The European Union.....In or Out?

[tobyjugg2]

Problem is there will be no treaty changes, just a few 'could's may's and in exceptional circumstances if everbody says OK.

 

As the bankers want either

exit (to protect themselves from EU legislation) but with continus access to EU money markets without the risk

or in but with immunity from EU laws and prosecutions,

we aren't going to win anyway.

Cameron is ONLY looking to the cities interests. The rest is just smoke and mirrors.

[tobyjugg2]

There will be treaty changes, once the current economic climate improves.

 

Sounds like the if/but/maybe wishful thinking I referred Unc.

 

Problem is there will be no treaty changes, just a few 'could's may's and in exceptional circumstances if everybody says OK.

 

 

There will be no significant treaty change except to prevent EU collapse, and I don't mean the fear that it might if the UK leaves.

The UK and others would need to be actively progressing leaving.

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting that people want the universal human rights, but dont want to give them to 'immigrant' workers.

 

Looking at the bigger picture.

The UK leaves:

Scotland breaks from the UK and rejoins the EU

Britain loses a large chunck of it buying power

Britain loses the current Trident option as the waters will become 'Scottish - a confirmed non-nuclear power

Britain pretty much becomes the city of London.

[tobyjugg2]

Dont forget that we have actually got NOTHING.

 

The EU wont be voting on these proposals until AFTER the referendum and could amend them even further from their current feeble state or even throw them all out.

 

The text.

http://www.politico.eu/article/full-text-of-deal-changing-britain-eu-membership-brexit-referendum/

 

 

Camerons speech says he believes we should change/reform it from within.

- This proves we have NO real say and no hope of treaty change.

 

Camerons speech says he believes we would be better in a reformed Europe.

- Quite possibly but this proves that isn't going to happen.

 

 

It seems clear that if we stay in Europe it will be as an increasingly marginalised member.

 

The choice seems to be leave now, and risk the break up of both the EU and the UK depending which occurs first.

or stay in the EU with less and less relevance as a marginalised member.

 

Given Merkels handling of the migrant crisis, I think a break up or major change of the EU is unavoidable.

[tobyjugg2]

Well I noticed that Angela Merkel was implying that they too would be thinking to apply the same formula to child benefits as the UK

 

I think she personally is worried about her position as German citizens are beginning to moan loud and clear about the amount of immigration !

 

|Its more that the benefits 'related to the workers country' is there for everyone, not just the UK and that it is optional to apply it,

 

So Poland could choose not to pay the higher UK rate to UK workers in Poland, and just continue paying any Polish rate or lack thereof.

[tobyjugg2]

A summary

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-eu-reform-deal-scorecard-brexit-eu-referendum-agreement/

 

(and DONT forget that even these feeble proposals could be thrown out by the EU on the EU vote on it AFTER our referendum)

[tobyjugg2]

This is going to be one dirty campaign. I can't see Cameron being able to lead his party as he is currently, whatever the outcome. If he wins to remain in the EU, i suspect a cabinet reshuffle with some kicked out for campaigning to leave the EU. If Cameron looses and the UK is to leave the EU, the Tories will try to get rid of Cameron with a leadership contest. They will want someone against EU to be negotiating exit. At this point the government may collapse, as many pro EU Tory backbenchers either resign as MP's or choose to sit as independents. There could then be an early general election.

 

Cameron has clearly said that he wont be leader again.

 

I find it strange that the news channels are saying that Boris choosing the out campaign has influenced a large amount of people to lean toward the out option.

 

WT Flip?

Why?

 

Whatever Boris goes for purely on behalf of his political ambitions (primarily) and his City buddies who would fund them (secondarily) should make everyone other than the Russian and South American crime Lords who own half of London and the Financiers who manage their money vote the opposite in my view.

[tobyjugg2]

Apparently EU exit rules allow 2 years as a set amount of time, with further time allowed subject to agreement with all other countries. Cameron would have to step down anyway by September 2018 to allow a new Tory PM enough time ahead of a 2020 election. A Brexit vote would probably mean Cameron resigning as Tory leader soon after but staying on as caretaker PM until the party chose a new leader. But it is possible that the Tory party might fall apart still split on Europe and a general election might follow within a year.

 

As for Boris, he is apparently facing investigations into various things as London Mayor. I can't see him taking active roles in the EU campaign or Tory party.

 

Yes.

Regarding Boris - my point exactly

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2014/12/02/boris-johnson-refuses-to-face-investigation-into-land-deal

 

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2014/11/20/channel-four-allegations-reveal-a-darker-side-to-boris-johns

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/5614693/Boris-Johnson-aide-could-face-police-investigation-over-credit-card-claims.html

[tobyjugg2]

If any of these issues were of concern, how come we didnt hear about them previously ?

