UK Power supplies Winter 2022/2023. Are you prepared ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Partly due to Russia invading Ukraine, there could be significant issues with power supplies over the coming Winter.

 

UK Government are looking at increasing power supplies from coal powered generator stations. But any additional power generated may not be sufficient to ensure power is available 24/7 over the Winter.

 

Ensuring security of electricity supplies for winter 2022 to 2023 - GOV.UK

WWW.GOV.UK

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Letters from the BEIS Secretary of State to the National Grid Electricity System Operator and operators of coal plants.

 

UK Government are preparing for possible power outages during the Winter period, as If the UK does experience very cold periods, demand could exceed supply.

 

Are you prepared, if there is no electric or gas supply to your homes for many hours or a few days ?

 

keep an eye on this subject over the coming months, as it will be front page news as we move into Autumn.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

There are suggestions.

 

Use any barbeque outside (using wood/charcoal available) to heat food.  Do not use indoor or in enclosed spaces.

 

Purchase ready to eat foods such as tinned produce, cartons of long life milk,fruit juices, dried fruit, cereals etc

 

Have a supply of candles, torches, lanterns, supply of batteries, battery powered FM radio ( BBC radio 2 & 4 on FM may be used for any announcement on restoration of power)

 

Plenty of blankets, warm clothing.

 

For those who can afford it, generators or power storage devices for when electric is available to store up.

 

Not saying there will be power outages, but given current world situation and the power network having been close  in recent years to being shut down  or have restriction applied, the risk is as high as it has been for a very long time.

 

Personally, I will take sensible steps in ensuring I have essentials without going too far. We don't need people queuing for toilet rolls again !

 

[unclebulgaria67]

National Grid asks for emergency permission to pump more gas to Europe to fill storage facilities | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Wracked by a full-blown energy crisis, operators have ramped up the capacity of pipelines exporting gas from Britain to the Netherlands as Europe braces...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

London narrowly avoided post-heatwave blackout

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The hottest UK days on record led to extreme constraints in the power system amid hiked up demand.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Does the UK have large scale storage for liquefied gas ?

 

Power bill for just one month could soar to £500 in January after Russia cuts back Europe's supplies | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Wholesale gas prices surged yesterday after Vladimir Putin's regime halved supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, in...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

High costs of energy are feeding into increased cost of goods and services, which will help ensure that inflation is high for longer.  I think some predictions are for UK inflation rate to reach as high as 14%.

 

Are we headed for a winter of discontent under the current Government ?  Even those who backed the Tories in 2019 to 'get Brexit done' will be thinking that their living standards have dropped significantly in the last few years. 

 

How many businesses will go bust, due to increased costs of running their businesses, without an increase in income ?     If people are having to pay £3k plus in household energy costs,  this will severely impact on consumer spending levels and businesses who have just about survived during Covid, will now be at risk of having to close.

[unclebulgaria67]

Have thought for many years, even before the 2007 crash, that the Western economic system is broken and has been for a very long time.

 

The huge gap in wealth between top 1% and the rest is too wide. And tax havens enable Governments to encourage money laundering, tax evasion, tax avoidance, shell companies where ownership is unknown etc.

 

And on the topic of energy, Governments have been serving the interests of the oil companies, energy companies and those who invest to make money.  Rather than have a strategy of ensuring investment to produce energy in cheapest possible way and insulating more buildings to reduce energy consumption.

[unclebulgaria67]

Housing developers could be blocked from starting new west London projects until 2035 | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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The Greater London Authority has told developers that it may take more than 10 years for capacity to rise to a level at which it can...

 

Sounds like the working from home economy is at risk as well, if the Internet goes down for extended periods, as the data centres have no power or restrictions placed on them. 

 

Hopefully the power will stay flowing, but the modern world we live in is all about technology that uses a lot of electric. 

[unclebulgaria67]

Slightly off topic  but I can see this happening in UK soon.  Tinned Spam and tinned ham in security protected boxes !

 

NYC drug store has put $3.99 tins of SPAM in security cases.

NYC drug store put $3.99 tins of SPAM in theft-proof cases as crime wave continues to grip Big Apple | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Twitter user Willy Staley noticed the new policy, where the meat substitute that sells for $3.99 is sealed in a plastic container at the...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I think the do not pay movement is a positive step, as it is advocating paying what is affordable.

 

If the resellers cannot buy gas/electric as their customers are not paying enough to them, then Government would be forced to step in to avoid a crisis.

 

What action would Governments take ?   If the market has failed, then same as with the bailout of Banks in 2007/2008.  Government would most likely borrow large sums to take ownership of some of the big energy producers and resellers.  

[unclebulgaria67]

On BBC News night yesterday they were talking about the economic crisis and imagining the possibility that some large businesses who are high energy users could be restricted to 3 days working during the Winter. 

 

Given the very high costs of energy, I guess in some cases, businesses might decide that it is uneconomical to continue production anyway, as they could not pass on the increased costs of production to buyers. 

 

Governments including UK should look at directly subsidising the cost of energy to keep the prices down, as if they fail to do so, the economic consequences could be greater.  They would need to do the sums, but by my reckoning, the cost of Government paying to keep energy costs at current prices would be cheaper than just letting the prices continue to rise and then dealing with the damage caused.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Many people I speak to on the subject of these inflated energy bills predict there will be civil unrest if the Government does not act sufficiently to reduce bills to affordable levels.

