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Should we trust Sunak or the next PM to fix the Country's problems? (title revised 24/10/22)


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According to Alastair Campbell on Twitter, anti-Le Pen parties are pointing to RN's fiscal policies and saying they'll cause a 'Truss-style market meltdown'.

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Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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she and  johnson need to be kicked off the taxpayers credit card - for starters

I'm certain there is cause - taking up 'jobs' when they shouldn't, bringing the nation into disrepute with their antics ..

I'm sure it would be a very popular act from a new labour guv

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Been perusing the actual figures on the polls above wondering where the '16% claimed for deform comes from?

I understand that there are 'weighted' end results based on secret calculations ...

 

Probably going to repeat this later, but remember that the ukip/brexit/reform/deform party has ALWAYS had poll speculation FAR better than their actual  performance at elections - by large margins.

SO:

The labor and Tory votes come largely from simply the people who say they will vote for them - sorted Lab 43% Tory 20%, with maybe another small 1-2% coming from the weightings of the 'not sures'

Greens largely get what is declared from 'other' , although with another declared green bit from the 'pressed' question

 

So as the share of the voting displayed in 'other' granted to reform/deform is around 11%, where does the '16% too often being reported come from?

Seems that reform has been granted as beneficiary of effectively ALL the don't knows and wont says, who when pressed didn't actually declare for someone else ... effectively adding 40%+ to their reported polling %

- rather strange given their consistent under-performance compared to polling - or perhaps that is the cause of the higher rating eh?

 

Now I admit the possibility (probability?) of wingers being ashamed of declaring their support for the yuckey lemon end of the spectrum ... but surely  that should affect the 'Torys as well?

Maybe the statisticians have simply weighted in that deform wingers are simply more likely to lie?

 

But - without 'weightings' and assumptions that faragits will get everything that isnt declared as a definite and unequivocal 'not that Piers Morgan'

- reform is on around 11% it seems.

 

Add to that the history of polling a lot less than the hype - and the simple fact that faragit wingers seem to be spread across the country (presumably skulking in their moms spare room despite being 45+) and greens and lib dems seem to be community minded - I think two seats will be an epic result for farage.

Hardly the opposition - far more raving wingnut party.

 

and importantly - Has farage got a home in clacton yet?

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Interesting that the right wingers whinge about the BBC

"

BBC’s Question Time is an institution of British broadcasting and political debate. When you’ve been on the air for nearly 50 years, you’re bound to be accused of bias. Critics from both the right and the left have said that Question Time’s guests and audience questions too often lean one way or the other. It’s difficult to tell who’s correct without tallying it all up – so Matt Walsh and his team at Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture have done just that.

In a new analysis of Question Time guest appearances since 2014 – published exclusively in The Conversationthey’ve found that the balance between political parties has been pretty fair, but when you remove politicians there is a clear preference for rightwing voices. The top five non-politician guests have been journalists representing the Spectator, TalkTV, the Telegraph and GB News.

 

 

the Conversation

 

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The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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That's interesting, isn't it? It's the first time I've seen proof of what some people have been complaining about. Farage, for one, has had too much exposure considering he's either not been an active politician until recently, or when active represents a party that has one MP - a defector.

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Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

yep - farage 10 times on question time alone - we haven't seen binface that many times have we?

 

and has he bought a home in clacton yet?

OR as he indicated - is he going to NOT represent them from afar?

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

LOL, dont you mean Why has count Binface NOT been on question time being as farage has .. repeatedly

 

 

I mean, isnt one of farages best efforts getting literally a few votes more than screaming lord such (monster raving loony party) - although he did do better in south thanet

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

The previously little-known Chinese-American businessman’s fortune was transformed by the British taxpayer through 11 government contracts worth approximately £4.3bn for lateral flow tests (LFTs) made in China and sold by Innova.

Charles Huang says contracts generated $2bn (£1.6Bn) profit

 

The government fast-tracked the company after its British representatives sent a direct email to Dominic Cummings, the chief adviser to the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, in July 2020. And, a Guardian investigation has found, the fast-tracking of Innova was supported by the then chancellor Rishi Sunak’s team at the Treasury.

Innova became for a period of at least four critical months the only company authorised to supply rapid Covid tests in the UK, despite scores of others developing similar kits.

At the time, the government spending watchdog raised concerns

 

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Exclusive: Rishi Sunak’s team helped fast-track deal with firm founded by Charles Huang, who says contracts generated $2bn profit

 

Edited by tobyjugg2
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The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
On 16/06/2024 at 13:37, honeybee13 said:

According to Alastair Campbell on Twitter, anti-Le Pen parties are pointing to RN's fiscal policies and saying they'll cause a 'Truss-style market meltdown'.

 
WWW.MIRROR.CO.UK

The subscription costing £95 gives the ex-PM free shipping from the retail giant, as well as the ability to stream films and TV shows such as My Fault...

 

 

Rather like farage ..

