The European Union.....In or Out?

[unclebulgaria67]

The big danger of Brexit is that it starts another recession in Europe. The markets would react very badly to an out vote. The EU would be in a mess. Other countries might also want to vote to leave the EU. There is then the possibility of the EURO being stopped, with countries returning to their own currencies.

 

Not sure it is worth the risk. EU needs reforming, but better to do it by negotiation. Remember that Germans are also not happy about many EU aspects, as are French people etc. They need to discuss a new treaty, which goes back to what the EEC originally was before they went down the federal union route.

 

Even if UK left EU, we would have to implement 80% of EU law and pay in about the same as now. It would be similar to what happens with Norway.

 

Europe will recover from its current situation, but only if countries work together. The big problem facing the world is having too many humans for the current/future world. By 2025 it is estimated that about a third of jobs will be replaced by new technology. This is not just a European issue, but will hit countries worldwide. If you look through newspapers in other countries they are experiencing very similar issues. The UK would be mad to cut itself off from the EU, believing it offers any solution to immigration or any other perceived problems.

[unclebulgaria67]

Problem is there will be no treaty changes, just a few 'could's may's and in exceptional circumstances if everbody says OK.

 

As the bankers want either

exit (to protect themselves from EU legislation) but with continus access to EU money markets without the risk

or in but with immunity from EU laws and prosecutions,

we aren't going to win anyway.

Cameron is ONLY looking to the cities interests. The rest is just smoke and mirrors.

 

There will be treaty changes, once the current economic climate improves. Spain is recovering, as is Italy and many other countries. But it is going to take years. Given the technology changes we will see, countries will have to change their economies anyway, as they need to find enough work for as many as possible. They just won't be able to borrow for big infrastructure works.

 

Even if public vote Brexit, i suspect UK will still be members of EU in 2020. It will take years to negotiate exit from EU and in that time there may be another referendum on improved membership terms.

[unclebulgaria67]

We wouldn't have to do anything.

With a strong leadership we could leave the EU and never pay a penny to them, refuse to implement all of their pointless rules (remember the standard for bananas curvature?) and decide who comes in and who stays out.

At the moment a murderer on bail can come and go within Europe without anyone checking.

 

I think even Farage says UK will still have to pay in and accept a lot of EU rules. All he has said is that UK would have to negotiate a deal and try not to get stitched up like Norway, because UK is a more important trading nation.

 

The EU has generally been good for the UK, as many rules protecting consumers and workers would never have been introduced by UK governments.

[unclebulgaria67]

What hasn't even been mentioned but should have been is the Human Rights Act.

 

In my (very humble) opinion, if a person from overseas burgles a house and gets sentenced, the homeowner has suffered a breach of their article 8 rights. The offender (IMO) should not be able to use that aspect of the HRA to claim a right to stay in this country

 

You breach a right, you lose the equivalent.

 

Other countries manage to stay within Human Rights law and deport foreign criminals. I seem to France having a problem with one individual. They were put in front of a Judge and within a few hours they were on a plane out of the country.

 

The problems that the UK has are nothing to do with EU or ECHR. On many cases where cases have been brought before ECHR, the Judges have said that the UK parliament needs to change their legislation so it makes the position totally clear. You cannot blame human rights laws for British politicians being rubbish at passing legislation that is clear and cannot be subject to interpretation which was not intended.

[unclebulgaria67]

This is going to be one dirty campaign. I can't see Cameron being able to lead his party as he is currently, whatever the outcome. If he wins to remain in the EU, i suspect a cabinet reshuffle with some kicked out for campaigning to leave the EU. If Cameron looses and the UK is to leave the EU, the Tories will try to get rid of Cameron with a leadership contest. They will want someone against EU to be negotiating exit. At this point the government may collapse, as many pro EU Tory backbenchers either resign as MP's or choose to sit as independents. There could then be an early general election.

[unclebulgaria67]

Cameron has clearly said that he wont be leader again.

 

I find it strange that the news channels are saying that Boris choosing the out campaign has influenced a large amount of people to lean toward the out option.

