Nice and simple: That sort of herd immunity can only be achieved with a more 'stable' (less change) infection and one with a VERY high level of immunity to reinfection once infected COV has neither The best we can hope for is low levels of severe illness once infected/inoculated, and the demonstrated mutation levels alone make that unlikely It IS possible that we will go through this winter without severe outcomes, despite well over a 100 people a DAY currently still dying from it in the UK alone even before the peak infection projection times .. I put the odds of that at less than 20% I think it far more likely that very damaging breakthroughs, reinfections and mutations will occur.

There is no such thing as herd immunity to covid for the current adult generations - There might be in 10 years with vaccine development and /or 100,000,000 deaths - there isnt now. Stop listening to prats like Johnson who say if not now - when - when the real issue is not that not now Start there.

Its a simple fact that UK stats on this are hard to come by? Astonishing in itself, as waaaay back in Dec 2020 there were estimated to be 300,000 people with effects from Covid lasting more than 5 weeks .. yet rather than target identifying the issue - it largely gets buried - undoubtedly to allow (in)credible denial seems to me. .. 'I dont recognise that issue' say the Johnsonets : because you've deliberated not looked or you've buried it says I Updated estimates of the prevalence of long COVID symptoms - Office for National Statistics WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

I mean, look at this shoddy pile of crap full of assumptions based on negligible actual reality. yet it is referenced by many other UK statements.. "The views about long COVID in children were collected from seven young people aged 13- to 18-years-old, five families whose children, aged 10- to 16-years-old, have long COVID or suspected long COVID, and four GPs and three paediatricians, between 9 March and 30 April 2021. " Call that a study? I call it a farce, probably not warranting a C grade paper for a 15 year olds mock exams. Note to student: Paper was supposed to entail 6-10 hours work. July: Long Covid in children | News and features | University of Bristol WWW.BRISTOL.AC.UK The clinical definition of long COVID in children is at present very limited and poorly understood by doctors, according to a new report published today...

shows whos policies are working better I think HB. While I was looking for some UK based figures on long covid in children, about the atrocious best I could find from UK sources (compare these to the Israeli reports) apart from a few very out of date limited studies which take little account of other than original strain was : * Its somewhere between 2 - 14%, but we assume that its the lower end based on assuming children who were sick would probably report it and I see no evidence of that so thats good enough to support my desired outcome - and even that is if the kids could get to see a doctor for something not perceived as life threatening/emergency, if the doctor didn't diagnose it as 'growing pains, cold or such and come back if it hasn't passed with puberty, and the outstanding fact that those who prefer to see it that way haven't bothered to note or look - as demonstrated by the lack of actual figures and plethora of outlandish/outrageous assumptions

Oh and regarding long covid in children, I have long tended to look to sources other than the UK for evidence, as the evidence I see from the UK indicates selectively not looking for what they don't want - and claiming 'I don't recognise that' from known liars. so - lets look at a repeatedly demonstrated valuable, coherent, comprehensive, well managed and reported ... and honest (as far as I can see) source: Israel reports that 11.2 percent of all children infected with SARS-CoV-2 suffer from long COVID - World Socialist Web Site WWW.WSWS.ORG Despite the lie that vaccination of adults “protects” children, countries with high vaccination rates experience a surge in COVID-19 cases among...

Its not black and white, one or the other HT, and I think it a HUGE mistake to think in those terms. There are sensible mitigations, for example like masks on public transport, which allow the options of middle paths to be trodden The problem needs to be (and should always have been - but i do believe charity begins at home) as a world wide problem - not nations sitting on millions of doses they cant use, and shafting their neighbors. I think the UK has been one of the very worst examples of that, and sadly others are doing the same - and the UK is reaping the fallout of that after rather stupidly pissing on its necessary supply chain partners. We are NOT energy sufficient (oil or energy - we rely on Frances nuclear energy, Russian gas, and middle eastern oil) - and those shortfalls cant be addressed in a few years let alone months. We would struggle to be food sufficient even if Johnson hadn't just stabbed half or more of our farming industry in the back We aren't even PPE or pcr sufficient despite the time we've had - due to profiteering middlemen pals getting preference for PPE while existing UK sources were ignored rather than developed.

