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Coronavirus – why does the UK seem to have such a high death rate?

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If you look at this World Meters

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

It seems to indicate that the UK death rate is far higher than some other European countries including France, Netherlands, Switzerland – et cetera. I haven't bothered to go through the whole list.

Not only that, our rate of "recovered" closed cases seems to be comparatively low.

Is the UK getting it wrong? What's happening?


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Posted (edited)

The confirmed cases/death ratio is meaningless. Unless you tested everyone in every country, or each country had the same testing saturation policy,  you do not have the data to make an accurate comparison.

 

 

Edited by cjcregg

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Yes they are vacillating faster than mains AC current, Demonic Cummings seems to have denied his plan to cull non productive people to foster herd immunity, by letting the disease rip through  and now promoting lockdown.  To try to compare death rates is difficult as there is no common way of measuring in place, also differences between Mortality Rate and Absolute Mortality

"Coronavirus produces a relatively low death rate but, because of its infectivity and the disease profile, it is capable of killing far more people (absolute mortality) than a less virulent organism. " (Dr Richard North)


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2 hours ago, cjcregg said:

The confirmed cases/death ratio is meaningless. Unless you tested everyone in every country, or each country had the same testing saturation policy,  you do not have the data to make an accurate comparison.

 

 

 

This.

 

You know (roughly!) the number of deaths (the numerator data).  But how do you measure the denominator data?

Number of seriously ill on ITU?. Confirmed positive cases? Number of cases with compatible CT lung imaging (which much of the Chinese data is based on).

 

At least one of the studies which has a 2% overall death rate has been criticised, and some argue their denominator data doesn't include those who 'just get a cold", and never get noticed by the healthcare service(s). If this is (as some believe) 90% of cases, then the 2% death rate drops to 0.2%

 

Still 120,000 for a 60million population, but way better than 1.2 million.

 

We'll only get a true denominator figure after the event, by a large-scale sero-prevelance study, looking at blood samples from a large (and representative!0 portion of the population. Even current sero-prevalance work is an estimate.....

So, anonymous testing of 'booking bloods' on pregnant women shows you what is happening for pregnant women, not men as well, nor women of non-childbearing age

Anonymous testing of blood donor samples tells you what is happening with blood donors, not the population including those who don't donate blood, and so on.

 

They aren't my lines but:

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

If you torture your data long and hard enough, it'll tell you what you want to hear.

 

However, the stats are useful - they are the best info we have, but they need interpretation bearing their limitations in mind.

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4 hours ago, cjcregg said:

The confirmed cases/death ratio is meaningless. Unless you tested everyone in every country, or each country had the same testing saturation policy,  you do not have the data to make an accurate comparison.

 

 

 

I quite agree that the specific figures are meaningless – but there has been the same pattern over the past week or 10 days – and so there is a consistency which either reflects data gathering or else a problem


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1 hour ago, BankFodder said:

 

I quite agree that the specific figures are meaningless – but there has been the same pattern over the past week or 10 days – and so there is a consistency which either reflects data gathering or else a problem

 

The problem is that we don't know that the testing pattern has been consistent. For example the UK announced 5 days ago that they were going to double the amount of tests. Other countries have said they will  be restricting testing to just hospitalised patients. The US is massively increasing speculative testing. Obviously the more a country tests the more cases they'll find and visa versa which is fundamental to calculating a case/death ratio.

 

Additionally there's a general scientific acceptance that, for whatever reason, a significant but unknown proportion of populations are asymptomatic to the virus. They contract it and can transmit it but don't display any symptoms so they don't know they have or had it. Those numbers should go into the equation as contracting the virus and would dilute the death rate. Different countries may have differing rates of asymmetric cases due to possible factors such as diet, climate, fitness, age etc.

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15 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

 

For example the UK announced 5 days ago that they were going to double the amount of tests. Other countries have said they will  be restricting testing to just hospitalised patients.

 

UK already only tests hospitalised (unless the HPU makes a specific request : outbreak in a prison, long term care facility or so on).

 

15 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

may have differing rates of asymmetric cases due to possible

 

Typo for “asymptomatic cases”?

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@cjcregg I take your point


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 The experts to follow are Imperial college and the MRC London, (and the CMO). 1000 actual cases per death. Most of them mild or asymptomatic. Currently at around 300,000, doubling every 3 days. We get to 20 million cases and 20,000 deaths within 4 to 5 weeks. The number of confirmed cases is far, far less than actual cases, in fact one Italian research paper has even estimated up to 76% of cases with no symptoms at all. I'd dig around for the link somewhere if I can.


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Actuals are difficult to track, there will be people who had it  mild and recoverd and never knew.


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Yup, probably the majority, we all had a dry sore throat, and a few symptoms. Beginning of hay fever season? corona Virus, Who knows?

 

A small % age of unfortunate people will get very ill.  Because everyone catches it, that small % is enough to overwhelm any health system. That's why there are apocalypse style restrictions. When the health service is overwhelmed people also die of other things that normally would be treated., that's another problem.

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