Mutating Corona Virus

[cjcregg]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

How sad, Americans won't be able to travel to Trump's golf resort in Scotland. Will it be his Irish resort next?

 

The ban is on Europeans entering the US, not Americans travelling to Europe.

[cjcregg]

1 minute ago, honeybee13 said:

I see what you're saying but the US has banned people coming in from the UK and Ireland now. What about Americans who travelled to either of them in the last few days?

 

I don't see the logic, but maybe I'm missing something.

 

Read here, it was published before the ban included UK & Ireland but the same applies https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-travel-ban-explained-trump-europe-travel-americans-leave-us-family-citizens-a9398856.html

[cjcregg]

On 05/03/2020 at 12:36, tobyjugg2 said:

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson said measures such as closing schools and banning big events "don't work as well perhaps as people think".

He told ITV's This Morning programme another way of responding to the virus would be to "take it on the chin" and allow it to "move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures".

Mr Johnson said it would be "business as usual" for the "overwhelming majority" of people in the UK"

 

as:

"Downing Street has confirmed that Boris Johnson is in talks with the parliamentary authorities about a possible shutdown if the outbreak continues to get worse."

 

and:

""Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has been holding talks with medical experts and officials about the prospect of suspending Parliament until the worst of the virus blows over"

 

 

More misquoting going on here.

 

He didn't say the measures such as closing schools doesn't work, he said it's what scientists had told him.

 

You've also selectively misquoted what he said about taking it on the chin. Here's the full version as reported by the Beeb including the bits you edited out:

 

"One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."

 

 

[cjcregg]

4 hours ago, citizenB said:

IMHO, they should return Nadine Dorries to Parliament and lock all of the MPs inside.

IMHO I wouldn't wish Coronavirus on anyone. 

[cjcregg]

12 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Neither would I, but I would like HMG to start showing some compassion for people who are affected and to listen to the WHO advice instead of cherry-picking it.

 

Like what?

[cjcregg]

22 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I don't have time to look up the detail right now, but from what I've read they have ignored a lot of the WHO's advice and don't seem inclined to 'test, test, test' as the WHO said today, I think it was.

 

When you say they ''don't seem inclined'' what do you mean?

 

The UK have been increasing testing dramatically  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51814874

 

The total number of tests have increased from 25,000 to 44,000 in the last week.

 

Even today the UK Chief Medical Advisor said ''We are ramping up testing significantly''.

 

[cjcregg]

15 minutes ago, hightail said:

They've done tens of thousands of tests and only around one thousand were positive.  All those negatives were only valid for that moment, same people could test positive a few days later or may have had the diease previously so I'm not sure they tell us anything useful. 

 

Indeed and the problem with mass speculative testing is that it's very labour intensive and takes already stretched nursing staff off the wards where they could be treating those who are actually sick.

 

 

[cjcregg]

8 hours ago, hightail said:

I think they are working on a test which will tell if someone has had the virus as well as if they’re currently infected.  Guessing that means one which tests for antibodies rather than the virus.  That would give more info and be worth doing.

 

Yes that's what I thought when I heard it. Testing for people who basically didn't know they had it (ie who were asymptomatic) and finding out why.

[cjcregg]

6 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Has Government reacted in a measured way ?

 

 

 

Too measured and talking of measures that's how the latest 'policy' has been presented, as 'taking measures'. Thing is they're not measures at all, it's just advice. Johnson is trying to be all things to all men. He can say he's being business friendly by saying he's not ordered the hospitality industry to close but at the same time telling citizens not to use it. It's lame cop out.

[cjcregg]

He's not lying to anyone, at least in this instance, he's just not being decisive enough and avoiding difficult decisions.

[cjcregg]

[cjcregg]

On 21/03/2020 at 11:52, maroondevo52 said:

A Notice was pinned up in my Depot thanking us for our work over the past few weeks, it also said our health and wellbeing was very important to the company yet we have had no gloves or hand sanitiser supplied, still van sharing, takes a while to make sure the vans clean before you start your run.

 

 

 

This note was pinned to a door in Glasgow.

 

 

Excellent!

[cjcregg]

7 hours ago, 45002 said:

 

Think the Government are living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

Just How

 

Seam to forget that police forces cuts over past 10 year in the whole of UK.

 

British armed forces comprises just over 79,300 trained regular full-timers, just over 27,200 trained reserve part-time personnel.

 

So Boris how are you going to crack down on population of over 66 million people while the NHS is at breaking point !

 

What do you suggest then?

[cjcregg]

44 minutes ago, 45002 said:

 

You tell me ?

 

Do what the Government suggests. It's the only option.

