Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

So the experts not only cant read their own 'area of expertise' stats, they don't understand a glaring issue which should raise a huh? in anyone with even basic knowledge?

 

and despite vaccine 'hesitancy' along with vaccine availability being the great issue of the moment, someone who should know better x2 makes a frankly stupid, incorrect and immensely damaging comment like 'kids having the vaccine will do more harm than good'

... which the anti-vaxers will leap on quoting 'jvci say more harm than good from vaccinations' ...

 

Well publicised Sack the Prat to limit fallout is my opinion

 

.. but of course, Johnson doesn't sack incompetent liability prats does he - he promotes them.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Here's Deepti Gurdasani's Twitter thread on why she doesn't agree with the JCVI's reasoning on 12-15s being vaccinated.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

From that thread:

1269 unvaccinated English kids hospitalised with Covid in August.

1164 in July.

On heart inflammation, risk from Covid infection is far higher than risk from vaccination. https://nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475?articleTools=true

What are you seeing that we aren't seeing?

 

so how many people have been hospitalised from covid vaccinations in England?

 

 

Not inoculating kids which will be in close proximity for lengthy periods (rather like adults being in pubs/restaurants etc) only makes sense if generating infection spread aka herd immunity - which is NOT in any way a realistic possibility and never has been since the first coronavirus mutation

 

Edited September 6, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

I'll just reiterate my perspective and understanding:

 

Vaccination reduces the risk of severe illness and death by about 90%+ against the early strains, and 70-80% against the newer strains - probably less but still above 50% even against the worst of the latest ones

- LESS relevant to kids, but there is still some benefit, especially in priming their immune systems against coronavirus, and still FAR outweighs any identified risks. Just on that basis - 6-10x higher risk minimum with all issues from covid compared to same issues with vaccine

 

Vaccination reduces spread by 50%+ with early strains, and about 30-35% with newer strains

ANY reduction in spread with children grouped together who return home to siblings and family has got to be beneficial far beyond any pure figures and consider that just an average 50% reduction in spread halves the R number.

Masks and proper ventilation and space would at least half that again or better.

Consider the R0 for newer variants has been estimated around 7.

 

Those who are 3 months on from an O/AZ jab almost certainly need a booster, less so for those who have had the pfiser,

but high anti-body levels seems to be a MUST to carry us through peak season (even though covid seems somewhat less seasonal than flu)

 

 

and I'll end with

Where TF are the newer variant vaccines for booster shots (half dose if needed) - and I dont mean new vaccines against old strains (by the time the advertised ones will be ready, delta could be history)

 

[tobyjugg2]

UK now has DOUBLE the amount of confirmed COVID cases per capita than the worst EU nation

WWW.THELONDONECONOMIC.COM

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UK now has DOUBLE the amount of confirmed COVID cases per capita than the worst EU nation - new figures reveal

 

"This government is a deadly, unrelenting disgrace"

Edited September 8, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Covid rates quite high for double vaccinated people over 40 !  Robert Peston has tweeted about this, suggesting that it would be sensible to wear masks and socially distances where appropriate.  I agee.

 

[tobyjugg2]

and apparently 25% of hospitalised covid cases are double vaccinated, (wonder how many still wore masks)

 

Interesting that 10% in the above chart are 'unlinked

 

 

[hightail]

On 06/09/2021 at 13:59, tobyjugg2 said:

Where TF are the newer variant vaccines for booster shots (half dose if needed) - and I dont mean new vaccines against old strains (by the time the advertised ones will be ready, delta could be history)

The lack of newer variant vaccines is exactly why I wouldn't bother with a booster even if it were offered. 

 

As for vaccinating younger children - the cynical side of me might think it's more a political decision.  Boris cannot offer it and then get lousy take up, something I think quite likely from parents worried about side effects.  Also, the suggestion that parents wishes can be ignored if a child is deemed competent to decide for themselves is laughable.  That can work both ways round so kids themselves could refuse it and any hint of coercion followed by a single heart issue would kill the programme stone dead.

[hightail]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

and apparently 25% of hospitalised covid cases are double vaccinated

How many of them are overweight or have other conditions which means the vaccine doesn't work too well?

