Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

On 05/03/2020 at 12:36, tobyjugg2 said:

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson said measures such as closing schools and banning big events "don't work as well perhaps as people think".

He told ITV's This Morning programme another way of responding to the virus would be to "take it on the chin" and allow it to "move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures".

Mr Johnson said it would be "business as usual" for the "overwhelming majority" of people in the UK"

 

as:

"Downing Street has confirmed that Boris Johnson is in talks with the parliamentary authorities about a possible shutdown if the outbreak continues to get worse."

 

and:

""Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has been holding talks with medical experts and officials about the prospect of suspending Parliament until the worst of the virus blows over"

 

 

 

Little reminder from earlier in the thread where Johnson was planning the parliamentary shutdown while suggesting everyone else 'take it on the chin' and 'business as usual'

[tobyjugg2]

On 02/09/2020 at 14:11, tobyjugg2 said:

 

Schools returning is not just about educating the kids .. Tories don't give a crap about poor kids schooling - or even poor kids eating ...

... Its about getting their parents back into the office and town centers to save Tory voters businesses.

 

 

 

British Retail Consortium says empty office blocks mean city centres deprived of customers

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/04/government-must-do-more-to-get-public-back-into-shops-say-retailers

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

“Operation Moon Shot” is the informal name by which the government has very deliberately allowed it to become known."

"This is to involve a Covid-19 testing regime of several million tests per week, or even per day, with results that come back in 20 minutes using technology that does not currently exist, and thus allowing life to return almost to normal."

 

It will never happen, of course

 

"It is unfortunate that Johnson allowed himself to get stuck in a kind of feedback loop of overpromising and underdelivering.

See, for example, sending the coronavirus packing in 12 weeks. The “world-beating” test and trace app, due end of (last) May."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/matt-hancock-tony-abbott-interview-operation-moon-shot-boris-johnson-a9705726.html

Edited September 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

must be doing close to the '300,000 tests a day capacity' HB

 

... as if

 

Figures I've seen which apparently include all the 'ghost ones is barely half that,

with actual people tested closer to half that again

[tobyjugg2]

 

Do note that these UK figures are total tests apparently including things like testing kits sent out and never returned, tests counted twice and/or done twice counted as 2/3/4 etc

- so perhaps better describable as actual real 'capacity'

- especially as on a number of days (as I experienced) people are unable to get tests anywhere let alone locally.

 

The French figure is actual people tested.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=2020-04-01..2020-08-27&country=GBR~FRA

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

First one explains why steroids are good for some with severe Cov

Second far more technical, but describes the likely mechanisms Cov uses

 

https://theconversation.com/steroids-cut-covid-19-death-rates-but-not-for-everyone-heres-who-benefits-and-who-doesnt-145605

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/05/a-supercomputer-analysed-data-on-covid-19-and-helped-come-up-with-this-new-hypothesis

 

[tobyjugg2]

Boris Johnson pinning hopes on £100bn 'moonsh*t' to avoid second lockdown

Creating 'moonsh*t' reportedly relies on elements rarer than rocking horse muck

 

ie

* testing over 100,000 people a day (actually testing over a million people a day)

* Available local testing

* Regular testing of all front line workers and school kids on site

* Results from testing back within hours, not weeks/not at all

* Investment in local test and trace

* an effective vaccine(s)

* politicians and spads leading by example

* Competent and effective leadership

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/boris-johnson-pinning-hopes-on-covid-testing-moonshot-leaked-papers-show

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

I agree, but given Johnson the Liar and crews utter incompetence/negligence some might think 'no senior person in government could be that incompetent/negligent and retain the support of their party, let alone get elected, so it must be deliberate.

 

I can understand where they come from

 

With handcock being pulled up by the speaker for talking to news outlets about changes in lockdown 'before (still hasn't has he) notifying parliament - despite having just been there ... despite he and his brexit pals claiming it was all about bringing power back to Parliament?

 

Let alone handcock claiming that the shortfall in tests is not due to any lack of tests or him lying about capacity, but caused by all those people who tested negative wasting the tests ... clearly they should only be tested if the result will be positive .....

 

So criminal negligence/incompetence ..  or deliberate plan?

Neither seems anything a major developed western nation should realistically be suffering, let alone for so long.

 

 

Johnson will of course just spout more 'Moonsh*t'

Edited September 10, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

anyway, back to handcock saying people must have symptoms before they are tested.

 

Has nobody told him that 75-80% of infected people are asymptomatic?

 

About time somebody did before we get a really uncontrolled outbreak

- or is that what he  prefers rather than owning up to his own BS claims re testing and testing capacity?

