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Panic in Wuhan as China bars 11m residents from leaving

Supermarket shelves are bare and the sense of panic is palpable in Wuhan after the Chinese city of 11 million people was put on lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Public transport out of the city has been suspended in response to the outbreak, which has now killed 17 people and infected almost 600 in China and spread to three other Asian countries and the US. However, the World Health Organization has so far refrained from declaring it a public health emergency of international concern.

  • US case. Doctors have been using a robot to treat the first person diagnosed with the disease in the US, a man in his 30s who recently returned from China and who is said to be in “satisfactory condition” at a hospital in Everett, Washington.

  • ‘Warm meat’. A market where animals are freshly slaughtered rather than chilled has been identified as the source of the virus. Experts say the Chinese appetite for so-called “warm meat” has long hampered efforts to prevent such disease outbreaks.

 

Guardian US morning briefing

also see:

https://www.ladbible.com/news/news-coronavirus-mutating-and-adapting-after-leaving-nine-dead-in-china-20200122

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-23/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-Cases-climbing-but-China-s-responding-fast-NtPRQmwODC/index.html

 

 

 

 

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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I'm not sure as yet just how much this is political rather than medical

 

That the virus' mutate is a fact of them

That they are mutating quicker seems to be a significant fact

 

That anti-biotics don't hit viruses is not the issue, as they are used to treat some effects of severe virus outbreaks

 

But I question whether locking down the 'region is somewhat like shutting the stable door after a billion horses have bolted, although there is no genuinely 'right answer.

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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I think of far greater importance is the poor people who have been convinced by those who say the MMR vaccine causes autism and so those people, thinking they are protecting their children rather thygan putting them at risk, dont get those children vaccinated.

 

 

The reality of course is that ANY risk from the vaccine is astonishingly small, and the benefits are astoundingly large.

 

its a sad fact that in the UK we are close to the level of 'none take up' where we will lose our 'herd' immunity despite many kids inheriting a level of immunity from their inoculated parents, that is by no means certain. Just like with the Victorian horror of TB which still lurks waiting.

http://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/herd-immunity

 

So, unlike politicians lies, when we do get an outbreak those kids who weren't inoculated and contributed to that loss of herd immunity will suffer the utterly horrendous consequences first and hardest.

 

 

 

In fact, I'm so convinced that if it were suggested by a reputable source that there was evidence that a fresh booster on top of the ordinary ones just could aid in improving immunity

... I'd be queuing up and suggesting all my loved ones  do the same.

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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The UK has actually lost its WHO 'elimination' status

 

Why have we lost elimination status?

WHO defines measles elimination as the absence of circulating measles, in the presence of high vaccine coverage, along with good systems to identify cases of the disease. In countries that have eliminated measles, measles can still occur, but these will be isolated cases that only have limited spread within the community.

The UK initially achieved WHO measles elimination status in 2017, based on data from 2014-2016.

However, in 2018, there was a marked increase in the number of confirmed measles cases, with 991 confirmed cases in England and Wales, compared with 284 cases in 2017.  Furthermore, the same strain of measles virus (called B3 Dublin) was detected for more than 12 months across 2017 and 2018. Based on this, WHO determined that the UK could no longer be consider as ‘eliminated’ and that transmission of measles had been re-established.

The UK has actually lost its 'elimination' status on measels

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2019/08/19/measles-in-england/

 

 

 

 

 

and anyone who isn't concerned, should be

Latest update

In England, 301 new measles infections were confirmed in the period between April and June 2019 compared to 231 in the first quarter of 2019. Cases were reported in all regions except the North East. Most cases (266) were in unvaccinated individuals aged 15 years and over.

Continuing the increase seen between January and March, 2,028 cases of mumps were also confirmed in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 795 last quarter. The increase in mumps has been mostly driven by outbreaks in university students. Cases were reported across England, predominantly in young adults aged 15 to 34 years.

 

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at Public Health England (PHE) said:

Although it is normal to see mumps outbreaks in universities every few years, we are seeing a significant number of cases, the highest quarterly figure since 2009.

