Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

They've already presented most of para 1 Unc,

 

but this is what worries me given the intent to not test:

"On average, the coronavirus accumulates about two changes per month in its genome. "

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293453/

 

 

Whats that going to do with a couple of million kids with undevloped immune systems to work with?

Let alone the rest of their families, and whoever they come into contact with

 

 

 

So with no testing until an outbreak is well in progress, and The 'world beating' Johnson waffle ap and surrounding quiz and barbecue trace infrastructure already quite clearly demonstrated it neither trustworthy, or up to the task even if it were 'trusted.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/englands-contact-tracers-making-handful-of-calls-a-month

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/08/just-10-enforcement-orders-issued-for-breach-of-uk-quarantine-rules

 

[tobyjugg2]

7 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

I meant what the Children's Commissioner was calling for i.e. all school children being tested. Whether that's defined as targeted or not it's a ridiculous suggestion

 

The UK has achieved 13m processed tests so far in about the last 6 months. England alone has 8m school children and the Children's Commissioner wants them tested every week. 

 

Worst disingenuous bit of false psuedo scientific garbage removed although expanded on below.
So broadly you are excusing NOT testing children, justified by Johnsons testing failures?

 

Thats surely one of the most effluent 'harse before the cart statements ever, even for you isn't it?

 

There is MORE than ample evidence that:

* Children do catch Covid and ARE infected, and can and do spread covid despite reduced symptoms

* Only the younger children 'tend' to have reduced severe symptoms - and only 'tends' NOT assured

* Children are still infected and despite many sneezing and coughing LESS/Less violently on average than older people - which is the basis for reduced transmission claims - transmission still occurs - especially with Covid being so high in the respiratory system. Reduced is NOT removed.

* What value reduced transmission once introduced into enclosed environments like schools and family homes?

 

So:

Given the UK governments claimed capacity of 300,000 tests per day even without the new 90 minute tests etc

and stats (when you can get them) showing barely 50,000ish  a day actually being 'effectively tested

 

... That leaves (based on Johnson and handcocks official claims) unused/ineffectively used 'spare' capacity of around a quarter of a million tests a day going spare

.. around 1.75 million tests a week not 'effectively used

... even without the new 90 minute tests

 

Enough 'spare' capacity already claimed to be there to test every school child once a month

even without the new tests or the necessary increasing of testing capacity ready for winter and this, let alone the next outbreak.

 

It is a simple fact that even with the above, Johnsons 'world beating' test and trace would be still failing short of the capacity needed even for the MINIMUM needed regular tests (eg care homes, schools, airports, frontline workers

but stopping spending the (£10B+ so far) money wasted on his serco etc private pals profits and population data grab - and spending it on competent testing and tracing could readily sort that..

- prevention is surely better than a cure and ALWAYS better than no cure

 

and anyway, What better use of tax payer money than educating, feeding and protecting children and protecting the families?

so seems utterly clear to me that NOT testing children and teachers and NOT quickly managing any potential outbreaks in schools IS beyond criminal.

 

Of course, Johnson and Handcock could be lying through their teeth about actual capacity, but lies aren't excuses for failures, let alone justifications to lie and fail more.

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

I don't know and if there is evidence against doing so I wish someone would explain it. 

 

If I have symptoms I can get tested but if I have symptoms I already know to stay away from people, self-isolate and I would of course. 

 

Isn't it those who don't have symptoms are at high risk of passing it on to others for the longest time? 

 

Absolutely Right - there isn't. There are only sentences taken out of proper context

 

Absolutely Right - and it seems clear MOST agree and would do the same

- although you can now get a test in those circumstances - although whether a negative result removes the self isolation requirement is not entirely clear is it?

 

Absolutely Right - and that is what is absolutely wrong with what Johnson is doing and reinforces point 1

 

We also need to consider that prevention is what is needed - catch people quickly once they do get infected and before they start transmitting as your point 3 states

- which necessitates testing people who are NOT symptomatic, especially those in close contact with others. eg Shop assistants, care workers, and soon to be school children and teachers.

