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Revision - Economy Grew 0.3% At End Of 2009 - House Price Crash forum - Page 2

 

Market saw straight through the headline figure and focused on

a ) previous exports revised down to 0.1% from 0.8%

b ) Gross fixed capital formation came in at -3.1% vs expected 0.2%

c ) Gov spending came in at 1.2%, expected 0.2%

d ) YoY GDP -3.3% vs -3.1%, epxeted -3.1%.

 

It has worsened, as the gov had to spend more to prop up the economy

 

Some interesting figures from HPC.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Breaking news:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

AIG cuts its losses but may need more state aid - Times Online

 

American International Group (AIG), one of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis, made a $10.9 billion (£7.2 billion) net loss last year, down from almost $100 billion in 2008.

 

The troubled financial group, which survived the credit crunch with the help of $182.5 billion of aid from US taxpayers, narrowed its fourth-quarter net loss to $8.9 billion, from $61.7 billion in 2008.

 

Robert Benmosche, the veteran insurance executive who joined AIG as chief executive in August last year, said that the company had made “great progress” in carrying out its restructuring plan, which includes selling non-core businesses, cutting exposure to risky assets and stabilising its insurance operations.

 

However, in documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), AIG repeated its regular warning that that it might need additional government aid.

 

“Without additional support from the US Government, in the future there could exist substantial doubt about AIG's ability to continue as a going concern,” the company said. AIG shares dropped 9.6 per cent in pre-market trading to $24.87 each.

 

The company said that its access to funding from its subsidiaries was limited, as was its ability to support its subsidiaries.

 

Some of its investments are illiquid, which means that it cannot sell those it if needs emergency cash.

 

So is the giant squid sucking AIG dry, all of those CDS contracts where clearly in someone's favour and it certainly wasn't AIG (now the US taxpayer).

 

How much longer can US politicians get away with giving Goldman Sachs money?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Britain steps out of recession as growth revised up

 

GDP rose faster than expected in the fourth quarter, cementing the country's exit from the longest recession in history 103 Comments

 

 

 

AIG cuts its losses but may need more state aid

 

The US insurance giant, which received $182.5bn in rescue funding, has made 'progress' but could still require help

 

 

 

Losses at Lloyds swell to £6.3bn on bad debts

 

Despite loss the bank, which is 41.3 per cent owned by the UK taxpayer, is expected to pay about £200m in bonuses 23 Comments

 

 

 

House prices fall 1% in first drop for 10 months

 

Prices tumble in February after a series of 'one-offs' such as snow and the end of the stamp duty holiday 44 Comments

 

 

 

 

Southern Water to raise charges in the summer

 

Customers with new meters to be charged more June to September; 'will have no effect' on the average bill

 

Labour delays Intercity train upgrade until after the general election

 

William_Hill_661817b.jpg

Bookie predicts World Cup bonanza

 

William Hill boss blames the recession, 'volatile' sporting results and racing disruption last winter for a 9% decline in profits

 

 

GSK chief nets 76% pay rise after one year

 

Andrew Witty took home more than £8 million in pay and share awards in his first year with the pharmaceuticals giant

Lebedev near to Independent deal

 

Today is the deadline for talks between Russian billionaire and IN&M after they entered into a non-binding agreement

 

 

Tenon fined £700,000 over Lehman products

 

The FSA punishes Britain's seventh-biggest accounting firm for 'significant failings' in its advice to customers

 

 

dollar_385x185_468559b.jpg

US GDP revised up to 5.9% for fourth quarter

 

However, for the full year of 2009, GDP fell by 2.4 per cent, marking the biggest annual decline since 1946

 

 

Apple to take on Google in China push

 

In his first shareholder meeting since returning to the helm, Steve Jobs outlines plan to target the world's largest mobile market

 

 

Shares dip as Greece scares investors

 

Fears spread that the European debt disaster may derail recovery, as the US Fed looks into the role of Goldman Sachs

 

 

Former Madoff aide charged with fraud

 

Daniel Bonaventre, Bernard Madoff’s 63-year-old former operations chief, is accused of authoring the swindler's books

 

RBS, the UK’s potential piggy bank

 

Chief executive believes that the state-controlled bank has reached an "inflexion point" in the way that it is perceived

 

 

Peter Sands bonus dilemma for Lord Myners

 

Shareholders support payment for Standard Chartered chief that unpopular City Minister declared should not be paid

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

UK economic growth revised upward

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the final three months of last year, faster than previously thought, figures show.

