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The great interest rate rip off part 1


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If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

UK finances deteriorate further

The government was forced to borrow £4.3bn last month - the first time it has borrowed in January since records began.

Calls for budget squeeze

UK unemployment sees slight fall

UK inflation accelerates to 3.5%

o.gif

_47325689_008604831-1.jpg o.gifEstate agency probe 'disappoints'

 

A trade body says a review that gave estate agents a clean bill of health has missed an opportunity to regulate the sector.

 

o.gif

o.gif_47327723_red226.jpg o.gifDriving school in administration

 

The parent company of driving instructor business Red Driving School, the UK's third largest, goes into administration

 

 

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Ladbrokes profit hit by recession

 

Thorntons enjoys sweeter profits

 

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If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

U.S. Cracks Down on ‘Contractors’ as a Tax Dodge

 

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE

 

 

18workers_CA0-sfSpan.jpg

Jodi Hilton for The New York Times

 

Fritz Elienberg, who was a contract worker for RCN, sued the company after he was injured.

 

Federal and state officials are pursuing firms that try to pass off regular employees as independent contractors.

 

 

Profit Rose but Outlook Slips at Wal-Mart

 

By REUTERS 8:30 AM ET

 

The retail giant forecast earnings for the current quarter that could miss Wall Street estimates.

 

Shares Wander Amid Renewed Inflation Concerns

 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 3 minutes ago

 

As concerns about the debt crisis in Greece eased somewhat, European traders found reasons to be optimistic about a U.S. recovery.

 

Energy Costs Push Up Producer Prices

 

By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ 15 minutes ago

 

The surprisingly large jump in wholesale prices in January was viewed as a temporary blip and not the start of inflation problems.

 

Britain Sees First January Budget Deficit in 17 Years

 

By JULIA WERDIGIER 9:00 AM ET

 

A shortfall in tax receipts highlighted the country's deteriorating public finances.

 

 

Japan’s Central Bank Stands Pat on Rates

 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 7:48 AM ET

 

Thel bank held interest rates just above zero and held off on new policy steps, resisting government pressure to escalate the fight against deflation.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Fed hikes discount rate but not tightening policy | Reuters

 

The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it raised the interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans but insisted that its first rate move since December 2008 would not raise borrowing costs for consumers or companies.

The Fed cast its decision to raise the discount rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent as a response to improved financial market conditions that warrant less of a helping hand from the U.S. central bank.

It went to pains to draw the distinction between the discount rate and its target for overnight interbank rates, its main monetary policy tool, which remains unchanged near zero percent as a fragile U.S. economic recovery struggles to gain traction.

"Like the closure of a number of extraordinary credit programs earlier this month, these changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve's lending facilities," the Fed said in a statement.

 

The games about to kick off?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Barack Obama ignores Chinese anger and greets the Dalai Lama at the White House - Times Online

 

President Obama and the Dalai Lama spent more than an hour together in the White House yesterday, out of sight of the press but aware that Beijing regards their meeting as an infringement of Chinese sovereignty.

As a large crowd of Tibetan supporters — and smaller groups of Chinese — gathered on Pennsylvania Avenue, the exiled Tibetan leader made up for his failure to secure an invitation from Mr Obama on his last trip to Washington with a long discussion of religious freedom and human rights that he said showed the President’s “genuine concern” for Tibet.

The meeting may jeopardise longstanding American efforts to secure Chinese co-operation on Iran, North Korea and climate change, but Mr Obama had little choice but to welcome the Dalai Lama: he was harshly criticised from both the Left and the Right for ruling out a meeting in October, and his deferential approach to Beijing since then has yielded little except accusations of appearing weak on the world stage.

 

Tensions increasing between US and China.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Will Gordon Brown call an April election? Prime Minister signals change of plan as fear grows of a double dip recession | Mail Online

 

Gordon Brown yesterday signalled the prospect of an early election after Britain was battered by a wave of dire economic news.

A slew of torrid reports triggered fears that Britain will tumble back into recession with a worse budget deficit than Greece.

It was revealed yesterday that the Treasury borrowed money in January for the first time on record. January is normally a month of big surpluses, because of the tax receipts that come rolling in at the beginning of the year.

 

The Prime Minister will tomorrow indicate his intention to hold an early election by spelling out Labour's main election pledges - one of which is to 'ensure the recovery' of the economy.

Gathering fears of a 'double dip' recession could force him to call an election before April 23.

That is the day the Office of National Statistics releases growth figures which could show the UK has plunged back into the red.

On a bleak day:

 

 

  • The Treasury said it was forced to borrow £4.3billion in January - normally a month when it reports bumper surpluses.
  • The housing market took a new dive as mortgage lending tumbled to a ten-year low.
  • A Bank of England survey showed lending to cash-starved businesses fell by the most on record in December
  • Britain tumbled in a league table of economies, recording the second-lowest productivity among G7 countries after Japan
  • A report revealed the number of new homes built last year fell to its lowest level since the 1940s.

Mr Brown has long been expected to call an election for May 6, the day local elections are held.

