The European Union.....In or Out?

[unclebulgaria67]

George Osborne will announce today that if the UK votes to leave the EU, he will have to hold an emergency budget where he will table tax increases and spending cuts. In response the leave campaign are saying that parliament would vote down any such budget. This would lead to a vote of no confidence in the government which is always held when a government is unable to pass their budget. This could lead to a general election before the end of this year, presumaby after a very toxic Tory leadership contest.

 

If this were to happen, i am not sure what the outcome of a general election would be. My guess would be a coalition government and brexit never being implemented.

 

What a mess Cameron has engineered !

[unclebulgaria67]

I think whatever the outcome is, there will need to be some tax increases and spending cuts - a Brexit vote would just give him a reason. I wonder what it will be if we DONT vote to leave !

 

Leave might mean increased taxes and spending cuts over a longer period.

 

The consequences of leave are potentially massive for the UK and people should not believe it is just the remain campaign painting a bleak picture.

[unclebulgaria67]

When i think about UK politicians blaming Brussels when it is convenient it annoys me. They will always find someone else to blame. The truth is that UK politicians have control of most issues affecting people and business.

 

I cannot think of any real gains for the British people if they vote to leave the EU. The control on rights of free movement to control net migration is unlikely to happen. If the UK wants tariff free access to the whole EU market, i suspect the conditions will be similar to those we already have. The UK will probably still have to pay into the EU, as i think Norway does.

 

As former cabinet secretary Gus O'Donnel said yesterday, if UK votes for Brexit, it will lead to a stalling of the British political system with a new government unable to get parliament to agree to implement any changes required. It will end up in a complete mess holding the country back for years.

[unclebulgaria67]

Thread is now open

 

Did you have to !

 

This EU debate is really annoying me now.

 

It will get worse if people vote for Brexit as it will then go on for years. There is no majority in parliament to support Brexit and very little appetite in the EU to negotiate UK revised position. It will end up in a nightmare position, with the country in turmoil and politicians shouting at each other, more than now.

[unclebulgaria67]

This referendum might not settle this matter. Boris Johnson on LBC this morning says he wants a leave vote to renegotiate EU membership terms. Apparently Michael Gove also believes in renegotiation to stay in the EU. A lot of anti EU voters want out and no renegotiation.

 

To me a vote to remain settles this issue and there will be a natural renegotiation between EU states anyway at some point. The countries that use the Euro might well forge closer economic ties to strengthen the Eurozone. Those outside the Euro have various opt outs, so they are not tied into any decisions made by Eurozone countries. There will be calls made by many EU countries to strengthen border controls and be able to apply terms to rights of free movement. The EU will change and the UK has a requirement by law to hold a referendum if there is a new EU treaty or significant change to membership terms. If people vote to leave the EU, it will be a complete mess affecting the economy for years and very damaging politically, with a government in a state of shambles split by divisions.

 

People might be fed up about many issues, but to vote in a way that is likely to cause them more suffering would be an act of stupidity. It is quite possible the experts are correct and that Brexit will cause an economic earthquake, which will affect the UK for years.

[unclebulgaria67]

Undecided, have read both the stay on leave but both have pro's and cons.

 

I have had the leaflets but nothing in them convinces me either way, should be a option to say undecided! lol

 

Sandy xx

 

What you have to consider Sandy is whether voting to leave will have any affect on you or your families future. No one can predict the future, BUT generally change does tend to cause an unsettled period and given current fragile state of the world we are in, do you wish to take the risk. Are you a person that likes to take a risk, when nobody knows the consequences ?

 

If you vote to remain then the status quo will continue, until the EU makes further changes, when the government according to legislation has to hold a referendum, if British membership terms are affected. The coalition government passed an act of parliament requiring a referendum on any future EU changes that affect the UK. So voting remain means that the UK will continue to be part of the EU, but only under existing terms.

 

If right of free movement and population growth is a concern, there is no guarantee right of free movement between EU and UK will end, if people vote to leave the EU. If the UK wants to be part of a 500+ million consumer market without any tariffs, then it will come with right of free movement. I can't see France or Germany agreeing to stop free movement, but all countries can adjust various terms e.g rules regarding access to benefits. Cameron has already negotiated that EU mainland citizens coming to the UK have to pay UK tax for 4 years before they can claim any benefits.

 

The other big point is that a world where China and US will fight it out for declining world resources will be very difficult. Would you rather be part of a 500+ million block of people in the EU or part of a small island nation with declining influence ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Something else to read before you vote.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3654463/Brexit-warning-FTSE-100-freefall-350bn-wiped-value-companies-London-s-stock-market.html

 

If Brexit causes another financial meltdown, i would not want to be in a position where i regretted my vote.

 

These warnings are not just being made in the UK. Look in the media in the US, Australia and elsewhere, where you will find finance experts warning about the consequences of Brexit. London is one of the major finance hubs and the shock will go around the system.