Coupled with the continued measles outbreaks these figures clearly demonstrate the need for sustained high vaccination rates.

We’re urging parents and their children, no matter how old they are, to check they’ve had 2 doses of MMR. Measles is easy to catch and can kill. Vaccines are there to stop the spread of disease and save lives.

It’s never too late to protect yourself and others.

Nearly half of the mumps cases this quarter were unvaccinated. While the mumps component of the Measles, Mumps and Rubella (MMR) vaccine is highly effective at protecting young children, immunity can reduce over time. Therefore, older teenagers and adults who received two doses of MMR in childhood can still get mumps although this is generally mild compared to those who are unvaccinated.

One new case of rubella re-infection in a pregnant woman was also reported.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mmr-vaccination-call-following-high-numbers-of-measles-cases

 

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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29 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

Accurate ethos, but inaccurate factually.

 

not “All viruses mutate”, and not “viruses succeed if they don’t kill their host”.

 

Smallpox didn’t mutate. Smallpox killed many of those it infected. It was incredibly ‘successful’, but was eradicated (made possible by it having a fixed target for vaccine, no carrier state, and a massive international co-operation)

 

 

 

 

Incorrect

 

ALL virus' mutate including smallpox, just the rate and ease with which they mutate varies. Coronavirus (to which I was specifically referring) seems to mutate VERY quickly.

and your other point depends entirely on what is meant by 'successful'  ... with Londons definition being far broader and fitting IMO.

 

- unless perhaps it was an artificial virus intended to simply kill - in which case its more arguable that the person who created it was successful rather than the virus (sic)

 

 

https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/releases/2012/08/researchers-uncover-how-poxviruses-such-as-smallpox-evolve-rapid.html

" Aug. 16, 2012 – Poxviruses, a group of DNA-containing viruses that includes smallpox, are responsible for a wide range of diseases in humans and animals. They are highly virulent and able to cross species barriers, yet how they do so has been largely a mystery because of their low mutation rates. "

 

Interesting that a mutated version of smallpox is one of the treatments for Aids

 

Small-pox - To differentiate it from the great pox (syphilis)

 

 

 

 

addendum

Also consider the different causes of mutation:

https://www.britannica.com/science/radiation/Damage-to-genes-mutations

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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clarification

The mutated form of smallpox is perhaps more accurately described as a delivery mechanism for a treatment for aids

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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great that this sort of info is becoming available away from paywalled researchgate papers.

Helps to know what to look for though.

 

 

https://scienceblog.com/2070/smallpox-mutation-helps-body-resist-hiv/

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Apparently 14 day incubation period, so they are at least 14 days too late

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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17 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

b) Science blog : “Smallpox eradicated 1978”

Factually incorrect. Last naturally occurring case 1977. (Subsequent “lab release case” where a University photographer, Janet Parker, died). WHO declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. If they can’t get their dates right, can you trust the peer review of their paper (was it peer reviewed?)

 

 

 

agreed to a certain extent, but the various 'eradication' dates are somewhat arbitrary

but that link was an easy to read blog entry referring the findings of the reasearchgate paper and other things, not the paper itself.

 

Sars type incubation period is 5-14 days with the CDC saying (as info increases)

 

" The median incubation period for secondary cases associated with limited human-to-human transmission is approximately 5 days (range 2-14 days).

In MERS-CoV patients, the median time from illness onset to hospitalization is approximately 4 days.

 

 

 

projected likely worst case scenarios should ALWAYS be considered

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/mers_middle_east_respiratory_syndrome/article.htm

 

10 days at least - 14 days for working on spread and infection

 

 

And ALL virus mutate.

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Bazzas, you quote 2 dates in your post

 

 

21 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

 

Factually incorrect. Last naturally occurring case 1977. (Subsequent “lab release case” where a University photographer, Janet Parker, died). WHO declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. If they can’t get their dates right, can you trust the peer review of their paper (was it peer reviewed?)

 

 

 

and ALL virus mutate.

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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so how did that last death happen Bazzas

 

"The virus wasn’t quite dead, however — just confined to medical research labs, awaiting one last shot at humankind.

