Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

HB

I think any concept that

"Johnson must return to good health so that he, alongside his advisers and political colleagues, can face the music in the inevitable inquiry that must follow

– assuming it is not to be a whitewash like Chilcot, and the many others before it."

 

detracts from any reality that may otherwise be in an article containing even a smidgeon of an idea/hope that any investigation will NOT be a whitewash and attempt to point the finger at anyone else following in Trumps footsteps.

 

 

 

I also think that whether the UK's (Johnson et al) response to the epidemic is simply wrong, or actually catastrophic, will be clarified in the next few weeks

- unquestionably if despite the lockdown and 'hostile environment' the UK passes Spain and Italy as the sick man of Europe.

 

 

bet Johnson is kicking himself for that 'hostile environment' policy now - it makes it harder to rabble rouse with lies that its EU migrants.

... not that it will stop the nationalist **** from bleating that.

 

I think the conspiracy theories are bonkers.

[brassnecked]

Whatever the politics,and whitewash, the issue of the response and implications that it was ill founded cannot be denied, they used a plan designed for a different virus.

[tobyjugg2]

On 03/03/2020 at 08:56, tobyjugg2 said:

Latest update

 

"Britain is not planning to cancel mass gatherings or large sports events over the concerns about coronavirus"

the health minister, Matt Hancock, has said

 

 

schools as well should not be closing unless there is a positive case and the schools have the advice to close," Mr Hancock told BBC Breakfast.

 

 

 

such a short time ago

[tobyjugg2]

9 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

Whatever the politics,and whitewash, the issue of the response and implications that it was ill founded cannot be denied, they used a plan designed for a different virus.

 

IMO Johnson used a plan unsuitable for either SARS or Infuenza or anything with confirmed serious/fatal effects.

 

[tobyjugg2]

and despite it not being something you should wish on anyone,

 

with Johnson and Trump and others in power self serving, sociopathic, lying, self aggrandizing temperaments, the world perhaps desperately needs them both, and certain others (Putin for example)  to get severe symptoms

 

- provided it doesn't grant them immunity as they would undoubtedly be completely insufferable and neglectful on the issue then.

 

Perhaps the only way it will get addressed in a competent manner - a number of those at the heights of power suffering from it.

 

 

[cjcregg]

1 hour ago, brassnecked said:

Either way its a mess in UK and EU.

 

To be fair there wasn't too many countries where it wasn't a 'mess', just look at what happened in US, Russia and indeed China.

 

For the leaders of any nation this was always going to be impossible to manage without making mistakes along the way. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

35 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

To be fair there wasn't too many countries where it wasn't a 'mess', just look at what happened in US, Russia and indeed China.

 

For the leaders of any nation this was always going to be impossible to manage without making mistakes along the way. 

 

35 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

Yes and no. People keep mentioning the exercise that was carried out in 2016 of how to cope with a respiratory virus and from what I'm reading, plan didn't result from that. The UK has been following an influenza plan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

It appears that yes the UK has been following an influenza plan, the 2016 trial failed, and nothing was altered from what was down in the plan to account for something other than a form of flu.

here is a sort of potted history of the plan, and its apparent that it would have been followed irrespective of Party in office.  What is good about Dr Noth's blog, is he references sources, and links to them allowing anyone to check and also form their own conclusion.

 

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87568#disqus_thread

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, cjcregg said:

 

To be fair there wasn't too many countries where it wasn't a 'mess', just look at what happened in US, Russia and indeed China.

 

For the leaders of any nation this was always going to be impossible to manage without making mistakes along the way. 

 

 

 

Now that as stated I do agree with,

but the wrong approach and failure to react quickly and competently and change approach, let alone not implementing relatively quick easy and cheap safeguards seem to me to be negligent/incompetent in the extreme.

Particularly in such an economically and technically developed nation as ours.

 

Rapidly implementing the checking of temperatures at entrances to airports, hospitals and supermarkets for example.

 

India and Russia and the camps in Syria and Turkey ....

Lets hope they don't turn into the horrors some are predicting.

 

[cjcregg]

14 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

It appears that yes the UK has been following an influenza plan, the 2016 trial failed, and nothing was altered from what was down in the plan to account for something other than a form of flu.

here is a sort of potted history of the plan, and its apparent that it would have been followed irrespective of Party in office.  

 

That's kind of my point really. 

[cjcregg]

9 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

 

 

Rapidly implementing the checking of temperatures at entrances to airports, hospitals and supermarkets for example.

 

 

 

Why? Who would be doing the checking? What would happen if someone was found to have a higher than normal temperature? 

 

The incubation period from infection to symptoms is an average of 5 days, so that's about, let's see.... 5 days too late to bolt the stable door by my reckoning.

 

Besides if you've got a temperature you probably know it anyway. 

[London1971]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

with Johnson and Trump

 

 

 

The way Trump and Johnson have dealt with this is night and day. It's the wrong comparison!

 

Go on to some American Web Sites, study some of the Trump daily briefings.  I'm not saying that we weren't lacking or got some things wrong, but if you really want to look at who is standing apart from the crowd, it's the USA, Sweden and Holland.  In my opinion those are the 3 developed countries that are making a pig's ear of this.

