Our next PM

[London1971]

How on earth is he going to face 27 hostile leaders across the negotiating table if he can't face Jeremy Hunt on Sky News?

 

[London1971]

It's hard to believe that we have come to this point.

[London1971]

Average of last General Election voting intention polls over the last month Labour 26%, Tories 24%, Brexit 20%, Lib Dems 18%.

 

Due to our crazy voting system this still gives the Brexit party zero MP's, but leaves Labour just 46 seats short of a majority.  The Lib Dems on 18% massively increase their seats, to 48, meaning that right now Labour / Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru or a Labour / SNP coalition is the most likely outcome of a Gen elex.

 

This is why they are so so desperate to appear tough on Brexit and bring the BP voters back into the fold, or they lose the election.

[London1971]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

From what I've read today, Boris is planning to blame Europe when it all goes pear-shaped. But they seem to be aware of this and hopefully they can avoid taking the blame.

 

Hmm maybe that would work / maybe it wouldn't.  I think a lot depends on how bad things get in the event of a 'no deal'. 

 

If the news coverage suddenly shifts to huge price rises , mass disruption, and layoffs, then I would imagine the scrutiny will shift to how well the government is coping, and that blaming Europe will only cut so much mustard.

[London1971]

2 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

lets all remember who he is intending to sell this 'its all the EU's fault too ...

the idots who for some strange reason think he isnt unfit for any responsible position. and think he is talking sense.

If they believe that, they will believe anything.

 

 

I think we can all look forward to the shortest serving PM in history if he gets in.

 

Trouble is, a general election probably wont get us much better.

 

All we can hope for is a minority government propped up by the libdems - and lets hope they don't make the same mistake twice.

The libdems need to learn from the DUP and realise a small supporting party can largely run the roost in a limited number of areas that matter to them - as long as they are firm and hard enough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Absolutely right,

 

If Boris delivered a box of steaming dog turd labelled ' from Boris' to his core conservative supporters they would still vote for him.

[London1971]

They always promise Tax cuts, until they see the actual numbers.

[London1971]

How is a Brexit Party / Tory Coalition worth anything, when even 23% only gives the BP 1 MP.  And remember Labour only have to shift the % age votes a tiny amount to be the largest party in a hung parliament. Our electoral system right now favours the Labour and the Lib Dems.

[London1971]

All true, we shall have to see, there might not be a GE until 2022 anyway.

[London1971]

Bearing that in mind , I doubt he would be the one calling an election.  Several Tory MP's would have to vote against their own government to bring about an election, it's hard to see that.  However , natural wastage. It only takes another 3 MP's to die / be involved in a scandal. Probably that will go down to 2 next month.  Pretty soon Tories won't have a majority, even with the DUP.

[London1971]

Lib Dems , Greens and Plaid are going to stand down and get behind the Lib Dems as the remain party in Brecon.  Do not underestimate tactical voting.

[London1971]

Not sure if I believe that.  Although it's one of those things that seems to fit in with the Zeitgeist.

[London1971]

Boris Flip flops on everything, which is why you can't believe a word he says.

[London1971]

Odds on he's more unpopular than TM before Christmas.

[London1971]

You know, and I know, it's just talk and it won't happen.

[London1971]

 I mean it won't happen, at that time. Too early!

 

If Boris keeps his promise to the ERG and leaves without a deal, especially if he tries to freeze parliament out, political fireworks not seen since November 5th, 1605 are going to erupt, and it could be the end of Boris.

 

If he doesn't keep his promise to the ERG and , has another extension, same result, more explosions, and it will be the end of Boris.

 

He's already 2 by elections away from oblivion, I'm sure there are statistics here, but history teaches us, how rapidly they can occur. That would be the end of Boris.

 

A smart , shrewd, intelligent, diplomatic leader might have a 10% chance of surviving 12 months.. but his job as foreign secretary doesn't bode well there.

 

 

[London1971]

He's not even in power yet, and has already had one parliamentary defeat.  17 of his own party either rebelled or abstained, he has a working majority of 3 (If Lib Dems win Brecon). It doesn't seem like he will be able to hold on to any more authority than Theresa May had .  It's very difficult indeed to see how a general election can be avoided.

 

As for Brexit, and his 'no deal' promises, if he follows through, he enters into even more dangerous territory for his premiership. It's literally on a wing and a prayer. Watch the headlines change as the pound crashes, and the job losses mount up.

 

 

[London1971]

I think it's what happens afterwards that will sink Boris.

[London1971]

Don't think Iraq did too much for Tony Blair's popularity.

[London1971]

Iran have only done it because they know we are an international joke, right now.

[London1971]

1 hour ago, Surfer01 said:

 

Most definitely as he is one of the best presidents they have had in a long time.  He is straight forward and does not beat around the bush unlike most of our politicians.  He may not have the finesse required but he does things right.  I am sure that he will win the next election probably with a majority this time.

 

Trump most certainly doesn't beat around the bush.  Good president? We'll he's certainly offended a lot of people.  At least he's not started a disastrous  Middle East War yet, which makes him a little bit less worse than'W.  History, as with all leaders will be the ultimate judge.

[London1971]

7 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

lets consider Johnsons problems

 

1. Parliament does NOT want a no deal

2. Johnson has NO mandate from the electrate

 

-

1. is unlikely to change apart from getting more out of Johnson Favour

2. Depending on which pole you believe - the country is getting more (perhaps VERY significantly more) in favour of remain.

 

 

Whats in Johnsons favour

1. He's uniting the Brextiters, at the Brexit parties expense, which Farage is probably in favour of.

2. Corbyn.

3 The split Remain vote between Labour/Libdems and Greens

 

So with Corbyn an obvious Leaver - that plays into Johnsons hands,

and if Corbyn is forced to come out as remain - few would believe him and it still splits the remain vote in a general election scenario

 

7 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

As much as it pains me to say, in the last few days I have come to the conclusion that Boris Johnson is eminently more electable than Jeremy Corbyn, he's a far better campaigner, and we are going to have a No deal Brexit.

 

7 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said: