The European Union.....In or Out?

[unclebulgaria67]

Serious question - What happens if the outcome of the referendum is a virtual draw ? If the polls are accurate, in terms of percentages, the result might be 50/50 or 51/49 either way.

 

If the result does not give a clear win to leave the EU, i very much doubt government or parliament will be able to proceed to start negotiation to leave the EU or pass any required legislation. This will leave Brexiters very unhappy and those Tories currently plotting against Cameron will either join UKIP or try to replace Cameron.

 

I am completely fed up with the EU debate, but few are talking about what happens after the referendum result. I very much doubt the referendum will resolve tensions over Europe and splits in the Tory party.

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

The referendum result is not binding on government or parliament. There is not a majority in parliament in favour of the UK leaving the EU. Both the House of Commons and Lords might not back any government legislation regarding implementing EU withdrawal.

 

A Brexit win would lead to a new Tory leader/PM, a vote of no confidence in parliament and an election in 2017. The fixed term parliament act does not prevent a government moving a vote of no confidence and going for an early election. Given that Corbyn is Labour leader, i think any new Tory PM would fancy a bigger majority government.

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

There is a problem you allude to, which is that people on the vote 'leave' side want different things. Some including Boris want to use a leave vote to renegotiate membership and hold a further referendum. There are others who simply wish to leave the EU and are not bothered about the exit negotiations with the EU, believing that the EU will agree a deal that gives most current membership benefits, without any conditions, because of the value of EU exports to the UK.

 

Brexit is a gamble because no one can predict what will happen. If the value of the pound drops, it will be bad for the UK, because we import more than we export. Most economists think that the pound will drop in value and this is evidenced by a drop just because Brexit took a lead in polls.

 

If the UK votes to remain narrowly, it gives Cameron a chance to negotiate further EU reform, because he can say to other leaders that the UK public want reform given how narrow his win to remain was. Given the state of the EU economies and various issues being faced, it is pretty likely there will be demand for significant reforms in other countries.

[unclebulgaria67]

I thought The PM was planning his own exit in 2017. In that case won't be a vote of no confidence and he won't be in power to block new implementations.

 

With regards to Ireland it would need border control.

 

No, Cameron has not stated when he would go. An unknown number of Tory MP's want Cameron to resign after a Brexit vote. I suspect Cameron would resign and it would be a contest between Boris and Theresa May for new leader/PM. There is no majority in parliament to support necessary changes to implement Brexit. Therefore, i suspect either Boris or Theresa would think about triggering an early election before the boundary review due in 2018 and before Corbyn is dumped by Labour.

 

The situation in regard to borders within Ireland would not require changes.

[unclebulgaria67]

Fletch

 

Agree. Most right wingers pro Brexit are nationalists who seek more power for their own purposes.

 

If there is a significant win for Brexit it means Cameron will be gone and a new PM by the Autumn. Then the problems will really begin, as there is no consensus on the leave side as to what they want to achieve in terms of agreements with the EU, staying part of European Court of Human Rights etc. It will be a complete mess and i suspect some current Tory MP's will become independents with the government losing their majority. Then there will be an early election. If Labour gets rid of Corbyn, then they have a chance of forming the next government before 2020.

[unclebulgaria67]

For those interested, here are details of how the votes will be counted and when the results will be announced.

 

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count

[unclebulgaria67]

The debate within this CAG thread has been quite mild compared to the spats between various politicians, who are supposed to be members of the same political party.

 

Listening to David Mellor on LBC this morning and he thinks that if the country votes for Brexit, that there will be a renegotiation between UK and EU to try to keep the UK within the EU. If Mellor is correct, surely this would mean another referendum based on the renegotiation. Boris Johnson has said as PM this is what he might well do, but Cameron says that if people vote to leave the EU, that is what will happen.

 

Personally, i think this referendum is a mistake as the country is split 50/50 and a narrow win either way is likely to cause a political storm, with a war within the Tory party, a leadership contest and the possibility of an early election. Cameron did not think he would win a majority at the election and therefore he could avoid the referendum under a coalition deal. The winning of a majority will ironically be the cause of Camerons downfall.

