The Power Of Nature.Wild Weather.Climate Change.

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

That's pretty scary, TJ. I hope I don't live to see it.

???? .. This year the average is expected to have breached, next year similar or higher ...

Are you seriously ill HB?

 

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I hope I don't live to see it.Changing the subject, I saw recently that some MPs from Macron's party aren't happy about sewage being dumped into the Channel and the North Sea.

Neither am I - including UK rivers and aquifers - while UK water companies and politicians are saying UK population must pay more if they want a basic service - as if the water companies would do anything other than pay increased dividends and senior staff bonuses with it

Rather like Cress and her honors and golden parachute for overseeing a force that is rotten to its core

 

[tobyjugg2]

I see the water crim companies want to increase the water tax the public pays .. to pay for 'investment' to resolve the (allegedly NOT yet proven beyond all possible measures of doubt) illegal and immoral poisoning of our waterways and environment for profit by these companies

.. but they have already been paid to do that - and just gave it and more (by loading the companies with debt) to pay dividends and boss' bonuses for NOT doing that ..

So why would anyone think they wont just carry on in the same manner with any extra money?

Bills should be FROZEN (at least) and ALL dividends and bonuses cancelled until the issues are resolved imo

English water firms ask customers to pay for £96bn plan to cuts leaks and discharges | Water industry | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Upgrades and plans for 30,000 new jobs depend on adding up to £156 extra a year on bills

 

[tobyjugg2]

oh - and if anyone doubts that, according to an analysis by David Hall, visiting professor at the public services international research unit at Greenwich University:

"on average, 23.5 million householders will pay £425 more to 2030 to pay for the investment to fix the sewerage system. This is on top of an increase of £624 to fund dividend payments in the same period."

.. So thats 50% more in (company assurances on) dividends than investment from these increases in water bills.

[honeybee13]

I don't know about the figures but I think the privatised water companies have done a terrible job over pollution and renewal of the system. It seems that every time they're caught out, the want to draw a line under it - and all the debts, the bonuses and payments to shareholders - and load everything onto the customer again.

Like you, I don't trust them to invest the extra money where they say they will.

[honeybee13]

Thoughts from Feargal Sharkey on the water companies on the BBC earlier.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1708744457833599457

[tobyjugg2]

I agree with feargal almost completely. I'd accept the invites and turn up with a film crew.

I see the northern end of hs2 has been ditched - until theres another twirl to SAY it hasn't been and another few million of taxpayer money is routed to VIPals to prove it .. until the next general election either removes the responsibility of gives them 4/5 more years to fuddle it (and more pollution poured into the rivers in the smoke and mirror efforts to make it look like it will be done).

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

and a little additional point:

The approx 11 year sun cycle is 'widely known. That its variable, and shorter cycles normally end up much hotter at an earlier peak is less well known

This appear to be one of those cycles.

An additional extreme concern is that the sun also has approx 90 year cycles .. and we are looking more and more like we are at the start of 30-40 years of increased solar output in addition to the still increasing levels of greenhouse gas output turning our planet into a greenhouse to trap that increased heat.

 

Of course all this is complicated by planetary orbits and their gravitational effects on the Sun as well as the distance,

... and our Earths' orbit not being circular .. but we have also passed the point where our orbit is furthest from the sun in summer ...

 

The failing of the 'gulf stream' which added heat to the British isles and our Oceanic facing Northern location is buffering us somewhat - but note that British sea temperatures have been 4-5 degrees above 'normal' ... and that isnt all to do with fermentation of the human sewage the water companies have been dumping.

 

Rapid dumping of vast amount of polar 'cold' into the Northern (our) latitudes will be a sign of tipping points being breached.

 

Yearly mean and monthly smoothed sunspot number | SIDC

WWW.SIDC.BE

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Yearly mean sunspot number (black) up to 1749 and monthly 13-month smoothed sunspot number (blue) from 1749 up to the present.

 

[honeybee13]

Sunak’s U-turns make net zero harder and keep bills high, watchdog warns | Green politics | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Climate Change Committee also says rowing back on climate policies has harmed investment into UK

 

[tobyjugg2]

Seems likely to be worse than that HB as its being reported that Sunuck intends to not only juggle figures, but also claim prior claimed 'over' (sic lol) 'achievements ie in carbon offset trading (which has been demonstrated as false) - against current commitments.

I (shocking even given my opinion of these Cons) cant see anything apart from smoke and mirrors - absolutely nothing other than increases in greenhouse emissions and waste

I know others inc US-A are at least as bad - but this is Britain, who once led the way - some of which ways were good.

 

Lets not forget that HS2 (what there is of it) costs and delays were massively increased by Tories planning the route - then Tory MPs fudging and changing it to suit Tory doners and golf clubs

 

Like this :

 

Senior Tory says Shapps privately assured him £3bn HS2 branch will be scrapped | HS2 | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Assurances offered to Graham Brady may raise questions about why decision has not been made public

 

[tobyjugg2]

Nimbyism writ large

Thanks to the nimby lobbying of Tory MPs in the Cotswolds and elsewhere on the route between London and Birmingham, the first leg of HS2 spends most of its time in cuttings and going through tunnels.  So much so that it is estimated that out of a 48-minute journey, passengers will only have 7 minutes with a view. 

Not only is this a shame for passengers but it is a very major part of the cost overrun – cuttings and, in particular, tunnels are very expensive.

- TLE

 

[tobyjugg2]

On 12/10/2023 at 20:46, tobyjugg2 said:

Seems likely to be worse than that HB as its being reported that Sunuck intends to not only juggle figures, but also claim prior claimed 'over' (sic lol) 'achievements ie in carbon offset trading (which has been demonstrated as false) - against current commitments.

and here it is:

a quote: First, in the allocation of humanitarian spending in the 10% of the poorest countries, the UK will in future assume 30% was spent on internal climate finance, without making a precise calculation. (aka without checking)

Simile: The UK will now assume all the vast tax relief given to oil companies will be spent on green investment rather than more oil drilling without bothering to check, and claim those sums as such to boost our green credentials even though we have no reason to believe they will be. .. but no evidence they aren't as we wont look.

 

Definitions changing in UK’s bid to meet climate finance target | Politics | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Andrew Mitchell, the development minister, said ‘clarifications’ would more accurately reflect spending

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is 'unavoidable,' study finds | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

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British Antarctic Survey researchers have found that the rate at which ice is melting and contributing to sea level rise will accelerate in the next century...

Its just how quickly, and how much the sea level will rise is at question.

Look at worst case scenarios for a real world median - which may well end up being conservative.

[honeybee13]

UK regulator trying to block release of Shell North Sea documents | Fossil fuels | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: North Sea Transition Authority under fire for using lawyers to argue against publication of environmental impact

 

[tobyjugg2]

The public also needs to know how much they received in tax rebates alleviating the 'windfall tax' on their profiteering excess profits .. those rebates apparently based on little if anything more than a few creative accounting practices by the energy giants

.. while British people couldn't (and can't) afford to heat their homes.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Expecting any improvements in water quality, or reduction in sewage dumping?

Why when the Tories can just report something different - or nothing relevant at all?

"In 2019, the last time the full water assessments took place, just 14% of rivers were in good ecological health and none met standards for good chemical health. The government has said it does not intend to deliver a complete update until 2025, the latest permissible date under the new WFD."

 

England to diverge from EU water monitoring standards | Rivers | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: campaigners fear less rigorous methods could lead to more pollution in rivers and waterways

 

 

While:

"Earlier this year it emerged that South East has spent more on dividends and servicing its debt pile over the past two years than investing in infrastructure. It spent £232m on distributing dividends and paying interest on its debts in the two years to March 2022, according to a research by the University of Greenwich, compared with investments of £179.8m in upgrading infrastructure"

Ofwat warns over financial health of four water suppliers in England | Water industry | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Thames Water and Southern Water among firms urged to take action to secure long-term finances

 

[tobyjugg2]

England's wettest week for decade brings mass pollution and hours of sewage discharge to rivers

INEWS.CO.UK

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Campaigners are raising the alarm about the impact this week's weather is having on rivers, as data show a huge increase in sewage discharges

 

[honeybee13]

Sunak seems to be turning the King's speech into something very political. And announcing policies that seem designed more to draw dividing lines with Labour than to address energy security.

Rishi Sunak to ‘double down’ on anti-green policies in king’s speech | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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PM will announce a new system for awarding oil and gas exploration licences, and new pro-car legislation, sources say

 

[tobyjugg2]

and the crucial part:

 

"13 years of North Sea licensing under the Tories has led to the discovery of very small amounts of gas, the equivalent of just nine weeks’ worth of typical usage across the country."