Darling welcomes growth

A weak and fragile recovery

Who owns the UK's debt?

o.gif

_47378693_lloyds_6.jpg o.gifBad debts of £24bn knock Lloyds

 

Lloyds Banking Group lost £24bn on bad loans in 2009, forcing the bank heavily into the red, annual results show.

 

o.gif

o.gif_47181293_005338379-1.jpg o.gifJaguar Land Rover back into black

 

The upmarket carmaker is back in profit thanks to cost-cutting and new models, according to new owners Tata Motors

 

 

OTHER TOP BUSINESS STORIES

US economy in upward revision

 

Pound falls on UK recovery data

 

UK house prices 'lose momentum'

 

Administrator vows to save Pompey

 

Sharp drop in Volkswagen profits

 

Stoke City free of external debt

 

Lloyds: Is it doing enough for Britain?

 

MORE FROM BUSINESS

Endowment payouts fall at the Pru

 

Greek finances better in January

 

Pair jailed after £4.5m tax fraud

 

Intercity trains upgrade delayed

 

Fujitsu UK votes to end dispute

 

AIG records $9bn quarterly loss

 

William Hill profits take a dive

 

Seasonal water bills at Southern

 

Japan Airlines reports huge loss

 

India to review economy stimulus

 

Japanese economic data improves

 

EU: Settlement goods not Israeli

 

Iceland repayment talks collapse

 

YOUR MONEY

Financial complaints rise again

 

RBS faces FSA complaints inquiry

 

Pension funds attack tax plans

 

ECONOMY

Deadlock at US health summit

 

Bankers still overpaid, boss says

 

German jobless rise in February

 

COMPANIES

Wall Street's Greece role probed

 

Spanish firm seeks Falklands oil

 

Telecoms giants see profits fall

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Sharp Drop in Existing Home Sales in January

 

By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ 1:04 PM ET

 

Sales of existing homes fell 7.2 percent; analysts had expected an increase. Meanwhile, the first revision of G.D.P. for late 2009 shows that the economy grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace.

 

A.I.G. Reports a Loss and Increases Its Reserves

 

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH 18 minutes ago

 

The insurance giant attributed most of its $11 billion loss for the year to a fourth-quarter charge taken to reflect that its bailout had been restructured.

 

 

Wall Street Tries to Shake Off Downbeat News

 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 20 minutes ago

 

A.I.G.’s $8.87 billion loss overshadowed a report that the nation’s economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated for the end of 2009.

 

27gcon1-thumbStandard.jpg

Germany’s Export Prowess Weighs on Euro-Zone

 

By JACK EWING

 

Thousands of small German exporters are giving a shot of growth to the E.U., but their success makes it harder for neighbors with high deficits to adjust.

 

In Greece’s Crisis, Fed Studies Wall St.’s Activities

 

By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and SEWELL CHAN

 

The Federal Reserve is examining the stratagems devised by Goldman Sachs and other big banks to help Greece mask its burgeoning debt over the last decade.

 

 

2 Big U.S. Carmakers Turn to Local Banks for Thai Factories

 

By THOMAS FULLER 7:24 AM ET

 

In a departure from previous years, General Motors and Ford have secured funding from local banks for expansion projects in Thailand.

 

I.M.F. Chief Suggests Look at New Reserve Currency

 

By SEWELL CHAN 1:35 PM ET

 

The goal, said Dominique Strauss-Kahn of the monetary fund, would be to help reduce the world’s dependency on the dollar.

 

Indian Government Pledges to Curb Debt

 

By VIKAS BAJAJ 6:45 AM ET

 

Acknowledging that its debt could threaten growth, India said that it would rein in its fiscal deficit by increasing taxes on consumer goods and slowing spending.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Indian Government Pledges to Curb Debt - NYTimes.com

 

MUMBAI — Acknowledging that its growing debt could threaten India’s economic growth, the government said Friday that it would cut its fiscal deficit by slowing the growth of spending, increasing revenue from taxes and selling pieces of state-owned firms.

 

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the budget deficit would be cut to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the financial year that starts in April, from 6.7 percent. He also promised that India would reduce the country’s debt, which stands at more than 80 percent of G.D.P., to 68 percent in five years.

 

Those commitments, which were cheered by the stock market, come as economists are increasingly concerned that governments around the world are spending beyond their means. Though India is not facing fiscal problems on the same scale as some European nations, its large debt has become a concern because it has driven up inflation.

