Mutating Corona Virus

[London1971]

If this pandemic was a 90 minute football match, we'd be 5 minutes in. That's why there is zero point in comparing us with other countries, who did best, or worst or whatever.  The time for that is in 18 months when the dust has settled (hopefully).  I don't like Boris, or the Tories but I am starting to like people even less who are trying to score petty party political points from this.pandemic. To suggest that Corbyn, Swinson, or anybody else would have somehow done better is a stretch.

 

Personally I think the response was misguided at first but lessons are being learnt, considering it's a once in a century global crisis that sprang from nowhere. 

 

1. Massive support package to bail out the economy

2 .NHS not overwhelmed,not even close

3 Food Supply Chains holding up well (despite initial problems)

4.Power networks holding up well

5.Rubbish and Recycling Collections holding up well

6 Testing increasing massively (important for future control)

7 Far better than expected lockdown compliance

8 Number of Covid patients in hospital falling.

 

The above shows that things are OK, in my opinion, and the government are actually doing a surprisingly good job. 

 

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

Now they realise its a SARS mind you for a scathing critique and a look at where mistakes have been made and compounded have a look at this blog, mind you given what was in place, and the advisors and experts available, none of the Parties would have fared any better. 

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87594#disqus_thread

[cjcregg]

2 hours ago, London1971 said:

If this pandemic was a 90 minute football match, we'd be 5 minutes in. That's why there is zero point in comparing us with other countries, who did best, or worst or whatever.  The time for that is in 18 months when the dust has settled (hopefully).  I don't like Boris, or the Tories but I am starting to like people even less who are trying to score petty party political points from this.pandemic. To suggest that Corbyn, Swinson, or anybody else would have somehow done better is a stretch.

 

Personally I think the response was misguided at first but lessons are being learnt, considering it's a once in a century global crisis that sprang from nowhere. 

 

1. Massive support package to bail out the economy

2 .NHS not overwhelmed,not even close

3 Food Supply Chains holding up well (despite initial problems)

4.Power networks holding up well

5.Rubbish and Recycling Collections holding up well

6 Testing increasing massively (important for future control)

7 Far better than expected lockdown compliance

8 Number of Covid patients in hospital falling.

 

The above shows that things are OK, in my opinion, and the government are actually doing a surprisingly good job. 

 

 

 

 

 

I totally agree with this and it's refreshing to see amongst the petty self-righteous and virtuous postings of those who have nothing better to do than find an enemy to blame and complain about what they think the Government did wrong.

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, London1971 said:

If this pandemic was a 90 minute football match, we'd be 5 minutes in. 

 

To suggest that Corbyn, Swinson, or anybody else would have somehow done better is a stretch.

 

Personally I think the response was misguided

 

 

Largely agree with those

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, London1971 said:

considering it's a once in a century global crisis that sprang from nowhere. 

 

2 .NHS not overwhelmed,not even close

 

 

 

You need to review your reasoning on those at the very least.

[45002]

With this Covid 19 i was thinking it just another bank Holiday this  Monday 4th May 2020, but it isn't this year.

 

It's Friday 8th May is a Bank Holiday in whole of the UK this year due to VE day...

 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by 45002

[honeybee13]

Here are two interesting articles on coming out of lockdown in Ireland and the US.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/ireland-extends-covid-19-lockdown-to-18-may-before-phased-exit

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/03/donald-trump-reopen-us-economy-lethal-robert-reich

[honeybee13]

Somebody pointed me towards this article from the Institute of Actuaries. They've done their own figures which don't necessarily agree with the government's ones.

 

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/cmi-assesses-impact-covid-19-total-uk-deaths

[brassnecked]

Its hard to calculate actual figures as they keep changing the parameters used.

[honeybee13]

Do you mean the government? My understanding is that they're declaring figures for hospital deaths where people have tested positive. I'm not sure about fatalities in care homes.

 

IMO the excess mortality rate is a reasonable guide as a comparison. Mortality rates are one of the main things actuaries do, so they should know what they're talking about.

[cjcregg]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Do you mean the government? My understanding is that they're declaring figures for hospital deaths where people have tested positive. I'm not sure about fatalities in care homes.

 

IMO the excess mortality rate is a reasonable guide as a comparison. Mortality rates are one of the main things actuaries do, so they should know what they're talking about.

 

The problem with using the excess mortality rate as a guide is that the virus and its social consequences have necessarily skewed the normal mortality rate.