[unclebulgaria67]

Certain newspapers have treated their readers as sheep for years, by printing silly stories about the EU or politicians they don't agree with. Now with the internet and declining newspapers sales, it is not as easy for them to push the flock of readers to vote in a certain way.

 

LBC had some polling done, with questions about possible conspiracies in regard to the referendum. Apparently about a quarter of people believed the vote would be rigged in favour of remain. James O'Brien did a phone in where leave voters were phoning up saying they thought the government would make sure remain won by any means. When it was explained how voting was supervised by Electoral commission and observers from both sides of the campaign, they still believed in a possible conspiracy. This might just be a lack of information in the public domain about voting processes and security, but it is worrying if a quarter don't trust officials involved in elections.

 

Whatever the result, it won't resolve this issue. It is the nature of politics, that at least half of the country won't be happy with the result. Referendums on such issues are not a solution. UK should have proportional representation and a wider selection of political parties people can vote for, plus i would like to see more independent MP's It is then up to parliament to work harder for the public and do so in a cooperative way that is best for the country. If UK parliament wants changes in EU rules, it is better for them to work across parties to achieve this, by using evidence rather than just political flavour of the time.

[unclebulgaria67]

I will be voting remain for many reasons, but principally i am an internationalist and not a nationalist. I don't like countries retreating back to nationalistic ways, as that has never been a peaceful way to exist. Secondly in terms of economics, we will see a huge battle between China and US during the coming decades, which might prove a challenge for the UK alone. Being part of the EU means that we are part of 500+ million trading block and more powerful in standing up to the challenges we will face. Once you are out of the EU, if later you wish to rejoin, you then have to accept the Euro, plus other conditions we have currently opted out of.

[unclebulgaria67]

I have heard that joke before but remember it wasn't really the German state we fought but Hitler and the Nazi party . It could have been any other state. I do think it unfair to blame current Germans for the warcrimes of, well an Austrian.

 

I think that is the problem with some people, who keep harking back to WW2 and how Britain won the war, Churchill our greatest leader etc. The world has moved on and if we want to stop extremists in different countries, it is better to do this as part of an EU.

 

My Dad lost two of his brothers and his family home in London to a flying bomb during WW2. After the War, he served in the British Army in northern Germany guarding the border against the Soviets and helping to rebuild West Germany.

 

You might hate Brussels being involved in UK affairs, but most things you deal with on a daily basis have been decided at Westminster, not Brussels. The newspapers in league with politicians have used the EU as a scape goat to cover up for decisions made in Westminster. Why throw away the progress made in uniting Europe, improving Human Rights/workers rights and spreading western democracy to eastern Europe. Do you want to go back to a divided Europe that may well be worse than now ? How has the EU personally affected you to the extent that you would want the future of the UK to be so uncertain ?

[unclebulgaria67]

This will now drag on for months and years causing economic damage to the country.

 

I think Cameron will resign at some point this year and there will be a general election before the end of next year.

 

Some people have voted for leave as an anti government vote and not anti EU.

[unclebulgaria67]

How many votes were purely based on the EU ?

 

Even many leave supporters think Brexit won't happen.

 

Boris Johnson wants to renegotiate EU terms if possible to stay in. He said fhis on LBC the other day and he is not alone.

 

Will the EU concede greater restrictions on rights of free movement and other sweetners to stay in ? Possible.

 

What happens if there is an early general election and a pro EU party (Labour ?) wins ? An election result would trump a referendum.

[unclebulgaria67]

Cameron will be gone by October and it will either be Bojo or May as new PM. Bojo wants to use the referendum to negotiate revised membership terms. Get ready for a civil war in the Tory party and a bad few years for the UK.

 

If you have investments or pensions you will see a consequence of this vote. The UK will be worse off for years, all because of the hysteria whipped up by some people over a long period.

 

When people vote tactically without engaging their brains this is what happen.

 

England and Wales should be renamed the land of 17 million sheep people who have been brainwashed by media.

[unclebulgaria67]

Economic consequences so far as predicted before the vote.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36611512

 

If this continues, it could get to a very bad position with an emergency budget Osborne warned about.

[unclebulgaria67]

A good price to pay in order to preserve the wellbeing of future generations.

If you don't have kids you wouldn't care of course.

The labour way of spend today and forget about tomorrow is wrong

 

Immigration will increase for two reasons. Brits returning to UK from EU mainland and EU mainland citizens coming to the UK before any exit date. One of my nephews teaches English in Spain and there is huge demand for courses. This will cause more pressure on all services. Rents and house prices might increase further due to demand.

 

Even after Brexit, there is no guarantee net migration numbers will be lower than they are currently.

 

If interest rates increase, inflation increases because we import more than export, pound sterling reduces, we will be worse off.

 

Your kids will most likely suffer due to this vote.

[unclebulgaria67]

Permanent residents in UK will remain here and uk nationals in eu will remain there.

Worst case scenario they will have to apply for permanent permit to remain.

