Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

and regarding HIT Herd Immunity Threshold

 

Heres Inde sage Kit Yates perspective, and see prior posts in this forum

 

"One consideration is the degree of immunity conferred. Vaccines, for example, are not 100% effective at stopping people from transmitting the virus. Immunity from natural infection is thought to be even worse. This means the HIT will be higher than suggested by the naïve calculation above.

Even if vaccination reduces the degree of onwards transmission by as much as 85%, this would increase the HIT to 98%. "

 

Last figures I saw were that vaccines reduce onwards transmission/spread by less than 75% *at best* with the newer variants,

although it does seem to reduce the instances of serious illness significantly (90%+)

 

Kit Yates: (How) can we reach herd immunity? - The BMJ

BLOGS.BMJ.COM

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The term “herd immunity” first found its way into the UK’s public consciousness very early on in the pandemic. The UK’s chief scientific...

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Post #3603 is concerning. More concerning for me is what Javid plans to do, given his preference for carrot over stick so far with the NHS.

[tobyjugg2]

#3603?

 

Your post is #3454 to me ?????

[honeybee13]

Oh, right. I'm not sure why the post numbers are different. I'm talking about the post above your last one that starts

 

Timely:

- the one place where its hard to cover up/ignore the issue - and the figures stated seem to tie up with ALL the generally reported stats - so the stats seem to be claiming no-one outside of the NHS is affected by this

[tobyjugg2]

thats #3452  for me HB

- surely they should be the same for all (is that the page glitch issue too)

 

Yes, the ONS stats referred seem to be the first time these issues are referred outside of some pubmed articles and the likes of inde sage - and there's as many on pubmed still saying theres no evidence of significant numbers of long covid  or even transmission - and from UK universities - which latter claim is blatant ********* - apart from the very obvious apparent smothering of the info

 

It needs to be addressed - NOT smothered and ignored.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Changing the subject a little, France has done a study of 22m people, half vaccinated and half not, and found that the vaccine protects by up to 90% from dying or being hospitalised.

 

French study of over 22m people finds vaccines cut severe Covid risk by 90% | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Largest study to date also finds vaccines appear to protect against worst effects of Delta variant

 

[tobyjugg2]

Thats the figure I've been seeing in other studies too HB

 

Around 90% protection from severe illness/death (and a slightly smaller but far less clear reduction in 'symptomatic infection).

probably actually nearer 95-97% protection from severe illness/death once those with known existing/other health issues are taken out - probably even higher for those fortunate enough to be in robust health  - who had a high level of resistance to severe illness anyway.

 

Transmission/Spread reduced broadly by between 40-65%, depending on the situation, variant, vaccines and peoples health

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

So I'll ask again - what's the solution?  Lord knows I'm no fan of Boris but he can only act within the bounds of what the population will accept.  I can't believe I'm actually defending the blithering idiot but it's obvious to me that people can't be controlled by fear any more and they have no appetite for further restrictions.

 

He can close the leisure and entertainment industries again I suppose but so far they don't appear to be the problem.  I have seen one headline trying hard to scaremonger with a figure of around 500 people +ve after a festival - that's out of a festival of 50,000 people.  Primary school in my village has one class with over 50% +ve. 

[honeybee13]

Well I'm no medic, HT, but what's wrong with measures such as masks and social distancing?

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, hightail said:

So I'll ask again - what's the solution?  Lord knows I'm no fan of Boris but he can only act within the bounds of what the population will accept.  I can't believe I'm actually defending the blithering idiot..

HB put it politely, I reached the end of my politeness. Apply some common sense.

 

Johnson can only act within the bounds ...

LOL

That is actually the most unrealistic and frankly idiotic things I've seen in a long while.

* When has outright lying ever even given him pause?

* When has rewriting history with complete twaddle ever been an issue  to him - aka the driver shortage causing chaos is part of his Brexit plan to increase wages - WHAT!

 

REMEMBER Johnscum:

Let the ****ing bodies pile high

Forget health and cancer responses - the important issue is that some people are making good money out of this

 

 

* What is in any way wrong with mask wearing in crowded environments, and where is ANY justification to remove it in the midst of a pandemic?

 

* Why are there STILL NOT temperature checks at crowded points like transport hubs? - potentially reducing spread of both COVID and FLU by 30%

 

* Why is the government still the main source of anti-vax sentiment and justification

 

Now HT - perhaps you explain to us:

* Why does common sense starting points have to be proven right again and again,

while complete bollocks has to be proven wrong again and again?

 

Have you even re-addressed your prior statements on questioning long covid after evidence has AGAIN be shown?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and while we wait for HT to maybe this time reassess ....