 

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 stock index closed up 1.3 percent after Mr. Mukherjee spoke about the deficit in the annual budget speech in New Delhi. Parliament will debate and vote on the budget in the coming months.

 

“It’s a sensible budget which addresses some of the anxieties that were bothering the market,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

 

But Mr. Barua and other economists cautioned that the government’s plans would face stiff opposition and could be delayed by bureaucratic inertia. For instance, the government expects to raise 730 billion rupees, or $15.7 billion, by auctioning wireless licenses and selling stakes in state-owned firms. But the government has delayed these auctions several times during the past couple of years, and political and union opposition could derail share sales.

 

Didn't realise India had such a huge debt to GDP ratio, it seems they have been following the debt is wealth paradigm.

 

It seems lots of govts are pledging to cut govt spending, I wonder what will happen to global GDP figures?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

AIG Gets The Dreaded "Going Concern" - The Market Ticker

 

 

Gee, who saw this coming... oh wait - not in the press release, is it?

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- American International Group, Inc. (AIG) today reported a net loss attributable to AIG common shareholders of $8.9 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009, or $65.51 per diluted common share, compared to a net loss of $61.7 billion or $458.99 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2008. Fourth quarter 2009 adjusted net loss was $7.2 billion, compared to an adjusted net loss of $38.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Blah blah blah blah look at the 10Q filed with the SEC:

AIG has been significantly and adversely affected by the market turmoil in late 2008 and early 2009, and, despite the recovery in the markets in mid and late 2009, is subject to significant risks, as discussed below. Many of these risks are interrelated and occur under similar business and economic conditions, and the occurrence of certain of them may in turn cause the emergence, or exacerbate the effect, of others. Such a combination could materially increase the severity of the impact on AIG. As a result, should certain of these risks emerge, AIG may need additional support from the U.S. government.
Without additional support from the U.S. government, in the future there could exist substantial doubt about AIG's ability to continue as a going concern.
See Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Consideration of AIG's Ability to Continue as a Going Concern and Note 1 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for a further discussion.

Oops.

That's not a sentence you ever want to see in a quarterly report. It winds up in there because the auditors essentially make you do it - that is, the bean counters think you're a few beans short of a box.

Or maybe a lot of beans.

Mishkin is on CNBS this morning crowing that "clearly the recession is over."

Uh huh. And your buddies over at the NY Fed, along with The Fed in DC and CONgress, haven't fixed a damn thing.

Therefore the recession didn't do what recessions are supposed to do - that is, clear out crap companies and return balance to the economy.

Instead, we've subsidized, we've lied, we've cheated, and we've kept the debt in the system, all of which are disastrous going forward because unlike inventory recessions this has been and is a "balance sheet" recession.

That, by the way, is typical CNBS misdirection too. Words mean things. A "balance sheet recession" is a liars way of saying there is too much debt in the system, not too much inventory.

Of course the fix for a recession caused by too much inventory is to work some of the inventory down.

The fix for a debt recession is to default the excessive debt.

We have done everything in our power at all levels of government to avoid doing exactly that, and it is for this reason that you're going to continue to see the stress levels rise instead of fall, irrespective of the manipulation, until that excessive debt is extracted from the system - one way or another.

Our machinations have hidden an actual, ongoing depression. More than $2 trillion in direct spent support by the government - borrowed beyond tax receipts in the last 18 months, constitutes 14% of annualized GDP. On an annual basis this is about 10%, and a 10% top-to-bottom contraction in GDP is the economist's definition of Depression.

This is math, not pumper jizz games and makes clear what's actually happened. Any person who has lost their job and desperately clawed their head above water on a temporary basis by taking cash advances and using their plastic for a $2 bottle of soda at the local gas station "gets it" - you can play this game for a while, so long as your credit line holds up. You "win" that game if you manage to keep your head above water long enough to find a new job before your debt service requirements exceed your income - even with the new job. You "lose" if your card comes up "Really Declined" before then and are forced into bankruptcy, or if you wind up with so much debt that even finding a new job doesn't allow you to make the payments.

Nations don't quite do things the same way. Instead of "bankruptcy" they are forced into severe austerity measures when they are unable to borrow at attractive rates in the marketplace. If nations go too far down the hole and are unable to implement those measures the political system fails by either peaceful means (elections that sweep out the old ruling class and in a new one) or violent (mass civil unrest, revolt or war.)

