Mutating Corona Virus

[unclebulgaria67]

If the UK Government gets its stategy wrong of wanting to get back to normal without masks or social distancing, we could see daily Covid rates hit very levels.  With more people having the need to be treated in hospital and more people dying,  Government would have no choice but to have lockdowns where required. 

 

I am seeing more people now commuting into offices and with schools back, I predict that by the end of September, the numbers won't look very good. Get ready for lockdown in October a week or two before the school half term which is around the end of October. With a lockdown of 2 to 3 weeks during October, the hope will be that the NHS will be in a better place to cope during the Winter.   And the government will introduce mask wearing and social distancing again for a period.

[tobyjugg2]

HT

I have zero doubts the vaccination program was worthwhile - although could and should have been better.

The information was all there (as linked)

 

More the fall off in anti-bodies than longer between jabs - hence more Israelis had 2nd jab longer ago and a coresponding drop off in anti-body first defense levels - hence the third booster jab, a quite subtle difference in perspective, but an important one for defining 'issues I think. Also consider that the Israeli's came out of lockdowns sooner than us based on their visible successes.

* Also be aware that Israels testing regime is far more 'capable/wide ranging than ours so will catch more infections.

 

HT

You yourself noted that anti-body levels increased dramatically after the second dose - and that was also seen in the trials at the recommended intervals

 

The stretching of the period between vaccinations was almost certainly purely based on availability and getting more first doses in

- and as such was a right choice IMO - and perhaps the easiest available option hence a prime contender.

We now know that (up to 50%) smaller (particularly booster) doses is and was another option which apparently wasn't properly investigated.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Also Consider that 73-76% inoculation/infection generated 'immunity' was touted as  'herd immunity' level by some touting the myth of covid 'herd immunity' and still being touted by some

We are now at 80+% 'fully inoculated adults and almost 90% single inoculated adults according to coronavirus.data.gov.uk

PLUS all the infections ...

... with cases rising significantly

[honeybee13]

Didn't the herd immunity percentage figure go up after the delta variant appeared?

[hightail]

12 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

You yourself noted that anti-body levels increased dramatically after the second dose - and that was also seen in the trials at the recommended intervals

They did but what is maybe more interesting was the tests I did at twelve weeks post first dose and around four months (maybe more) post second.  Most recent was only a couple of weeks ago and although antibody levels are not as high as they were four weeks after the second dose they are still at a comfortingly adequate level - about a 25% drop.

[hightail]

12 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

The stretching of the period between vaccinations was almost certainly purely based on availability and getting more first doses in

- and as such was a right choice IMO - and perhaps the easiest available option hence a prime contender.

It was the right choice as it turns out.  I'm just thinking there seem to have been further benefits which were not forseen, more luck than judgement maybe. 

[tobyjugg2]

45 minutes ago, hightail said:

It was the right choice as it turns out.

 

A right choice, based on availability

A better choice based on information that was available (simply including the trial information that 50% doses gave almost as much protection) + vaccine availability may well have been to have smaller doses at the recommended intervals which would have allowed more vaccinations from the same amount of vaccine with a speedier generation of high levels of anti-bodies

 

 

 

52 minutes ago, hightail said:

They did but what is maybe more interesting was the tests I did at twelve weeks post first dose and around four months (maybe more) post second.  Most recent was only a couple of weeks ago and although antibody levels are not as high as they were four weeks after the second dose they are still at a comfortingly adequate level - about a 25% drop.

 

See prior links

Each persons reactions depend on the vaccine used and health-age-immune system-other interactions with covid/similar virii-other infections boosting immune and practicing/preparing immune systems/ (eh the Reporting that those with flu jabs and MMR (and other) vaccination appeared to give peoples immune systems a better chance of fighting covid)

Your drop appears to be at the low end of reported fall off which is great for you -

- those with compromised immunes for example (per already linked reports) may not have got ANY significant antibodies with 2 doses - but are with the third - again depending on what medication they were on at the time among other things

Just as pretty much everyone - even immune compromised had (re)boosted anti-body levels with a third dose 4/6 months+ after the second as already referred

 

12 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Didn't the herd immunity percentage figure go up after the delta variant appeared?

 

Yes - over 97% 'immunisation' level requirements was reported as needed,

I showed/linked the math which clearly showed it had already gone over 100% vaccination/immunised (which is over 97% sic) - daft but the well defined and tested math allows that for a number of reasons

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

59 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Your drop appears to be at the low end of reported fall off which is great for you

Do you have a link to the study TJ?  I would be interested in the numbers.

[brassnecked]

So where does this leave the tiny minority of medically unable to have a vaccine, due to previous allergic reation, jab and die or no jab and isolate?

[hightail]

Isn't that the idea of herd immunity?  Those who can get vaccinated do so to protect both themselves and those who can't.

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, hightail said:

Do you have a link to the study TJ?  I would be interested in the numbers.