Six years after TIME heralded its death, a microbiologist at a British medical school inadvertently let the disease loose and infected a staff photographer, Janet Parker, who worked in an office above his lab. Her friends, family and casual acquaintances were quarantined, and since one coworker had visited North Dakota after Parker became infectious, the smallpox scare crossed the Atlantic. American health officials, per TIME, kept the visiting Brit under surveillance.

Parker became the last known victim of smallpox when she died on this day, Sept. 11, in 1978. The outbreak itself claimed no other casualties. Parker’s mother contracted the disease but recovered, although Parker’s father died of a heart attack when he visited his ailing daughter while quarantined in the same hospital."

 

and as we know, close variants are still are around and can MUTATE.

We need to remain vigilant.

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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So which is it Bazzas?

Arbitrarily chose one as the 'eradication' date

 

* The last time someone died from a 'natural' infection and the body destroyed?

* The laboratory accidental infection cleanup?

* The WHO arbitrary date about two years past the last known infection?

* Once all frozen infected bodies in the melting North ice are defrosted and destroyed?

* The date that the last sample will be destroyed (Three labs still reportedly keep samples)?

* Whenever all even close variants are eradicated?

 

Arbitrarily chose one as an 'eradication' date

 

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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On 24/01/2020 at 13:10, BazzaS said:


remind me, which 3 labs?

 

(it is 2, “Vektor” in what was the Soviet Union, and CDC in the USA. Both under BSL-4 conditions)

 

which is the 3rd you know of, and should you be letting WHO know?

 

Which “close variants”? Orf and cowpox don’t need destroying ; they don’t cause variola major.

 

2 Russian labs

Not hard to find.

 

 

https://time.com/5678982/russia-explosion-lab-ebola-smallpox/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6131633/

 

oops forgot to include this link as well

 

https://www.livescience.com/2403-climate-threat-thawing-tundra-releases-infected-corpses.html

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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1 hour ago, BazzaS said:

if it is so easy to find : go ahead, and show me up.

 

Monkeypox: no point in destroying lab stocks, as it is still out in the wild.

 

You're doing all right yourself.

Show us your source for the false claim that smallpox virus/virus generally - don't mutate ... if you aren't the source :-/

I've supplied the evidence that they do.

 

While we are waiting

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/smallpox-vials-discovered-lab-storage-room-cdc-says-n150806

 

 

Oh - and despite the accidents, I don't think that the 'declared' last lab samples should be destroyed, or that they would be the last samples even without the  Siberian ice melting and mutations.

aka I don't believe even at that it would be 'eradicated'.

eg If anyone believes that China at least doesn't have undeclared samples and that America and Russia wouldn't keep undeclared samples even if they don't already have them, they are fooling no one but themselves

 

... But my reasons for keeping the samples are far more that it could easily return.

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Oh and here's the official advice

 

" Individuals should seek medical attention if they develop respiratory symptoms within 14 days of visiting Wuhan, either in China or on their return to the UK.

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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What you seem to be missing is that the smallpox virus was cleared as a result of a worldwide program of vaccination which didn't give its slower rate of mutation chance to mutate and gain a fresh foothold. They of course used the variola vaccination program which replaced the

Claiming that it DOESN'T mutate is incorrect, foolish and dangerous.

 

and as I said - the 14 days is the outside of the possible period. ie 14 days too late.

 

 

"in late 1975, Rahima Banu, a three-year-old girl from Bangladesh, was the last person in the world to have naturally acquired variola major and the last person in Asia to have active smallpox. She was isolated at home with house guards posted 24 hours a day until she was no longer infectious. A house-to-house vaccination campaign within a 1.5 mile radius of her home began immediately, and every house, public meeting area, school, and healer within 5 miles was visited by a member of the Smallpox Eradication Program team to ensure the illness did not spread. A reward was also offered to anyone for reporting a smallpox case.