 

Sweden by the way has done close to zero despite having proportionally the same number of cases and deaths as the UK, and their government is coming under a lot of pressure to issue a lock down.

[tobyjugg2]

Ah, quickly back to complete b******* I see @cjcregg

 

No point doing anything whatsoever other than dying, getting ill and/or Not as nature intends then eh?

and if it spreads ... it spreads - survival of the already resistant?

Johnson doesn't seem to be following that advise now does he?

 

Same with every illness i suppose in your mind then unless there is an easy 100% test and a 100% cure

If not, why not?

and even then - so what - its 5 days too late.

 

 

Read what you've written again ...

 

 

Of course we should be checking for people with temperatures, and at the very least they should be told to go home and FULLY self isolate whether customer Nurse or shop assistant or arrival from foreign parts

 

 

11 minutes ago, London1971 said:

 

The way Trump and Johnson have dealt with this is night and day. It's the wrong comparison!

 

 

 

My point was that if the leader of Sweden fell ill, sadly it would be unlikely to have the impact, if Trump falls ill - efforts would likely be vastly accelerated.

If Putin falls ill, then there might be greater effort in Russia

 

The rhetoric certainly seems to have changed since Johnson fell ill.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[cjcregg]

7 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

Of course we should be checking for people with temperatures, and at the very least they should be told to go home and FULLY self isolate whether customer Nurse or shop assistant.

 

 

So hardly a game changer then.

 

We're already doing what we should be doing ie locking down and self isolating. 

[honeybee13]

6 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

So hardly a game changer then.

 

We're already doing what we should be doing ie locking down and self isolating. 

 

Apart from the people who are reportedly arriving at their holiday homes in the West Country and possibly other places and could be taking the virus with them.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/07/second-home-owners-accused-sneaking-cover-darkness-coronavirus/

[tobyjugg2]

6 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

So hardly a game changer then.

 

We're already doing what we should be doing ie locking down and self isolating. 

 

 

A massive game changer, and relatively straight forward to implement wholesale.

 

While you allowing people who 'probably know they are ill'  into places where hundreds could be affected must be the absolute pits even in an entirely ridiculous stance.

So thats fine then for them to mingle as long as they already know they have a temperature?

 

.. Let alone all the people who don't actually realise.

 

Nurses are not being tested

Shop assistants are not being tested

and those screen the shop assistants have will be a help. but temperature checks would be a bigger one.

Edited April 8, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[cjcregg]

Aside from airport screening when there were actually international flights to get on I don't know of anywhere where they're conducting temperature screening domestically. If it was such a game changer then you'd think it would be going on everywhere.

 

It could be because it's ineffective:

 

''Under generally conservative assumptions on sensitivity, we find that 46 of 100 infected travellers will enter undetected.....For example, when entry screening was implemented in Australia in response to the 2003 SARS outbreak, 1.84 million people were screened, 794 were quarantined, and no cases were confirmed''

 

https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080

[tobyjugg2]

28 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

''Under generally conservative assumptions on sensitivity, we find that 46 of 100 infected travellers will enter undetected.....For example, when entry screening was implemented in Australia in response to the 2003 SARS outbreak

 

 

then 54 (more than half) wont

 

and technology has moved on a bit in 17 years ... so we should be able to get more quicker, easier, cheaper and more accurately

 

Perhaps you'll believe it if you read it

HERE

Edited April 8, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[cjcregg]

7 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

then 54 (more than half) wont

 

and technology has moved on a bit in 17 years ... so we should be able to get more quicker, easier, cheaper and more accurately

 

Perhaps you'll believe it if you read it

HERE

 

No thanks.

[honeybee13]

Here's an article on how the author thinks UK modelling was inaccurate.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-one-the-politicised-science-that-nudged-the-johnson-government-to-safeguard-the-economy-over-british-lives/

[unclebulgaria67]

I think this lock down will continue until at least the end of April, given the number of people with the condition is too high to stop the social distancing measures.  

 

And the testing of 100,000 per day, does not appear to be achievable. 

 

And I am not sure we know enough about the virus.  It is worrying that over 50 people in South Korea who had already tested as having the virus, were infected again.  Or the virus never cleared from their systems.

 

How many people in the UK and elsewhere are going to the shops, working etc, when they have the virus, but are not showing any symptoms ?

 

 

[honeybee13]

I think the lockdown will go on at least until the end of April. France is just under a week ahead of you and Macron is making another announcement tomorrow evening. People are expecting two weeks or longer after the end of the current lockdown on 15th April.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUp1e-hrzYA

 

 

 

It aint rocket science, and if the Virus is more like flu/the common cold and re-infections occur, as seems possible according to latest reports, or for the next variant outbreak

- this sort of thing may become vital and as normal as facial recognition ...

Edited April 9, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

A flu planto tackle a SARS, so we are where we are.

[honeybee13]

From Richard Horton of the Lancet on Twitter earlier.

 

richard horton @richardhorton1

1h

 

It’s wrong to say we don’t have an exit strategy from lockdown. We do. What is missing are the plans for its implementation: surveillance, early detection, isolation, contact tracing, monitoring CFR, social mixing, and real time estimates of Ro. These questions should be asked.