 

 

A double dip, how shocking I wasn't expecting that. Although that's providing Q4 2009 figures are revised downwards. 0.1% growth could easily be revised downwards and Jan tax receipts are really bad.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Top economists hit back at Tories over spending cuts | Politics | The Guardian

 

A war of words has broken out among some of Britain's most respected economists over Conservative plans to begin cutting public spending immediately if they win the general election.

More than 60 academics have issued a rebuke to the claim by George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, that a consensus of economic experts supports his policies.

In two letters, one led by Lord Skidelsky, a biographer of JM Keynes, and former monetary policy committee member David Blanchflower, and the other led by Lord Layard, emeritus professor of economics at the LSE, the economists have written to today's Financial Times to warn that starting a fiscal squeeze immediately could jeopardise the recovery, and "for the good of the British people, the first priority must be to restore robust economic growth".

They argue that the increase in the deficit in the last two years was unavoidable, given that the UK has just experienced the most severe recession since the *second world war and GDP has fallen by 6%, forcing emergency government action to prevent the economy "falling off a cliff".

Meanwhile, yesterday's government borrowing figures, the worst on record for January, prompted speculation that Gordon Brown would call an early *general election.

That speculation was further fuelled by news that the prime minister would lay out Labour's four election campaign themes at an event tomorrow. These will be: securing the economic recovery; protecting frontline services; standing up for the many; and investment in new industries

 

We have been in a bubble, the bubble has burst spending cannot be maintained at current levels, unless we find another bubble to fund it all.

 

It would appear that these idiots have no idea what it is they are talking about. Still give em all the nobel prize for economics and everyone will believe them.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Asia Leads the Global End to Cheap Money - NYTimes.com

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve has just kick-started its cautious exit from unprecedented emergency lending measures — but the process has been going on for months in the Asia-Pacific region, underscoring the two-speed path of the global recovery.

 

Countries from Australia to China have been leading the global march away from easy credit as their economies rebound strongly, while Europe and the United States are still trying to find a solid footing.

 

“The historic shift in the center of economic gravity to the Asian region is continuing, and if anything it has been highlighted by the different performances during the crisis and initial recovery,” Glenn Stevens, the governor of Australia’s central bank, told legislators in Canberra on Friday.

 

Last October, Australia became the first major economy to start raising the cost of borrowing. At that time, higher lending rates were still out of the question in the United States and Europe. The Reserve Bank of Australia has now raised its key cash rate a total of three times, by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 3.75 percent. And on Friday, Mr. Stevens signaled that more moves are on the way.

In China, where growth has once again reached breakneck levels and inflation is becoming a worry, the authorities have deployed a different tool to cool an economy that some believe may be in a bubble. Rather than raise interest rates outright, the country’s central bank has instructed state-owned banks to set aside a larger portion of their reserves — a move that limits the amount they can lend to consumers and businesses.

 

A first rise in the so-called “reserve requirement ratio” for banks came in mid-January. Only a month later, an unexpected second increase took the ratio to 16.5 percent for large banks. At the start of this year, the ratio had stood at 15.5 percent.

India, which likewise avoided the banking collapses that beset the Western world, also has deployed the cash reserve ratio tool, raising the requirement for banks in late January.

 

And Vietnam staged a rate rise in November, increasing its key interest rate by one percentage point to 8 percent, though that move was aimed in part at bolstering its beleaguered currency rather than at constraining excessive growth.

 

Several other countries in the region are widely expected to start nudging up the cost of borrowing again in coming months — though the global nervousness about the ability of Greece to service its debt means that central bankers, even in fast-growing and little indebted Asia, may hold off any rate increases until the second quarter of the year.

 

“My impression is that central bankers would like to tighten earlier, but there is tremendous political pressure to hold off,” said Fred Neumann, a regional economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. “And the Greek situation has provided an argument to delay any moves.”

 

Worries about Greece, and several other smaller European states that share the euro currency, have sent the euro sharply lower in recent weeks and weighed heavily on global equity markets.

 

“There is a broad sense of caution out there,” said Wai Ho Leong, a regional economist at Barclays Capital, based in Singapore. “Policymakers are watching unfolding developments in Europe closely.”

 

Still, the next central banks to tighten monetary policy are likely to include South Korea, which has held its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent for 12 months in a row, and Taiwan.

 

The governor of the South Korean central bank, Lee Seong-tae, said earlier this week that a rate increase was likely not far off. And though analysts now believe that this likely means the second quarter of 2010, a move before mid-year would still come significantly earlier than what is expected for the United States and Europe.

 

Are they referring to the other PIIGS as smaller European states? How quaint.

 

The trouble is if rates go up Greece defaults, possible causing a global shockwave triggering off more defaults as other nations won't have the money to pay. Keep the rates low and it's still likely that Greece will default. Everything is pointing towards the Western financial system is one huge ponzi scheme which was never going to work.

 

I wonder if we will get through this year without another major financial crisis?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Retail sales fall 1.8 per cent - Business News, Business - The Independent

 

Retail sales slumped in January as heavy snow blitzed the high street, official figures showed today.