 

WT Flip?

Why?

 

Whatever Boris goes for purely on behalf of his political ambitions (primarily) and his City buddies who would fund them (secondarily) should make everyone other than the Russian and South American crime Lords who own half of London and the Financiers who manage their money vote the opposite in my view.

 

Apparently EU exit rules allow 2 years as a set amount of time, with further time allowed subject to agreement with all other countries. Cameron would have to step down anyway by September 2018 to allow a new Tory PM enough time ahead of a 2020 election. A Brexit vote would probably mean Cameron resigning as Tory leader soon after but staying on as caretaker PM until the party chose a new leader. But it is possible that the Tory party might fall apart still split on Europe and a general election might follow within a year.

 

As for Boris, he is apparently facing investigations into various things as London Mayor. I can't see him taking active roles in the EU campaign or Tory party.

[unclebulgaria67]

I am sorry to hear/see this is going to be a dirty tricks campaign.

 

If any of these issues were of concern, how come we didnt hear about them previously ?

 

I was also very surprised to see David Cameron slinging mud in the HoC.

 

This type of campaigning should be left to the Liberals and Labour.. they are far better at shovelling sh*T

 

Most politicians are involved in some dirty campaigns, some more than others.

 

People just do not realise they are being manipulated.

 

Look at the Daily Mail over recent months. Before Prince William made a speech about international cooperation, which was interpreted as pro EU, the Mail mostly had articles about his good work. Since the speech there have been articles about him not being committed to either Air Ambulance work or work as a Royal. The mail knows many people like the Royal family and might agree with them, so they start having a go, if they think they are acting against the Mails political interests.

 

Some of the media and some very wealthy people connected to politicians believe that the UK free from EU political and economic shackles can become some sort of tax haven. Also they might think that the UK might not have to comply with various EU rules which they think affects them. Some of these rules regard competition policy, tax rules, EU arrest warrants etc. Some of the very rich with business/finance interests across EU and worldwide might think that the UK treasury is much easier to deal with, than have EU rules requiring more scrutiny.

 

If people vote for Brexit, they will see the gradual erosion of worker and consumer rights. The City of London financial centre will be back to work with the same bad risks being taken and the UK economy will again become too reliant on financial services.

 

David Cameron is actually for once standing up for the ordinary people in the country and mostly confirming the facts. Leaving the EU might not help control migration problems and might make it worse, as it could take 2 years or more, before any exit date is known. Also we don't know what Brexit means for the UK. It is a leap into the dark.

[unclebulgaria67]

Cameron hypnotises the audience with a beam of light coming from his forehead. Rumours are that Samantha spends 2 hours every night shining his forehead. Camerons security team have to wear dark sunglasses to avoid being dazzled in the mornings.

[unclebulgaria67]

Those who are 50/50 on the referendum should think carefully about risk.

 

The main risk is an economic heart attack affecting the UK and world markets for many years. Brexit could be the heart attack that leads to unintended consequences, with the collapse of the Euro and EU, pound sterling going on a rollercoaster ride, stock market falls, pension fund earnings reduced, changes to UK debt interest.

 

Some ( e.g Mervyn King ) are already predicting another major financial crash, as the Banks have not really recovered since 2008. Also the shadow Banks are carrying massive levels of debt. It is possible the next crash could be worse than 2007/08.

 

Would you vote Brexit, even if you knew there was a big financial risk, that could affect you and your family for years. Is independence from the EU so important and beneficial in the long run to the UK, that it is worth taking the risk ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Why vote Brexit to trigger a possible heart attack ?

 

Surely, it is up to the government to assess risk and recommend to British public what is best ?

 

They are advising people to vote to remain.

 

If independent economists start to issue warnings, we would be mad to ignore.

[unclebulgaria67]

Is it possible to have a fair debate given most newpapers appear to be anti the EU ?

 

Yes people don't believe everything they read and it does not mean they will vote the way newspapers tell them. But quite often the newspapers have a huge influence on the political debate. Broadcast media do cover news stories covered in print media and it then becomes a talking point.