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

250,000 unused/improperly used tests a day ...

 

Now I don't doubt that all of us (even the Johnson apologists) think that Johnson/handcocks claims about testing capacity are complete cobblers

but we need to stop there and correct that base, core issue first - lying about the situation.

 

You not only can't build a solution based on complete crap and lies, to cover lies, to cover lies

(or lies to cover up a 'plan' that the majority would consider monstrous and unacceptable).

and THAT simply has to be making things worse in the real world AND actually making genuine addressing of the issue nigh on impossible.

 

Then stage two

Properly target the testing capacity you actually know you have while you mitigate and address any shortfall in that capacity in a managed, open and honest way.

 

[tobyjugg2]

On 10/08/2020 at 17:38, honeybee13 said:

From the Telegraph. Apologies that you can't see much of this but you get the gist. HMG are getting local authorities to do what they should have been doing all along.

 

I'll try to find a non paywall version.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/10/troubled-test-trace-system-scaled-back-local-authorities-told/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AvwkDzJhMTVy

 

I've thought quite hard about that issue, and tried to define what I would do were I organising it.

 

First (bear with me) I would have call centre staff doing the first calls and clearing the easy ones, with failed first contacts passed to local authority experts.

You don't want experts efforts used up and overwhelmed where they are not necessary,

 

BUT these frontline 'cold callers' would not be people paid to sit around doing quizes - these would be very busy people, with set scripts, with a second layer of more skilled, experienced and qualified behind them dealing with the slightly more awkward ones.

It would NOT be overstaffed with clueless untrained numpties at any stage.

 

I simply dont know enough about the mechanisms already available, even if currently understaffed, to manage these sort of things but clearly a 111 type mechanism seems the place to start - NOT some company that has already demonstrated its penchant for overcharge and dramatic under-performance

and the LA track and trace is the blunt end which needs the info to manage the contacts and contain any spread

 

We always come back to needing a central point to co-ordinate, inform and manage - LA's are exceptionally good in theis area without doubt, but commonality and best practices need to be shared and implemented.

- but that simply cant be primarily politically driven - especially not by 'tame' scientists who will say whatever they are told, although clearly its a delicate area.

Something run by a Ruth May comes to mind as a first port of call.

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

To true HB.

 

Its when I get to the 'whats in the way' it all falls apart.

 

It seems quite clear that Johnson/Cummings will always use the Serco's of this world because they are also deeply embedded in the lies and cronyism and will say whatever they are told to say to maintain their profits.

 

Competent, conscientious people will have difficulties with that, and could not be assured of keeping their gobs shut when abuses, malpractice and deceit are uncovered.

[tobyjugg2]

and when you think there have been around 3,000 confirmed new covid cases in the last 3 days ...

 

The only golf club shaped recovery is going to be by the coronavirus

[tobyjugg2]

When you see the reports coming out that serco was involved from the earliest stages apparently to give expertise

 

and that resulted in 18 million plus people coming back into the UK untested from hotspots

.. and then even the general advice to self isolate after they had travelled across the UK home being withdrawn in the run-up to the lock down

 

That went well says cummings

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Oh and before bed

 

Officially leaked statements about a PHE report claiming that a UK study will say there is little evidence of children transmitting Covid.

 

Leakers stats look impressive until you realise he's on Johnson's SAGE so makes you think - huh - hows that then when all the science I've seen says different, and there are a number of reports of spreads in schools across the world from schools that had opened.

 

Then, little as the information 'leaked' is, you see

 

"largest studies in the world on coronavirus in schools"

and then

"The study was carried out in 100 institutions in the UK and is expected to be published later this year. About 20,000 pupils and teachers in 100 schools across England were tested to monitor the spread of the disease up to the end of the summer term – which runs from April-July in Britain."

 

Then you click.

That averages 200 pupils and staff per 'institution' checked

We dont know what these institutions are,

but I think over 200 is the average for infants schools. Other schools tend to be FAR larger.

Did they test everyone at each institution, or just some ??? we don't know yet - they are choosing not to leak that - Wonder why?