 

Sales volumes fell by a bigger than expected 1.8 per cent compared to the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

 

The figures were also weighed down by the inclusion of petrol in the official figures for the first time as drivers stayed at home in the poor weather.

 

The 1.8 per cent fall is the biggest month-on-month decline since the early stages of the slump in June 2008, while December's sales were also revised down to a 0.2 per cent fall instead of the 0.3 per cent growth initially registered.

 

The disappointing figures increase the risk of a slide back into recession in the opening three months of this year after the UK crawled to 0.1 per cent growth in the final quarter of 2009.

 

The figures revealed a 13.4 per cent slump in sales volumes for household goods stores in January, while food retailers registered a 2.4 per cent decline. Petrol sales volumes were down 11 per cent, more than offsetting gains for clothing and department stores.

 

Stripping out petrol, overall sales volumes fell 1.2 per cent in January, which is the biggest month on month drop since February last year.

 

IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said the the weak data reinforced concerns over a "double-dip" recession as retailers were hit by a "perfect storm".

 

As well as the bleak winter weather, VAT has been hiked back to 17.5 per cent and firms have controlled stock more tightly to protect profit margins.

 

ING Bank economist James Knightley said: "Sales in aggregate should rebound in February, but given household debts remain high, incomes are under downward pressure and taxes are rising, consumer cash flows are likely to be restricted in 2010.

 

No shock for most on here that snow got the blame for the poor figures, only in the UK does snow fall and the economy collapse.

 

What's more interesting in this is that the Dec figures have been revised DOWNWARDS it would appear that the 0.1% growth registered at the end of Q4 is under real thread of becoming a negative figure meaning the UK still has not exited from recession! That's after the BoE printing £200bn of free funny money!

 

It would appear that 2010 is going to get very interesting especially as govt tax revenue is clearly collapsing, GDP figures are clearly masking severe structural weakness.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Spain faces $200bn maturing debt | Money Supply | FT.com

 

A troubling chart from Thomson Reuters this morning, showing Spain facing $203.7bn maturing syndicated debt in the coming six years. That is roughly a fifth of the country’s annual gross domestic product (which was $261.5m for Q4 last year). Italy is second with $95.9bn over the same period. Greece - orange on the chart - is almost insignificant in context.

synd-loans.png

Chart courtesy of Thomson Reuters; source Thomson Reuters LPC/DealScan

Maturing loans are significant as new debt will be needed to plug the gap. Countries perceived as risky will pay a higher ‘new issue premium’, as a mooted deal in Greece is currently showing. Two questions: who will be these countries’ creditor (China?)? And what are the figures for the UK & US (I’m working on this one)?

 

See what the figures for the UK / US will be interesting.

 

Greece is the mere appetiser.

 

This is what all magicians do, distraction. Clearly Greece is being the distraction over even bigger problems.

 

Still at least we have global recovery now and everything will be OK!

 

Banking crisis's last years, I suspect that a global financial crisis on the scale we have means this is likely to last at least a decade if not several if we avoid spectre of war.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Shock as British deficit equals that of Greece - Business News, Business - The Independent

 

Britain's public finances are in a worse position than those of Greece, according to the latest figures on government borrowing. The Office for National Statistics said yesterday that January alone saw a net shortfall of £4.3bn, far worse than City forecasts and in a month which has always previously shown a healthy surplus. It puts the UK on track for a deficit of £180bn this year, or 12.8 per cent of GDP, economists said, shading the Greek figure, hitherto the worst in the European Union, of 12.7 per cent. In the pre-Budget report the Chancellor forecast a deficit of £178bn for the current year. Warnings that the UK could face a Greek-style crisis of confidence have been building for some weeks, and yesterday saw a sell-off of sterling and British government securities, or gilts, on the disappointing news.

Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics commented: "The figures suggest that this year's budget deficit could exceed that of Greece and further underline the need for more decisive action to improve the fiscal position when the economy is strong enough to withstand it.

 

Still Gordon needs to help all of our hard working families and keep spending more money we don't have and increasing UK govt debt.

 

Remember to vote Labour and help bankrupt this nation even quicker. We have no option but to cut spending. Every public sector work earning over £50k should have there salaries cut by 50% for every £ earned over £50k, ie if you earned £100k your new salary would be £75k, if fact even this might not go far enough.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wall Street's Bailout Hustle : Rolling Stone

 

On January 21st, Lloyd Blankfein left a peculiar voicemail message on the work phones of his employees at Goldman Sachs. Fast becoming America's pre-eminent Marvel Comics supervillain, the CEO used the call to deploy his secret weapon: a pair of giant, nuclear-powered testicles. In his message, Blankfein addressed his plan to pay out gigantic year-end bonuses amid widespread controversy over Goldman's role in precipitating the global financial crisis.