 

Does he really prefer people die rather than he ( handcock) is simply a tiny little more clearly shown to be just another self-serving liar

[tobyjugg2]

As infections continue to spike 

Handcock +sercos don't test and don't trace figures still dont hold water

 

"The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said on Thursday that 1.2m tests were being carried out per week, adding that there was capacity for 300,000 per day."

 

"The government no longer publishes daily testing figures, but the latest available figures say 175,687 tests were reported on 2 September, while the estimated total capacity reported by laboratories for that day was 369,937."

 

"Leaked documents revealed the 185,000 backlog and the fact that tests are being sent to German and Italian laboratories for processing, according to the Sunday Times."

(- LOL eat that with your toast Brexiters)

 

 

So as we are seeing

* Claims that people are being sent 100's of miles (waste of time if labs have no capacity left and if labs have capacity then tests could easily be sent there from anywhere in batches)

* Day after day with no tests or the odd one appearing here and there around the country ... whattt!!!

* Largest single day tests reported being 175,687 0f a claimed 300,000 per day capacity

 

So my calculations of 175,000 absolute peak capacity and around 75,000 per day actual sustained capacity would seem to be spot on,

and Handcockian + Johnsonite liars are ... lying massively about capacity and capability

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/covid-tests-sent-to-italy-and-germany-as-uk-labs-are-overwhelmed

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

It would seem that ACTUAL capacity hasn't increased any since I did that estimate a month or so ago (its here somewhere for any who might claim its hindsight)

- perhaps I over-estimated it the actual max capacity then by a few 10's of thousands - but the figures all seem to be around the same still.

 

Seems quite clear to me that the summer 'lull' has been utterly wasted and capacity has simply NOT been increased in any significant way

- it SHOULD have been. Anyone with a few brain cells working could see that.

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

21 minutes ago, London1971 said:

It's actually pretty scary that Spain, France, Canada etc are also desperate to get kids back in school, they have had exactly the same testing and messaging problems. 

 

 

Israel has significant rising cases as do most, but I disagree that other countries are having the same testing and messaging issues

 

Take France whos person testing figures figures are about the same as the UK's tests 'carried out'/posted out/sent somewhere figures which appear to be close to double the actual people tested.

Quite a significant difference IMO.

 

Cummings should have been sacked - that he wasn't is just one more example that lies and cronyism is what Johnson runs on - and always has, lying stats then just trying to hide them is another.

trying to renege on an international agreement he rushed through and is still claiming as THE 'great deal' in other perspectives and make the whole of our whole nation a nation of liars like him is yet another. but I'll take that to the 50 thread.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Meanwhile there's Operation Moonspaff spending £100bn on tests and systems that haven't been invented yet. I don't see the point.

 

£99B of taxpayer funds to serco and pals profits for delivering begger all

£1B on promoting something that will never work

 

Standard Boris the Liar Johnson projects

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, brassnecked said:

Yes the whole Test regime is broken, teacher in Bangor offered Inverness 890 mile round trip and £400 rail fare as can't book saver ticket, or around £80 and a likely overnight stay by car.

 

With all the associated risk issues during the trip if the teacher is infected

 

[tobyjugg2]

Apart from a few 'fishy' allegations from various places, we don't even know what the real issues with the test mechanisms are - apart from the government obviously lying about 'capacity' ... and probably many other things

 

are the Government really testing care homes to the detriment of front line NHS staff let alone all others?

or is it actually the far more likely total loss of control of the testing system?

 

Prioritisation should be quite simple as it asked when we booked for confirmation of NHS staff status, although the simple fact that even then the second time we tried to book when they lost O'H's test/results we saw the 'no tests available anywhere' message one day - then all sorts of local tests available the next.

Didn't make any real sense then, and doesn't make any real sense now.

 

It just seems like the systems are doing stupid things, particularly when you see reports of people just turning up at local test centers and there is no one waiting to be seen - and some who asked are just allowed in to take a test.

- or someone is flipping options on and off in the 'system'

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Growth in the Group of 20 nations (which account for 80 percent of the world’s economic production) fell by a record 6.9 percent from April to June compared with the previous three months. The biggest growth declines were in India (minus 25.2 percent) and Britain (minus 20.4 percent), while growth in Europe shrank by nearly 15 percent.