 

We currently understand that younger children (pre teenage) seem to present few/less symptoms

 (statistically) but large increases in teenager covid has been reported as lockdowns ease and they start to meet more.

 

I know my OH's grandson (mother a nurse) has remained at school in classes one third or less that normal, with the majority of kids having front line worker parents - so well aware of the discipline and hygiene necessary.

We know the schools maintain distancing, monitoring and maintenance which would be IMPOSSIBLE in normal class sizes.

 

So in a lock down situation, with class sizes significantly lower than normal (highly aware front-line workers kids mainly), increased distancing and cleaning made possible by SIGNIFICANTLY smaller class sizes

- Has maybe resulted in no great evidence of covid spread perhaps?

 

Well Whoopy do. Lets ramp the class sizes back up to 30+ and see what happens ..

 

 

Lets let the mail lead the way

Coronavirus infection rates are rising in ALL age groups under 65, Public Health England data shows with biggest surge in under-fives which 'should be watched very carefully'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8615423/Coronavirus-infection-rates-rising-age-groups-65-Public-Health-England-data-shows.html

 

 

and the ONS stats showing how similar the stats are

(a statistically significant  difference can be very little actual difference)

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/july2020

 

 

Notes:

1. These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which we mean private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Everything you need to know about Russia's coronavirus vaccine claims

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251722-everything-you-need-to-know-about-russias-coronavirus-vaccine-claims/

[tobyjugg2]

I think its politics and still presenting Brexits' 'nasty foreigners' ideologue as much as anything.

 

Surprised the world hasn't put the sick man of Europe on the naughty step.. especially with the constant figure fiddling and hiding.

Even with that and lack of testing we are up around a 1000+ a day new cases, 'despite compulsive serial liar Johnson claiming we are winning.

 

You only hide core statistics (actual sources for presented stats) when they are really bad.

Decent honest people don't even hide those.

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

persistent

 

What about the many many more 'refugees' coming back from holiday/business trips etc?

 

We don't want them traipsing across the country , using public transport or taxis, and stopping off to get such non essentials as food on their way to eventual isolation (maybe)  now do we.

 

and the hotels local to airports do need the business .... or haven't they donated enough to the Tory party?

 

Nice big hotels with pop up testing in the spare space at airports before the folks are shipped there ...

They might even get to chat with people who have had a far more 'exciting' trip who are also awaiting test results eh? ...

 

What a wealth of information on the spread of the virus that would give .....

Well, provided it could be presented with a 'suitable' 'desirable' message that is.

.. Otherwise it could end up 'just' another liability to Johnson rhetoric couldn't it?

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

What worries me is children returning to school ready for the colds and flu season, and the ramifications if you just say - what then.

 

Younger children (pre adolescence) do seem to tend to present far fewer symptoms (specifically coughing and sneezing blowing the covid viral load about), quite probably due to immature immune systems, although older children (teens) seem to be more in line with adult symptoms and spread - the majority of which are also apparently 'asymptomatic (they dont cough/sneeze/spread much)

 

but what will a traditional cough, cold or flu do to covid in a young child or asymptomatic teen/adult?  and then to everyone around them?

and to covids mutation rate?

 

All those (large majority apparently) covid asymptomatic who might not spread the virus due to their immune systems dealing with covid in a less dramatic way

- suddenly might be spreading it like a super spreader due to something as innocuous as a simple cold.

 

This autumn/winter is quite possibly the real danger zone.

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

There are reams of info and studies, but here's an easy to read summery with little techno-blurb

Note the 3 meter (10 feet) distance which has long been accepted for 'close (sic) proximity interactions with flu

 

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20101213/flu-spreads-fast-among-high-school-students

 

" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Droplets from an infected person can reach a susceptible person in close proximity, typically a distance of less than 3 meters [about 10 feet], making CPIs highly relevant for disease spread.""

 

 

Hows that going to work in classrooms with 15, let alone 30 kids or more?

or cramped corridors even with staged 'class' movements in schools with 250, let alone 1000+ of our children?

How long will the teachers last?

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

 Like I say, opinions are fine but they are worthless unlesss they have at least some factual basis.