The bank had already set aside a tidy $16.2 billion for salaries and bonuses — meaning that Goldman employees were each set to take home an average of $498,246, a number roughly commensurate with what they received during the bubble years. Still, the troops were worried: There were rumors that Dr. Ballsachs, bowing to political pressure, might be forced to scale the number back. After all, the country was broke, 14.8 million Americans were stranded on the unemployment line, and Barack Obama and the Democrats were trying to recover the populist high ground after their bitch-whipping in Massachusetts by calling for a "bailout tax" on banks. Maybe this wasn't the right time for Goldman to be throwing its annual Roman bonus orgy.

Not to worry, Blankfein reassured employees. "In a year that proved to have no shortage of story lines," he said, "I believe very strongly that performance is the ultimate narrative."

Translation: We made a s***load of money last year because we're so amazing at our jobs, so f*** all those people who want us to reduce our bonuses.

Goldman wasn't alone. The nation's six largest banks — all committed to this balls-out, I drink your milkshake! strategy of flagrantly gorging themselves as America goes hungry — set aside a whopping $140 billion for executive compensation last year, a sum only slightly less than the $164 billion they paid themselves in the pre-crash year of 2007. In a gesture of self-sacrifice, Blankfein himself took a humiliatingly low bonus of $9 million, less than the 2009 pay of elephantine New York Knicks washout Eddy Curry. But in reality, not much had changed. "What is the state of our moral being when Lloyd Blankfein taking a $9 million bonus is viewed as this great act of contrition, when every penny of it was a direct transfer from the taxpayer?" asks Eliot Spitzer, who tried to hold Wall Street accountable during his own ill-fated stint as governor of New York.

 

More at the link.

 

Got to love the bankers if it wasn't for the taxpayer pumping trillions into the system there would be very little profit to make, but still it's all there hard work skimming off the top.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Are Bond Vigilantes Now Focusing On UK Gilts? | zero hedge

 

The chart below is not indicative of the widening in the sovereign credit of some backwater PIIGS country. It shows the rather substantial move higher in 10 year British Gilt yields over the past week.

Gilds%202.18_0.jpg

Are the bond vigilantes slowly but surely (and as very much expected) moving from the periphery, where all the low hanging fruit has been picked, to the core, where the acceleration is only just starting? To be sure, the Gilts are easy targets: with QE unanimously voted out, and increasing budget deficit, there is little to like.

The Guardian has more:

"The market is upset about that – the UK budget deficit is an issue, everyone wants to know what the government plans to do," said Jim Leaviss, head of fixed interest at M&G Investments. "We need to do something, otherwise we're in big trouble."Leaviss runs a website called
Bond Vigilantes
– reviving a term coined in the 1980s in the US when activist investors sold bonds en masse, pushing yields up, and forcing cuts in the US deficit.

 

"The bond vigilantes are the most important people in the capital markets right now – they're back and they'll punish the weak," said Gary Jenkins, a credit analyst at Evolution Securities. "The bond market is the single most important market and will determine what the other markets will do: the key question this year is: will sovereign countries be able to finance themselves at a rate that's reasonable? If so, markets will develop. If not, everyone has a problem."

 

The bond vigilantes are punishing countries with high budget deficits, such as Britain, the US, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, on concerns about their ability to recoup loans. Far from declaring themselves speculative opportunists, the punishment comes against "governments that have lost control of their public finances", Leaviss said, as he iwarned governments to get public spending under control.

 

"We're reflecting the reality that developed nations need to sort out their budget problems. Otherwise, there's potential default, or inflation," he said.

 

More at the link.

 

This could force the BoE to raise interest rates.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Government Bond Market Just a Ponzi Scheme

 

Let’s face it, the government-bond market in the West is a gigantic Ponzi scheme. Most governments in the ‘developed’ world are drowning in debt, they are running mind-boggling budget deficits and printing money like there is no tomorrow. Furthermore, under the guise of quantitative easing, their central banks are buying their own newly issued debt! It is our contention that similar to Mr. Madoff’s hedge fund, the sovereign debt markets in the West have now become gigantic scams. Only this time around, the players have changed and the sums involved are significantly larger.

Figure 1 highlights the incredible expansion in America’s national debt. It is noteworthy that at the turn of the millennium, America’s national debt was less than half of its current value. Put simply, American policymakers have taken on more debt over the past decade than they have over the last one hundred years!

What is more astonishing is the fact that America is funding a large portion of its newly issued debt by direct purchases from the Federal Reserve. In other words, as private-sector demand for US Treasuries wanes, Mr. Bernanke is creating new money so that Mr. Obama’s government can bail out insolvent financial institutions. Strangely, the American establishment is quite content to pledge the economic fate of its future generations in order to protect the bondholders of dubious ‘too big to fail’ corporations. Hmm, talk about change…

DRUS02-18-10-1.gif

Apart from the world’s largest economy, various other nations in the ‘developed’ world are also following such misguided policies. For instance, UK’s national debt is exploding and is forecast to reach GBP1.1 trillion by 2011. At present, its national debt is worth GBP891 billion and this equates to GBP14,304 for every man, woman and child in the United Kingdom!

Elsewhere in Europe, the situation is equally dire in nations such as Ireland, Spain, Greece and Italy. Furthermore, various countries in Eastern Europe are on the verge of economic doom.

