Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

My sympathies and condolances

but you even admit that in that case it probably accelerated his passing, if only by a small amount.

 

Perhaps consider balancing that with all the deaths, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic, where no Covid test was done at all? and the death certificate just said heart attack or pneumonia or complications due to advanced age ... the list goes on

Edited January 27 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I'm very sorry about your father, HT.

 

TJ, another way to assess this is the excess mortality figure published by the government. It used to be Chris Giles of the FT and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries who also published them, but I haven't looked lately.

[tobyjugg2]

Yes HB did that in some depth and commented on the oft ignored factors of what had been a reducing death rate and the flu mini-epidemic

If this pandemic ever ends, i expect to see quite a significant drop in even the pre pandemic average death rate,

... unless Tory hardship ends up with more people dying on top of the indications that so many of the current middle and younger generations seem to have such very unhealthy lifestyles

- or damage from the sewage outpourings or microplastics

Jeez I sound like those 30 years ago I thought of as end of the world conspiracy nuts, and they will all be shouting 'told you so'

 

So which will get us first?

Microplastics and pollution or the wars that climate change and sea level rise will bring?

(Theres a reason Besos wants to get a self-supporting base on Mars - he actually believes it will be a safer bet than Earth in his lifetime - and I agree thats a bet worth making if you have the resources)

 

 

What bothers me most, at the moment putting some of the above aside briefly,  and I've already commented on it, is the simple fact that

* its hard to get a clear picture from official figures, 

* and that official figures don't reconcile with other official figures

.. usually a sign of incompetent/corrupt figure fiddling/counting

No surprises there I suppose with who we have

 

(and NO I dont think it would have been better with Corbyn - just a maybe somewhat different bad)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Some good news confirmed. Get your booster folks.

 

"Protection against death with Omicron stands at around 60% for those aged 50 and over about six months after a second dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show.

That increases to around 95% two weeks after receiving a third booster dose.

 

The booster offers high levels of protection against hospitalisation, the figures also show, with the effectiveness of the Pfizer jab against admission standing at around 90%, dropping to about 75% after 10-14 weeks.

 

 

 

Booster vaccine significantly reduces risk of death with Omicron, figures show

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Protection against death increases to 95% two weeks after receiving the booster jab.

 

[BazzaS]

13 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Bazza, I know this isn't directly connected to the above posts but has anyone calculated if the limit of within 28-days of a covid diagnosis has made a significant difference to the mortality figures?

 

HB, the 28 days is a recognized period used for certification. The figure for "how many extra deaths are attributable to Covid" will be the "excess mortality" figure, and isn't based on any 28 day period. It will include deaths directly AND indirectly* due to whatever has changed that year (so, primarily covid).

 

* Directly and indirectly: directly as in "died of Covid". Indirectly will include such as cancer treatment got delayed because of Covid, and "died because there was no ITU bed", why no ITU bed? taken up by an unvaccinated person with Covid" and so on. 

[honeybee13]

Thank you, Bazza. Do you happen to kow what the current excess mortality figure since the beginning of covid in the UK please? I couldn't find it earlier.

[tobyjugg2]

Need to include these too HB (in understanding the figures)

 

COVID-19: At least 4,000 non-COVID excess deaths caused by pandemic in England, report finds, with 32,000 missing cancer treatment

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Pressures including staff absences due to infection and the treatment of COVID positive patients lead to a rise in deaths and a delay in people...

 

 

 

Good primer and selectable graphs

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

 

 

• Excess deaths in England and Wales 2021 | Statista

WWW.STATISTA.COM

---

There were 523 weekly excess deaths recorded in England and Wales for the week ending December 31, 2021.

 

Edited January 27 by tobyjugg2

[BazzaS]

7 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Thank you, Bazza. Do you happen to kow what the current excess mortality figure since the beginning of covid in the UK please? I couldn't find it earlier.

(Statistician’s pedant head on)…

depends when you believe Covid began in the U.K….. Feb 20? (It was likely here before, unnoticed ….)

 

 

The data is released yearly:

(latest) 

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

---

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains...

 

 

(Monthly, latest)

Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

---

Provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due...

and weekly

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

---

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus...

for precise figures you’d have to subtract from the “start year” the months / weeks you didn’t want included from the start of that year, then add any subsequent years / months / weeks to get to the end date you want to use.

 

the closest (approximate) summary I could find is 2020 to mid-21

Excess mortality and mortality displacement in England and Wales: 2020 to mid-2021 - Office for National Statistics

WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

---

Deaths registered in England and Wales by week, from 28 December 2019 to 2 July 2021. Breakdowns include...

 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Thank you again, Bazza. That was the problem I was having yesterday,  no figures beyond July last year. I thought there might be some more recent ones that I'd missed.

 

Here's more on the ONS statement, from Full Fact.

 

Dan Wootton and David Davis make incorrect claims about Covid-19 deaths - Full Fact

FULLFACT.ORG

---

Data from the ONS shows that to the end of September 2021, 17,371 people died in England and Wales of Covid and had no pre-existing conditions.

 

[tobyjugg2]

and buried in this is .. ensure you are using proper hand gel folks, not the crap touted by Johnsons pals noted earlier in the thread

 

Omicron survives up to 8 days on plastic surfaces, new study finds

WWW.EURONEWS.COM

---

The Japanese researchers found Omicron can last up to eight days on plastic surfaces and 21 hours on skin.