Although the point was valid ..  Something a bit more credible than the mail

 

Unvaccinated pregnant women made up nearly 20 percent of the most critically ill Covid-19 patients in England, according to data released by the country’s National Health Service. The N.H.S. is pleading with pregnant people to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Fears that the vaccine poses severe risks to the health of pregnant people are not borne out by the data. More than 100,000 vaccinations have been administered to pregnant people in England and Scotland, with “no subsequent harm to the fetus or infant,” according to N.H.S. data.     Covid-19 poses a significantly higher risk to women who are pregnant and outweighs the risks of vaccination, according to the C.D.C.   In the U.S., vaccination rates among pregnant individuals are far lower than in the rest of the population. As of Sept. 18, only 31 percent of pregnant women had received both shots before or during pregnancy.

-NYT

 

 

 

[hightail]

13 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Now HT - perhaps you explain to us:

* Why does common sense starting points have to be proven right again and again,

while complete bollocks has to be proven wrong again and again?

It's not me you have to convince.  I'm reacting to and asking about what I see in the real world, the risk people appear to accept. I was surprised at how quickly after freedom day London seemed completely normal.  The streets and tourist areas crowded and barely a mask to be seen.  Staff in shops and theatres tend to be masked but not the customers. This is how people are choosing to be. Getting nasty with me when I point this out and ask what should be done isn't a solution.

[honeybee13]

I hadn't understood that was what you were asking, HT. I suppose the only way to get people to take preventive measures is by law or local regulations.

 

The papers today are full of the select committees' report on how Covid was handled and it isn't flattering. I wonder if that's why the PM gave Parliament a week off and jetted off to Zac Goldsmith's villa near Marbella?

 

Covid response ‘one of UK’s worst ever public health failures’ | Health policy | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Early handling and belief in ‘herd immunity’ led to more deaths, Commons inquiry finds

 

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

It's not me you have to convince.  I'm reacting to and asking about what I see in the real world, the risk people appear to accept. I was surprised at how quickly after freedom day London seemed completely normal.  The streets and tourist areas crowded and barely a mask to be seen.  Staff in shops and theatres tend to be masked but not the customers. This is how people are choosing to be. Getting nasty with me when I point this out and ask what should be done isn't a solution.

 

I wasn't getting nasty i was simply being blunt with someone who keeps using populist horsecrap soundbites like they were real and simply going quite when the evidence is presented ... again.

 

So the restrictions were removed (freedom day as you and the populists dog whistle call it) despite continuing spread

- which maskless activity quickly cascaded with the 'why should I bother when they don't' effect

 

You think thats right or is anything approaching a 'freedom day' ?

I don't.

 

I now see a small minority of people wearing masks

You do recall that masks protect others most dont you?

How do you think - 'get your masks back on'; particularly after Johnson saying no more lockdowns no matter what'; will swing when as in all likelyhood another really bad wave of infections mingled with flu this winter?

The dog whistlers will be out in force, with pavlol laughing his socks off in his grave

 

 

What should be done? Why does the bloody obvious need to be restated again and again?

Particularly when its protecting and showing concern for each other rather than the self-serving utter selfishness promoted by ****** Johnson and his ilk.

 

Answer one question first

 

Do you think unvaccinated maskless anti-vaxxers should be allowed to:

* teach or supervise our (unvaccinated) children in enclosed poorly ventilated (or freezing cold with windows open - as HAS happened) classrooms,

* close contact tend to our old and vulnerable in car homes or hospitals with or without a mask

* masklessly monitor in close contact in a limited space 100's of us a day close up in 'self service' tills? 

* masklessly travel on packed trains

 

- and I'm not saying everyone should be vaccinated even though I believe they should be, only that they should NOT inflict the risks associated with their choices on others.

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Two articles from the BMJ linked below, by Martin McKee of Indie Sage. One is his analysis of the joint select committee report and the other has his thoughts on Exercise Alice that HMG has tried to avoid making public.

 

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/12/following-the-science-but-was-it-the-right-science-a-parliamentary-report-raises-serious-questions-about-the-uks-covid-19-response/

 

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/11/exercise-alice-the-uk-government-did-test-the-response-to-a-coronavirus-but-why-are-we-only-discovering-this-now/

 

[tobyjugg2]

Easy read format of the commons select committees findings, and I've added the "veil of ignorance" quote to Johnsons 'honours' in my sig

 

Ministers’ initial response to the Covid pandemic was one of the

“most important public health failures the UK has ever experienced”

and resulted in thousands of deaths, a damning new cross-party report has concluded.