 

More at the link.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

£122,400,000,000 -Times Online

 

£122,400,000,000

The scale of public borrowing testifies to a wasted opportunity in the boom years to curb spending. Painful cuts are needed to make public services sustainable

 

“The National Debt is a very Good Thing and it would be dangerous to pay it off, for fear of Political Economy,” runs the incomparable judgment in 1066 and All That. There are few other defences remaining for the Government’s fiscal record. The Government borrowed £4.3 billion more than it received in taxes last month. That is the worst January figure since records began. For the first ten months of this financial year, public borrowing amounted to £122.4 billion.

January is the month when taxpayers send in their returns and corporation tax payments are due. Government revenues ought to be strong. In January last year, there was a surplus of £5.3 billion. Yet this year the Treasury had to borrow to balance the books. This represents both a monumental economic failure and a monumental political one.

The economic failure is clear. It is theoretically possible that the Government will still meet its target of a budget deficit of £178 billion for this financial year but the risk is that it will be wider. Even on the target figure, the deficit measured as a proportion of national income will amount to almost 13 per cent. That is comparable to Greece, which is mired in a huge debt crisis.

Public debt relative to GDP has been much higher in the past. But this was in wartime, when Britain amassed huge debts to pay for defence. The best case that the Government might make is that the economy has recently suffered a huge shock — the collapse of the banking system — that is comparable to the economic demands of wartime. And it is the proper role of government to prevent a recession from turning into something much worse, by filling the gap in demand left by the consumer.

But this overlooks the context. Britain went unprepared and ill equipped into the greatest financial crisis and bitterest recession since the 1930s. Believing that big cyclical variations in the economy were a thing of the past, Gordon Brown built up a wide structural deficit (that is, a deficit that will not automatically correct itself when the economy recovers). This was not for a war of national survival, but for political expediency.

 

I'm beginning to suspect this was a very clever ploy by the Chancellor to fool the stupid.

 

A record deficit was inevitable so they dressed it up with a HUGE figure of £178bn, hoping that in fact they borrow maybe £20bn - £30bn less this then allows them to claim the economy is in much better shape because of their economic management, please vote for us we only needed to borrow £150bn instead of the £178bn projected.

 

Isn't this the classic slight of hand big business feeds the market, warn of a major loss of say £2bn, market panics then announce a loss of only £1bn and everyone thinks your a business genius and your share price goes up because business isn't as bad as expected.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Breaking news:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

[/url]

 

dollar-pound_1242675g.jpg

Pound slides further on surprise Fed rate rise

 

Sterling hits nine-month low against dollar as the US currency gains after Fed fires gun on exit strategy.

US Federal Reserve raises discount rate to 0.75pc

 

 

 

money-gone_1581530g.jpg

Where did all the money go?

 

Where has the billions Britain has spent on propping up the economy gone and has it helped?

Britain's debt set to be higher than that of Greece

 

 

Britain's deficit third worst in the world, table

 

 

 

Economists warn over 'dangerous' cuts

 

Fears over Britain's economic stability after official figures showed that the Government borrowed £4.3bn last month.

Brown: Tories cannot be trusted with economy

 

 

 

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UK retail sales tumbled in January freeze

 

The severe cold snap and a rise in VAT saw retail sales drop at their sharpest pace in one-and-half years in January.

 

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BA cabin crew lose court fight to halt cost cuts

 

British Airways cabin crew have lost their High Court bid for a permanent injunction preventing the airline from imposing cost-cutting proposals.

 

BlueBay founders net £21m each from share sale

 

 

 

 

Barclays and BoA see looming oil crunch

 

 

 

 

Barrick Gold's $3.7bn spin-off looks to join FTSE 100

 

 

 

 

Whistler Olympic ski venue gets reprieve from sale

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So where did all the money go?

 

 

 

Brown: Tories cannot be trusted with economy

 

 

 

 

Britain's deficit third worst in the world, table

 

 

 

 

Economists warn over 'dangerous' spending cuts

 

 

 

 

Britain's debt set to be higher than that of Greece

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Paulson regrets blaming UK over Lehman

 

The US Treasury Secretary at the peak of the financial crisis admits he was wrong to claim 'the British screwed us' 36 Comments

 

 

 

Fed rate rise sparks fresh slide in sterling

 

The pound, already knocked by public finance data, extends its losses after surprise move by US central bank 23 Comments

 

 

 

Passengers brace for BA cabin crew strike

 

High Court ruling leaves path open for industrial action within weeks with ballot of staff due to close on Monday 39 Comments

 

 

 

Economy fears intensify on dire retail figures

 

Double-dip recession made more likely as cold weather led to the sharpest monthly fall in retail sales in 18 months 70 Comments

 

 

 

 

Greece abruptly replaces head of debt office

 

The debt-laden country has replaced the head of its debt agency with a former Goldman Sachs banker as pressure mounts

 

Foxtons not to appeal renewal fee ruling

 

London estate agent said it will not appeal a High Court decision that the renewal fees it charged landlords were unfair