[unclebulgaria67]

The key question is what harm has the EU caused to the UK economy and whether the EU is holding back the UK economy ?

 

I don't think the EU has caused any harm and the UK benefits from being part of a block of countries, which will prove to be very important in the years ahead, as the US and China fight it out to be the largest economy.

 

When i look around my local area, there are a large number of companies who operate throughout Europe, because the EU facilitates common rules across Europe, making it much easier to trade. If the UK was not part of the EU and there were lots of different trading arrangements, i am not sure these companies would have invested in UK offices, factories etc.

 

According to Cameron, after 2 years of triggering the relevant EU clause to leave the organisation, the UK would be faced with having to live under World Trade Organisation rules, rather than current EU rules. This will make it very difficult for companies to plan investment, make decisions for their businesses and will therefore affect their employees. If there is uncertainty, we know that investment gets choked off and companies make different decisions.

[unclebulgaria67]

After this referendum, Cameron he is going to find a lot of enemies in his party that really don't like the way he has campaigned for remain and i predict that UKIP might well receive extra support from Tories who move their allegiance. Cameron might loose his majority, with some Tory MP's joining UKIP.

 

This referendum could well make splits in the Tory party permanent and also split the vote in the country with UKIP gaining. SNP lost the independence referendum, but then gained massively at the 2015 election. The same could happen with Cameron winning the referendum vote, but then losing support for his party.

 

Labour really need to sort themselves out, as the next election could be in 2017 or 18, if a vote of non confidence gets passed in parliament. At the moment, Corbyn is unlikely to appeal to many voters in English seats outside of Labour strongholds.

[unclebulgaria67]

Remember that the boundary changes are due in 2018, with equalisation of constituencies to circa 100k voters and reduction in MP's to 600 to be legislated in 2019.. Following this EU campaign infighting within the Tory party, there will be dozens of MP's threatened with losing their seats and the Tories only have a majority of 12. There are apparently about 50 Tory MP's who are extremely unhappy with Cameron and Osborne, who are likely to trigger a leadership contest. Some might jump ship to UKIP. Don't you think that some some MP's might fancy an early general election, before these consituency changes are made.

 

If Brexit wins, Cameron will be gone and Boris Johnson will fight it out with Theresa May to be leader/PM. The Tory party will be in a right mess and finding it very difficult to govern, while trying to negotiate with the EU, while also negotiating trade deals with a large number of countries. Don't rule out a vote of no confidence forcing an early election.

[unclebulgaria67]

No early election, terms are now for a fixed period of five years.

 

If the government loses a vote of no confidence there can be an early election. But as someone said, it is not that straightforward, as there are various hurdles to cross.

 

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/11067/the-not-so-fixed-term-parliaments-act/

[unclebulgaria67]

John Major was correct in his assessment. Some on the Brexit side do have another agenda, which they are keeping quiet about.

 

The NHS would not be able to function without a workforce of Healthcare professionals who originate from all around the world. I would hate to see a situation where the UK started to go down a nationalistic path, where people of different ethnicities start to feel unwelcome and look over the shoulders in fear. You can bet that EDL, BNP supporters will feel emboldened by Brexit and it will trigger nasty scenes in cities and towns around the country.

 

I don't want to live in a country that wants to separate itself off from the world and start to withdraw from various organisations that it has long supported. Some Brexiters want to withdraw from the ECHR as they don't like people having Human Rights which are inconveient to government or businesses.

[unclebulgaria67]

As i have said in a number of posts to this thread, a vote to leave might not be implemented by parliament. A BBC news item confirms this might be the case.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

 

The majority in both the Commons and Lords is pro EU or certainly not in favour of Brexit. Therefore a referendum result to leave might well not be recognised by Parliament in a way that would satisfy many people. If this happens, Cameron would face a leadership contest and some MP's might jump ship to UKIP.

[unclebulgaria67]

Think you make a good point. Older people do tend to think about the past and of Great Britain. UK punches above its weight mostly due to the City of London and the history of being central hub in the world, because of once being an empire. In the future US and China will fight it out for global dominance which is why the US are looking to do trade deals with the EU and Asia//Pacific countries excluding China. If the UK leaves the EU, it will weaken the position of the UK.