 

 

 

 

and this is well worth a read

Omicrons lower 'severe illness' rate seems confirmed due to lower 'stickyness' and not just prior infections/vaccination

 

"Missing from omicron is a mutation called P681R, which is present in the delta variant and is believed to increase the likelihood of the coronavirus fusing to cells. "The omicron variant has a 'picky' tendency regarding what cells it binds to, which may be limiting its spread," said Akatsuki Saito, an associate professor of virology at the University of Miyazaki"

 

 

 

What Japan's latest research tells us about omicron variant risks

MAINICHI.JP

---

TOKYO -- It appears highly unlikely that the coronavirus's omicron variant spreading across the country will make people as sick as the delta variant

 

Edited January 28 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

 

 

Do understand the protection levels are still very worthwhile - 95% down to 75% in 15 weeks aint bad

Edited January 28 by tobyjugg2

[Murpheus]

Sorry for the loss of your father hightail. Been a while since I was on here, lots of figures flying about. So we all agree 17,000 have lost their lives to the rona that had no underlying health conditions. That is one huge leap from the whole of 2020 when the virus was rampant. 388 died that year, wonder what was introduced in 21 for the graphs to go off the scale?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13584329/377-covid-deaths-under-60-underlying-health-conditions/      

[honeybee13]

Djokovic is back in the news - the BBC has cast doubts on the date of his covid test prior to arriving in Australia. They've done some clever research with serial numbers and QR codes but the Serbian public health authority isn't giving information.

 

And Nadal is a step closer to his 21st Grand Slam title, which would make him the first male player to reach that. He won't be able to compete in the French Open under France's current rules which require all sportspeople to be vaxxed.

 

Novak Djokovic: Doubts over timing of Covid test

WWW.BBC.COM

---

The BBC has uncovered fresh evidence questioning the timing of Novak Djokovic’s positive Covid test used to enter Australia.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Very strange world we have at the moment.  UK is trying to move to a position where Covid is treated similar to common Cold. 

 

Other countries are still wanting to take protective measures and it is not just about vaccination rates. The WHO and other health authorities are still recommending caution, as there may be variants which are more problematic, leading to higher pressure on health services, death rates, disruption to essential services etc.

 

I am hearing of people being really unwell due to new Covid infection, even though they have had 3 vaccinations and also had Covid previously.

 

Far too early in my opinion to treat Covid like a common Cold. 

[tobyjugg2]

Misuse of the word ‘endemic’ in relation to COVID-19 is encouraging a misplaced complacency, says evolutionary virologist Aris Katzourakis. A disease can be endemic as well as both widespread and deadly. Malaria, for example, is an endemic disease that killed more than 600,000 people in 2020.

(Nature | 4 min read)

[honeybee13]

Peston has spotted that the Department of Health has buried in a document that it's made nearly £9bn loss on £12bn spent on PPE. Such a waste of money.

 

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1488494435679838209?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1488494435679838209|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2022%2Ffeb%2F01%2Fboris-johnson-news-sue-gray-report-partygate-covid-coronavirus-keir-starmer-live-updates

 

[honeybee13]

More on that story in the Commons yesterday. The tax and NI increases are at least in part due to colossal mismanagement of public money.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

This is exactly what the opposition parties should be challenging the Government on at the moment.

 

Tories have for some reason always been seen as stronger on financial management, but there is quite a lot of information that could be very damaging.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Schools in England reinstate mask wearing rules as Covid cases soar | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Authorities reintroduce requirement a week after government relaxed restrictions in England

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

These findings indicate that male SARS-CoV-2 infection may be associated with a short-term decline in fertility and that COVID-19 vaccination does not impair fertility in either partner.

 

 

 

A prospective cohort study of COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and fertility

WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

---

Some reproductive-aged individuals remain unvaccinated against COVID-19 due to concerns about potential adverse effects on fertility. We...

 

[tobyjugg2]

Makes sense when you think that nations have been testing sewage for info on covid spread:

 

A massive reservoir of the virus and mutations in the sewers - which are overflowing into British waterways due to negligence, profiteering and criminality by water companies

 

 

 

Tracking cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineages detected in NYC wastewater

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

To monitor the presence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants in New York City, Smyth et al. perform deep-sequencing of the receptor binding domain of...

 

[tobyjugg2]

A lighter summary of the above

 

In New York City Sewage, a Mysterious Coronavirus Signal - The New York Times

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

---

For the past year, scientists have been looking for the source of strange coronavirus sequences that have appeared in the city’s wastewater.

 

[honeybee13]

Labour haved forced the DHSC to release emails which include ones between Owen Patterson amd Matt Hancock about Randox. Embarrassing stuff.

 

Private texts suggest Owen Paterson personally lobbied Matt Hancock for Covid firm - Mirror Online

WWW.MIRROR.CO.UK

---

The private messages, which emerged after a standards probe into Owen Paterson's lobbying for Randox, also show the MP asked Mr Hancock to...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Civil Service have strict rules regarding social media being used to discuss anything about the work of Government policies and politics.  So any advisors working in Government who are Civil Servants should not be using any unofficial communication channels relating to Government business.

 

Government ministers would most likely be in breach of Ministerial code, if they conducted Government policy discussions using social media apps such as WhatsApp.

 

 

[honeybee13]

I'm sure the civil servants did their best, UB and of course meetings, calls and so on should be documented, it's normal or should be.

 

As for ministers, breaching the code doesn't seem to be a huge problem at the moment as the PM is arbiter of that. I don't agree with that either fwiw.

 

I think it was Jolyon Maugham who commented that it always seems to be the controversial cases where the records go missing, like Lord Bethel's phone, for instance.