 

Ali Maow Maalin was the last person to have naturally acquired smallpox caused by variola minor. Maalin was a hospital cook in Merca, Somalia. On October 12, 1977, he accompanied two smallpox patients in a vehicle from the hospital to the local smallpox office. On October 22, he developed a fever. At first he was diagnosed with malaria, and then chickenpox. He was correctly diagnosed with smallpox by the smallpox eradication staff on October 30. Maalin was isolated and made a full recovery. Maalin died of malaria on July 22, 2013 while working in the polio eradication campaign.

 

Janet Parker was the last person to die of smallpox. It was 1978, and Parker was a medical photographer at the Birmingham University Medical School in England and worked one floor above the Medical Microbiology Department where smallpox research was being conducted. She became ill on August 11 and developed a rash on August 15 but was not diagnosed with smallpox until 9 days later. She died on September 11, 1978. Her mother, who was providing care for her, developed smallpox on September 7, despite having been vaccinated on August 24. An investigation performed afterward suggested that Janet Parker had been infected either via an airborne route through the medical school building’s duct system or by direct contact while visiting the microbiology corridor one floor above.

 

 

 

Different types of vaccine

Smallpox vaccines produced and successfully used during the intensified eradication program are called first generation vaccines in contrast to smallpox vaccines developed at the end of the eradication phase or thereafter and produced by modern cell culture techniques.

 

Second generation smallpox vaccines use the same smallpox vaccine strains employed for manufacture of first generation vaccines or clonal virus variants plaque purified from traditional vaccine stocks,

 

whereas third generation smallpox vaccines represent more attenuated vaccine strains specifically developed as safer vaccines at the end of the eradication phase by further passage in cell culture or animals. Second and third generation vaccines are produced using modern cell culture techniques and current standards of Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP).

 

https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/vaccines/en/

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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anyway

Cutting through

 

please confirm your stance is:

 

1.

Smallpox is just one thing, we have a 'cure' and its gone forever (apart from 2 declared labs (and maybe one alleged other lab at most))

Even if it isn't gone forever, we have the cure for the one virus which doesn't change/mutate

 

2.

People haven't got Coronavirus if they are clear of symptoms for 6 days?

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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“Variola may have been introduced to humans through such a cross-species transfer” “It is closest in DNA sequence to camelpox virus, which causes smallpox-like disease in camels; both viruses are apparently descended from a recent common ancestor.”

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/38/6/882/321153

On 24/01/2020 at 09:31, tobyjugg2 said:

 

Sars type incubation period is 5-14 days with the CDC saying (as info increases)

 

" The median incubation period for secondary cases associated with limited human-to-human transmission is approximately 5 days (*range* 2-14 days).

 

In MERS-CoV patients, the *** median *** time from illness onset to hospitalization is approximately 4 days."

 

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/mers_middle_east_respiratory_syndrome/article.htm

 

 

To re-read.

Frankly anyone who thinks the WHO, CDC and UK Gov recommendation of 14 days is anything other than a sensible minimum, is a dangerous idiot IMO, particularly given the apparent extremely fast mutation rate being reported ...  and ability to jump species

 

 

 

 

Mutation of Smallpox

**********************

  "Clinical descriptions indicate that smallpox always had a high case-fatality rate until around the end of the 19th Century, when a more benign form of the disease, with a similar rash but much lower mortality rate, appeared in the Western Hemisphere.

Less lethal types of smallpox were also noted in Africa, where they may have existed for some time [5]. These milder variants are now designated “variola minor,” in contrast to the traditional “variola major.”

The genetic changes responsible for attenuation have not been identified.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/38/6/882/321153

 

Interestingly cowpox was used as a relatively effective ‘vaccine’ against smallpox,

and monkeypox seems to be ‘expanding’ to fill the nasty nitch that smallpox existed in.

Note That although smallpox and monkeypox are often talked about in the same breath, and are often considered closely related, despite monkeypox, camelpox and Cowpox vaccines’ effectiveness against smallpox and each other, the genetics of smallpox and monkeypox have been examined and they are not believed to be actually genetically ‘related’.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox

 

On the other hand Camelpox and Smallpox on more recent examination are believed to be VERY closely related:

“Variola may have been introduced to humans through such a cross-species transfer” (like Coronavirus)

It (smallpox) is closest in DNA sequence to camelpox virus, which causes smallpox-like disease in camels;

***** both viruses are apparently descended from a recent common ancestor.

"The appearance of variola minor may represent a stage in variola's adaptation to its human host."