[unclebulgaria67]

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

 

Money is already leaving the UK ahead of the referendum. If the UK votes for Brexit, there will be a massive hit on the financial markets, which might go on for sometime.

[unclebulgaria67]

Tobyjugg

 

Financially Brexit does not make any sense, unless there are plans to turn the UK into a tax haven, where they encourage the very rich to reside and invest here ( more than now). The City of London is set free to compete with all of the global tax avoidance areas to try to become the biggest financial hub, with less regulation on Banks, Hedge Funds etc. The downside is the huge risk that comes with it and other countries stopping it happening, with sanctions and offering their own incentives to investors.

 

I can understand the sovereignty issue, with people preferring power to be vested with our own democratically elected politicians, but in reality most of the EU laws/rules we accept currently are negotiated by UK officials, sactioned by UK government, then passed by our UK parliament. Even after Brexit as being part of a common market, i fully expect a UK parliament to be implementing rules decided in Brussels. The UK just won't have the same influence on the EU.

 

I am confused why some people are voting for Brexit when they have no clear idea what they are voting for. The leave campaign have not come forward with a vision of what the UK would be like in 10 or 20 years time. It would also mean a change in government, as Cameron/Osborne would not be trusted by Brexiters to negotiate with the EU.

[unclebulgaria67]

More 'unsubstantiated' nonsense.

 

Don't think it is nonsense.

 

Someone recently said that the UK was the most corrupt country in the world, with a blindeye turned to transactions carried out by UK Banks. I will try to find you a link.

 

But think about the huge fines US regulators have imposed on UK Banks, LIBOR rate fixing etc. It makes you think.

 

Edit. Link added

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/when-a-mafia-expert-tells-us-britain-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-world-its-time-to-start-a7057686.html

[unclebulgaria67]

It may well not be nonsense UB, but it is not up to you to find links but the poster.

 

You do seem to enjoy this fun game.

 

Are you related to Piers Morgan ? He winds people up most days and they always fall for it.

[unclebulgaria67]

Senior Tory defects from leave to the remain campaign.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36485464

 

For anyone undecided how they will vote or may change their mind, it is worth watching the video in the link

[unclebulgaria67]

When i see pictues of English football hooligans, it just makes me think of a significant minority of idiots who are very likely to vote for Brexit because they don't like foreigners. These are the type of people who complain about all these immigrants coming into the country, but then enjoy a late night curry after getting beered up. These are the type who go on holiday to the Costas wearing their Union Jack clothing and only eating from British pubs/restaurants because they don't like all the foreign muck.

 

We have all met these type of people and they are embarrasing to Britain. I do hope that when people vote, they think of all the idiots that they will be encouraging to believe they are somehow superior because they are English. Do people really wish to go down the path of nationalism again, when it has caused so much pain in the past ?

[unclebulgaria67]

fletch, I think there has already been a major lurch to the right within Europe.

 

I also notice there have been other EU member states mumbling about leaving the "club". IMHO, some of them are just waiting to see what happens with our referendum before their own citizens start to rise up and demand exit !

 

Yes there has been a lurch to the right.

 

We should not be taking Brexit too casually, as if it would not cause too much difficulty to most people in the UK. There are several reasons why people should think carefully before casting their votes.

 

Firstly there is a security issue that after Brexit the UK would not be closing its borders and stopping people who are a threat to the UK coming here. The right of free movement for EU passport holders would be a negotiating point and it is quite likely this right would continue as part of free market access. If Brexit causes political instability in Europe at a time when we should be working together across Europe, then that cannot be a good thing.

 

Secondly there is the economic situation with instability causing havoc in the finance markets, which may well have an effect on currency values and investments. In regard to currency, if the pounds value falls, we will see a rise in the costs of goods, as the UK imports way more than it exports. In regard to investments, this could well have a bad effect on peoples pensions and if they are near retirement affect them for years to come.

