The European Union.....In or Out?

[unclebulgaria67]

It is looking pretty likely there will be a general election, before any Brexit takes place under the 2 year chapter 50 rule.

 

It is quite possible a pro EU Labour party under a new leader wins the election and cancels the Brexit process. Labour MP's have already started the process of getting rid of Corbyn.

 

Here is what i think will happen.

 

Theresa May will be Tory leader/PM sometime in October 2016

 

Corbyn will be replaced as Labour leader by Yvette Cooper by October 2016. Labour will state their policy is to remain in the EU and to oppose in Parliament any changes the government tries to make in regard to EU status. In both HOC and Lords there is a pro EU majority, so it is possible they may stop or delay necessary legislation.

 

The economic crisis will continue with the Pound falling and continued announcement of job losses, as business looks to reduce risk.

 

There will be an emergency budget before November 2016, with tax increases and spending cuts made.

 

By April 2017, there will be a vote of no confidence in parliament which will lead to an early election.

 

If by the election date enough people have changed their minds on the EU, Labour will win the election.

[unclebulgaria67]

This Skynews article is worth reading as it clarifies the position.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1717492/does-a-leave-vote-definitely-mean-a-brexit

[unclebulgaria67]

This article is a must read on Brexit, globalisation and world politics.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/britains-brexit-just-killed-globalisation-as-we-know-it-20160626-gps0js.html

 

What is for sure, is that world politics is in a pretty poor state and much of this is to do with economics which have gone wrong over the last 40 years. Reagan/Thatcher encouraged casino capitalism and a culture of global corporations being encouraged with tax loopholes, so they could expand to every part of the globe. This is part of the reason for Brexit, as Brussels was seen as part of this globalised agenda, where they actively encouraged corporations to shift their profits around to avoid tax. TTIP was to be about allowing US companies easier access to EU markets, with EU companies having easier access to US market. I am not sure TTIP is going to happen now, which would not be a bad thing, as it would have led to agressive US lawyers pursuing US corporate interests.

 

People might think it is a good idea to vote for change, but if the uncertainty causes bad consequences, they have to accept that as well.

[unclebulgaria67]

but again in a democracy you have a right to vote or NOT vote also for all the mp's who are saying we will vote against i wonder if you remember you are elected by the will of the people not for your own personal beliefs and you would be inacting a coup against the people of this country .

 

Also when you have tony blair putting his two pennies worth in i know i have made the right decision

 

When the Scottish independence referendum bill was passed by parliament, the result was made to be binding on parliament, so a leave vote would have meant Scotland exiting the UK. With the EU referendum bill the government deliberately did not make it binding because they wanted to see what happened in the event of a leave vote. If the economic damage looked like being so bad, they could veto the result. This could still happen.

 

We will see what happens, but there is a good chance the UK remains part of the EU, if the EU still exists in a few years time. There is a chance of political change in Europe, where the EU is reduced to being less powerful and more powers are handed back to countries parliaments.

[unclebulgaria67]

Good article explaining whether Brexit can be stopped.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/world/can-brexit-be-overturned-what-brits-are-asking-each-other-20160625-gprz3u.html

[unclebulgaria67]

Boris Johnson is saying something that many leave voters will disagree with i.e right of free movement will most likely continue as part of the new arrangement with the EU.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36637037

 

This is the problem. The leave campaigners did not hold the same views about the UK after Brexit. This is the reason the referendum cannot be binding on parliament, because people did not know what they were voting for. Once the discussions take place about the way forward, there will be arguments between all the various sides. You cannot trigger article 50, when you do not have a government backed by parliament who are authorised to start negotiations with the EU.

 

Cameron wanted to solve his parties problems with the EU, but all he has done is thow a grenade and then decided to walk away from the rebuilding work. He has ended up in a mess that should have been thought about.

[unclebulgaria67]

Osborne has stated on LBC radio that he respects the result of the EU referendum..

 

I respect people who believe in Father Christmas, but it does not mean i will do anything with their Christmas list when they place it by their chimney.

 

When politicians say they respect something, it is code for meaning they will take it into account. The referendum is not binding on politicians to lead the UK out of the EU whatever the consequences.

[unclebulgaria67]

Corbyn will go within weeks, because he will never be able to obtain support of the parliamentary Labour party. There will be a leaders contest and as soon as he realises it is pointless him winning again, he would withdraw. He just does not have the skills to be leader of a party and has views which clash with most of English voters.

[unclebulgaria67]

The current financial system will be bust within 10 years, as it does not work. One of the only good things to come from Brexit, is that some of the investment Banks will move from London and therefore although tax will be lost, there will be slightly less risk exposure.

 

If you look at most of the various online economic news media about the condition of the world economy and individual countries, there is not a lot of good news about. With the austerity that has been followed by many countries and the struggle with globalisation, there is no strategy to ensure that there is sustainable growth to deliver a decent standard of living to most people. If you don't solve this problem, you end up with lost generations of people who never enjoy what their parents enjoyed. One of the reasons that Donald Trump might win is that he believes America must look after its own interests and he is suggesting policies that would be very unpopular outside of America. I.e tax policy that make US manufacturing much more attractive and discourage exporting jobs abroad.

 

If you look on Youtube, you will see a large number of videos which explain that Brexit might just be part of a rebellion by people against the globalisation agenda where you have polititicians and corporations working to a strategy that is not helpful to many people. I am not convinced by some of the conspiracies or that Brexit is a good idea, but i can see the point that many feel very frustrated by government and instituitons they belong to.

 

This is mostly to do with the failed economic system and inability of governments to deliver better standards of living to most people. People migrate often because of economic failure and not just war or civil unrest. The EU should have been addressing important issues, rather than get bogged down in politics of austerity, where it is all about cutting back, rather than trying to gain economic growth.

 

The Tory/coalition government have been part of the problem and not the solution. They talked up austerity and in fact have been less austere with budgets than most other EU countries. The general negative mood music with people looking to attach blame to something has led to Brexit, rather than the EU as an instituition. People are unhappy about immigration, housing, lack of school place choice, access to healthcare etc. But most of this is down to UK government to resolve, as they have the power. They blame the EU as a scapegoat and then expect to win a referendum on remaining in the EU, after complaining about them for years. This is what happens when you get a bunch of younger career politicians without the wisdom of the older statesman politicians we once had.

 

End of rant. Better to get it off your chest.