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/38/6/882/321153


 

 

 

Possible sources of fresh smallpox outbreaks

************************************************

Lots of references say things like smallpox has been ‘entirely eliminated from the world’ when it clearly still exists. ‘Eradicated’ should be qualified as being ‘from the living human poplation. Even whether ‘carriers’ exist is unknown.

 

* ‘Officially’ (WHO approved) in 2 labs - which means little to weapons programs or nature itself - Accidents and misplacing links already supplied.

 

* Unofficially it is claimed to be held in other bio-weapons labs: Just two links of many:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_biological_weapons_program

https://www.news-medical.net/health/Smallpox-Biological-Warfare.aspx

 

* Animal hosts and species jumping of genetically similar Virus like Camelpox.

 

* thousands of Inuit infected bodies across the melting areas of the melting Northern ice and peat bogs and tar pits around the world.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/01/24/575974220/are-there-zombie-viruses-in-the-thawing-permafrost?t=1580114743932

 

 

in the summer of 2016 a large anthrax outbreak struck Siberia.

"A heat wave in the Arctic thawed a thick layer of the permafrost, and a bunch of reindeer carcasses started to warm up. The animals had died of anthrax, and as their bodies thawed, so did the bacteria. Anthrax spores spread across the tundra. Dozens of people were hospitalized, and a 12-year-old boy died.

 

On the surface, it looked as if zombie anthrax had somehow come back to life after being frozen for 70 years. What pathogen would be next? Smallpox? The 1918 flu?"

 

 

 

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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I dont claim to be a virologist, although I do very clearly understand what mean, mode, median and range mean. Perhaps look them up?

.

 

Perhaps also take up your 'expert' opinion with medicinet which I quite clearly quoted from my first reference, and was one of a number of the less technical and more readable reputable sources (linked) I used to base my opinion and statements:

 

" The median incubation period for secondary cases associated with limited human-to-human transmission is approximately 5 days (*range* 2-14 days)."

 

Perhaps also offer your 'expert' opinion to WHO, CDC and the UK government who seem to agree with the link?

Particularly given what any of the reported rapid mutations might result in which makes that stated range in any way impossible or at least beyond reasoned expectation .... rather than quite the opposite?

... you being such an expert on mutation and all ... despite clearly NOT being a Catherine Thèves

....... because despite not being a virologist, I knew - but still confirmed - that ALL Virus mutate albeit at different rates..

 

 

and look at the links for the weapons labs and history and the references they summarise.

You will see the 2nd Russian weapons lab mentioned. Following links should be simple for an expert in the field, and only takes a short time.

Just follow the links (and not to conspiracy nutters like Alex Jones) and you will see also see other Labs and references. I did clearly state 'reported' not 'authorised'

 

 

and regarding the smallpox/cowpox vaccines used across the centuries ...

You seem to be missing the simple fact that the various vaccines were updated from live samples right up until its 'eradication'

Perhaps look up the latest studies on modern examination of historic smallpox to map its types and paths..

Catherine Thèves is a good place to start ....

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Share on other sites

clarification

Perhaps look up the latest studies on modern examination of historic smallpox to attempt to map its types and paths..

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Share on other sites

So lets look at your one link (I think) apart from some recent news reports from China

 

My statements are as defined by WHO, the CDC etc etc based on the experiences they had in managing and investigating prior similar outbreaks like MERS and SARS

 

... gets my vote

 

 

Yours references appear based on a reputable source

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

 

BUT - what actually is it?

 

I've scanned through two the two latest reports and it certainlt seems to be a mathematical modelling exercise (standard deviation etc) on the current outbreak based on the limited information currently available.

 

Absolutely a worthy and essential goal that undoubtedly will add to our knowledge of the progress of these sort of outbreaks

It MIGHT even update the processes and procedures already in place some time in the future, or it might simply confirm them.

 

 

But is is accurate or anything other at present?

