Should we trust Sunak or the next PM to fix the Country's problems? (title revised 24/10/22)

[tobyjugg2]

Been saying parity with the dolar was a consequence of the Brexiters brexit since before the referendum

given the £ v $ tested $1.03 last night - I think it may have been an understatement.

 

 

I know its quite usual for Tories to rip the plebs off half way through an election cycle, but i think this is more than that.

They are quite literally scraping the dregs out of a bankrupted economy, and I think Truss expects to lose the next election, and the Brexiters are happy with that as they will then immediately start blaming Labour for the issues they have blatantly and wantonly caused.

 

[honeybee13]

The markets are underwhelmed by the 'fiscal event'. Kwarteng and Truss should be worried.

 

And I don't think it's going to take very long for members of the public to spot that the tax reductions only apply to the very rich.

[tobyjugg2]

Actually HB, I think its more appropriate to say that the markets were quite shaken by Truss and Kwazis fiscal event

 

... and lets not forget it seems the UK Con crony traders who were briefed ahead of it all by Kwazi seem to have shorted the GBP (again) on the run up to it making fortunes on the pounds collapse.

(arguably Governmental Insider trading with cronys? - which will also have shaken the markets,

although Kwasi would claim its normal to brief 'markets - but they went on a short the pound rampage apparently - again - just like redwood allegedly did)

 

Given the Populist 'Torys have delivered squat on their Brexishit assurances, and have trashed the UK's markets and its econony. all thats left for them is rob the taxpayer to enrich their pals to ensure nice consultancy income from them when they get kicked out.

 

The BoE is in a difficult position now. What it needs to do is raise interest rates quite sharply, which will almost certainly hit all the folk who aren't on fixed mortgages, and all those who have hit the plastic just to pay their bills

 

I think the UK is in for an even rockier ride.

Just a couple of years of the hard right ERG in the driving seat with incompetent unconscionable patsy's at the helm and the UK has lost not just its financial standing, but its reputation.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

"The government's cut in the 45% tax rate will hand £1 billion to just 2,500 people, who each have income in excess of £3.5 million"

- Sam Bright

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

If earning £200,000 you'll gain £5,220 p.a.,

If earning £1 million you'll gain £55,220

 

If earning £20,000 you'll get just £157

 

any populist cheerleaders want to explain why, with oil below $80 a barrel again, the UK consumers are still paying such high prices?

 

[honeybee13]

Nomura are predicting that the pound will hit parity with the dollar by the end of November and lower than that by the end of the year. Their quote 'Hope is not a strategy.'

 

BoE are expected to raise interest rates imminently but No10 is refusing to comment on the situation.

 

Is it possible that Tory MPs will rebel in sufficient numbers to vote down the budget?

[honeybee13]

From the Guardian's economics editor. Maybe getting rid of the respected Perm Sec at the Treasury wasn't such a great idea?

 

Pound’s plummet underlines schoolboy error by Kwasi Kwarteng | Sterling | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Chancellor added to market worries by pledging further tax cuts in full budget planned for later this year

 

[tobyjugg2]

Don't you think getting rid of him (like any oversight) enabled this?

He probably said 'don't be stupid, I cant support this' - so had to go.

 

Don't assume they don't know what they are doing ... they do.

[honeybee13]

Oh, I'm pretty sure the perm sec would have disagreed, yes. But getting rid of all the experts and experienced civil servants isn't a smart move and will rebound on them.

 

I see there are reports of letters going to the 1922 committee already, after the mini budget.

[tobyjugg2]

another change of leader with no GE

Johnson back LOL why hasn't he been at least pulled up for misleading parliament yet?

 

Tax breaks for the rich folk mean full coffers from donations ..

 

 

I think a lot of them want out and someone to blame - preferably Starmer - they might be in for a shock

 

[honeybee13]

The privileges committee wasn't really supposed to start investigating until September.

 

They released a repudation of Lord Pannick's challenge earlier today. The one trying to kybosh the enquiry - they basically said it showed a misunderstanding of parliamentary procedures and had confused it with criminal law.

[honeybee13]

From Baron O'Neill, ex-chairman of Goldman Sachs.

 

'By not allowing the OBR to come up with an independent assessment, it’s just created a view around the world that what on earth is going on inside the British Government and that there aren’t really many adults in the room, let’s say.'

 

Financial people would like a joint statement with Andrew Bailey and Kwarteng to calm the markets, but the BoE could reassure investors with a statement. Others think Kwarteng and Truss should explain their strategy.

[honeybee13]

A number of professional economists are talking about a sterling crisis and not understanding why Andrew Bailey and Kwarteng are talking about making announcements in two months' time.