[unclebulgaria67]

I have worked out two things.

 

1) UK is a small island and punches beyond its weight mostly because of history/language. As time goes by, with massive population increases mostly in Asia and Africa, the UK as an independent nation trying to trade with the world is going to be more difficult. It is probably better to be part of an EU trading bloc.

 

2) Migration levels are unlikely to change much following Brexit, because it is highly likely freedom of movement will continue, as part of having full access to the market on a tariff free basis. There is a chance of a sudden influx of people after an out vote, as those interested in coming to the UK might be prompted to make the move. UK citizenship applications from EU mainland citizens living in the UK will increase.

[unclebulgaria67]

Very thought provoking CB.

 

The way i look at it is, that migration has been happening forever. It will continue forever, whether people like it or not.

 

The worlds population has trebled since world war 2 and will hit 10.5 billion by 2050.

 

Donald Trump wants to build a new wall across the Mexican border. It looks like the EU will agree to build a border surrounding the EU to stop migration. Turkey is being asked to take migrants back and ships are being sent to stop the boats crossing to Greece. Australia deports migrants back to the country of origin straightaway or if not possible to offshore islands to be kept in refugee sites.

 

Migration will get worse because of climate conditions, water and food shortage. Even within western countries there is significant migration of citizens looking for work and affordable housing. In the US, there are apparently several million living life on the road, sleeping in hostels, cars, with the number of charity food outlets increasing all the time. I have seen documentaries showing American families sleeping in charity run hostels, community halls, receiving free meals.

 

Cameron picked a very bad time for a referendum, because quite a lot will vote purely based on migration and looking to close the borders. This probably will not happen, with borders staying fully open to EU citizens, as voting Brexit is unlikely to change things.

[unclebulgaria67]

Trading bloc yes. That is what we were taken into, it is now our Government setting our laws, rules and regulations.

 

See, Hitler is still alive but he now wears nothing but Primark jackets and has had a breast implant.

 

Don't get the Hitler gag.

 

Apparently he had a micro penis, which might account for his bad temper.

[unclebulgaria67]

The preamble "ever closer union" was already in the 1957 treaty of Rome. When Britain joined the EEC in 1973, the preamble was already there. When voters voted to stay in the EEC in 1975, they voted to agree with that preamble. No excuses can be taken.

 

The bigots who rant about a presumed dictatorship of the EU, are happy to clean for the queen, an unelected millionaire who is actually half German.

 

Yes Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher and all Prime Ministers since have understood the situation. The Tory party have been split on the EU mostly since Thatcher changed her mind in the late 1980's and encouraged what John Major called bast*rds. Then in opposition it just festered away with consituency parties and membership being mostly hostile to the EU. At every party conference, ministers had to sound Eurosceptic, even if they were in favour.

 

I am a republican who likes the Queen, but would prefer an elected President to follow.

[unclebulgaria67]

I forget the bit about changing his name to Mrs Merkel. You must get the Primark bit, have you ever seen her in anything else but those cheap nasty jackets, she even wore one to a formal dinner where all the ladies were dressed up to the nines and the men wore bow ties.

 

I have a thing for German women. Don't know what it is, but there are exceptions.

 

I think Farage is married to a German lady, who at one time was employed as his secretary using his EU MEP expenses. Kind of ironic ,

[unclebulgaria67]

The thing with 'migration' is there are two different aspects to it which seem to be avoided.

 

There are the illegal migrants, often referred to as refugees, which the UK does not have to take in or out the EU, and actually - neither did the EU

 

Then there are the EU members which we do have to accept while we are in the EU, and which will grow, and if Turkey gets its way, will include them as soon as they can wangle it.

 

Too much opposition for Turkey to join.

[unclebulgaria67]

My Dads family house was destroyed by a German flying bomb and it killed one of his brothers. My Dad had only just cycled away from the house. Then a few years later another brother died while working as an RAF pilot in an accident. Within about 5 years of the end of WW2, my Dad was stationed in Germany on military service, as the British Army was guarding the border with Russia and also to help rebuilding Germany. Keeping peace in Europe was one of the reasons the European project was started. Also it was strength in numbers against Russia during the cold war period.

