Mutating Corona Virus

[BazzaS 3,316]

Why 2 dates? Read my post

One “last naturally occurring case”

One date WHO declared eradication

2 different dates for 2 different events!

 

Janet Parker wasn’t infected by a “mutated smallpox”. There was an accidental release of a lab stock being held for research. As a result lab stocks have been destroyed (except for 2 high security labs, and even now debate continues : destroy those or keep them?)

[tobyjugg2 916]

So which is it Bazzas?

Arbitrarily chose one as the 'eradication' date

 

* The last time someone died from a 'natural' infection and the body destroyed?

* The laboratory accidental infection cleanup?

* The WHO arbitrary date about two years past the last known infection?

* Once all frozen infected bodies in the melting North ice are defrosted and destroyed?

* The date that the last sample will be destroyed (Three labs still reportedly keep samples)?

* Whenever all even close variants are eradicated?

 

Arbitrarily chose one as an 'eradication' date

 

[London1971 974]

29 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

agreed to a certain extent, but the various 'eradication' dates are somewhat arbitrary

but that link was an easy to read blog entry referring the findings of the reasearchgate paper and other things, not the paper itself.

 

Sars type incubation period is 5-14 days with the CDC saying (as info increases)

 

" The median incubation period for secondary cases associated with limited human-to-human transmission is approximately 5 days (range 2-14 days).

In MERS-CoV patients, the median time from illness onset to hospitalization is approximately 4 days.

 

 

 

projected likely worst case scenarios should ALWAYS be considered

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/mers_middle_east_respiratory_syndrome/article.htm

 

10 days at least - 14 days for working on spread and infection

 

 

And ALL virus mutate.

 

MERS is very very difficult to catch, thank goodness, with a 35% mortality,

 

I'm guessing the next couple of weeks will be key to nail down how long the incubation period actually is for this novel virus.

 

 

[London1971 974]

In my opinion the real threats to be terrified of are antibiotic resistance over the next 15- 20 years.  That has potential to take us back to Victorian times!

 

And currently Sepsis, which probably kills more people in the UK in a week than this new virus will in a year.

 

Words from an expert , Editor of the Lancet.

 

 

richard horton

 

@richardhorton1

·

3h

 

A call for caution please. Media are escalating anxiety by talking of a “killer virus” + “growing fears”. In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.

 

 

[BazzaS 3,316]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

So which is it Bazzas?

* The date that the last sample will be destroyed (Three labs still reportedly keep samples)?

* Whenever all even close variants are eradicated?

 

Arbitrarily chose one as an 'eradication' date

 

remind me, which 3 labs?

 

(it is 2, “Vektor” in what was the Soviet Union, and CDC in the USA. Both under BSL-4 conditions)

 

which is the 3rd you know of, and should you be letting WHO know?

 

Which “close variants”? Orf and cowpox don’t need destroying ; they don’t cause variola major.

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[tobyjugg2 916]

On 24/01/2020 at 13:10, BazzaS said:

remind me, which 3 labs?

 

(it is 2, “Vektor” in what was the Soviet Union, and CDC in the USA. Both under BSL-4 conditions)

 

which is the 3rd you know of, and should you be letting WHO know?

 

Which “close variants”? Orf and cowpox don’t need destroying ; they don’t cause variola major.

 

2 Russian labs

Not hard to find.

 

 

https://time.com/5678982/russia-explosion-lab-ebola-smallpox/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6131633/

 

oops forgot to include this link as well

 

https://www.livescience.com/2403-climate-threat-thawing-tundra-releases-infected-corpses.html

[BazzaS 3,316]

That Time page says:

“The bioweapons facility, located in Koltosvo, in the Novosibirsk region of Siberia, is known for being one of two centers in the world housing samples of smallpox”

That is Vector/Vektor, which I mentioned.

 

So, which is the 3rd?

if it is so easy to find : go ahead, and show me up.

Monkeypox: no point in destroying lab stocks, as it is still out in the wild.

[tobyjugg2 916]

1 hour ago, BazzaS said:

if it is so easy to find : go ahead, and show me up.

 

Monkeypox: no point in destroying lab stocks, as it is still out in the wild.