 

"those in power were operating through a “veil of ignorance” that was “partly self-inflicted”, with ministers and scientific advisers unwilling to learn from the experiences and tactics of other countries, notably in east Asia."

- those Asian reports I referred and linked here

 

"(not) NHS Test and Trace was established in May 2020, but its “chaotic” performance throughout the year “hampered” the UK’s response to Covid-19, culminating in the imposition of two more lockdowns."

- Note: not just useless waste of astronomical amounts of taxpayer money - actually hampered

 

 

 

Government’s early Covid response ‘amounted in practice’ to herd immunity, MPs say

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

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Inquiry led by two House of Commons select committees condemns government for catalogue of delayed decisions and errors that resulted in...

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

A damning report on Britain’s virus response

Britain’s initial response to the Covid-19 pandemic “ranks as one of the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced,” a parliamentary inquiry led by lawmakers from Boris Johnson’s own Conservative Party reported yesterday.

The highly critical report blamed the government for “many thousands of deaths which could have been avoided,” as well as for its failure to carry out widespread testing or swiftly impose restrictions early in the pandemic, as the country pursued wider “herd immunity.”

Britain has experienced one of the worst Covid-19 outbreaks among wealthy nations, with 162,000 deaths officially attributed to the disease. Since last winter, the country has become one of the world leaders in vaccinations, though infections remain high amid few restrictions on the public.

Background: A large faction of Conservative lawmakers consistently opposed pandemic restrictions. The government’s decision not to order a lockdown or conduct contact tracing was a result in part of officials’ belief that the British public would not accept such restrictions — a view that turned out to be false.

Here are the latest updates and maps of the pandemic.

In other developments:

Viral evolution is a long game. Here’s where scientists think we could be headed. F.D.A. regulators released a review that found a half-dose booster shot of a Moderna vaccine at least six months after the second dose increased antibody levels significantly. -NYT   This especially well worth a click and peruse: Viral evolution is a long game. Here’s where scientists think we could be headed.

[tobyjugg2]

Well @hightail, are you going to engage and answer the quite straightforward questions?

You have asked enough and received the courtesy of responses .. I had you as better than Conniff

 

While we wait:

 

Developments on booster shots

People who received a Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine might be better off with a booster shot from Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, a new study found.

Those who received the single-dose vaccine by Johnson & Johnson followed by a Moderna booster shot saw their antibody levels rise 76-fold within 15 days, while those who received another dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine saw only a fourfold rise in the same period. And a Pfizer booster shot raised antibody levels 35-fold in Johnson & Johnson recipients.   -NYT

[honeybee13]

Changing the subject a little, Jeremy Hunt has commented on Javid's plan to force GPs to see more patients face to face. He's outlined the problems and mentioned his own experience. Labour say the plan is unravelling already.

 

I said the other day that Javid likes to us stick more than carrot.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Trouble is the funds will be tied to some specifics .. which will likely mean all sorts of issues actually getting the money .. unless you have a pal who can refer you to a VIP lane I suppose.

[BazzaS]

Pretty rich to insist @hightail answer questions, when TJ dodges questions (such as when asked about PPV and NPV, or asked what anatomical site the snake oil seaweed extracts act at, and/or how they get there …..)

 

‘Pot, kettle and black’ springs to mind!

[tobyjugg2]

and a little reminder that infections, hospitalisation and deaths are on the increase

 

Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK

CORONAVIRUS.DATA.GOV.UK

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Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.

 

 

[honeybee13]

This article is interesting on Javid vs GPs. I wonder how much he actually knows about running a GP practice.

 

I'm not sure what it's going to be replaced by but is it a good idea to scrap distancing - in a GP surgery where there's more chance of people being ill? I wouldn't want to go there.

 

GPs have become the new fall guys for government failures | Gaby Hinsliff | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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The Tory press are on the warpath, followed by Sajid Javid. Clapping for carers feels a long time ago, says the Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff

 

[honeybee13]

...and an article from Full Fact checking inconsistencies in a Daily Mail article having a go at GPs.

 

Daily Mail report on GPs seeing fewer patients on Fridays needs more context - Full Fact

FULLFACT.ORG

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There are some important caveats to figures showing GP appointments drop off later in the week.

 

[tobyjugg2]

I have mixed feelings about this HB

 

Some GP's practices certainly need a kick up the jacksie .. rather than a carrot - we have one locally

Some GP practices really need more funding and more doctors rather than any kicking - we have a couple of those locally

 

BUT - I have no doubts whatsoever that the populists, even the more remnant Toryish ones like Javid, wont do anything that addresses the real problems for the bucketloads of taxpayer money they will squander .. unaccountably.