.

 

Why?

We clearly don't demand that of you, although it would be nice ...

 

Make a case ... if you have one

 

(fat chance)

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Seems Hancock won't answer even very basic questions either

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-contact-tracing-app-nhs-symptoms-uk-matt-hancock-a9499091.html

 

Whats the point of tracing if you aren't going to test to see if tracing needs to go a step further?

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

One of the few interviews where the hard questions were asked and pressed despite the avoidance we so commonly see, and who'd have thought who it would be ..

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[BazzaS]

1 hour ago, cjcregg said:

 

If I thought you were capable of honest and objective debate I'd answer you.

 

Improve your online life.

If anyone (so avoiding making this about any individual) repeatedly won’t engage in constructive debate: you can always block and move on .....

 

Equally, some posters (not thinking ‘cjcregg’!) may have me on mute, but that suits me too.......

[cjcregg]

18 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

 

 

If anyone (so avoiding making this about any individual) repeatedly won’t engage in constructive debate: you can always block and move on .....

 

 

 

I'm happy to listen to anyone but I'll choose who and what I respond to.

[BazzaS]

As is your right!

 

I find my blood pressure better from not seeing the posts likely to wind me up, though, than if I saw them and had to bite my (online) tongue.

To each their own!!

[hightail]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

and How do you excuse the UK having the highest death rate in Europe, despite having more warning and thereby more time to prepare and more detail on what happened elsewhere?

I honestly believe that extra warning and therefore extra data meant (and means) the government had decided it was worth the risk.  On paper I can understand their reasoning, doesn't mean I condone it so please don't shoot the messenger.  This virus is not indiscriminate in that the worst affected, those most likely to have a fatal outcome are well known to be certain identifiable groups and they just happen to be those who (in the main) contribute least and cost most. 

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

I honestly believe that extra warning and therefore extra data meant (and means) the government had decided it was worth the risk.  On paper I can understand their reasoning, doesn't mean I condone it so please don't shoot the messenger.  This virus is not indiscriminate in that the worst affected, those most likely to have a fatal outcome are well known to be certain identifiable groups and they just happen to be those who (in the main) contribute least and cost most. 

 

 

I agree.

I also think that Johnson and Gove et al think that old and already ill expensive 'statistics' dying is a 'price worth paying' and is still the real 'herd immunity' death of the weak/poor policy that they dare not declare.

 

The issue is the vast sums and lockdown spent in contradiction of that?

It seems inescapable that many (not all) of those 'in charge' are monsters, who only fear that if they display their monstrosity too openly, then even Tories will turn on them in droves.

 

The only other answer would seem to be a highly unlikely utterly monumental level of rampant incompetence, although Johnson does have significant form in that regard.

 

But given the failure to screen and test, and lack of plans which seem bloody obvious like testing nurses before they return to the communities, testing shop assistants

and no plans to test the people flagged in the phone app data grab ...

.. Monsters does seem to be the front runner.

 

[hightail]

Monsters - well yes in that it seems heartless to write off the old and infirm (forgive the terminology but I can’t see how else to put it).  In terms of the future and rebuilding an economy it may make some sense if you’re sat in a committee meeting thinking huge numbers rather than real people.  I’d like to think the response would have been different if this were something that disproportionately affected children which mercifully it doesn’t.