The O.E.C.D. warned that the global economy will fare far worse if a second wave of virus outbreaks leads governments to renew wide-scale quarantines.   From NYT

[tobyjugg2]

56 minutes ago, hightail said:

Some centres are designated 'walk-in' and there is confusion as to whether an appointment is needed.  Sometimes it hasn't been and more recently they are turning away even those who do have a QR code.  Some don't open at all, or do so hours late with no reason given.  Some stop testing/close early even when there are booked appointments outstanding.  This does seem to be recent, roughly since the schools went back. About three weeks ago my daughter managed to book a test at a local centre for the next day.  Now there's nothing.

 

41 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Isn't part of it problems with having enough laboratory capacity to test all the samples that are taken?

 

I cant see how lack of laboratory capacity justifies sending people 100's of miles let alone from Glasgow to Dublin

They can ship the samples to whatever lab they like easily, quickly and cheaply.

 

.. Even to the EU - at least until there is huge queues of Lorries blocking everywhere on their way to lorry parks ...

 

...motorbike 'a la blood transportation' / pizza delivery zooming down the motorway to a lab with 'capacity'

 

Theres more to it than labs without 'capacity'

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

9 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I cant see how lack of laboratory capacity justifies sending people 100's of miles let alone from Glasgow to Dublin

They can ship the samples to whatever lab they like easily, quickly and cheaply.

 

 

and the other side of that is,

if there really isn't any lab capacity, then sending people 10 yards for a test is pointless, let alone an 800 mile round trip.

 

That people are reporting empty testing stations on the other hand could point to lab capacity

 

How would you ever know with a government that just lies?

There could be the capacity that handcock actually claims

- in which case it must be that the UK government is just withholding the tests from the UK people .... for some reason ...

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

5 hours ago, London1971 said:

Bloody hell, that is a joke. In a few weeks, all the normal coughs , stomach bugs etc will be circulating at school with no way of knowing if it’s Covid or not. 
 

If it carries on like this then schools will be closed by October half term.

 

and the parents will be in hospital

[tobyjugg2]

16 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

The BMJ think it probably isn't as simple as that.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3497

 

Too right

 

and don't forget, as already linked, the UK is some strange 'number of tests' total including

Tests sent out but never returned

Tests in labs purely for laboratory type purposes

Failed/spoiled tests

multiple tests for the same person when number of swabs is counted as has repeatedly been reported

 

Most other countries (like France in my prior link and graphic) are doing around the same number - but their number is number of people tested

 

So as examples previously - roughly half Boris the Liars/Handcock UK's 'tests' figure to get number of people tested

- which puts them WAAAY below the PEOPLE tested numbers of France and Germany

[tobyjugg2]

29 minutes ago, London1971 said:

It’s true , other countries are having the same problems. Switzerland, Canada etc. They are all trying to send their kids back to school and University and also protect care homes.

 

 

20 minutes ago, London1971 said:

And as if by magic someone just popped up in my time line complaining about a 5 hour wait at a testing centre in Toronto.

 

You mean like the following London?

Where people are queueing at a local center to GET tested - not being told to travel to Alaska for one - or that there isnt any

 

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/09/long-lineups-toronto-mayor-extended-hours-covid-19-test-centres/

 

Hardly equivalent to handcocks farce now is it?

- even if the mayor wasn't pressing for longer opening hours rather than paying them to close like ours

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

@London

More detail on the story.

 

https://www.cp24.com/news/etobicoke-residents-report-three-hour-long-wait-to-get-a-covid-19-test-1.5104702

 

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-mayor-wants-hours-extended-at-testing-centres-amid-reports-of-large-lineups-1.5103996

 

just putting this in perspective - I'll bet all the folks in the uk who are being told there aren't any tests unless they travel 4-500 miles BY 5 O'Clock that same day and no other tests available ANYWHERE for at least the next week are jealous eh?

 

 

“If you are not able to receive a test when you arrive, please return the following day, as per the testing centre’s process,” the William Osler website advises people."

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

9 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Ok. Their screw up isn’t as bad as ours; or is ? I don’t know., don’t really care that much. I just want someone to get a grip!

 

 

 

try reading and confirming rather than doing a handcock/Johnson

- we have cjregg for promoting johnsonesque horseplop, misdirection and repeated falsehoods - the post is filled.

 

I know we are all getting tired of it as Johnson hopes and wishes - but that isn't an excuse

We know you are better than that.

Edited September 15, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Yesterdays headlines

 

The number of people in the UK testing positive passed 3,000

The number of daily deaths was above 50 for the first time since July

People on ventilators was again the highest number for many weeks

Continued lack of test availability chaos

 

The government has shut down a coronavirus testing centre in Kent because it needs the land to prepare a lorry park for a no-deal Brexit.