"These 12 new fields contain just nine weeks of gas, but only half have begun producing. To date, just 16 days worth of gas has been produced from them since 2010. And half of this has been produced by the Sillimanite gas field, which is 30%-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom, and has been exported to the Netherlands."

 

and I'll bet the money from the sale doesn't go to green, sustainable, cost effective UK jobs/energy creation eh?

 

Just another Tory scam routing taxpayer money to pals and doners

[tobyjugg2]

Just in case there are any with doubts:

More extreme weather events like extreme storms, ectreme flash rainfall, extreme winds, and real world possibilities/probabilities of a foot of sea level increase by 2050  - while sunak reduces renewable investment and increases oil drilling tax funded licenses.

"The Earth’s climate is more sensitive to human-caused changes than scientists have realized until now, meaning that a “dangerous” burst of heating will be unleashed that will push the world to be 1.5C hotter than it was, on average, in pre-industrial times within the 2020s and 2C hotter by 2050, the paper published on Thursday predicts.

‘We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come

This alarming speed-up of global heating, which would mean the world breaches the internationally agreed 1.5C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement far sooner than expected, risks a world “less tolerable to humanity, with greater climate extremes”, according to the study led by Hansen, the former Nasa scientist who issued a foundational warning about climate change to the US Congress back in the 1980s."

 

Global heating is accelerating, warns scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 80s | Climate crisis | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Study delivers dire warning although rate of increase is debated by some scientists amid a record-breaking year of heat

 

 

Global warming in the pipeline | Oxford Open Climate Change | Oxford Academic

ACADEMIC.OUP.COM

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Abstract. Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ±...

 

[tobyjugg2]

Of course, we already have breached 1.5 degrees repeatedly, and the Northern hemisphere land masses by a large margin, as already detailed here, its just the yearly average that hasn't quite breached it yet.

If the shallow sea around the UK had been included (4-5 degrees above normal over a significant period) ..

- its only the deep seas thats kept the average below 2 degrees of heating let alone 1.5 - but that storage cooler is heating up at an accelerating rate.

 

World breaches key 1.5C warming mark for record number of days

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The BBC finds that there have been a record number of days in 2023 that breached the 1.5C temperature limit.

Edited November 5, 2023 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Thames Water has pumped at least 72bn litres of sewage into the River Thames just since 2020

Roughly equal to 29,000 Olympic swimming pools

 

Thames Water pumped at least 72bn litres of sewage into Thames since 2020 | Water | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Lib Dems call for water companies to be more transparent with their data on sewage spills

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Chris Skidmore's views are interesting as a Tory MP.

Conservative party heading in ‘very dark direction’, says former minister | Chris Skidmore | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Chris Skidmore says use of negative political tactics by fellow Tory MPs is putting climate and people at risk

 

[tobyjugg2]

not just saving the world

the micro economics of a green revolution would transform and turbo charge the UK economy .. including high quality job growth, GDP growth and energy security

Very (traditional) Conservative and very very Rachel Reeve (compliment intended to both)

Of course the current Torys just want to invest in UK bled for profits for their doners in the fossil fuel industry, driving increased cost in an ever diminishing and damaging industry which makes the UK poorer  in every way (apart from a very few) (criticism intended)

 

[tobyjugg2]

On 24/08/2022 at 08:13, tobyjugg2 said:

Worth noting that:

 

A previous 'hottest UK temperature' was in August 1911

Forget the heatwaves of the 50's and 70's, This wasn't broken until August 1990

We know that the new hottest ever recorded (day and night) Uk temps were set just a short while ago (2022)

 

 

I predict that this latest hottest UK day record, extreme as it is, will be broken inside 3 years, even given that the gulf stream is slowing reducing the heat energy to the UK , and we will likely be more effected than most by dumping of cold polar air due to the accelerating breakdown of the 'polar barrier' - and not forgetting that more energy in the UK system generally means more clouds and wind - generally averaging day and night temps ...

(I actually doubt the record will last to this time next year - and it may even get 'tested again this year)

 

 

(and no, the updated stats on the projected current solar cycle duration and energy output aren't available yet - and what is available is very mixed - its still 'officially projected to be another extremely low output solar cycle)

little reminder

[tobyjugg2]

as towns are flooded, and sewage pours into our waterways ..

 

UK's United Utilities half-year buoyed by pricier customer bills

 

UK's United Utilities half-year buoyed by pricier customer bills | Reuters

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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UK's United Utilities Group on Thursday retained its forecast for annual revenue to rise by about 150 million pounds, after the water supplier's...