So far that has not happened. But the machinations of The Fed have been met lockstep by Congress, which has absorbed and subsumed every penny of credit that The Fed has extended, neutering the ability of The Fed to stimulate the economy, and instead of stimulating the economy with its programs Congress has instead propped up failed businesses, effectively burning the money instead of putting it to work.

AIG is symptomatic of the fraud-laced financial disease in our nation - a disease that will soon enough consume us if we don't excise it from our economy.

Sadly not only does our government refuse to do this but the people of this nation refuse to recognize the bare mathematical underpinnings that are staring them square in the face.

With each passing day we go further into that hole, and at some point the ladder will no longer be tall enough to be able to climb back out.

Disclosure: No position; it is my considered opinion, however, that AIG was a zero two years ago - and still is a zero.

 

 

 

Dennigers little rant over this.

 

Still at least Q4 GDP in the US got revised up, the recovery is here.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Breaking news:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Exclusive:Prudential in talks to buy AIG in Asia

 

Britain's second largest insurer may strike a deal, worth as much as $10bn, within days to catapult its position in the region 1 Comment

 

 

 

Moneymen see trouble ahead for UK economy

 

Figures showing GDP grew by 0.3 per cent during late 2009 ignite concerns the rise in output has been ‘borrowed’ 29 Comments

 

 

 

Lloyds still reeling under HBOS bad debts

 

Impairments at the UK’s largest retail bank rose by almost £9 billion, a legacy of the lending binge orchestrated by HBOS 12 Comments

 

 

 

Plans for new intercity fleet hit the buffers

 

Lord Adonis blames the City for not backing the plan, saying a deal could not be done ahead of the general election 9 Comments

 

 

 

 

House price dip may be good news for economy

 

House prices fell by 1 per cent in February, but Nationwide says that this drop could be good for long-term stability

 

It's flawless, 507.5 carats — and £23m

 

Sale price achieved by Petra Diamonds is a record for a rough stone and comes as the market recovers from lows last year

 

O2 wins as everybody wants a smarter phone

 

Britain’s biggest mobile phone company reported a healthy Christmas quarter, but warned that the good times may not last

William Hill bets on a World Cup windfall

 

The bookie said the event would generate record bets in the UK as it was in the right time zone for television viewers

 

 

Recession is good news for Serco

 

The support services group thinks pressure on government budgets will increase opportunities in new and existing markets

 

 

US economy picks up speed

 

Growth in American GDP in the fourth quarter beat initial estimates, but economists say that the boost may not last

 

Lenders shy back as Greece makes €5bn cash call

 

Doubts surface over willingness of financial markets to take up multibillion-euro bond issue by debt-stricken country

 

 

Bailed-out AIG says it may need more help

 

Continued fallout from global financial crisis sent American International Group $10.9 billion into the red last year

 

 

Iceland risks isolation over failure to repay

 

UK and the Netherlands, which are owed money, are dismayed that revised interest repayment schedule has been rejected

 

 

Bewildering flights of fancy

 

Every second in 2009, Lloyds was writing off another £760 as clients queued up to say they could not honour their debts

 

 

 

RBS, the UK’s potential piggy bank

 

Chief executive believes that the state-controlled bank has reached an "inflexion point" in the way that it is perceived

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

YouTube - Jeff Randall interviews Alistair Darling, part2 (23Feb10)

 

Darling says the British government is paying £40 billion per year in interests, to service the current debt - 4 minutes into this video.

 

Debt is wealth.

 

The more money spent on interest payments leads to a exponential increase in aggregate demand, this is the new economic paradigm.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Rising Threat of Infections Unfazed by Antibiotics

 

By ANDREW POLLACK

 

Some infectious-disease specialists say Gram-negative bacteria could emerge as a bigger threat than MRSA.

 

27gcon_CA0-thumbStandard.jpg

Germany’s Export Prowess Weighs on Euro-Zone

 

By JACK EWING

 

Thousands of small multinational companies have lifted Germany’s economy, but their growth comes at the expense of neighboring countries.

 

 

DealBook

 

Prudential P.L.C. in Talks to Buy A.I.G. Asia Unit

 

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN and MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED 31 minutes ago

 

Prudential P.L.C., the British financial services firm, is in talks with the American International Group over a potential deal for the American firm's giant Asia life insurance operations, people briefed on the matter told DealBook on Saturday.