 

I'm Sure I already linked Lancet, bmj and israeli reports .. which contained links to the supporting studies

Didnt you read them?

 

Nothing I'm aware of in any valid detail from UK sources inc Oxford other than bmj

[tobyjugg2]

Sounds a bit brusk I know,but understand I have built that understanding almost exclusively with links here

 

For example That pfiser antibodies start off higher and fall off (generally) slower than O/AZ jabbed

- understanding and accepting the evidence for that before you question with a prove to me the individual cases - which simply aren't available

 

eg despite recent claims from O/AZ that they are 'equivalent' or some such smudge after  x months when no-one else sees that and sees something far different:

Antibody levels vary according to vaccine type and previous infection with COVID-19 | UCLH Biomedical Research Centre

WWW.UCLHOSPITALS.BRC.NIHR.AC.UK

 

 

So look here, which also defines many of the issues in the studies, BUT they are quality studies and far better than the O/AZ claims of something different from a dozen or so selected test results.

 

Large-scale study of antibody titer decay following BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 infection

WWW.MEDRXIV.ORG

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medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences

 

[unclebulgaria67]

What a farce ! Attended an office and by lunchtime was on my way home as someone had a positive covid test, so office could be subject to deep clean. 

 

This type of situation is happening around the UK, because people are having to go back to work in offices while covid rates are too high.

 

[brassnecked]

Yes whole thing is farcical UB, that aircon and ventilation issue needs a solution as well

[honeybee13]

They've had all this time to prepare...

[unclebulgaria67]

Lack of qualified engineers to verify ventilation standards. Think of how many places they would need to inspect.

 

Lack of cleaners to do deep cleans when offices have to close due to covid.

 

Government are moving too quickly and will end up locking down soon, when this could have been avoided.

 

 

[honeybee13]

Well, I don't know all the technicalities but very early on in the pandemic, our own @BazzaSsaid the virus spread through droplets that we exhale when we breathe or speak. 

 

I'd like to thank Bazza again for educating me when I needed it, this has guided how OH and I have protected ourselves throughout. I remember the last time I saw my GP in person, very early on, all the doors and windows were open and air was flowing freely. 

 

Going back to ventilation, it can't have come as a surprise that it needed to be looked at in work premises, schools, etc.

[tobyjugg2]

More than half of the problem is the visible government 'messaging'

 

Relax all restrictions, no one needs to wear a mask, anyone can cram into a disco .. etc with quiet mutters and mumbles of 'don't do it though'

Can anyone wonder that some, perhaps many people really do think its all over?

.. despite even whitties simple statement -  which is being swamped, not least by his own caveating , excusing and delimiting the decision on vaccinating 12-16 yo's

 

"“Anybody who believes that the big risk of Covid is now all in the past, and it’s too late to be making a difference, has not understood where we’re going to head as we go into autumn and winter”"

 

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

After leaving the office lunchtime, I wondered down to the nearest high street shops.  All very busy with no social distancing and few masks being worn.

 

People who looked to be 70+  not wearing masks, it is a bit worrying.

 

Have the double vaccinations and encouragement from Government, made people think they are now so well protected, they will not get very ill, if they got Covid ?  

[tobyjugg2]

Over 30 million people to be offered booster jab as rollout extended to over-50s

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

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People from top nine priority groups who have been fully vaccinated for more than six months will be eligible for booster

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and dont forget to switch your darn pinger app off before crowded meetings

 

[honeybee13]

From Ian Dunt on Twitter a bit earlier today. Says it all really.

 

'We pi**ed away the summer. No attempt to get numbers down while the weather was good. No attempt to ventilate offices or schools. No support for isolation. No effort at all to get us into a better place before the cold weather arrives..

[tobyjugg2]

Just cant resist it

Fake Bo**ocks stays up despite Twitters covid misinformation rules

 

False 'swollen testicles' tweet stays up despite misinformation rules

WWW.EURONEWS.COM

---

We're almost two years into the COVID-19 pandemic and disinformation remains rife on social media.

 

Twitter clearly finding Minajs' undoubtedly self promoting bo**ocks just too much of a handful to handle

 

 

Didnt know who she was, still dont and certainly dont want to know

Lets hope any future career is now tied to GB news (check the initials)

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

9 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

From Ian Dunt on Twitter a bit earlier today. Says it all really.

 

'We pi**ed away the summer. No attempt to get numbers down while the weather was good. No attempt to ventilate offices or schools. No support for isolation. No effort at all to get us into a better place before the cold weather arrives..

Everything I find on past pandemics (Ancient civilisations through to Spanish flu) indicates that they last for three years. I don't have access to anything special, only documentaries etc. but it does seem to be a constant.  We may think of ourselves as better than previous generations/civilisations and we do have access to so much more science and technology but although we can stop so many diseases now, once one gets hold seems it will run the course no matter what.

[honeybee13]

We seem to have another glitch that means posts are being duplicated. If I see one on here, I'll delete the duplicate.