 

You're doing all right yourself.

Show us your source for the false claim that smallpox virus/virus generally - don't mutate ... if you aren't the source :-/

I've supplied the evidence that they do.

 

While we are waiting

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/smallpox-vials-discovered-lab-storage-room-cdc-says-n150806

 

 

Oh - and despite the accidents, I don't think that the 'declared' last lab samples should be destroyed, or that they would be the last samples even without the  Siberian ice melting and mutations.

aka I don't believe even at that it would be 'eradicated'.

eg If anyone believes that China at least doesn't have undeclared samples and that America and Russia wouldn't keep undeclared samples even if they don't already have them, they are fooling no one but themselves

 

... But my reasons for keeping the samples are far more that it could easily return.

Edited January 24 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2 916]

Oh and here's the official advice

 

" Individuals should seek medical attention if they develop respiratory symptoms within 14 days of visiting Wuhan, either in China or on their return to the UK.

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/

[hightail 1,050]

On 23/01/2020 at 18:04, honeybee13 said:

That's very sad, hightail. Was your BiL ever vaccinated against TB? I think TJ said it's another disease that we thought we'd conquered and is coming back.

He was but as I understand it protection from the vaccine only lasts for a limited time and the reason we vaccinate young teenagers is because it covers for the time people are 'most' vulnerable.

 

What came as a total surprise to us was that we assumed this was a disease which attacked the lungs/respiratory system and it isn't necessarily specific to that part of the body at all.  What's going to result in a continued rise in the UK is a combination of ignorance and lack of GP appointments.  Lack of an NHS in South Africa definitely contributed to BIL neglegting to seek timely treatment whereas my experience locally is that it's unlikely to be available here anyway.

[BazzaS 3,316]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

You're doing all right yourself.

Show us your source for the false claim that smallpox virus/virus generally - don't mutate ... if you aren't the source

 

 

I’ve clarified above: the smallpox vaccine target didn’t mutate. That is what was key to the eradication (along with what I said before : no carrier state, massive international effort)

 

My proof : that there was one single vaccine, and it worked.

 

I’ve never said “viruses don’t mutate”.

I’ve highlighted flu A’s “shift” and “drift”

I can talk about which circulating strains are at higher risk of Oseltamivir resistance if you like.

 

If you are concerned I don’t know what I’m talking about : search my previous ‘flu posts, and where I highlighted the likely change in UK vaccination recommendations...... which were confirmed 3 months later........

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[BazzaS 3,316]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Oh and here's the official advice

 

" Individuals should seek medical attention if they develop respiratory symptoms within 14 days of visiting Wuhan, either in China or on their return to the UK.

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/

See above. That is the “case definition for testing”. It means that the incubation period is less than 14 days, but for abundance of caution they use 14 days, to rule out who shouldn’t be tested (for “don’t even bother testing if more than 14 days”)

 

The problem seems to be that you don’t understand the difference between the screening algorithm and the actual incubation period.

my sources: previous sources replaced by a new update today.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

 

The bit where they say “This estimate is based on the following assumptions“

(So, it is all still assumption. Expert’s “best guess”, but even the experts aren’t sure yet, as I’ve previously highlighted!)

 

“There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case”

 

incubation period 5-6 days, not 14. (Incubation period is time from exposure to symptoms)

 

even if you take “time from exposure/ infection, to detection/hospitalisation” (in case you now claim that is what you meant by “incubation period”)

still 10 days mean, with a range of 9-11 days (and they haven’t given us the distribution which will presumably be a normal distribution, nor given us the standard deviation).

 

Not 14 days.

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[tobyjugg2 916]

What you seem to be missing is that the smallpox virus was cleared as a result of a worldwide program of vaccination which didn't give its slower rate of mutation chance to mutate and gain a fresh foothold. They of course used the variola vaccination program which replaced the

Claiming that it DOESN'T mutate is incorrect, foolish and dangerous.

 

and as I said - the 14 days is the outside of the possible period. ie 14 days too late.