 

I have a slightly different perspective on this.

 

Why does it take a 'political advantage' on some 'important persons' part before this sort of dealings are highlighted?

[tobyjugg2]

Even the voice which most people trust (unlike Boreis) is not going into his usual detail about why he is leaning toward an in vote

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/24/martin-lewis-eu-referendum-expert_n_9306736.html?ir=UK+Politics

[tobyjugg2]

A debate from both sides but giving factual evidence, not speculation would give the public some ideas of where to stand. The problem with politics is that all we minions get is what they (the powers that be) want us to see, not what is important.

 

Exactly

Like the leaked document on Tusks opinion of the renegotiation status.

Keep it secret until/unless there is some political gain from releasing it and go berserk (in parliamentary terms) should anyone dare to release it to the unworthy plebs (err populace/voters)

[tobyjugg2]

The PM has already started his Q&A 'tour', NI, E.Anglia...whats his itinerary, could attend if local/open?

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/cameron-visits-bushmills-and-dairy-farm-near-ahoghill-1-7233997

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3469580/Shocked-David-Cameron-forced-pause-EU-Q-students-girl-collapses-audience.html

 

 

Dunno but the BBC has this

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

 

Note that the only REAL concession (doesn't need the EU to OK it) is :

Protection for the City of London - Safeguards for Britain's large financial services industry to prevent eurozone regulations being imposed on it

[tobyjugg2]

Cameron hypnotises the audience with a beam of light coming from his forehead. Rumours are that Samantha spends 2 hours every night shining his forehead. Camerons security team have to wear dark sunglasses to avoid being dazzled in the mornings.

 

Must be why Burnham uses so much dark eyeliner and mascara - natural sunglasses

[tobyjugg2]

So this is a call for anyone to advise me or anyone else how do I directly question David Cameron in the build up to the EU referendum..

 

Become a member of the Tory front bench, - strike that, not good enough

 

- become a CEO of a major financial institution and just tell him what you want at the lodge meetings.

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting.What could this possibly lead to.

Who offered this deal.

MIGRATION TIMEBOMB: Europe braced for 'UNCOUNTABLE influx' as Turkey wins visa-free travel

Officials in Brussels offered Turkey £2.3 billion and visa-free travel if it clamps down on the number of refugees making their way into Europe through its borders.

 

But today a prominent German politician warned EU leaders may have robbed Peter to pay Paul, shutting off one influx but opening up the continent to 80 million Turkish citizens.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/648922/migrant-crisis-Europe-braced-uncountable-influx-Turkey-visa-free-travel

 

 

Yes.

This is the EU desperately resisting allowing Turkey to become a member of the EU while still trying to get Turkey to control the migrants coming through.

 

Even more reason for an out vote.

 

Remember Germany told all these illegal migrants they are welcome despite EU rules and law.

then continues to try to tell all the rest of the EU that they have to take their share (the ones Germany doesn't want who aren't employable professionals and wont get German citizenship)

[tobyjugg2]

Yes.

This is the EU desperately resisting allowing Turkey to become a member of the EU while still trying to get Turkey to control the migrants coming through.

 

Even more reason for an out vote.

 

Remember Germany told all these illegal migrants they are welcome despite EU rules and law.

then continues to try to tell all the rest of the EU that they have to take their share (the ones Germany doesn't want who aren't employable professionals and wont get German citizenship)

 

and strangely NATO and US/UK politicians are saying that Assad and the Russians are weaponising migration when I think anyone who looks can see its Turkey doing exactly that

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3471729/NATO-commander-says-Russia-Syria-using-migrant-crisis-weapon.html

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/623379/EU-migrant-crisis-Turkey-Britain-refugees

[tobyjugg2]

Proposals to return illegal migrants to Turkey

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/11/nato-launches-naval-patrols-to-return-migrants-to-turkey

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/netherlands-plan-ferry-refugees-turkey-160128170612335.html

 

http://www.ekathimerini.com/206547/article/ekathimerini/news/turkey-says-proposing-migrant-return-deals-with-14-countries

[tobyjugg2]

I have followed these shenanigans over the past few days and these come to mind.

 

The bosses of Rolls Royce spell out the risks of a Brexit to their employees. Rolls Royce is owned by BMW

 

Out campaigners refused access to government papers. What have the pro Europe brigade got to hide?

 

France now saying they will stop allowing Britain to do passport checks in Calais. Let's not forget that the French have a passport control in England.

 

As it stands, I am still 50/50 and when the scaremongerers start spouting the risks of leaving, I tend to sway towards the out campaign. I have neither seen nor heard anything promoted by the Europhiles that hasn't been debunked by the Eurosceptics.