 

And it won't just be the anarchists involved in protests, but also ordinary people including many previous Tory voters who will take to the streets.

 

Either the Government will have to subsidise energy bills costing tens of billions  or they will have to renationalise some of the companies they privatised in the 1980's. I think they might do the former as the latter is partly reversing a Thatcher policy.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

UK needs proportional representation. But I would also like to see more independent candidates genuinely representing their local areas. 

 

Tories will lose many seats to Lib Dems and Labour at next election, but it is possible they might win most seats, without holding a majority.  Lib Dems and Labour need to forge a left of Centre alliance, with parties not fielding candidates where they cannot win.

[unclebulgaria67]

The future is off grid or non carbon ?  Every roof with solar panels and storage either in house or communal. Wind turbines in every neighbourhood. 

 

Perhaps the big energy suppliers understand their business could decline in the decades to come, so they are trying to maximise their profits now and Ofgem are helping them ?

[unclebulgaria67]

There is a development of private flats in Bath, where they have a community energy system, that is supposed to have the latest eco friendly technology.   I did read about it and it sounded very expensive to install.  Not sure what peoples bills have been like. 

 

I have heard of complaints with such community systems, where the bills have been higher than for a conventional gas boiler system. 

 

Perhaps the technology will improve, particularly batteries to store the energy, better insulation methods and more efficient household goods to limit energy drained.

[unclebulgaria67]

I am questioning the way in which my current supplier British Gas is running accounts

 

Earlier in the year, by my own actions, I paid a lump sum to reduce my outstanding bill and I increased the DD amount, so that over the year, my account would have a very low balance. 

 

With the increases due in October 2022 and January 2023, the increased DD amount would not have the impact I originally intended. But at least the debt level would be reduced to a manageable level.

 

British Gas have now lowered my DD's from September, presumably based on the £400 the Government have announced so far.     But given the large increases expected, I would have thought they would have maintained the DD's at the level I decided on, rather than reduce them.

 

I moved away from British Gas previously due to uncompetitive rates and tinkering with DD levels.   But I was forced back following closure of previous suppliers. 

[unclebulgaria67]

I believe some of the new technology e.g. heat pumps, requires a lot of electric to keep them running. 

[unclebulgaria67]

Schools consider THREE-DAY week to pay for teacher salary rises and crippling energy costs | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Headteachers are considering implementing three-day weeks at schools as they struggle to deal with booming energy costs and staff salaries rising...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

@honeybee13

 

I think if you search online, there is a lot of talk about the agenda of the elites.  Every Daily Mail comments section is filled with the conspiracies about how the 99% of the worlds population are being manipulated by Governments, plus the wealthy, hedge funds etc. 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

How do you think many businesses would cope with a 3 day week over the Winter period  ?

 

There has been some talk about businesses being required to operate for 3 days only, due to the energy cost and supply crisis ?

 

If the schools are only open 3 days per week,  then parents may be restricted to working only the days their kids are at school. 

 

It would not surprise me if there were 3 day weeks when temperatures fell below a certain set figure.

[unclebulgaria67]

I would want to know how much the reduction in supplies from Russia had actually reduced overall world supply levels.

 

If the market prices companies are paying for energy are stupidly inflated, because there is manipulation going on, as producers/sellers are taking advantage of Ukraine war, then Governments on an international basis should be agreeing actions to stop this.

 

I was listening to LBC radio one morning this week and there was an energy market specialist who was saying that energy companies buying supplies had seen prices double and treble over a short period of time.

 

In the meantime, UK Government should do the same as French and pay the cost of keeping the prices down to protect domestic and business users as well as the economy. Does not make any sense for Governments to come up with all kinds of payments to domestic consumers to help them through Winter.  Tackle the problem at the energy companies end, by supporting them to keep the tariffs reduced.

[unclebulgaria67]

Using Ukraine war to manipulate markets ?

 

In a few years time I expect some of the people involved will be subject investigations.

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I am hearing quite a lot of discontent being built up with people fearing the coming months. Some are struggling financially now and think it will get worse for their families. And with Government out of action while they wait for a new PM, they don't have any confidence there will be help coming that would reduce the financial impact that will be suffered.

 

For business owners it must be incredibly difficult to plan at the moment, as they don't know what support the Government will be offering. Do they reduce number of hours the business is open for to save on energy usage ?  Perhaps a 4 day working week for offices to save on energy costs ?  Would Supermarkets cut back on hours of opening to save money ?  What would this mean for part-time staff relying on the hours they could work in the evenings ?

 

Don't believe Government have considered all aspects to the energy/cost of living crisis

[unclebulgaria67]

Issue with fracking in the UK is that companies looking to do this would be taking a huge risk in spending money on exploration and then not knowing how much supply they will find.  And if there are many incidents of earth tremors and environmental damage, then the costs of compensation may exceed revenues. UK is totally different to US due to size of country and proximity between drilling sites and residential areas.

 

Is fracking really a viable option in the UK ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Personally, I favour other forms of energy prodiuction.   Fracking would take took long and is too much of a risk for a small Island nation.

 

Surely tidal energy must be the way forward as an island in the north Atlantic and also more wind turbines.