I am one of them having never taken a eu passport despite living here for almost 4 decades

 

It depends on what happens. If for example UK government stops paying Spain for healthcare they offer to British residents in Spain, those that cannot afford to pay will come back to the UK.

 

Many EU mainland citizens who have come to the UK will now apply for British citizenship to ensure their rights are maintained. I think it was Migration Watch who said that Brexit would see a large increase in UK population before the Brexit date. I agree with them.

[unclebulgaria67]

This Brexit vote will not solve any of the issues leave voters were interested in. They are going to be really fed up,once they realise the reality.

[unclebulgaria67]

I was watching something on BBC today and they were saying that for 40 years , EU law and directives have been enacted into just about every aspect of UK law. As such, the only way to change it is to go through every piece of legislation and either repeal/replace/amend it. This will take years

 

Yes it will take up a lot of time in parliament and also the various trade deals will also take years to gain agreement.

 

The 2 years break clause won't be triggered before the Tories have appointed a new leader. Some Tory Brexiters want to try to renegotiate with the EU before they start the exit process. If they don't engineer an early election, the UK could still be in the EU at the next due election in May 2020. Then what happens if the election is won by a pro EU party or coalition of parties.

[unclebulgaria67]

Farage as a previous city trader should know that the City of London is host to a huge number of traders who deal with things related to Euro and European markets. Also many companies choose to base themselves in London as their base within the EU. There could be tens of thousands of lost jobs and billions of pounds of lost income.

 

If UK pensioners end up with reduced value of pensions and worse healthcare, Farage should apologise to them.

[unclebulgaria67]

According to an article in the Daily Mail, a campaign is being started for independence for London, so it can remain in the EU. That would be a bit awkward with Bank of England, Parliament etc being in London. You could imagine an independent England having to find its own capital city.

 

Could this happen ? I don't think so given that parliament would have to authorise any referendum on independence for London, unless there is a process i have not heard of.

[unclebulgaria67]

The pressure will be on Cameron to make his resignation as PM immediate, rather than wait for a new Tory leader to be elected by October. The EU wants the UK to leave ASAP, as the uncertainty will cause huge damage to Europe.

 

If a new Tory leader/PM is not in place until October, given that Parliament has to pass bills through both houses to enable the government to start the EU exit process, it could mean that the 2 year exit period is not started until 2017. The 2 years exit period would then take you very close to the planned election in May 2020. Parliament might vote against the government and not recognise the referendum result. A vote of no confidence could follow and an early general election. An anti EU Tory party might not win the election.

[unclebulgaria67]

Petition to make London independent and remain part of EU.

 

https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu

 

London is very different to many parts of the UK and thrives as part of the EU. It makes perfect sense to continue being part of the EU and if necessary become independent.

[unclebulgaria67]

Most if not all of those countries have proportional representation,that's true democracy

 

Totally agree that proportional representation is really the only true democracy. It might be the case that you get weaker government and deals done behind closed doors, but at least you would have a parliament where politicians worked together to obtain agreement. With our system, you get a majority government obtaining less than 30% of those eligible to vote. They then feel entitled to do what they like without a majority of support in the country.

 

This Brexit vote will prove a disaster for the Tories, because parliament might not support any votes they bring forward on bills they need to pass. Or amendments will be passed that drag it into the long grass. Meanwhile Police investigations are taking place about electoral rule breaks which might lead to byelections being required. The Tories could lose their majority.

 

Matthew Paris the Tory commentator thinks there could be an early general election in Spring 2017, with a new Tory leader looking to gain a majority of MP's supporting Brexit to ensure exit from the EU. The Tories could lose such an election or not obtain a majoity.

 

Leave might have won, but any Brexit might take years or not happen at all. It could be a total farce.

[unclebulgaria67]

The people have spoken and the idea of a second referendum because some people were not happy with the result is ludicrous..

 

Many people will now regret their decisions when the see the consequences. This will grow over the weeks and months ahead.

 

George Osborne may well have to do an emergency budget where he increases taxes and makes further cuts. MP's might vote the budget down and this could lead to a vote of no confidence, which could lead to an early election. The Tories might not win such an election with a majority. A new government might well be forced to hold a further referendum or simply ignore the first result.

 

Labour will probably have a new leader by October. Corbyn was really in favour of Brexit, if you go by his reaction to the result. If Labour select the right person, they could be back in government by November.

[unclebulgaria67]

The scaremongering continues.

I say that there will be a period of transition and uncertainty, but give it a couple of years and we'll be prospering.

The nazist EU is a corrupt blood suckling organisation and we will not regret leaving them.

 

Think you are so wrong. Even the Mail on Sunday have a number of articles pointing to what is already starting to happen. City of London finance centre will lose work and HM Treasury will lose tax income. That could mean an end to triple lock on pensions and tax increases.

 

I am no big fan of the EU as an instituition, but i realise that uncertainty is never good economically. It will wreck the UK economy for at least a decade.