 

I have received only one publication through my letterbox so far and that was for the Pro's. Nothing whatsoever from the Anti's

 

add to that that the Bankers are all in the UK not primarily to benefit from trade in the EU, but to benefit from the UK's protection of them from EU regulations (like pay limits) while still allowing them to trade with the EU at the UK taxpayers risk.

 

It is the only real concession Cameron got - protection for the city of London financial institutions.

[tobyjugg2]

Those who are 50/50 on the referendum should think carefully about risk.

 

The main risk is an economic heart attack affecting the UK and world markets for many years. Brexit could be the heart attack that leads to unintended consequences, with the collapse of the Euro and EU, pound sterling going on a rollercoaster ride, stock market falls, pension fund earnings reduced, changes to UK debt interest.

 

Some ( e.g Mervyn King ) are already predicting another major financial crash, as the Banks have not really recovered since 2008. Also the shadow Banks are carrying massive levels of debt. It is possible the next crash could be worse than 2007/08.

 

Would you vote Brexit, even if you knew there was a big financial risk, that could affect you and your family for years. Is independence from the EU so important and beneficial in the long run to the UK, that it is worth taking the risk ?

 

I broadly agree with all that unclebulgaria, BUT

Being in the EU (or out) will not protect the UK taxpayer from the fallout from these UK based banks, even if theose same banks and financial institutions pay Fanny Adams tax here.

 

Being in the EU will not protect the UK from increasing migration and the vast surge that WILL occur as Turkey gets its way. What worth building 156,000 houses a year (2015 figures) when net migration is 300,000+ a year and rising even now.

http://www.nhbc.co.uk/NewsandComment/UKnewhouse-buildingstatistics/Year2015/

 

The pound may fall, but so will the euro.

 

Stock markets falling will affect pensions only 'on paper' and for those who take their pensions during the collapse - just as is always the case, and financial fall deflation is as likely to help the poorest in cheaper essentials.

 

Big businesses who pay nothing in tax while enjoying UK protection from EU regulation want us to stay in, but small businesses more want the preferentially treated big businesses out of their matkets.

Perhaps that would cause some price rises, perhaps even more than the falls which would result, but the tax and income would remain in the UK

 

 

We cant really do much about the financial institutions, so migration is THE big issue.

[tobyjugg2]

If independent economists start to issue warnings, we would be mad to ignore.

 

As long as they were informed warnings, Now that would be notable. Still waiting.

[tobyjugg2]

and German figures released report that only 8% of migrants that have been there a year are in employment (most with state controlled/infuenced industries)

 

Source France24 news.

 

 

On another related note, proposals being presented which will 'allow shengen open borders to be reintroduced by the end of the year'

[tobyjugg2]

To reinforce what we already know that freedom of speech no longer exists,

 

BCC boss suspended over EU referendum comments

 

John Longworth told the business group's annual conference on Thursday that the UK's long-term prospects could be "brighter" outside the EU.

 

He later said he thought Britain would be "better off" after leaving.

 

ooops - misread again

 

Must get my observation back in gear.

 

"In his speech, Mr Longworth had described the referendum as a choice between the "devil and the deep blue sea". One option was staying in an "essentially unreformed EU", with the other being the uncertainty of leaving, he told the conference."

[tobyjugg2]

and the Tory infighting brings out some figures,

Rather than the 250,000 or even 330,000 net immigrants claimed,

 

The number of new national insurance numbers issued to immigrants (to allow them to work and gain benefits) last year was actually well over 600,000.

 

and that 600,000 new NI numbers is a real figure, not some fuddled statistics.

[tobyjugg2]

You are not comparing like with like. Net migration is exactly that: ins - outs

Also we do not know who these migrant figures include.

 

You are correct, but what is included as migration in and out is open to interpretation (and are reported as estimates).

New NI numbers is the actual number of new migrant slots in the employment.benefits system. I cant yet find any figures for NI numbers removed.

[tobyjugg2]

it was interesting that after the PM's meet with the French, they then quickly mentioned the issue of migrants at calais being allowed to britain shld we leave....

am i being cynical, or was that quite calculated given the sensitive migrant issue?

 

Politicians politicking

 

Some expansion on the NI stats which is clearer than most:

http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/03/02/immigration-statistics-whats-behind-the-numbers-row/

 

 

"Jonathan Portes, principal research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, filed a freedom of information request last year in a bid to extract Whitehall figures on how many NI numbers issued to EU migrants are “active” – showing recent tax or benefits payments. This data could potentially prove that far more NI numbers are being issued than actually used, which would confirm that eurosceptics’ fears about the scale of EU migration are overblown.

 

The government does hold this data, but Mr Portes’ request for it to be published was refused by HMRC late last year on the grounds that it would be “unhelpful” to Mr Cameron’s renegotiation."