From the LATEST updated report 3 - their own words quoted.

 

"For our baseline estimates, we assume that two key characteristics of 2019-nCoV are similar to those observed for SARS

 

that there is high  level of variability  in the number of new infections generated by each infectious individual 

 

and that the  generation time (the  average time between generations of infection)  is  the same as was estimated for SARS (mean of  8.4  days  [3])"

 

 

 

"we also generate estimates assuming 1000 or 9700 cases by 18th January, the lower and upper bounds of the uncertainty range around our
central estimate of 4000 cases by that date."

(a 10 fold spread in the estimates)

 

 

How accurate have these guess-timations you quote here proven to be (in their own words)?

" The  uncertainty range is 1,000-9,700, reflecting the many continuing unknowns involved in deriving these estimates. Our central estimate of 4,000 is more than double our past estimates, a result of the increase of the number of cases detected outside mainland China "

 

 

So yes I do understand them, and will stick with the CDC/WHO figures thank you

 

 

 

 

oh and of course a Russian spook selling a book - which I admit to NOT having read

- I did say not Alex Jones

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BazzaS said:

2) I still don’t believe there are 3 authorised labs holding smallpox stocks.

Which 3 labs? (You may find that it was always 2 authorised labs, even if it was stock transferred from one to a different one in the USSR, only ever 2 at any one time), but still waiting on you clarifying which 3 so I can see if that is the explanation for your mistaken belief.

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

and look at the links for the weapons labs and history and the references they summarise.

You will see the 2nd Russian weapons lab mentioned. Following links should be simple for an expert in the field, and only takes a short time.

Just follow the links (and not to conspiracy nutters like Alex Jones) and you will see also see other Labs and references. I did clearly state 'reported' not 'authorised'

 

 

 

 

... Repeatedly

.... You even quoted it - but clearly didn't actually read it on any of the occasions.

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

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Share on other sites

LOL

 

So you must have read and studied your quoted sources more than I did,

even though you clearly haven't looked at the very specific, totally relevant and highly reputable links I supplied, especially regarding:

the time range (No1 most important) of infection

and mutation - 2 min types of smallpox + sub types (eg haemorrhagic) and recent single predecessor of Smallpox and Camelpox per (linked) DNA analysis ...

 

Anyway

What I saw at your link seemed more an analysis of the effectiveness of the Chinese management of the outbreak than anything .......

that IS a personal interpretation .. but based on the sort of analysis and what they were looking at

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

Link to post
Share on other sites

Its a difficult question HB,

But from mers/sars coronavirus advice - contact with bodily fluids which are either directly (sneezes coughs)  or indirectly (surfaces soon after touched/sneezed on by infected person) then transferred to absorption areas like mouth, nasal or eyes.

 

So the Chinese type face masks and I can understand the eye goggles

- along with meticulous cleaning of the hands as we all regularly poke our mouths, noses and eyes without realising it.

 

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670115003679

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26597631/

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

Link to post
Share on other sites

A thorough scrub with warm soapy water is surprisingly effective in many areas

 

"Dr David Carrington, of St George’s, University of London, told BBC News that “routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air”, because they were too loose, had no air filter and left the eyes exposed.

Masks could, however, help lower the risk of contracting a virus through the “splash” from a sneeze or a cough and offer some protection against hand-to-mouth transmissions, he said."

" The consensus appears to be that wearing a mask can limit – but not eliminate – the risks, provided they are used correctly. That means securing them over the mouth, chin and nose, using the bendable metal strip at the top to keep it snug against the contours of the nose. "

 

and especially:

"WHO experts advise against wearing gloves on the basis that hand-washing is more important and people wearing gloves are less likely to wash their hands. "

 

Who's (sic) seen their own kids with silver streaks embedded in their mits ?

 

  • Like 1

As he waded through the empty bottles and platters of sandwiches pouring out more drinks,

he didn’t realise it was a party - even when he was ambushed by cake and ate it

 

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar" 

"a liar and a charlatan debasing the office of Prime Minister”

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

 

Knowledge has only two enemies: Ignorance and lies

Link to post
Share on other sites

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