 

Rentokil cancels payout despite soaring profits

 

Pest control and parcel delivery group says the outlook for 2010 is still uncertain but forecasts further growth

 

 

Capita buys property consultancy for £20m

 

Outsourcing group's move indicates the growing interest of professional services providers in real estate work

 

 

UK administrations fall to June 2007 low

 

Rate of insolvency last month fell to seven in every 10,000 businesses going under compared to nine at the same point last year

 

 

Anglo American shuns dividend as profits halve

 

Mining group fails to follow peers by resuming dividends after global downturn hits full-year profits

 

Toyota chief to face US Congress over recall

 

Akio Toyoda caves in to pressure and promises to answer investigating committee's questions with "all sincerity"

 

 

Nestle dampened by falling mineral water sales

 

The world's biggest food company is giving more cash back to investors despite expectations of further acquisitions

 

 

JP Morgan suspends analyst after Asda ‘ruse’

 

The analyst wrote a 14-page research note with information gained at a meeting from which he had been uninvited

Moral hazard of bailing out Icesave

 

Looking back, it is only to be expected that we can point to things that the Chancellor should have done differently

 

The car in front will probably still be a Toyota

 

Decades of reliability mean the carmaker’s reputation is unlikely to be badly dented by its public handling of the crisis

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Experts back spending cuts delay

More than 60 economists sign two open letters backing the government's decision to delay spending cuts until 2011.

Stephanomics: Men of letters

UK retail sales suffer sharp fall

Economists push for deficit cut

o.gif

_47331178_008781457-1.jpg o.gifDollar rises on surprise Fed move

 

The dollar rises against a basket of currencies after the US Federal Reserve increases interest rates for emergency bank loans.

 

o.gif

o.gif_44661568_ba66pa.jpg o.gifUnion loses fight to halt BA cuts

 

The Unite union fails in a High Court bid to get last year's British Airways' cabin crew changes overturned

 

 

OTHER TOP BUSINESS STORIES

UK retail sales suffer sharp fall

 

Petrol prices are 'slow to fall'

 

Barker to leave Bank of England

 

Toyota boss to go before Congress

 

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Shire profits higher on ADHD drug

 

The good and the bad of Barclays

 

Barclays: 'Judge us on our pay'

 

The John Lewis state

 

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Wal-Mart sees lower sales in US

 

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If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

U.S. Inflation Report Gives Fed Breathing Room - NYTimes.com

 

While the Federal Reserve has started scaling back emergency measures to support the economy, the latest government data on Friday reinforced the notion that more drastic tightening — raising the benchmark interest rate, for instance — was still a way off.

 

A report on consumer prices suggested that inflation appeared to be largely in check, despite a period of extraordinarily low interest rates. That should ease some of the pressure on Fed policy makers as they consider when to raise the benchmark rate and take smaller steps to normalize lending.

 

The cost of living in the United States remained steady in January, the Labor Department said, with the price of a variety of goods — everything from medical expenses to cigarettes — increasing 0.2 percent. A closely watched measure that excludes volatile food and fuel costs underscored the downward trend: it fell 0.1 percent in January, the first decrease since the end of the recession in 1982.

 

“Despite the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus injected into the economy, many prices are still stagnant or declining,” Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak, wrote in a research note on Friday. “The pricing situation still remains fragile.”

 

There were rumblings about the possibility of deflation — a three-month barometer of prices fell to zero last month — but economists generally expect the upward momentum to continue. Prices have increased 2.6 percent in the last year.

 

“Even though the economy is expanding again, the threat of deflation has not passed,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist for Capital Economics in Toronto. He noted that high vacancy rates and a flood of foreclosed homes would continue to push housing costs down.

 

So 2.6% inflation over the year is welcomed as good news. Thank god we have such economic geniuses running the show.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Fed Shift on Rates Echoes Through Asia and Europe

 

By JACK EWING and SEWELL CHAN 1:02 PM ET

 

 

The Federal Reserve’s move to normalize lending first unnerved markets, but then reassured them as investors saw an implicit vote of confidence in the U.S. economy.

 

Fed Move May Signal End to Easy Bank Profits

 

By GRAHAM BOWLEY and ERIC DASH

 

The largely technical change in policy signals that the threat of a collapse in financial markets — so real just a year and a half ago — has dissipated.

 

 

Wall Street Pushes Beyond Fed’s Rate Move

 

By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ 15 minutes ago

 

Indications that inflation remained largely in check helped calm investors concerned about the Fed’s efforts to reduce some of its emergency financial aid.

 

 

Home Delinquency Rate Fell Slightly in 4th Quarter

 

By DAVID STREITFELD 11:58 AM ET

 

Mortgage Bankers called the fourth quarter a crucial turning point for housing. Still, the percentage of loans in foreclosure rose.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1982-Complex-Loans-Didnt-Cause-Crisis-Bull!.html

 

The WSJ carried an interesting (and misleading) opinion piece today:

Regulatory reform that can improve competition and consumer choice in financial services is long overdue. But no new federal bureaucracy such as the Obama administration's proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) is needed to bring that about.