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

As Nigel Farage launches party’s manifesto, Institute for Fiscal Studies says ‘the package as a whole is problematic’

 

"Reform UK has published its manifesto. They plan tax cuts which they say will cost £70bn; however our analysis shows that they’ve miscalculated, and the actual cost will be at least £93bn.

Reform UK says it will fund these tax costs with £70bn of savings and additional revenue, but it provides few details.

Their proposal to change Bank of England reserve rules is over-stated by at least £15bn, and the cost would likely fall on businesses and consumers, not banks.

These two factors mean that Reform UK’s plans have a total unfunded cost of at least £38bn – about twice the unfunded cost of Liz Truss’ ill-fated 2022 “mini-budget”.

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Reform more or less said it's what they will be campaigning about but they don't expect to be implementing the plans.

Dan Neidle thinks the cost is about double the amount of Truss's mini-budget and the IFS think the figures are out by £10s of billions.

Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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Hope the tories, labor, lib dems and the chap farage shunted out are all out in clacton campaigning and pointing out that

* He doesn't live there and has effectively said he doesn't even want to be there and has presented his contempt of them

* Hes not just fiscally incompetent, hes fiscally lying

* If they do vote for him he'll just hammer expenses and swan off doing whatever he likes at their expense

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Seen a number of videos online of interviews with people in town centres around the UK. Those that say they will vote Reform can accurately be described as 'Gammon Faced'. So frustrated with life in 2024 and yearning to switch the clock back many decades, they don't really care about the policies of Reform. What appears to appeal to them about Reform is an old fashioned nostalgic outlook, of trying to get the country back to how it was a very long time ago. Yes much of this is about immigration, but it is also about many other issues such as Equalities legislation, Human Rights etc, which they believe have gone too far.

For the above reasons, I don't think many who are looking to vote Reform, will switch their votes back to other parties they have voted for before. From what I have seen in polling, 70% were previously Tory and about 30% Labour.

The Tories under Sunak can no longer appeal to those who now back Reform. For example, I doubt any Tory Government would support leaving ECHR, because that would most likely be opposed by the majority in the UK. And many Tory MP's would not support leaving ECHR and the House of Lords would block anyway ignoring any conventions to give way to The Commons.

A combination of Brexit, Reform lead by Farage and the average age of this voter demographic is quite likely to lead to the extinction of The Conservative party. What may happen after this election is that the right of politics splits into new groups. Some Tory MP's are likely to jump ship and join Reform. And others will try to relaunch the Conservative brand as a centre right modern party. This could possibly lead to the Lib Dems becoming main opposition party at some point.

The outcome of this election could well significantly change UK politics forever. And it is not just about the future of the Tories, Labour with a huge majority may find it difficult to keep some on the left happy with Government progress on tackling some issues. So we may see a fracture within Labour support and new parties formed.

 

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Posted (edited)

Well farage is just a Johnson number two isn't he ..

(or johnson is a farage number two?)

so you can understand their confusion

 

Has farage got a clacton home yet? Even an airBnB or a beach hut?

No? No surprises there then eh?

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

No HB, I dont think they are currently. Just different figureheads - and I'm not that sure about the second part.

Half the Tory cabinet are hard right/poopulists and many of the Tory doners

 

Oh - and why are people talking about the 'extinction of the Tory party with 20% of the vote and 70-90 seats ..

But the rise of the Reform party with a media driven 11% of the vote and - 4 seats being seen as an outside chance epic victory?

 

I'll bet if there were a kkk party in the UK it would do similarly to the reform core vote and split the hard right vote

The Uk is very clanish - and consider themeselves tory or labour or whatever - although the extreme parties now do seem to be cracking that edifice somewhat - I hope

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Oh - and why are people talking about the 'extinction of the Tory party with 20% of the vote and 70-90 seats ..

But the rise of the Reform party with a media driven 11% of the vote and - 4 seats being seen as an outside chance epic victory?

 

Correction

'rise' of the Reform party with (unwarranted IMO) media driven alleged 11% of a low voter turnout (half that % in a high turnout) - with 4 seats being seen as an outside chance epic victory?

 

Without the massive media visibility they'd no doubt be languishing down on about 4-6%

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Why? -  Yawn, more of the same

this time no doubt after supporting their bad  candidates and whining that their 'minor' misdemeanors (well they didn't actually kill anyone did they?) were from weeks or more ago, and farage and tice saying they didn't have time to vet them because of sunaks notice of election - its also someone/anyone elses fault that their candidates weren't vetted properly ...

while farage shouts his nonsense over every question

 

how predictable and boring. Binface would be more entertaining ... and meaningful

Edited by tobyjugg2

The Tory Legacy

Record high: Taxes, Immigration, Excrement in waterways, energy company/crony profits

Crumbling: Hospitals, Schools, council services, businesses and roads

If only the Govt had thrown a protective ring around care homes

with the same gusto they do around their crooked MPs

 

However bad you think things are ..

Could be worse - could be Farage

Sergei Lavrov:  “an ally” 

"echoing Putin's vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine."

 

 

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