 

 

Preparing for the Inevitable Bursting Bubble

 

By RON LIEBER

 

There’s bound to be another bubble and another one after that. A way to survive their collapses is to honestly assess your long-term goals.

 

Dodd Proposes Financial Protection Agency

 

By SEWELL CHAN

 

Senator Christopher J. Dodd proposed a new agency to regulate credit cards and other consumer products.

 

A.I.G. Posts Loss of $11 Billion on Higher Claims

 

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

 

The insurance giant attributed most of its $11 billion loss for the year to a fourth-quarter charge taken to reflect that its bailout had been restructured.

 

 

27econ_CA0-thumbStandard.jpg

January Existing Home Sales Drop Despite Tax Credit

 

By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ

 

Sales of existing homes fell 7.2 percent; analysts had expected an increase. Meanwhile, the first revision of G.D.P. for late 2009 shows that the economy grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace.

 

Fannie Loses $16.3 Billion and Asks Treasury for Aid

 

By REUTERS

 

The mortgage company, in telling the government that it needed help, is following the recent lead of Freddie Mac.

 

U.S.-UBS Deal Is Undermined by Swiss Ruling

 

By BLOOMBERG NEWS

 

The ruling, by the Federal Administrative Court in Bern, raises pressure on Swiss lawmakers to approve the data-sharing settlement with the Internal Revenue Service.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

US banks veto 'socialist pay' in secret talks

 

America's top bankers quashed attempts by their British counterparts to persuade the industry to bring down salaries in response to public outrage after the world's governments spent billions rescuing the system.

 

 

 

Agile, smaller enterprises are leading a revival in the industry

 

Excessive focus on big manufacturers is a distraction from the sector’s real innovators

 

 

Hamish McRae: Convention says voters like big spending governments...it's wrong

 

Economic view

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Breaking news:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Europe Union Moves Toward a Bailout of Greece - NYTimes.com

 

BRUSSELS — In a tense game of brinksmanship, the European Union is moving toward the first bailout in the history of its common currency, which is expected to involve loan guarantees from the German and French governments to encourage their banks to buy Greek debt.

 

Even as the negotiations continue, the bloc is insisting that Athens impose further, painful austerity measures, in part to overcome political opposition in Germany to providing aid to the spendthrift Greeks.

 

During a brief visit, due to start Monday, Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, will press for more spending cuts and tax increases in Greece as a precursor to an emerging package of financial support.

 

With no structure in place for dealing with a threatened default within the 16-nation euro zone, officials are making up the rules as they go along. That means that politics — as much as economics — is determining the outcome of the worst crisis in the decade-long lifespan of the euro, creating a kind of phony war in which battles are being fought by leaks and behind-the-scenes briefings.

 

European officials say that the purchase of Greek bonds by state-owned lenders like Germany’s KfW — backed by German government guarantees — is likely to be involved in any solution and has been an option under discussion for three weeks.

 

Other alternatives, including ones that involve more countries in the euro zone, are also being discussed. France’s state-owned bank Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, may be involved, one Greek newspaper reported Saturday, while France’s Finance Minister. Christine Lagarde, told Europe 1 radio on Sunday that there are “a certain number of proposals in the euro zone, involving either private partners or public partners or both.”

 

But Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is not ready to sign off on a rescue, officials said, before Greece has pushed through further cuts.

 

One European official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said that Greek officials appeared to be briefing journalists on the prospect for an big rescue package in the hope of pushing the European Union into a quick solution, or of convincing the markets that help is at hand.

 

“The Germans will not put a euro on the table until there is a credible austerity package,” the official said.

 

Short term I would expect the markets to love this bailout, long term what happens when Spain and Italy come knocking.

 

If Greece gets a bailout how will Ireland react? They've made huge cuts to avoid the need for a bailout and Greece does nothing.

 

It would appear that the French and Germans are going to transfer wealth to Greece? Will the price just be the addition of Turkey to the club or will it end in currency crisis?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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China’s Industrial Heart Facing Acute Shortage of Factory Workers - NYTimes.com

 

GUANGZHOU, China — Just a year after laying off millions of factory workers, China is facing an increasingly acute labor shortage.

 

As American workers struggle with near double-digit unemployment, unskilled factory workers here in China’s industrial heartland are being offered signing bonuses.

 

Factory wages have risen as much as 20 percent in recent months.

 

Telemarketers are turning away potential customers because recruiters have fully booked them to cold-call people and offer them jobs.