 

It's also been said that both of them have credibility problems.

[theoldrouge]

I said many weeks ago that Truss economic policy would be a disaster before she was even elected

I also said Starmer and the ginger growler would be Armageddon and having listened to the conference bluster nothing changes my mind

If Starmer were elected with the help of The tartan socialists the pound would be in total freefall

Sadly its all far too late

Many of the Gsibs are In danger of collapsing without massive support 

Look at the euro already below parity and the Italian election results can only worsen that situation 

[tobyjugg2]

Populist Pound also tanking against Euro

 

 

Goldman Sachs Pound Forecasts: Lows against U.S. Dollar and Euro to be Retested

WWW.POUNDSTERLINGLIVE.COM

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Investment bank Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecasts for the British Pound, showing further losses against the Euro are likely and a retest of...

 

Pound to Euro: Today's Live GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Data, Chart, Statistics, Volumes and History

WWW.POUNDSTERLINGLIVE.COM

 

 

GBP EUR Chart – Pound to Euro Rate — TradingView

WWW.TRADINGVIEW.COM

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View live British Pound / Euro chart to track latest price changes. Trade ideas, forecasts and market news are at your disposal as well.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Its pretty basic, no way it can be simple incompetence

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

The Tories at the next election will have a problem with discussing immigration.

 

Appears Truss wants more immigration to fill job vacancies, but how many would be tolerable to most Tories and Brexiteers?

 

If at the time of the next election, immigration numbers are at similar levels to before Brexit, then I can see many Brexit voters asking themselves why they voted leave.

 

And Tories control of borders with hundreds arriving in dingies on the shores of Kent every day will be difficult for them to explain away.  Why is the UK not working with France to tackle this problem more effectively?

[honeybee13]

I'm not sure how good this government [and the last one] are at co-operating with near neighbours and using Macron and the French as a political punchbag hasn't been clever.

 

I'm amazed the French are still helping at all after what's been said about them but I keep reading that the UK isn't paying over all the money it's promised.

[honeybee13]

OH has just had a conference call with a UK investment house cancelled. Kwarteng has called a meeting with a lot of large institutions this morning and I hope they don't hold back on what they think.

 

I've also read that he's meeting the BoE, whatever difference that might make.

 

Has anyone seen the PM?

[tobyjugg2]

I see that one of the investigations into Johnson (accuri while mayor) is a major cop-out and says 'the rules need strengthening' and didn't adhere to the Nolan principles. 

..Rather than 'He's a lying corrupt ****** who wasted taxpayer money and took his trollop on Mayoral trips at taxpayer expense while 'laying' the foundations for cronyism and VIP lanes in his government.

 

Johnson is rumored to have said ' I always adhere to the Nolan principals ' I'm always in the mood for dancing, especially at partys and I always want attention to me. 

 

As it seems lots of mortgage deals are being withdrawn and a VERY busy day in the finance sector with record bonuses expected to be upcoming

Edited September 27, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

I see an (probably 90+% of the) interpretation of the likely reasons behind collapsing the economy is hitting the papers

Rather than just cut services, they put the country into a position where it has no other option,

like, and following on from  Johnsons attempts to burn all bridges to any EU partnership

 

What is Kwasi Kwarteng really up to? One answer: this is a reckless gamble to shrink the state | Adam Tooze | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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In the US they call it ‘starving the beast’ – cut taxes and, as revenue decreases, you create irresistible pressure for austerity, says Adam...

 

[honeybee13]

For someone who's only been PM for three weeks, Truss is acquiring nicknames quite fast. 

 

I can't decide between Mad Mary or the one that City traders are tweeting. They're calling her Daggers, as in Dagenham, two stops beyond Barking [on the London underground.]

[honeybee13]

Oh yes, and there are rumours of the 1922 committee calling an EGM to change the rule that the PM is immune from a no confidence vote for the first 12 months.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Truss PM for less time than the leadership contest took - despite the leadership contest being dragged out

That would be some record to beat - and hugely funny if the doing wasn't destroying our nation and so many lives.

 

Who TF will run this time?

- the same old same old of last time - Truss (she served her purpose) +  'the corrupt liar' and grayling?

 

Is that the plan?

Keep running leadership contests every couple of months with a brief interlude of extreme trashing the remnants of the economy, reputation and environment in-between each one?

Edited September 27, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Oh dear. Apparently things aren't good between KK and the BoE either.

 

AFAIK the PM hasn't been seen for two days now.

 

Liz Truss had to be convinced to issue statement amid market turmoil after mini-budget

NEWS.SKY.COM

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The prime minister's initial instinct had been to stand firm and say little or nothing while faced with market turmoil, spiking borrowing costs, and the...