Increased spread might not cause vast amounts of severe illness at the moment BUT increased spread = increased mutation and new variants, and new variants that spread have learned to evade vaccination, and new variant vaccines have proven 'problematic' Masks, space and ventilation work against ALL variants and spread - but only IF widely implemented. and although the articles like the following wont say it, I will. Dodgy PCR tests/quality of testing wont help at all, any more than NOT testing inbound (re)entrants to the country "according to a regional public health official, after a number of cases where people tested positive using lateral flow tests – but then negative with PCR. Anomalies have been reported by people in south-west England over the past week, with one public health official saying they were aware of a “high number” of inconsistent test results, according to reports by the i newspaper." Isolate if you have Covid symptoms but negative PCR, says local health official | Coronavirus | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Advice follows discovery of anomalies in which people had positive lateral flow tests but negative lab results

and shapps wants to 'scrap costly pcr tests for travellers' Well. as there is no reason whatsoever apart from profiteering of Tory pals behind the cost of those expensive compulsory (by tory gov) pcr tests ... which should cost no more than 15-20 quid a piece maximum - probably less What he really means is he wants to dump any tests and get back to infecting the herd in time for the next outbreaks peak Grant Shapps wants to scrap costly PCR tests for travellers by half-term | Travel & leisure | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Shift in policy in England would mean such Covid tests being replaced by cheaper lateral flow ones

plus: Schools told to stock up on tinned food amid fears of shortages WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK Leading caterer writes to hundreds schools alerting them to problems with ‘sourcing, packing and distribution’

and i wonder how many of those so very few 'privileged people to get such vast amounts of private care at a cost to the taxpayer of £400M a month while the NHS was pressured to the point of collapse and crucial tests and operations were cancelled ... were the rich and powerful? PLUS more on cronyism: ‘SECRET PPE CONTRACT ’: Johnson’s government has been urged to end “secrecy” after it emerged that a Covid contract handed to a Conservative Party donor’s firm is still under wraps after 18 months. Clipper Logistics – whose boss has donated £730,000 to the Tories – secured a deal to deliver personal protective equipment (PPE) last year without facing any rival bids. Government figures show the deal for the firm’s services was renewed at £650,000 a month – which means the contract has cost the taxpayer an estimated £11m. Labour is demanding details of the contract be published. - INDEPENDANT

Looking after private pals for doing nowt: "The Treasury agreed in March 2020 to pay for a deal to block-book the entire capacity of all 7,956 beds in England’s 187 private hospitals along with their almost 20,000 staff to help supplement the NHS’s efforts to cope with the unfolding pandemic. It is believed to have cost £400m a month. However, the Centre for Health and the Public Interest’s report (Pdf) says that on 39% of days between March 2020 and March this year, private hospitals treated no Covid patients at all and on a further 20% of days they cared for only one person. Overall, they provided only 3,000 of the 3.6m Covid bed days in those 13 months – just 0.08% of the total. Private hospitals treated just eight Covid patients a day during pandemic – report | Coronavirus | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Exclusive: Private hospitals in England also performed far fewer operations on NHS-funded patients despite multi-billion pound deal with government Labour would claw back money spent on failing Covid contracts, Reeves pledges WWW.CIVILSERVICEWORLD.COM Shadow chancellor also promises “biggest wave of insourcing in a generation” if party wins next general election

More Brex-hits Intel no longer considering UK for huge chip factory because of Brexit WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK ‘We now have about 70 proposals for sites across Europe from maybe 10 different countries,’ Intel chief says and not unexpected: EU rejects request to change NI protocol - follow Boris Johnson news live WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK Follow live updates below

TY HB Back to reality - No surprises that morally vacuous Boris 'Inveterate and unapologetic LIAR' Johnsons conference speech - was full of lies - many of which have already been called out as lies - but he repeats them anyway Eight false claims made in Boris Johnson’s Conservative party conference speech WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK Not for the first time, the prime minister delivered a major speech that was economical with the truth Including the claimed £3000 extra for maths and science teachers - which is just a mini-me version of the undelivered prior plan which was quietly dropped without delivering anything of consequesnce - except a brief headline - and anyone who expects owt to be delivered this time ... can lend me 50 quid and I'll pay it back with interest when this Johnson pledge is .. this time ... PM unveils £3,000 boost for teachers – year after scrapping similar scheme WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK PM also praises work of Brampton Manor academy in East Ham which now ‘sends more kids to Oxbridge than Eton’