[cjcregg]

9 hours ago, 45002 said:

 

I total agree with you.

 

Unfortunately, the few are going to ruin it for the masses .

 

Which is why the restrictions must be enforceable.

[cjcregg]

3 hours ago, 45002 said:

 

Problem is how based on the figures from national statistical office I posted at #221

 

 

 

Somehow I doubt that the entire population of 66 million people will need cracking down on, just a tiny proportion.

 

Enforceability is a deterrent. It won't deter some people but clearly it will have a significant effect.

[cjcregg]

[cjcregg]

7 hours ago, dx100uk said:

Its not an idea it's probably the only way it will eventually become non transmissible amongst all humans

 

 

 

It's an idea and a lousy one. 

 

The jury's still out on whether contracting coronavirus results in immunity to catching it again or whether it mutates and renders an initial immunity obsolete.

 

Moreover the concept of allowing it to spread as, err, a solution to it spreading is self evidently ridiculous.

 

 

 

 

[cjcregg]

51 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

The johnson plan was until recently as stated earlier in the thread.

In simple terms that is:

 

get everyone who wasn't in at at risk category infected while somehow hoping that 'at risk' people could be kept away from it somehow and wouldn't be exposed to it while the population at large everywhere was - and then hope that people actually did get immune and weren't carriers,

and ignoring the fact that many might be infected and contagious with no symptoms and that allegedly not 'at risk' folk could still end up very ill/dead

 

- at best

 

 

 

 

This is why herd immunity could never succeed as a strategy. It sounds great in theory but you simply cannot 'manage' a high contagious virus in a population of 60 million people. Additionally the idea would be impossible to sell politically, and that's precisely what happened.

[cjcregg]

On 29/03/2020 at 22:30, tobyjugg2 said:

 

I know nurses and staff in hospitals who were right up to last friday face to face with patients since the outbreak with no face masks, few gloves and not even hand sanitiser which had run out or been stolen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In non-covid wards masks aren't even a requirement and I seriously doubt that any NHS hospital has run out of gloves and sanitiser.

 

I spent most of the last week in the non-covid respiratory wards of both Harefield and Stoke Mandeville hospitals and both had massive stocks of all PPE (I asked), and it's not as if they don't use it. I was genuinely astonished at how much PPE they got through as nursing staff would put on fresh PPE like aprons and gloves between each and every patient interaction, meaning hundreds of items per nurse per day.

 

 

 

 

 

[cjcregg]

5 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Well I can confirm that those desperately needed supplies are reaching the hospitals although far more is needed

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sure that the entire nation is reassured and lost in gratitude to you for this heart-warming confirmation.

 

Do keep us updated.

[cjcregg]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

 

Testing everyone, repeatedly if necessary - is the ONLY sane way forward

 

 

 

Just out of interest, how long did it take you to formulate this conclusion? I'm not looking for a particularly accurate answer, just round it up to the nearest nano second.

 

 How is this going to work then?

 

Where are the medical personnel and laboratory staff required to undertake this massive project going to come from? Now this is just a stab in the dark but I'd imagine they'd be quite busy at the moment.

 

Even South Korea, who are recognised as having one of the most aggressive testing policies have only managed to test 1% of their population. You clearly have no conception as to the scale of what you're proposing.

 

Even if it was possible to plan, organise and execute it would take years to achieve, by which time all the data would have been redundant and completely meaningless. I was tested last week and it took 2 days for the result, which by the time I received it was already out of date as I was then and now just as likely to be infected as I was when I took the test.

 

Think about it.

 

 

[cjcregg]

1 hour ago, BazzaS said:

 

 

I agree (in parts) with 2 contributors postings.

 

WHO says “test, test, test”, so more tests ARE key. That is part agreeing with one contributor.

 

 

 

The 'test, test, test' call from WHO specifically applies to just ''suspected cases'' and those who recently had contact with confirmed cases. WHO isn't calling for speculative testing.

 

I assume Prof Tobyjug is referring to a PCR test but as testing the entire nation for anything is a fantasy it doesn't matter much.

[cjcregg]

57 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

So which is a real achievable option, and which isn't?

* Locking down the whole population (any not locked down and untested are almost certain to be spreading it) for at least 3 months - and as things are going even longer next year is likely and deal with the REAL social and economic fallout from that

 

* Test the whole population, repeatedly if necessary.

 

 

 

 

 

Testing the whole population isn't achievable.

[cjcregg]

48 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

 

 

The WHO's test, test, test recommendation may be a bit short on detail.

 

The detail is crystal clear and as I described it, here's the head of WHO explaining it.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-51916707/who-head-our-key-message-is-test-test-test