 

 

 

ROFL Says the person who almost exclusively just posts his unsupported 'opinion', ... which actually seem to come straight from Boris the Liars Puerile book of Populist Jingles (2nd edition)

- but that is the populist way isn't it whether Russian troll bot or actual populist on a forum - point the finger of their own failings at others.

 

 

Back to reality:

People just have to google 'Johnson foreigner lies'

to get swamped with examples,

 

- or just 'Johnson lies' to get his divisive hate and division peddling on everything  racist/foreigner bashing/ misogynistic/the list goes on .. peddling to name but a few.

 

Heres just a couple of examples from literally thousands across the world:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/37-lies-gaffes-scandals-make-18558695

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-record-sexist-homophobic-and-racist-comments-bumboys-piccaninnies-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-brexit-middle-east-priti-patel-israel-balfour-robert-fisk-a9030356.html

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

 

Now your turn to catch up supporting your many 'opinion' posts Mr unsupported populist opinionist. ..

.. A little help: Try googling 'boris Johnson competent'

oops that  wont help you.

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

couple of points:

 

1. that seems to assume that the 'flu' pandemic will effectively spring up out of nowhere for some strange reason

 

2. Doesn't actually detail the political input and control to the processes

Lets not forget that Johnson et al are calling the privately run farce 'NHS test and trace'

[tobyjugg2]

Seems to me they are desperately hoping for some effective as yet unavailable/unproven mechanism to quell any issues London.

 

If there isn't one, they will undoubtedly just put something out claiming 'the science told us at the time' like with all the farces so far, like 'masks are a danger' 'travelling across the country while infected and visiting beauty spots is being a hero' 'we didn't know that people returning from hotspots abroad would be travelling across the country home and who would have thought that would spread infection'

 

 

Some interesting possible options appearing based on the 'decoy' technique. 

(Hijacking/blocking the 'spike' the virus uses to attach to cells - think of a barrier spray - or virus condom)

 

Heres an animal antibody based one

https://scienceblog.com/517955/aeronabs-promise-powerful-inhalable-protection-against-covid-19/

 

Heres a more 'traditional' sourced approach

(Just watch the iodine levels)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6780838/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-cell-seaweed-outperforms-remdesivir-blocking.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fucoidan

http://www.seaweed.ie/algae/phaeophyta.php

 

 

Background on COVID testing methods and Issues

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/standard-coronavirus-test-if-available-works-well-can-new-diagnostics-help-pandemic

 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

India can seem to manage 900,000 tests in a day

 

"India has carried out nearly 900,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, a record for the country, as it fights a surge of Covid-19 cases."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/global-report-india-hits-900000-daily-tests-amid-surge-in-coronavirus-cases

 

Even if India have done similar to Handcock in reaching a fuddled max tests figure, certainly makes the Tory (lack of) testing 'efforts' look really feeble doesn't it?

 

 

Of course populists would (mis)interpret and (mis)represent that as:

 'see loads of tests and they still have a surge - told you testing was worthless waste of money that could be given to serco and G4S'

 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, brassnecked said:

The Testing was an afterthought when it finally dawned on them you can't handle a SARS like  with a flu plan, so the let it rip spread and gain Herd Immunity was completely wrong idea.  they have been on the back foot ever since.

 

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

One of the things that annoys me is that every time the government is given a breathing space, like when they knew what was coming from Italy warning us or during lockdown, they seem to have turned their attention to something else rather than trying to be prepared for the next phase.

 

Quote

 

It's quite depressing that they're using Covid as an excuse to scrap Public Health England. Even people who didn't think the Andrew Lansley reforms were a good idea think it works well enough not to need to be merged into Data loss Dido's agency. I think we mentioned before that her Conservative MP husband wants to privatise the NHS.

 

 

I think we all keep slipping into a simple mistake:

We are assuming that the decisions are based on some scientific, medical reasoning, even if poorly.

 

I truly believe the reality isn't whats done (however badly) that is the primary driver, its that anything that might put Johnson in a bad light let alone anything that would clearly demonstrate his Lies/incompetence is AVOIDED at pretty much ANY cost.