 

 

"in late 1975, Rahima Banu, a three-year-old girl from Bangladesh, was the last person in the world to have naturally acquired variola major and the last person in Asia to have active smallpox. She was isolated at home with house guards posted 24 hours a day until she was no longer infectious. A house-to-house vaccination campaign within a 1.5 mile radius of her home began immediately, and every house, public meeting area, school, and healer within 5 miles was visited by a member of the Smallpox Eradication Program team to ensure the illness did not spread. A reward was also offered to anyone for reporting a smallpox case.

 

Ali Maow Maalin was the last person to have naturally acquired smallpox caused by variola minor. Maalin was a hospital cook in Merca, Somalia. On October 12, 1977, he accompanied two smallpox patients in a vehicle from the hospital to the local smallpox office. On October 22, he developed a fever. At first he was diagnosed with malaria, and then chickenpox. He was correctly diagnosed with smallpox by the smallpox eradication staff on October 30. Maalin was isolated and made a full recovery. Maalin died of malaria on July 22, 2013 while working in the polio eradication campaign.

 

Janet Parker was the last person to die of smallpox. It was 1978, and Parker was a medical photographer at the Birmingham University Medical School in England and worked one floor above the Medical Microbiology Department where smallpox research was being conducted. She became ill on August 11 and developed a rash on August 15 but was not diagnosed with smallpox until 9 days later. She died on September 11, 1978. Her mother, who was providing care for her, developed smallpox on September 7, despite having been vaccinated on August 24. An investigation performed afterward suggested that Janet Parker had been infected either via an airborne route through the medical school building’s duct system or by direct contact while visiting the microbiology corridor one floor above.

 

 

 

Different types of vaccine

Smallpox vaccines produced and successfully used during the intensified eradication program are called first generation vaccines in contrast to smallpox vaccines developed at the end of the eradication phase or thereafter and produced by modern cell culture techniques.

 

Second generation smallpox vaccines use the same smallpox vaccine strains employed for manufacture of first generation vaccines or clonal virus variants plaque purified from traditional vaccine stocks,

 

whereas third generation smallpox vaccines represent more attenuated vaccine strains specifically developed as safer vaccines at the end of the eradication phase by further passage in cell culture or animals. Second and third generation vaccines are produced using modern cell culture techniques and current standards of Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP).

 

https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/vaccines/en/

[tobyjugg2 916]

anyway

Cutting through

 

please confirm your stance is:

 

1.

Smallpox is just one thing, we have a 'cure' and its gone forever (apart from 2 declared labs (and maybe one alleged other lab at most))

Even if it isn't gone forever, we have the cure for the one virus which doesn't change/mutate

 

2.

People haven't got Coronavirus if they are clear of symptoms for 6 days?

 

 

Edited January 24 by tobyjugg2

[BazzaS 3,316]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

What you seem to be missing is that the smallpox virus was cleared as a result of a worldwide program of vaccination which didn't give its slower rate of mutation chance to mutate and gain a fresh foothold. They of course used the variola vaccination program which replaced the

Claiming that it DOESN'T mutate is incorrect, foolish and dangerous.

 

 

 

 

 

“They of course used the variola vaccination program which replaced the

Claiming that....”

 

looks like you are missing some text there after “replaced the” !

 

As for “slower rate of mutation a chance to mutate” : smallpox is believed to have been around since 3rd Century BC, and maybe even 7 centuries before that. Apologies : I don’t have formal evidence for 10th Century BC (why I’m saying “maybe”). Good quality peer reviewed studies for 22 centuries (plus) ago are rare

 

There is no reason to believe that dairymaids (back then) who had had cowpox didn’t develop the immunity Jenner later characterised : so there would have been some selective pressure for smallpox to mutate its vaccine target even then.

Variolation was used in the Far East (1549) even before it started to be used in the West in the 1720’s : that is some 428 years of further increased selective pressure to mutate the vaccine target, (250 years if you want to say “both East & West”)

 

Jenner started using vaccinia around 1796, but only published his paper on cowpox / vaccinia (from which the term vaccination is derived) in 1798. At least 179 years of even greater selective pressure yet still no mutation of the vaccine target.....