Not saying it isn't happening but there's also the other side of the coin - my neighbours, family of five and four of them have it right now.  Oldest (47), obese but working on it and much fitter than a year ago, had two days of aching ribs and a sore throat and now feels as if she has a slight head cold.  Next, (45) has a cough but hasn't felt ill though is tired.  16 year old not ill but tired and 7 year old completely symptomless.  I'd say the vaccine has done its job for the adults in that family.  Four cases has really screwed the 'per 100k' figures for my village area mind you and that could easily frighten some.

Edited September 12, 2021 by hightail

[tobyjugg2]

Yes, one of the test samples indicates that extra fat around organs means more likelihood of severe covid

- but more fat around organs generally means poorer health and weaker immune system - although there are undoubtedly exceptions as there is in most things.

 

But turning your speculative (albeit likely) question/posit around, there actually are many many severe cases of covid reported in people who were  considered  fit and healthy.

 

but the immediate real thing is, people who are obese need time to address that, and should - if they can

Wearing a mask takes a second - and they can.

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

Given how new these vaccines are and we don't really know how long they provide a good level of protection for, I would say mask wearing, using hand sanitiser regularly and social distancing

are wise precautions.

 

I personally will avoid large indoor gatherings and only attend these wearing a mask if I had no choice.

 

 

[honeybee13]

Gabriel Scally has some thoughts on how to protect everyone in this. I think the importance of good ventilation is being overlooked, especially in schools and offices.

 

The winter Covid plan will be marked by delay, confusion and ignorance. Sound familiar? | Gabriel Scally | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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We now know so much more about the virus. But we are failing to act on the knowledge

 

[unclebulgaria67]

 Ventilation standards are a massive issue.

 

I have come across situations where the systems in place are not up to the latest standards required.

 

In one case a facilities management company signed off a room as meeting the required standard and when it was inspected again two months later, it was found that it did not have the required level of ventilation.

 

This is one of the problems we will see. As businesses rushed to reopen buildings to staff and the public, they wanted quick assessments done on their ventilation systems. So they invented tick box forms for their engineers to indicate yes or no to a list of questions. This was not a proper assessment and buildings have been signed off as meeting the required standard when they don't.

 

I would be very cautious about going to any office or shop during peak time.

 

If you work in any office or shop, ask your Trade Union H&S rep or employers for a copy of their ventilation standards report. They should have had the ventilation system checked to ensure it complies with required standards.

 

 

[brassnecked]

The ventilation issue, is definitely going to be a major problem what is the position with aircon and filtration in the glass offices with non opening windows?

[tobyjugg2]

Situation with air-con V covid in all offices .. and schools? - Pretty desperate seems to me.

 

"We’re the second highest number of infections of any country in the world after the United States, we’re seeing hospitalisations rise by about 5% every week, there are 1,000 new deaths every single week, we’ve got 1,000 people on ventilators across the country."

- Richard Horton - Editor-in-chief The Lancet

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

@brassnecked Mechanical ventilation standards will have to be checked.

 

And when it is inspected, don't presume that because it is supposed to be of a high standard that the air filters will be of a required standard.

 

Have come across a real example, where an office had one of the highest standards of air con and ventilation, but a company had cut costs, but installing cheap filters. A bit like a Ferrari being fitted with parts from a Fiat Panda.

 

My recommendation is to request a proper inspection of ventilation standards, not just a tick box form.  Make sure it is signed by an engineer with the required qualifications and they certify that the offices meet with REHVA 2020 standards.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

mmm - terminated for breaching 'supply agreement obligations' which claim valneva strenuously denies

I see this as first warnings of yet another major storm ..

 

UK cancels Covid vaccine deal with French firm Valneva | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Government serves notice to terminate contract over allegations of a ‘breach of obligations’

 

 

Valneva share price plummets after UK government terminates contract : CityAM

WWW.CITYAM.COM

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The UK government has terminated a supply agreement with the French-Austrian vaccine company, Valneva, over an alleged breach of contract.

 

Valneva says UK terminates Covid vaccine supply deal - France 24

WWW.FRANCE24.COM

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Valneva says UK terminates Covid vaccine supply deal

 

Valneva share price plummets after UK government terminates contract : CityAM

WWW.CITYAM.COM

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The UK government has terminated a supply agreement with the French-Austrian vaccine company, Valneva, over an alleged breach of contract.