 

For example the lockdown means that there will be far fewer road deaths, work accident deaths will have reduced and social distancing will have reduced the rate of flu transmission and therefore deaths from pneumonia arising from it. On the other side of the coin there will probably be more deaths caused by operations being cancelled and people being less likely to go to their GPs and A&E for all sorts of things.

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

well. with the real number of covid deaths looking more and more like its really past 40,000 and the testing seemingly dropped to a REAL max of around 80,000 (a third the minimum we should be at by now

and nothing more than guesswork at the number of people who have been infected and no sign of temperature scanners which seem to me an essential part of the solution ...

 

... not sure what Johnsons way forward is

 

anybody?

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

While we wait for someone to come up with something (other than herd immunity survival of the fittest) showing a plan from Johnson,

 

 

Regarding allowing these shysters (the Tory government and their private business pals) access to your movements etc ...

 

Coronavirus: Plan to use private firm at centre of outsourcing scandal to run contact tracing

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-tests-contact-tracing-serco-g4s-private-firm-a9497371.html

 

"A plan to use a private firm at the centre of an outsourcing scandal to help run the ‘test-and-trace’ system crucial to curbing Covid-19 has drawn criticism.

Labour hit out at ministers after it emerged that Serco – and probably other giant contractors such as G4S – will carry out most of the contact tracing work, by recruiting 15,000 call centre staff."

 

"Last year, the outsourcing giant was fined £19.2m by the Serious Fraud Office as part of a settlement over an electronic tagging scandal, also paying £3.7m in costs.

 

Both Serco and G4S were accused of charging the government for electronically monitoring people who were either dead, in jail, or had left the country."

 

 

"Mr Hancock has been accused of a “missed opportunity” by failing to sign up around 5,000 local council environmental health workers – and thousands more in the private sector, now furloughed in the shutdown. (who) have years of tracing the victims of salmonella, Legionnaires’ disease and even norovirus, but Public Health England made no effort to deploy them earlier in the crisis."

 

Not surprising given

Google executive took part in Sage meeting, tech firm confirms

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/google-executive-took-part-in-sage-meeting-coronavirus-tech-firm-confirms

 

"Demis Hassabis, a co–founder of Google’s artificial intelligence division, DeepMind, attended a meeting of the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) on 18 March, when the group was considering whether the UK should go into lockdown."

 

"While Hassabis is considered a world-leading AI researcher, the presence on Sage of an executive from a Silicon Valley company that has been exploring ways to profit from using big data in the health industry is likely to deepen controversy about the group."

 

"DeepMind previously processed millions of healthcare records from an NHS hospital trust as part of a scheme to design a diagnostic app, in an arrangement subsequently found to have contravened data protection law. DeepMind’s health unit was transferred to the parent company’s health division last year.

 

 

 

Wonder whether it was his expertise or his willingness to ignore data protection requirements, which NHS (or environmental health) professionals - were they actually running it - certainly wouldn't ignore...

... or both perhaps + future private profit from the data ...

 

 

Be darned if I'm having that app installed on my phone.

 

 

 

anyway - so the plan so far seems to be:

This is an automated message, do not reply:

You've been within 10 feet or so of a person who has corona-virus, or somebody whos been near somebody who has corona-virus.

We aren't going to test you - just self isolate for 14 days, and don't forget to sort something out for yourself to get food without going out ...

because If you do go out, even without your phone we're watching you ...

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I'm really not sure about the app. I did see a headline that it might not be legal earlier today.

 

Test and trace has to be one of the ways to control this. As you and a number of experts say, the local infrastructure is already there and they could use some of the 750,000 people who volunteered for the NHS to do some tasks. At the Independent SAGE meeting today, one lady said the government seem to want to centralise it and privatise it. I didn't hear anyone say they thought it was a good idea.

 

Why reinvent the wheel when they have qualified and trained people who could start doing this now? I daren't think what they could spend with Serco.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

on another disturbing note

 

A number of NHS staff who volunteered to go help the regional covid wards in the main hospitals are returning to smaller hospitals

 

.. of the three I've spoken with so far, not one has been tested before returning to their smaller hospitals.

 

Hope thats not typical ...

 

 

[honeybee13]

That's about as clever as sending people back to unprotected care homes when they were infected, TJ.

 

This is a good article on testing and tracing and probably shows why a call centre isn't going to cut it.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/100000-tests-results-coronavirus-self-isolation

 

 

[cjcregg]

19 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I'm really not sure about the app. I did see a headline that it might not be legal earlier today.