 

“Ahh, but those aren’t modern vaccines!” I hear you cry.... Well there was gradual improvement in the vaccines but there was a major step (freeze dried, heat-stable vaccine) in the 1950’s (25 years of yet further increased selective pressure)

 

So, with 22 centuries in which to mutate the vaccine target, 300 million deaths in the 20th century, and 15 million cases a year as late as 1967. Not a shred of evidence that there was a single mutation of the vaccine target...... that isn’t “slow”.

that is zero.

 

 

 

[BazzaS 3,316]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

and as I said - the 14 days is the outside of the possible period. ie 14 days too late.

 

 

.Maalin was a hospital cook in Merca, Somalia. On October 12, 1977, he accompanied two smallpox patients in a vehicle from the hospital to the local smallpox office. On October 22, he developed a fever.

 

https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/vaccines/en/

“and as I said - the 14 days is the outside of the possible period. ie 14 days too late.”

 

 

I fear you have confused yourself again. You were claiming a 14 day incubation period for 2019-nCoV, and now you bring up 14 days in a nonsensical statement (14 days too late for what?) while talking about smallpox .....

 

incubation period for smallpox is 7-17 days, BTW, so that spans 14 days, but isn’t “14 days”

 

October 10th (exposure)  to October 22nd (first symptoms). Even the case you cite was 12 days incubation, not 14 !

 

Great work cut n pasting the WHO info page: not only does it show the 10 day incubation period of the last naturally occurring case of smallpox, but nothing in there is in contradiction to my posts .... confirming I’m correct.

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[BazzaS 3,316]

As for:

1.

“Smallpox is just one thing,“ I don’t know what you mean by “just one thing” (especially when you are trying to put words in my mouth / create a “straw man”) - so it’s hard to answer.

If you mean “one vaccine target not mutating over many centuries“ - yes.
 

“we have a 'cure'” : I never said we have a cure, yet another attempt to put words in my mouth.

As for “treatment” rather than “cure” : Work on Cidofovir and its analogue brinCidofovir started, though they never got FDA approval.

Tecovirimat: FDA approved.

 

“and its gone forever (apart from 2 declared labs (and maybe one alleged other lab at most))“

 

Never said that either. Official stocks are held in 2 labs (hey! You haven’t named the 3rd lab you said held stocks, and now your position has changed to “(and maybe one alleged other lab at most))“ - strange that!

 

A single case of smallpox anywhere in the world would be a global health  There might be stocks not found / not destroyed (though I’d hope not!)

There might be “rogue actors”

There might be “rogue nations”

exhumed victims are a concern.

None if that is in contradiction to what I’ve posted .....

 

”Even if it isn't gone forever, we have the cure for the one virus which doesn't change/mutate”

more trying to get me to say that which I haven’t said. We have treatments, we have vaccine.

There are experts to rapidly identify any case, and (no doubt!) plans to isolate cases and contacts and ring-fence vaccinate. Some people can’t be vaccinated. There isn’t (currently!) enough vaccine to vaccinate the whole world. There are treatments.

That is what I’m happy to say, but never have I claimed “there is a cure”

 

If smallpox re-emerges, if it isn’t contained rapidly I’d expect a massive death toll, followed by a renewed eradication program, then a period of post-eradication surveillance.....

[BazzaS 3,316]

3 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

anyway

Cutting through

 

please confirm your stance is:

 

2.

People haven't got Coronavirus if they are clear of symptoms for 6 days?

 

 

Again, you seem resistant to explanation, and unclear in what you are asking.

 

”Coronavirus” you ask. Any Coronavirus? Just 2019-nCoV ??

 

”haven’t got ..... if they are clear of symptoms for 6 days”?

 

You might mean “if they have had 2019n-CoV and have been clear of symptoms : are they still infectious” : your question isn’t clear.

 

If your question actually is “if they were exposed to 2019n-CoV and have been clear of any symptoms by (say, 12 days)

AND they haven’t had a subsequent exposure AND they give an accurate exposure history : will they NOT develop 2019n-CoV” my position is definately. This is “incubation period”, not “case finding definition period”..... see below

 

Do they then use 14 days for case finding / testing: (Case finding relies on symptoms sufficient to require testing and detection) Definately.