 

Thirdly, in terms of trade, it will take years to negotiate all of the various trade deals. If Cameron or his successor triggers the EU treaty clause to start exit, after 2 years it will mean the UK is subject to WTO trade rules. Under WTO rules, there are varying levels of tariffs that would apply to UK trade with the EU. If you work for any company that buys in goods or trades with the EU, this will cause massive problems. Also if you are a household consumer of goods, you could see significant price increases in the cost of most things you buy. Particulary for pensioners on fixed incomes, this could have massive affect on their standard of living,

 

You might not like the EU, as not many are fans, but are you really willing to gamble knowing that most experts are warning you of problems such as i have described above. Yes experts get it wrong, but on occasions they do prove to be right. Is the EU so bad, that it is worth the risk of throwing away what has been achieved over decades ? Staying in means, you can work across Europe to deal with the issues.

[unclebulgaria67]

I think the black hole in the he UK finances are much more frightening than we know and that's why it's important we stay in.

 

That is true. If you add on personal debts to government debt and the huge liabilities Banks have the UK is very vulnerable.

[unclebulgaria67]

Might be a coincidence, but my local Spar shop has been giving away free copies of The Sun since the start of this EU referendum campaign. They are giving away large numbers of papers every day of the week.

 

I just wonder whether The Sun is doing this around the country, so they can provide their anti EU news, as people are not buying the paper or subscribing to their online site.

[unclebulgaria67]

IMHO, it will make no difference whether we are in or out.

 

 

Whatever problems that follow the referendum will be laid at the feet of the other side.

 

 

There are already rumblings of another crash and I see that there are threats of falling house prices. The USA are panicking in advance of a decision by the UK because for some reason that escapes me - a decision to exit will mean they cant raise their interest rates - why ?

 

 

So if we exit - the remain campaign will say we told you so when all these dire warnings of doom and gloom happen (if they happen) and vice versa if we remain and we will be seen as mugs and Europe will tie us in to even more things that the UK are wanting to get shot of. What next if we remain - proving our alliance to Europe by taking on the Euro and getting shot of sterling ?

 

I agree to a certain extent, but if we remain, this does not mean that there will not be any further reforms of the EU. At the moment, there are some movements in Europe towards changes in government positions on treaty changes, because there is a fragmentation of party politics taking place. In Germany, it is looking like Angela Merkel could lose power and Hollande is in trouble in France. I think there have been problems in most EU countries.

 

Many countries including the UK have a requirement to hold referendums, if there is a new EU treaty or significant changes are made to membership terms. There is a good chance of there being a need to hold a referendum within the next 5 or 10 years. If the UK thinks this current referendum is their only chance, they might vote out and then find they are either out of the EU or in Brexit negotiations, unable to have any influence on EU reforms. Meanwhile the financial markets have gone into meltdown, because of all the uncertainty.

 

Why vote out now and possibly be the cause of any financial crisis that might follow ? The City of London is still a main earner of UK revenues and if there is an economic shock to the system, we might all be paying again. London is still host to a large number of Banks from all around the world and the risk is greater as a result. We still have not paid off the cost of the 07/08 Banking crash.

[unclebulgaria67]

UK population 1975 * 56.2mil Australia 13.8mil

 

UK population 2016 * 65.1 mil Australia 24.3mil

 

Interesting how the growth is similar.

 

That is because it is bloomin obvious. The more people you have in world population, the more it will grow in most countries. You need immigration, because you need to cope with expansion e.g more Doctors, Nurses, Care workers, service Engineers etc.

 

The biggest threat to human populations is the creation of super intelligent robot/computer technology, which will replace many jobs in factories/warehouses within 20 years. As retail moves increasingly online, with fulfilment done in big warehouses by new technology, the more jobs will not be needed. In terms of high tech, these jobs will mainly be in China. China will continue to invest huge sums in new technology. Why do i mention new Technology ? People will migrate while there is a need for labour, to try to earn a living, but as time goes by, there will be less need for manual labour and therefore with few jobs to migrate for, you should see migration reduce.

 

In regard to Australia, they have the same issues, with many Aussies not liking so many Asians coming to live there. If you get on a train in parts of Sydney you will see mainly Asians reading newspapers from China etc. I have heard Aussies saying that when selling their homes they would try avoid selling their homes to Chinese, as they are taking over neighbourhoods. And Austraian cities have problems with traffic jams and stupidly high property prices. People on average incomes can't afford to live near Sydney and they spend over an hour commuting from outside the city.