 

Some manufacturers, already weeks behind schedule because they can’t find enough workers, are closing down production lines and considering raising prices. Such increases would most likely drive up the prices American consumers pay for all sorts of Chinese-made goods.

Rising wages could also lead to greater inflation in China. In the past, inflation has sown social unrest.

 

The immediate cause of the shortage is that millions of migrant workers who traveled home for the long lunar New Year earlier this month are not returning to the coast. Thanks to a half-trillion-dollar government stimulus program, jobs are being created in the interior.

 

But many economists say the recent global downturn also obscured a longer-term trend: China has drained its once vast reserves of unemployed workers in rural areas and is running out of fresh laborers for its factories.

 

Since China does not release reliable, timely statistics on employment, wages are considered the best barometer of labor shortages. And temp agencies here in Guangzhou raised their rate for factory workers this week to $1.17 an hour, from 95 cents an hour before the new year holiday.

 

The rate was 80 cents an hour two years ago, before the global financial crisis temporarily depressed wages and demand.

 

The dearth of returning migrants set off a desperate scramble this week to recruit the workers who did step off long-haul buses and trains returning from the interior.

 

At a government-run employment center in downtown Guangzhou, employers seeking workers outnumbered job-hunters Thursday afternoon.

 

The China bubble getting closer to imploding?

 

So greater inflation in China not likely to trigger a surge in global inflation then?

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Greece's generous pensions: What makes Germans so very cross about Greece? | The Economist

 

IT IS the pensions, stupid. That, I am coming to conclude, is the cause of the real venom being expressed towards Greece in places like Germany. It is not just that German politicians and newspaper commentators are really cross about the idea of bailing out the profligate Greek government. It is striking how often their annoyance is expressed in angry comparisons of the Greek and German retirement pension rules. Even the news that the Greek government was planning to raise the legal retirement age from 61 to 63 as part of swingeing austerity measures seems to have been like a red rag to a bull in Germany, which not long ago increased its legal age from 65 to 67.

In the thundering words of one editorial from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:

“The Greeks go onto the streets to protest against the increase of the *pension age from 61 to 63. Does that mean that the Germans should in future extend the working age from 67 to 69, so that the Greeks can enjoy their *retirement?”

Or here is a New York Times report:

In Germany, the debate over aid to the Greeks intensified last week when the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe
ruled
that unpopular labor-market reforms, known as Hartz IV, may have gone too far in cutting benefits for the country’s unemployed. That set off a political fight within the German government over jobless assistance, one that was inevitably framed as helping Germans or saving Greeks.

“I can’t explain to a Hartz IV recipient that he won’t get another cent but some Greek gets to retire at 63,” said Michael Fuchs, a deputy leader in Parliament of Mrs. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, in Sunday’s issue of the newspaper Die Welt.

Lots of EU countries have been worrying about their public finances for some years. To date, painful austerity measures imposed in most developed European countries have mostly focussed on extending the legal retirement age: so this is something that is at the front of voters' minds. In unhappy contrast, successive Greek governments have spent years using their pensions system as a main vehicle for bribing Greek voters.

Greek pensions are a thicket of confusion. This is a blog posting, not a print article, so I have only been Googling this rather than making a dozen calls, but according to this conference paper, civil servants in Greece employed before 1992 can retire after 35 years service, if they have reached 58, and retire on 80% of their final basic salary. That certainly sounds a great deal more generous than similar civil service schemes in Germany, which seem to insist on 40 years of service, and set the pensions rates in the low 70% range of final basic salaries.

 

More at the link.

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Pound hit over hung parliament fears

 

The pound was punished today amid worries that plans to slash the UK's soaring deficit could be delayed by political uncertainty.

 

 

 

HSBC boss charity pledge as pre-tax profits fall 24%

 

Michael Geoghegan confirmed he will hand up to £4 million of his bonus payouts to charity.

 

 

Agile, smaller enterprises are leading a revival in the industry

 

Excessive focus on big manufacturers is a distraction from the sector’s real innovators

 

 

Stephen King: Staring at a new age of austerity

 

At this stage, we can't be sure we haven't been looking at a phantom recovery

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

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Share on other sites

Breaking news:

 

 

 

 

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution

 

Debt revenue doesn't equal tax revenue

 

I will pay for my own stupidity but not for the stupidity of others.

 

Remember, profits are privatised, losses are socialised.

That's the 21-century Free Market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

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