More importantly, the administration is incorrect in claiming that such an agency would have prevented the present financial crisis and is necessary to prevent the next crisis. On the contrary, such an agency might be the first step toward more problems.

How does forcing lenders to reduce a credit card or mortgage agreement to language that can fit on both sides of an 8-1/2 x 11" page in 10 point courier type constitute "a first step toward more problems?"

During the housing boom bankers made a raft of extraordinarily foolish loans. Some were the result of lenders defrauding borrowers; probably at least as many were the product of borrowers defrauding lenders. But there is no evidence, as Elizabeth Warren (a champion of CFPA and chair of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel) recently asserted on these pages, that lender fraud was the overriding cause of the crisis.

The bank loans were not foolish because borrowers didn't realize what they were doing. They were foolish because of the incentives they created for borrowers, especially when housing prices turned south.

No, the bank loans were foolish because the banks lied about what they were selling, to some degree to consumers but to a much larger degree to investors.

My own research confirms the analysis provided by University of Texas economist Stan Leibowitz on these pages last July: The initial onset of the foreclosure crisis was a problem of adjustable-rate mortgages, whether prime or subprime. It was not initially a subprime problem.

Who wrote loans without qualifying the borrower on the fully-indexed (that is, the highest rate the loan could reach) rather than (as they did) qualifying them on teaser rates that were known to have a short expiration date, sometimes as short as two years post-initiation?

That would be the banks, who created not a mortgage product but instead a product for asset-stripping the consumer, in that they wrote paper that they knew the consumer could not "pay as agreed" through the entire term.

The intent was to force the consumer to come back and get a new loan in a couple of years. This was insanely productive for the banks for two reasons: it gave them another set of fees they could strip off from the consumer, and in addition virtually the entire payment stream during those first two years on an amortized note is interest, with almost none of it principal.

That is, the intent of such a note was not a "mortgage" - an amortizing loan contemplated to be retired at maturity. The essence of these "loans" was in fact more akin to a typical commercial real-estate loan where amortization is not the prime purpose; these are typically written as interest-only balloons and refinanced, with the interest payments made from tenant leases. In this case the interest payment is made from the "home tenant's" employment cashflow. A Consumer Financial Protection Agency could and should bar the marketing of such loans as "mortgages" and instead demand they be called what they are - a complex financial transaction that effectively amounts to a lease!

The error of course in the bank's thinking was that home prices could never go down. In fact, their bet was that home prices would always appreciate fast enough to accommodate both the paid interest and the fee to refinance after two years.

In the second phase, falling home prices provided incentives for owners whose mortgages were under water to walk away from their houses. And in the third phase, which we are now experiencing, traditional macroeconomic factors like unemployment led to more foreclosures—especially where homeowners' mortgages are already underwater. Reflecting this situation, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the fastest-rising segment of foreclosures in recent months has been traditional prime, fixed-rate mortgages.

Again, we get down to my favorite graph:

DebtSpread.serendipityThumb.png

It doesn't matter how you slice the pie here. House prices cannot expand faster than wages forever, just as debt cannot expand faster than GDP forever. The compound function of exponents makes all such claims and expectations false and dangerous.

The proliferation of mortgages with minimal downpayments, interest-only or even negative amoritzation terms, and cash-out refinances meant that many consumers fell into negative equity territory much more rapidly than they would have otherwise.

Those mortgages were made available only because the banks willfully and intentionally ignored warnings by The FBI, HUD and private credit analytical firms that these loans were not as represented. They packaged them up and sold them to investors either knowing (or willfully blind) that the credit quality of the paper inside those MBS (and the more-complex securities structured upon them, including the partially and fully-synthetic versions) were not as represented.

This was not an accident it was a [problem].

Regulators may want to limit mortgages that provide so many borrowers with such strong incentives to walk away when housing prices fall. They may want to prohibit lenders from making loans with minimal downpayments or interest-only loans that result in consumers having minimal equity in their homes. But that's an issue of safety and soundness, not protection against fraud.

If regulators prosecuted and jailed those executives who misrepresented the credit quality contained in these securities then the loans could not have been made. Without the ability to obtain funds you can't loan funds.

The bank that has $100 million to loan out must sell its loans to be able to make more loans. If it cannot sell them at a price representing the risk and make money (because it allowed people to take out loans on "prime" terms when they were poor credit risks, and upon disclosing this honestly to buyers nobody will pay anything close to "par" for that paper) then they are immediately restrained from continuing this conduct and the fuel for the bubble is immediately removed.

Without that free-flowing and fraudulently-granted credit there is no price appreciation spiral that drives the bubble. The bubble does not inflate. The price appreciation does not happen. The mania is quelled before it begins and the damage to the economy does not happen.

The financial crisis resulted primarily from the rational behavior of borrowers and lenders responding to misaligned incentives, not fraud or borrower stupidity. Policies that fail to appreciate the difference will not protect, and may hurt, the very consumers they are intended to protect.