10 days for time to symptoms bad enough to come to attention for testing, and detectable levels. Further 4 days for “wiggle room / patients don’t report accurately”

House was a fictional character who said “everybody lies”. Some patients lie (“have you had a temperature ? They won’t let me board that plane if I say yes, so I’ll say no”)

Others don’t deliberately lie, but may not give an accurate travel history (“Which state in China was I in?” “Which day did I leave”

 
Still : 10 days incubation period. Might it be 11 days? Possibly.

12 days. I’m happy until further info comes out.

14 days? Nothing currently to suggest that is even close.

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[BazzaS 3,316]

22 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

 

 

A single case of smallpox anywhere in the world would be a global health  There might be stocks not found / not destroyed (though I’d hope not!)

 

“Would be a global health  There”

should read “would be a global health emergency. There”

[BazzaS 3,316]

I’ve tried (patiently and repeatedly) answering your questions.

 

Your turn:

A) where is the 3rd lab holding smallpox stocks? (the one you said was easily findable)

B) what is the incubation period of 2019-nCoV (and I mean the generally accepted definition of incubation period, time from exposure to development of first sign / symptom) any current peer reviewed analysis will suffice

C) When would smallpox have mutated its vaccine target if it hadn’t have been eradicated (any high quality statistical analysis will do!)

Edited January 24 by BazzaS

[BazzaS 3,316]

20 hours ago, BazzaS said:

Further 4 days for “wiggle room / patients don’t report accurately”

House was a fictional character who said “everybody lies”. Some patients lie (“have you had a temperature ? They won’t let me board that plane if I say yes, so I’ll say no”)

Others don’t deliberately lie, but may not give an accurate travel history (“Which state in China was I in?” “Which day did I leave”

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/24/ire-chinese-woman-cheated-coronavirus-checks-fly-france-michelin/

wow! It is almost like I predicted such......

 

[honeybee13 4,019]

I'm not sure which point you're wanting to make, Bazza, probably more learned than mine, but I think that lady was very selfish to risk potentially passing on a deadly virus to other people.

[BazzaS 3,316]

My point, HB, is that I predicted that “people lie, so the case finding definition factors this (and other human factors) in”.

 

”Case finding definition” (14 days) should always be longer than both “currently known incubation period” (5-6 days), and “current predicted time to detection” (10 days), so:

 

saying that the “case finding 14 days” means that the incubation period must be 14 days is wrong.

 

To do so, and to keep doing so even after explanation of the difference shows a lack of understanding. 

That flyer, she was indeed very selfish, but that is human behaviour for you. You can’t stop such (people lying during screening) any more than you can stop people deliberately trying to game the system (taking anti-pyretics before flight boarding screening, and prior to destination screening) or innocently and inadvertently  answering screening questions incorrectly (The “what state was I in?” What day did I leave?” that I mentioned above)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25 by BazzaS

[honeybee13 4,019]

Thank you. We were sort of saying the same thing then, that people and human nature make controlling disease more difficult?

[BazzaS 3,316]

“There is the science, and then the art”.

 

The science gives you verifiable facts and figures. The art is applying the science in the real world, taking human factors into account.

 

If I had been in Wuhan, I’d hope I’d apply the principles of Bentham utilitarianism, taking all measures I could to protect myself but without risking others (so, no lying to evade movement controls). Yet, until actually placed in that situation: would I?

I don’t know what I’d actually do until I’m in the situation.

 

What then if (early on in the Wuhan outbreak, before the travel embargo) I am already booked on a pre-planned flight out?

Do I cancel it? Not if I don't have a temperature....

 

What if I have a temperature? I should ‘not travel’, but what would you (or I) actually do?

Public opinion (looking at the case of the ‘Michelin traveller’) says to travel would be selfish.

 

What if I had a temperature, but my flight (booked before the outbreak) was to visit a terminally ill relative, who had only a very short time remaining?. Things are rarely cut and dried.

 

What would you (anyone, not just me and HB) do? Do you believe that what you think you’d do (when considering the issues) is going to always be the same as what you do when actually in that situation?

 

Human factors.

Eyam plague: The village of the damned http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071

 

Would people do the same, today?

Edited January 25 by BazzaS