Interesting that when I came here first today the link said page 18 last page + got a uh oh when clicked on it Now says 17 pages and works

Quote of the decade: After whipping a vote to NOT feed UK kids The prime minister of a country with over 2000 food banks is spending money on internet adverts featuring himself eating. Otto Von Jizzmark@Ottojizzmark

but as pointed out in one of the comments (seemingly in reference to the 'policing bill' making demonstrations a crime at the whim of government: Deborah Meaden @DeborahMeaden I'm beginning to suspect that the Govt knows there will be a lot of unrest and reasons to trigger Demonstrations this winter and so instead of tackling the root cause, they will seek to stifle them through legislation. #Winterofdiscontent

too true HB and just for the record, Malthouse brazenly lying through his teeth ... as they would usually expect get away with it Minister says he has ‘no idea where Boris Johnson is’, despite PM sitting metres away WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK Kit Malthouse caught out as prime minister dodges Good Morning Britain interview

Supply fears lead EU vaccine industry to seek home comforts WWW.REUTERS.COM European companies playing key supporting roles in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing are working to move production and supply chains closer... The U.S. Defense Production Act with its system of rated orders that prioritise U.S. crisis response, also hobbled Merck's ability to serve vaccine makers elsewhere in the world. In response, Merck in March laid out plans to invest 25 million euros in France to make disposable plastic materials for bioreactors, an essential input for COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing.

I see Gods come out in support of the climate activists blocking roads. Lets see the police clear this Sadiq Khan warns climate emergency ‘on our doorstep’ - live WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK Follow live updates below North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years WWW.PNAS.ORG The North Atlantic jet stream impacts North American and European societies and is expected to be influenced by ongoing 21st-century... Jet stream could lurch off course by 2060, driving extreme weather in US and Europe WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK ‘Our results serve as a warning,’ scientist says and its nothing compared to what is coming with the models above only referencing the last thousand years or so, when its over 7000 years since we've seen anything even approaching what we are seeing currently China is preparing for the Northern ice vanishing

and unlike yapping useless frost and lying incompetent Johnson, I have no doubts whatsoever that France will deliver on their assurances France threatens to use energy supply to ‘put pressure’ on UK to follow Brexit deal WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK French minister says UK ‘depends on our energy supplies’ as row escalates wahhh - They are bulling us after we threatened them says the brexit BS press France says: "For example, we can imagine, since we're talking about energy, ... the United Kingdom depends on our energy supplies. It thinks that it can live all alone, and bash Europe." According to the latest UK government statistics France exported a net 8,700 gigawatt hours of energy to Britain in 2020. The warning by France comes as Britain is set to enter what ministers have called a “difficult winter” – with soaring energy prices and shortages of some products including fuel. Johnsons' Suez crisis MKII another Brexit Hit (Brex-hit? (soundslike))

We need quite a bit more of broadcasters pulling politicians up for talking doodoo The right wing will happily accuse others of it with little actual reason, its way past time the real bullshitters were held to account on the public airways Watch: Nick Robinson tells Boris Johnson to ‘stop talking’ on Radio 4's Today programme WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK BBC's Nick Robinson told Boris Johnson to "stop talking" as the pair clashed live on air this morning.The Radio 4 presenter seemed to lose his cool...

but just so we NEVER forget

Well at least this time there was some action taken other than cover it up Conservative Conference Member Suspended After Women 'Violently Assaulted' | HuffPost UK WWW.HUFFINGTONPOST.CO.UK A woman has gone public about an alleged incident at the Midlands Hotel in Manchester.

Wonder if it a coincidence that all the Facebook whistle blower stuff is hitting the fan currently? Mind you the 60 minutes report was sadly unimpressive - as was cleggs poor effort at earning his pieces of silver