Bah. The financial crisis resulted primarily from promises by lenders (on both the funding and lending side) that were knowingly false and in some cases maliciously so. Borrowers were flatly told they could come back and refinance before any "payment shocks" happened - not that they might be able to, but that they would be able to. They were led to believe by the statements of what amounted to con men that they were getting not only a great deal but that they could come back at any time and continue to get a new great deal.

At the same time buyers of the paper emitted by these lenders and their cronies on Wall Street failed to disclose that as early as 2004 The FBI was warning of an epidemic of falsehoods in mortgage applications - that is, that the paper contained in those securities was trash. Despite having authorization to verify the statements of borrowers (via 1003s and 4506-Ts) the lenders willfully did not do so and issued paper with reps and warranties that were issued as statements but which they intentionally failed to verify. Ratings agencies accepted data submitted without verification and filled in "blank" data with unsubstantiated guesses, along with running computer models that presumed there would never be a home price decline (a mathematical impossibility given the flat income curve for the median citizen since 2000.) All of these assumptions were made by "wise people" who either factually knew or, had they actually exercised their claimed wisdom and knowledge, should have known.

Synthetics were then created at the behest of hedge funds and others through the purchase of a naked credit-default swap - a bet that the reference securities would default - while not owning the reference security. Those synthetic CDOs were then sold to investors, rated on the underlying (bogus) credit of the reference instruments. The outrageously-overrated credit quality claimed for these reference instruments came to light almost immediately, in many cases mere months after these synthetics were created, with the buyers taking heavy and in some cases total losses. Was it disclosed to the buyers of these synthetics that they came into existence only because someone bet that the purchaser would lose all their money? Would you buy a security that came into existence only because the person at who's behest it was created believed that it was in fact worthless, if that fact was disclosed to you up front?

The essence of the crisis was, as Mr. Zywicki notes, the three-cycle collapse of the housing market first by adjustable-rate loans, second by price declines and now by unemployment.

Mr. Zywicki acknowledges (in a phone call I just completed with him) that but for the price increases caused by these fraudulent misrepresentations the bubble would not have happened - and thus neither would the collapse.

BUT what he refuses to recognize is that the essence of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency is to prohibit practices that amount to fraudulent and misleading conduct on the part of lenders in their dealing with consumers. That is, promising that you "will be able to refinance" before that teaser expires, qualifying borrowers on other than fully-amortized and fully-indexed rates and other abusive practices that lead consumers to believe that the fundamental mathematical laws that govern all exponential functions have somehow been repealed, even if temporarily.

Fraud in all it's forms was the essence of this crisis. It could not and would not have occurred but for that fraud, as the home price increases seen in the 2000 decade could not have occurred without the money flow necessary to fund the spiral, and that money flow could not have happened without misrepresentations by both omission and commission up and down the line.

Each and every part of the flow of funds was involved - lenders, borrowers and investors.

Even those who were not involved in the fraud in any way - who took out traditional, fixed-rate 30 year mortgages during these years - were harmed by this fraud. They were induced to pay a price that was fraudulently inflated for the property they purchased - a price that was not supported by the fundamentals of the market - that is, free action by informed buyers and sellers - but rather a price that was inflated by the fraudulent loan originated, made and securitized to the person who bought a house down the street. That fraudulent loan presented itself in the marketplace as false demand in that the "buyer" was incapable of affording the home he allegedly "purchased." Each and every buyer of a home from 2003 to 2007 was thus harmed by these practices, irrespective of whether their loan was honestly represented to them or not.

Resolving the crisis demands prosecution for all those involved in the myriad frauds, starting from the top down. We have done exactly none of what has to happen to clear the system of this fraud, nor have we punished the perpetrators, even though intentional misrepresentation by omission or commission is, in nearly all cases where financial injury results, already illegal.

Preventing this from happening again requires not only that the financial industry be subject to true oversight and enforcement to keep it from defrauding investors, but that consumers be protected from the misrepresentations perpetrated upon them by the financial industry in the lending products offered and that it be made clear that consumer misrepresentations and frauds perpetrated upon lenders will not be tolerated either.

Mr. Zywicki is a law professor at George Mason University and a senior scholar at the Mercatus Center. This op-ed is based in part on a Mercatus working paper, "The Housing Market Crash."

Mr. Zywicki claims in his areas of expertise consumer credit and consumer lending. It is clear from his piece (and my phone call) that in point of fact his position is that anything a consumer gets themselves into is a function not of deception and defective understanding (due to omissions or commissions by the lending industry) but rather simply a matter of "efficient markets."

I strenuously disagree, and submit that if you're attending George Mason University to become versed in how to claim that it's all the consumer's fault (even when actively misled) or perhaps even to defend against allegations of these misrepresentations and omissions while working for a financial institution, you'll do well to attend his classes. He'll fill your head with everything you need to recite in a puerile attempt to defend the indefensible.

I'll take a pass as that's the sort of lawyering that leads me to recall my Shakespeare - Henry VI, of course.

 

 

 

 

Yep thank god we aren't in a debt crisis, if we where it would be because of bad loans.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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