 

Test and trace has to be one of the ways to control this. As you and a number of experts say, the local infrastructure is already there and they could use some of the 750,000 people who volunteered for the NHS to do some tasks. At the Independent SAGE meeting today, one lady said the government seem to want to centralise it and privatise it. I didn't hear anyone say they thought it was a good idea.

 

Why reinvent the wheel when they have qualified and trained people who could start doing this now? I daren't think what they could spend with Serco.

 

 

 

Not sure what you mean here. You're proposing using volunteers but then saying there are qualified and trained people who could do it. Who are they?

[honeybee13]

I've seen suggestions of using environmental and public health people with councils and they say that volunteers could be trained up in some aspects of keeping in touch once a qualified person has done the initial assessing.

[cjcregg]

I'm not sure that there's any accessing to do, it's mainly telephone work after someone has tested positive. So experienced telephonists would be the best bet I reckon.

[tobyjugg2]

32 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

That's about as clever as sending people back to unprotected care homes when they were infected, TJ.

 

This is a good article on testing and tracing and probably shows why a call centre isn't going to cut it.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/100000-tests-results-coronavirus-self-isolation

 

 

 

Too true

 

The thing with testing is there are two aspects

* Do you have it

* Have you had it and have a reasonable expectation of immunity for x period

 

 

Look at the testing numbers, they are struggling to hit 80,000 a day in the real world

 

Even lumping the two tests together - Thats a thousand days - 3 years to test everyone with just a few dupes - far less dupes than is likely to be necessary.

 

Overly simplistic, but decidedly relevant as that is

 

We will still be testing for covid-19 when we are on covid-22

 

 

The simple fact that we seem to be:

* Allowing people into the country from hotspots without a test

* Sending people from hotspots (wards) back to hospitals and care homes without being tested

* Allowing people to shop together without even using temperature checks

* Thinking about lifting chunks of the lockdown without even adequate basic scanning and testing ... (don't think they will - a second wave would (hopefully) bring the government down - despite their lies)

 

 

 

Seems to me to make tracing a 100x harder than it needs to be - an almost impossible task (even without the privacy issues)  and attempting to shut the stable door after 8 of the 10 horses have literally bolted down the road past the gatekeeper as he stood there watching

 

The only 'plan' that fits what we are seeing is 'herd immunity' and those that aren't die

and is only planning for next winter/nect epidemic in hoping that there is some lasting immunity from the 'herd' plan - theres little evidence that would be the case.

 

[cjcregg]

16 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

We will still be testing for covid-19 when we are on covid-22

 

 

Groan.

 

It's called Covid - 19 because it first appeared in 2019, not because it was the 19th Covid version.

[brassnecked]

The guy with his "Independent SAGE" group was the chief scientific advisor to the UK Government – the post currently occupied by Patrick Vallance. Concurrently holding the post of head of the government office for science, from October 2000 to 31 December 2007, under Tony Blair

from todays http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87597#disqus_thread

[tobyjugg2]

49 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

Groan.

 

It's called Covid - 19 because it first appeared in 2019, not because it was the 19th Covid version.

 

Duhhh

 

and I said covid 22 because we would still be testing for the current one in 2022

 

.. despite newer versions

Edited May 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-test-antibody-uk-covid-19-matt-hancock-roche-a9498601.html

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/roche-coronavirus-antibody-test-fda-approval/

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roche-investment-germany/armed-with-roche-antibody-test-germany-faces-immunity-passport-dilemma-idUSKBN22G122

 

https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2020-04-17.htm

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/roche-aims-to-start-selling-covid-19-antibody-test-in-early-may

[honeybee13]

This article is comparing the experiences of Vietnam, 0 deaths from Covid and the UK with an estimated 50,000 according to them. Vietnam seems to have learned from its experience with SARS.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/vietnam-another-lesson-in-how-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

[cjcregg]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

This article is comparing the experiences of Vietnam, 0 deaths from Covid and the UK with an estimated 50,000 according to them. Vietnam seems to have learned from its experience with SARS.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/vietnam-another-lesson-in-how-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

So they're using the official death stats for Vietnam and comparing them with what appears to be their own 'estimate' of the UK's, the provenance of which is not disclosed. So hardly scientific.

 

As some kind of moderator you should try reading some news that doesn't suit your agenda and make a bit more of an effort to discourage misinformation rather than promote it.