 

What is the Valneva vaccine? Is it made in Livingston? Why has the UK Government severed its Covid-19 supply agreement? | Edinburgh News

WWW.EDINBURGHNEWS.SCOTSMAN.COM

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French vaccine maker Valneva has announced that the UK Government has severed its supply agreement for a new Scottish-produced coronavirus...

 

"The contract provides HMG with the right to terminate. HMG has alleged that the company is in breach of its obligations under the supply agreement, but the company strenuously denies this."

The company added: “Valneva has worked tirelessly, and to its best efforts, on the collaboration with Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) including investing significant resources and effort to respond to HMG’s requests for variant-derived vaccines."

 

COVID-19 – VLA2001 – Valneva

VALNEVA.COM

 

Edited September 13, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

2 hours ago, brassnecked said:

The ventilation issue, is definitely going to be a major problem what is the position with aircon and filtration in the glass offices with non opening windows?

I'd say it's of prime importance.  Going back to my real world experience with my neighbours, the first member of the family to be infected was the mum who had started a new job as a teaching assistant the previous week.  We run a 5k together every Sunday  and that Sunday (4 or 5 days post new job start) she said she didn't feel up to a serious run and we walked it instead.  Obviously if we'd even suspected Covid we wouldn't have gone at all but it never crossed our minds.  Tuesday she sent me a text to say she'd tested +ve for Covid.  Point is I spent almost an hour walking and chatting with her, not exactly shoulder to shoulder but probably not 6ft apart at all times.  I've tested every day since and I'm fine.  I can only put that down to being out in the fresh air and moving constantly ie as we were walking we were never breathing in the same air we'd just breathed out. 

Edited September 13, 2021 by hightail

[tobyjugg2]

Talking about miss-presenting 'facts

 

Who can see why this is almost as bad as BrEx-press misrepresenting facts?

Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of England’s Covid-19 deaths | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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ONS figures show 51,281 Covid deaths between January and July, with 458 dying at least 21 days after second dose

 

The facts are true, but how they are miss-representing real world ..

 

So who can see it?

 

[honeybee13]

I'm not sure what you're saying here.

[honeybee13]

I know this isn't a direct comparison, but this is the French figures. Guillaume Rozier is a data scientist who's quoted a lot in the press in the UK and France and his figures are worked out from government data.

 

According to the graph on his Twitter feed, non-vaccinated people [orange] make up 80% of hospital admissions, partly vaccinated 5% and totally vaccinated are at 15%. The figures on the left are for the percentage of the population that's vaccinated or not.

 

[honeybee13]

He's also worked out that non-vaccinated 20-39 year olds were 47 times more likely to be hospitalised than people of the same age who are vaccinated, according to the latest figures on the rise in cases.

 

5 fois pour les 0-19 ans

47 fois pour les 20-39 ans

44 fois pour les 40-59 ans

30 fois pour les 60-79 ans

11 fois pour les plus de 80 ans

[tobyjugg2]

"Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of England’s Covid-19 deaths"

- present tense implying current situation

 

"ONS figures show 51,281 Covid deaths between January and July, with 458 dying at least 21 days after second dose"

- justification - past figures with the latest almost two months ago

 

"Of the total Covid-related deaths, 458 (about 0.9%) were of people who died at least 21 days after their second vaccine dose. Just 256 deaths (0.5%) were of people who were fully vaccinated and had their first positive PCR test at least 14 days after their second dose."

- Linking the two and implying that vaccination reduces chance of death to 1.2%

 

to understand, start with:

- so how many people had received both (or even one) dose(s) of vaccine in Jan Feb March or April (four of the seven months included) for instance?

 

The headline statement, although 'true as far as it goes - is largely not only meaningless - but misleading

 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

It needs someone independent like Guillaume Rozier to dissect it, doesn't it, TJ?

[hightail]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

The headline statement, although 'true as far as it goes - is largely not only meaningless - but misleading

I agree but the headline is written by journalists and the figures quoted in the article are true.  I also agree that figures for the following months will be more indicative of true vaccine efficacy though I really doubt they'll show vaccination wasn't worthwhile.

 

We also seem to be faring better than some other well vaccinated countries against the Delta variant.  Is this because we left a longer gap between doses?  I was so impressed with Israel's vaccination programme but now wonder if our 8-12 weeks between jabs has given better protection.