[unclebulgaria67]

Turkey already has a large number of migrants and of course it will be young men who migrate more.

 

If the UK had a large number of migrants wanting to leave the UK, do people think the UK would be trying to stop them leaving ?

[unclebulgaria67]

It is the duty of a good citizen to be informed of the laws they are voting about. No excuses!

 

I bet there were discussions in the media at the time. I cannot believe that journalists like Robin Day did not ask questions about the future direction of travel, with the EEC being more than a simple free trade area.

 

This whole Brexit debate sums up politics really. It is a game of spin, trying to convince sheep which pasture they want to graze on. Most people who vote in June won't have a clue what the consequence of their vote is, in terms if how it affects their families. Personally, on the basis of risk, i would vote to remain, as the uncertainty Brexit will create, could cause economic problems, which people had not thought of.

[unclebulgaria67]

voted in 1st time & will this time = this all is a pointless exercise, some of us remember the late 40s/50s/60, always problems, not much food , lack of monies, and as now MPs out for self gain so called legally!

doing without meals to feed the children and hope they leave a bit for us, FACT! not fiction..

 

That is exactly what could happen after Brexit, if right wing politicians see it as an opportunity to remove various rights people have now. E.g workers rights, human rights. I think some extremely wealthy people see it as a chance to turn the UK into a tax haven, with UK Banks having less scrutiny than is required at the moment. If they think that either the US government or European countries would allow that to happen without consequences, they are a bit deluded.

[unclebulgaria67]

Where do you iners continually get this rubbish about losing rights, why would any rights be cut, scrapping working protection and human rights ?

 

Some on the Brexit side have already said they want to see current UK citizen rights reduced. E.g Chris Grayling, IDS.

 

They don't like some of the social chapter requirements and don't like European Human Rights being able to overide what is decided in the UK.

 

The EU is more socialist in outlook than many right wing politicians are comfortable with. There is a feeling within certain parties that the UK is too restricted by 'rights' and they prefer to strip a lot of these, so employers can include contract terms which were previously not allowed. If the Tories had a majority from 2020, which is likely with Corbyn around, you will see them gradually withdrawing legislation that they consider restricts freedom by business to make decisions right for them.

[unclebulgaria67]

I think people have to be honest and say what in particular they don't like about the EU.

 

In my opinion, immigration is too complex an issue to blame the EU. You ask people in Germany, Spain etc what their concerns are and it will be immigration. In the US Presidential debate immigration is also a big issue. Even Mexicans with US citizenship have backed Trump in trying to keep other Mexicans out of the US.

 

I suspect in China they have an issue in some parts with cheap migrant labour from country areas migrating to cities to compete for jobs, keeping wages down.

 

Whether the UK is part of the EU or not, population numbers will increase and as jobs get replaced by technology, there will be issues. Voting for Brexit ls likely to lead to a large influx of people before the exit date. There has already been an increase since the referendum date was set. Staying in the EU means that people have more freedom of movement and they can go to live in other countries.

[unclebulgaria67]

Please do read this article. It may change your mind on Brexit !

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3489744/I-won-t-fall-Distinguished-Army-chief-GENERAL-SIR-MIKE-JACKSON-says-vote-Brexit-want-sovereign-Britain-leaving-strategic-risk.html

[unclebulgaria67]

and the SNP have now formally declared what everyone really knew, that whatever happens, while the SNP are in power, Scotland will continue to seek independence whether the UK stays in the EU or not.

 

Cameron is an idiot. The Brexit vote has wider political implications which could prove to be a nightmare, if people vote for Brexit.

 

Retired General Mike Jackson discusses some of the issues in the article linked to.

 

N. Irish Unionists are for Brexit, because they see it as cementing N.Irelands future within the UK. There would not be the EU considerations, where they are cooperating fully with the Irish government who would be backed by the EU. If the troubles start up again in N.Ireland, it will be the sense of national identity being stirred up again, as to whether people look to Dublin or London.