 

So bad decisions generate cover ups NOT lessons learned and solutions.

 

Once you take a look from that perspective, things actually do seem to make more (however horrendous) 'sense' (sic)

Its little different from Trump - just somewhat less 'brash.

 

[tobyjugg2]

I'm not so sure on that either BN

 

The right wing needs a front man and a stupid one happy to lie at that.

 

and despite claims to the contrary, Johnson may be sly, but he is undoubtedly stupid, and more than happy to lie.

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

If Trump hasn't managed it, what the heck can the ERG do?

(Other than poison and cheat UK citizens for their profits and MAYBE compete with other tax havens and money washing machines for drug cartel, crime lord, oligarch (oops already have that) and dodgy dictator money - that will probably then be invested in the EU and developing nations - not here)

 

The EU is already replacing London. At least a trillion in assets had left the UK in the LAST financial year alone, and VAST sums more are now in a sort of half here and half there state in EU subsidiaries.

 

 

Lets not forget Smogg and Redwood moved a raftload of their assets out of the UK ages ago.

 

Worth a quick read:

https://www.eversheds-sutherland.com/global/en/what/articles/index.page?ArticleID=en/Financial_services/Ten-things-asset-managers-end-transitional-period_130820

 

Do be wary of what the UK bodies 'state they want and expect and will do as opposed to any internationally agreed UK/EU arrangement

 

eg the UK will put various bits of EU stuff into UK law to maintain equivalence is NOT the same as the EU have agreed equivalence access based on these actions - especially as the UK insists it can just unilaterally amend them whenever it wishes.

Thats not an agreement any more than me agreeing to sell someone a phone for £10 then when you turn up I say no, its £20 for a turnip now..

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Well Johnson cant afford to have competent people running such high profile things can he

.. when he's such a blatant useless numpty

 

Bet Johnsons regretting getting rid of Javid now ..

 

... although theres still the major finacial crash to come that Sunak was set up to take the fall for.

Edited August 19, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

of course johnson thinks its the other way around,

bet the truth is neither and both and more

[tobyjugg2]

what a Trump like misrepresentational response as usual cjregg

 

There are far better ways to manage than wholesale lockdown of people who may or may not be infected.

Ways which would minimise damage to business, the people affected and the nation rather than maximise it.

The only way they could make the selected option worse was not to bother monitoring the lockdon when those people eventually get home ...

Oh yes, of course, that is by and large the case isn't it.

 

and even if they did monitor and test after the traipse home, few people would think that locking people down AFTER they traipse across the country to their home without them being tested a rational approach. Except maybe Cummings, Johnson, Handcock - and you it would seem.

 

Testing them would be a better option for all concerned (except perhaps anyone who wants the worst possible option) as stated and as ignored by your frankly ridiculous responses.

Edited August 25, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and we have the first official lab confirmed case of reinfection although its been reported from China for a while

 

Despite the ongoing nay sayers, the bases do seem to have been covered. The person affected did not seem to have severe symptoms with either episode, although he was clearly symptomatic in the first episode.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/24/case-of-man-with-coronavirus-for-second-time-stokes-reinfection-fears-hong-kong

 

" young man has been diagnosed with coronavirus more than four months after he recovered from a first episode of the disease"

 

"Genetic sequencing by scientists at the University of Hong Kong established that the second episode, in an otherwise healthy young man, was caused by a slightly different strain."

"The researchers say they are certain this is a case of reinfection and not of the virus lingering in the body, not least because the first genetic sequence belonged to a different clade, or lineage, than the second. "

"sequencing also showed that the man’s (second infection) virus was similar to the strain circulating in Europe" - from where he was returning.

 

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-first-case-reinfection-man-hong-kong

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/first-covid-19-reinfection-documented-in-hong-kong-researchers-say/

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-confirmed-case-reinfection.html

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/first-covid-19-reinfection-case-hong-kong

 

"published investigations varied on the conclusion that infected persons had approximate three-month COVID-19 immunity with developed antibodies."