 

With just BS from Johnson, Handcock and cjregg and little (in any way) from Dido Harding

 

 

Notably

NHS and Public Health England testing capacity has grown from small numbers to around 120,000 a day - more than half of all total capacity, with over 95% of results returned within 24 hours

- whereas Private testing capacity apparently just sits on profits with little increase in capacity and dragging the NHS figures down

(that puts the real maximum 'capacity' at a more realistic figure of approx 200,000-225,000 a day - up to a third LESS than claimed)

 

 

(Taken from various reports including Waugh zone, Independent, Express, BBC, Guardian and Gov figures sourced mostly from International sources they are required to report - so now easy to google)

 

eg

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-54158100

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

So, thanks to HB's Indi link which I might have missed and which filled in a few key issues, and all the other stuff we've been linking which filled in some gaps ...

 

A core part of the problem:

 

First - Who is responsible - evidence courtesy of Paul Waugh

 

"On July 21, Matt Hancock appeared before the Commons science and technology committee and was asked a series of simple but direct questions by its chairman, former cabinet minister Greg Clark.

Who is responsible for setting testing strategy? “The Government, so me as Secretary of State,” replied the health secretary. “The process is that testing strategy is then considered by the Covid-O Cabinet Sub-Committee and signed off cross-Government either there or at the Covid-S Cabinet Sub-Committee that is chaired by the Prime Minister.”

{+ Cummings? - my question}

Hancock was further pushed on the point. Testing strategy is not set by Public Health England, for example? “No, it is set by me.” It is not set by NHS England? “No, it is my responsibility as part of the Government and then it goes through a Government clearance process.” The answers were clear: the buck stops (indeed the buck started) with Hancock and Boris Johnson"

 

 

Where and why - Identifying one of the main Issues

(most quoted from HB's excellent link rather than a number of other sources I had been examining):

Lighthouse laboratories

 

'Early in the crisis choice was made (Hancock + Johnson the incompetent liar) to centralise laboratory testing in three Lighthouse labs as opposed to ramping up the capacity of the NHS and smaller labs at universities and private companies.

 

Setting up the lighthouse labs benefited from the experience of many university and lab technician staff who's facilities had NOT had expansion funded in their own facilities - with the money given to the private sector.

 

"They created the labs and the processes needed to get testing going, and initially the labs delivered significant extra capacity from the 5,000 daily tests the UK was capable of in March."

ie they added a few thousand very important at the time tests - probably less than the uni labs if funded could have done.

 

 

Now any competent project manager would have then used the time and experienced university lab staff to set up and train their own staff ... rather than JUST carry on using the uni staff on the cheap ... but NO

 

"In the summer, many of these experts returned to their universities and the Lighthouse labs have been forced to recruit staff who in some cases will spend their shifts just opening thousands of sample bags."

 

Did Johnson the incompetent liar and sidekicks drive a push to start training up staff and ramping up REAL capacity in the Lighthouse labs?

 

Did they Johnson as like.. just a week or so ago:

 

"Earlier this month, the question of workforce supply was recognised as an urgent problem by the government.

Boris Johnson wrote to dozens of universities asking for “urgent support” on testing and said “one of the most significant challenges in scaling up capacity is the qualified workforce needed”.

 

"The prime minister went on to ask universities if they would release, for a second time, the experienced staff who had previously worked at the labs.

Lighthouse laboratories in Milton Keynes, Manchester, Glasgow, Newport and Cambridge needed 400 students and technicians, with the PM hoping people would sign up for six- or 12-month contracts."

 

So all back to the people who should have got the funding and task to start with.

 

Oh and Johnson the incompetent Liar is only just realising there is an issue with delivery and distribution, so is offering a further £785M to someone to manage it ... even if poorly from prior experience

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-home-testing-kits-lighthouse-labs-nhs-contract-b436220.html

 

 

 

So lets be clear

The REAL NHS and Unis have been ramping up capacity

The real NHS has reportedly started routing its own tests and getting them done avoiding the failing heavily funded private sector

Handcock and Johnsons private sector test and trace has been ramping up their profits and failures

 

"As it happens, NHS and Public Health England testing capacity has grown impressively from small numbers to around 120,000 a day. They make up more than half of all total capacity now. Crucially, they have 24 hour turnaround times for well over 95% of their tests. Remember it was PHE which was so maligned early in the pandemic for having so few labs,

but now it is PHE that is actually saving the private sector (they’ve begged state-run labs for help with processing, the Guardian reports)."

Edited September 16, 2020 by tobyjugg2